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10/27/2021 1:09 pm  #1


GW's A10 Forecasts

Coaches and Writers:  13th
KenPom: 13th
BartTorvik:  13th

 

 

10/27/2021 1:33 pm  #2


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

Fri the 13th must be the Dude's favorite movie.

 

10/27/2021 1:42 pm  #3


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

Lindy's        9th
basketballarticles.com        9th
Three Man Weave            11th
Blue Ribbon                      12th


Therefore, not really a consensus on 13th, is it?

 

10/27/2021 1:45 pm  #4


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

Fake news by the dude! Say it ain't so.

 

10/27/2021 2:08 pm  #5


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

Man would Ira Lee make a difference!  If 13 is our new number success to me will be playing hard with cohesion meaning they MIGHT not be pushovers. What will upset me is no defense, no rebounding, no ball movement and lots of turnovers.

I like Jamion. I think GW is under resourced compared to the rest of the A-10. I am mindful of things beyond his control that make his job hard. But starting with 2018 (yes I know Jamion started in 2019) I haven't liked the style or quality of play of the men. So far Jamion has not shown that rarest of skills. The ability to maximize the talent he has. In particular GW doesn't  defend or take care of the ball.

Now maybe I'm simply not remembering well; if so fire away.
 

 

10/27/2021 2:41 pm  #6


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

Writers and Coaches coming in at 13th, confirming the 2 most respected data based sites, also 13th.

Perhaps we surprise these 13th in league forecasts.
 

     Thread Starter
 

10/27/2021 2:52 pm  #7


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

FredD wrote:

Man would Ira Lee make a difference!  If 13 is our new number success to me will be playing hard with cohesion meaning they MIGHT not be pushovers. What will upset me is no defense, no rebounding, no ball movement and lots of turnovers.

I like Jamion. I think GW is under resourced compared to the rest of the A-10. I am mindful of things beyond his control that make his job hard. But starting with 2018 (yes I know Jamion started in 2019) I haven't liked the style or quality of play of the men. So far Jamion has not shown that rarest of skills. The ability to maximize the talent he has. In particular GW doesn't  defend or take care of the ball.

Now maybe I'm simply not remembering well; if so fire away.
 

Fred you are remembering quite well.

Looking at Ortg, which is the number of points produced per 100 possessions, we've gone from 12th to 10th last season.  Not great, but we can at least say there's been improvement year over year.  We were dead last in this category in Mojo's last year.

Looking at Drtg, which is the number of points given up per 100 possessions, we've gone from 13th to 12th. JC's defensive rankings are actually WORSE than Mojo's last year when we finished 11th.  This is very disappointing given JC's reputation of "mayhem."

Rebounding we've improved from 12th to 8th last year.

Turnovers a little better from 11th to 9th.  But worse than Mojo's last year when we were 7th.

I think defense clearly has been the most disappointing part of the early JC tenure.  Until we can become a top half defensive team in the A10, we really can't compete unless our offense becomes so efficient we can withstand giving up > 100 points per 100 possessions.  For example, the 15-16 NIT team had a Drtg over 100 but our Ortg was 111.

For reference, historically top defenses in the A-10 have a Drtg of 95 and lower.
 

Last edited by GW0509 (10/27/2021 3:32 pm)

 

10/27/2021 3:23 pm  #8


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

Exactly GW0509.  Two key contributors:

1) Last year's zone defense.  Quite honestly one of the worst played defenses I can ever recall seeing.  It was eventually (and smartly) abandoned and rightfully so.

2) In JC's last two seasons at MSM, his team ranked 4th and 11th in the country n defensive possessions where his team pressed.  At Siena, this dropped to 48th in the country.   This fell to 139th in JC's first season at GW, and rose to 84th in the country last year.  In real numbers, when ranked 4th,  the team pressed on 31.6% of possessions.  Last season, this was 10.5% and the year prior, it was 7.7%.

In short, the man wants to press, be disruptive, force turnovers, and create easy transition opportunities.  He has not come close to having the team to pull this off these past two years.  Does he today?  I think he thinks he does.

