There's reality and then there's what once was reality.  This is a big part of why there is a debate about this.

It would be hard to argue that there were GW teams under three different coaches who would have no business losing to some of the programs we've lost to.  The fact that this has been going on during each year of the JC era lends a cumulative effect to all of this but even if you separate out this year from the previous two, it would be mind boggling to picture a Jarvis team or the more successful Hobbs and Lonergan teams ever losing to UMASS-Lowell or BU at the Smith Center. 

The reality is that we are not a top 100 program or anything resembling this.  So losing to Fullerton or Kent State or Charlotte are perhaps understandable when viewed in a vacuum.  When we were a top 100 program, it would be inconceivable losing to these schools.  This leads to an important distinction...the difference between understanding reality and either accepting it or even worse, becoming complacent with it.  Those who believe we are playing a terrible OOC schedule do not want to accept the status quo as reality.  They want to believe we are better than this, because we once were.   Count me in this camp.

The only thing worse than losing at home to Radford tonight would be to shrug my shoulders after witnessing it and saying "oh well.  Lost another one." 

That seems a bit disingenuous as well.  Below are the worse home OOC losses for year three of Hobbs, ML and Mojo:

Hobbs:  Didn't lose at home
ML:  Didn't lose at home
Mojo:  Valpo (220), Siena (267) - Was fired after the season
JC:  UMass - Lowell (233), BU (154) - (Home games against 259 & 339 left)

[Edit:  Before Kenpom numbers, Penders lost to Richmond (CAA) & PC at home in his third year (was fired) and Jarvis didn't lose at home.]

Last edited by BM (12/13/2021 11:26 am)

Gwmayhem wrote:

I did not suggest that it never happened.  It's far more understandable when you're primarily playing underclassmen as was the case with many of the KH and ML losses.

But if you really want to look at results that are not pretty, take a look at JC's winning percentage in OOC games where his teams were favored to win over these first three years, and then compare them to KH's or ML's winning percentage in OOC games where their teams were favored to win.   It will not be close.  Then, look at JC's upset victories in those OOC games and do the same comparison. 

Make sure to not stop at BU and UMASS-Lowell.  Let's also factor in American, Morgan State, Hampton, William & Mary and Charlotte, all losses at home.  Might as well throw in road losses at Towson, Navy and this year's two California games where there's a great chance we may have been favored in each.

For what it's worth, your comment really misses the point of my post which was not to revisit bad losses.  The post had far more to do with understanding that today's reality is different than yesterday's, and that being complacent or even accepting of this, while certainly one's prerogative, is difficult to those who have higher standards for this program.  And by higher standards, I am not referring to making NCAA tournaments right now.  Simply winning games we should win is a good place to start since we've been unable to consistently meet even this modest goal. 

Final point...I am really rooting for this program but I have to say...your familiar "let's just see" retort is getting very old.  We heard it a lot during each of JC's first two years.  What we see this year is likely to be what we've seen the first two seasons.  A very crappy OOC followed by an A10 season where they play incredibly well on a few occasions leaving us all to wonder why the team can't be more consistent.  My ceiling for this team was to play in the 8-9 game and yes, I would be very impressed by this.  Better than this would be a huge achievement.  Worse than this and it's we pulled a handful of upsets but when combined with the OOC results, it's a disappointing season.  That all said, I'm hopeful we've begun to see a bit of a turnaround against Coppin State and that more cohesive team play becomes the rule and not the exception.

Your thing about comparing games “they were favored to win” made me literally laugh out loud!

Talk about grading on a curve - it’s like you are saying, ‘so what if we stink and oddsmakers expect little from us, but what matters is how well we meet those low expectations!’

I know you are trying to say that JC loses more often as a favorite, but it’s still a hilarious way to cherry-pick data.

The reason I say wait until the end of this year is because while you all assume this is year 3, I look at it as year 2. You can talk all you want about the COViD year but if you do, you really have no understanding about what happened here at GW. You can use the intellectually dishonest "everyone dealt with COVID" but no everyone did not deal with COVID to the same extent. GW had some of the most draconian living and practice rules both institutionally and jurisdictionally in the entire nation. GW also dealt with the Capitol incident which forced the team to relocate. GW also had mid-year player defections of not one but two starters. GW also had a player hospitalized with cardiac complications. GW practices were shut down mid-season for weeks at a time twice. You can say those are all excuses but those are also facts. I promise you no one not even America's Greatest Coach would have thrived under those circumstances.

So to me this is really like JC's second year. 

That said, the team does need to show progress the remainder of the year. But progress is not defined as to what occurs on or before December 13th. Time to wait until March and then have the discussion as to whether we are on the right path. We have at least 21 scheduled games left - a lot can and will happen. There will be plenty of time for discussion/analysis of whatever happens later. 

 

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

You have no idea how much I hope you are right, GW Rising, but I disagree with this being the 2nd year.   It is the 6th year of mediocrity and disappointment, and although I don't profess to speak for the entire fan base, I can say that as a 50 year follower of the team, this has been horrible.   As for the coach itself, doesn't his response to the question as to why we are so bad in the second half of games give you any concerns about his ability to turn things around?
I have always considered by self an open minded (albeit somewhat emotionally unstable) fan...tell us again what we should like about what we have seen so far from the coach?   

JC can't be charged with what happened before him. He is responsible only for what has happened since he got here. The fact that you say this is the sixth season may be true for you but not for JC. Not fair to pin either what happened to ML or the Mojo years to him. 

As to his response, JC is a straight shooter but I think part of what he said was being a little facetious to make the point that they are aware and are trying to find any solution that will work. Since I speak to him regularly, I know he understands that this has to get fixed and soon. There should be no doubt about that.

I am scratching my head at this thread - so many false assumptions. 
Anyone can use numbers to justify any position they may have.
Rising, let's not count ML's 1st season because he was stuck with a bunch of sub-par players from Hobb's who didn't fit in with the system he was implementing (except for Kopriva who was an AE level talent brought in for his leadership and character, not his talent). Therefore, ML did his miraculous turn-around in YEAR 2. Hobbs and other coach's can make the same argument.

We currently SUCK, are and have been in the 200's for the last 2 years and should beat teams like Radford, BU, UMASS-Lowell and all the other low-majors we play on a consistent basis.

Lets all hope we get another 2 wins against Radford and UMES before we start playing some good teams in conference to get a little confidence.