 

10/27/2021 3:31 pm  #9


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

The Dude wrote:

Writers and Coaches coming in at 13th, confirming the 2 most respected data based sites, also 13th.

Perhaps we surprise these 13th in league forecasts.
 

By finishing ... 12th?
Hard not to overachieve when you're picked next to last. Sounded better when KH was saying it. 

 

10/27/2021 5:33 pm  #10


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

Gwmayhem wrote:

Exactly GW0509.  Two key contributors:

1) Last year's zone defense.  Quite honestly one of the worst played defenses I can ever recall seeing.  It was eventually (and smartly) abandoned and rightfully so.

2) In JC's last two seasons at MSM, his team ranked 4th and 11th in the country n defensive possessions where his team pressed.  At Siena, this dropped to 48th in the country.   This fell to 139th in JC's first season at GW, and rose to 84th in the country last year.  In real numbers, when ranked 4th,  the team pressed on 31.6% of possessions.  Last season, this was 10.5% and the year prior, it was 7.7%.

In short, the man wants to press, be disruptive, force turnovers, and create easy transition opportunities.  He has not come close to having the team to pull this off these past two years.  Does he today?  I think he thinks he does.

EXACTLY Instead of unleashing Mayhem to date GW has  provided Walk In The Park!

 

10/27/2021 6:27 pm  #11


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

The Dude wrote:

Writers and Coaches coming in at 13th, confirming the 2 most respected data based sites, also 13th.

Perhaps we surprise these 13th in league forecasts.
 

Dude, that’s a lie.  The two most respected data sites are NOT forecasts.  They make that clear.  And you know that. Stop trolling.

 

10/27/2021 7:00 pm  #12


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

Using the word "lie" rather casually bub.  You're quibbling over semantics.

Good luck when the site is just you and Mailvan pal.  That's the direction things are heading, rapidly.





 

     Thread Starter
 

10/27/2021 7:50 pm  #13


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

Not sure anyone has posted link to this preview  of GW and the rest of the A-10.  We are picked for 11th, but it is noted that we probably drop to 13th without Ira Lee.

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/atlantic-10-2021-22-preview

Nice use of videos in preview. Actually, it's painful use of videos for those of us from GW. The videos are of the final seconds of the William & Mary and Charlotte games pointing out how twice with a chance to win games we couldn't get a decent shot. I had wiped those painful seconds from my memory. Obviously both times we couldn't run whatever the play JC drew up in the timeouts. What a mess. 
 

 

10/27/2021 9:24 pm  #14


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

The Dude wrote:

Using the word "lie" rather casually bub.  You're quibbling over semantics.

Good luck when the site is just you and Mailvan pal.  That's the direction things are heading, rapidly.





 

Ok. You didn’t lie.  You just deliberately posted something you know isn’t actually true in order to advance a narrative you’ve pushed repeatedly lately.   

You post some good things sometimes, but you don’t have to keep making the same posts over and over, and you don’t have to mischaracterize data to make your point.

 

10/27/2021 9:45 pm  #15


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

Mentzinger wrote:

The Dude wrote:

Writers and Coaches coming in at 13th, confirming the 2 most respected data based sites, also 13th.

Perhaps we surprise these 13th in league forecasts.
 

By finishing ... 12th?
Hard not to overachieve when you're picked next to last. Sounded better when KH was saying it. 

  Also, is this really where we want to be a) ever and b) 3 years into a coaching change?
Seems odd to want poor predictions or even think we do well by being anywhere in the bottom half of the
league.
 

 

10/27/2021 10:30 pm  #16


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

KenPom and BartTorvik are data based strength assessment sites, they use data to gauge the caliber of a team, both have GW 13th.   That is exactly how a date site forecasts a team.  Obviously. Plainly.   

There's no lie in citing those facts. Its despicable to use that word so callously and loosely, over at most a quibble about semantics.
   
Now, has the needle been moved by JC? The A10 Coaches and Writers don't think so. GW has been picked to finish 13th.   The team should be in better shape as we enter year 3 than picked 13th by writers and Coaches.    

But I remain a believer, I think the team could well surprise, but mostly you can see the ability to land the talent we need to turn this around. I know you're a believer in JC as well.

You'll likely be on your own when the site is turned into the same 1 man, propaganda campaign that has endlessly plague this fan site  "fire this guy"  which is why I felt it worthwhile to note the actual expectations.

I'm fatigued by it after so many years.  I try to spread some good will and optimism, but its become pretty pointless here.  So like I said, good luck when the board is invariably mostly you and Mailvan.  We're pretty to close that already.  

 

     Thread Starter
 

10/27/2021 11:44 pm  #17


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

Its a sad state of affairs when people are arguing over expectations, and the difference is being selected 9th or being selected 13th.  Honestly, either should be a disappointment.  I think GW should consistently shoot for being 6th in the league or higher.  Anything worse than that pretty much means we're a below average team, and there is really no point in arguing over how below average we are considered.

 

10/28/2021 6:35 am  #18


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

GW73 wrote:

Not sure anyone has posted link to this preview  of GW and the rest of the A-10.  We are picked for 11th, but it is noted that we probably drop to 13th without Ira Lee.

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/atlantic-10-2021-22-preview

Nice use of videos in preview. Actually, it's painful use of videos for those of us from GW. The videos are of the final seconds of the William & Mary and Charlotte games pointing out how twice with a chance to win games we couldn't get a decent shot. I had wiped those painful seconds from my memory. Obviously both times we couldn't run whatever the play JC drew up in the timeouts. What a mess. 
 

Those videos!!!...Forget it, Jake...It's Chinatown.
 

 

10/28/2021 9:09 am  #19


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

porter71 wrote:

Its a sad state of affairs when people are arguing over expectations, and the difference is being selected 9th or being selected 13th.  Honestly, either should be a disappointment.  I think GW should consistently shoot for being 6th in the league or higher.  Anything worse than that pretty much means we're a below average team, and there is really no point in arguing over how below average we are considered.

    Exactly. Our low expectations are a self-fulfilling prophecy and an indicator of how far we've fallen.
  Pretty hard to argue we shouldn't talk about the recent past when as Porter71 aptly points out "arguing over how below average we are are considered" is our pathetic present.

 

10/28/2021 9:14 am  #20


Re: GW's A10 Forecasts

Porter71, I understand the sentiment but realistically, I think this is one of those situations where we must first learn how to walk before we learn how to run.  A 9th place finish, particularly if the A10 turns out to have a strong year, would be a credible accomplishment in my mind.  I think it's OK to have this as a short-term goal even if the long-term goals are far loftier.

The dude, it really doesn't seem to matter how many people have a problem with what you say here.  Several have attempted to offer you advice, some even do so rather nicely.  You listen to nobody.  You've read enough times by now that these computer rankings are not meant to be construed as end-of-season forecasts.  Pomeroy flat out says that it takes about a month's worth of data (games played) before his model can even begin to approach reliability.  But, to do this, you have to slot every team somewhere so last season's results take on far more weight today than they will come March.  Just curious...do you realize this is the truth and can't stand to admit you were wrong so you keep doubling down on your erroneous point, or do you really not understand how all of this works?

Even BGF, the guy who makes it possible for all of us to share our thoughts here, asks you to abide by certain rules that you just can't seem to follow.  Less than two weeks ago, he told you that you were wrong about the people who you think have multiple handles on this site, yet you continue to infer that this is happening.  He asked you to stop referring to people by any poster name other than the one they use on this site but apparently, you can't contain yourself.

Finally, he asked that if you can't stop, you should leave the board.  Since you've become so convinced that the destiny of this board is FQ and I having conversations with one another while nobody else is left, I think it would be an interesting experiment if you were to leave the board.  We would then see whether anyone else (besides your own alternative names, you know, should you be doing this)  would also follow you.  It might even be interesting to see whether more former posters might return in your absence.

 

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