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12/06/2021 12:23 pm  #1


Strength of Schedule - OOC

I know our schedule has been derided as weak and traditionally many of these teams have been weak but this year according to the new NET rankings while we haven't played any really good teams (top 100) we also haven't played anyone in the 300 range.

Wins

Wright State 297
St. Francis PA 200

Losses

Boston University 120
Kent State 127
Missouri State 128
CS Fullerton 129
UC San Diego 130
UMass Lowell 161
Charlotte 201
Maryland 155

So our worst loss was really Saturday so far.

This is not to say we shouldn't have a much better record. Rather, just to say currently, our worst loss is to 201.

For those of you checking out what remains ...

Coppin State 283
Radford 249
UMES 189

And for the A-10

Davidson 54
St. Louis 67
VCU 72
URI 83
St. Bonaventure 88
Dayton 95
Richmond 98
UMass 125
George Mason 149
Fordham 170
St. Joseph's 211
Duquesne 267
La Salle 281

By the way, in case anyone is asking we are 281.

 

12/06/2021 12:36 pm  #2


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

Wow, so we are on par with Coppin State? I thought they would be an easy mark. Expectations must be continuously downgraded I guess. 

 

12/06/2021 1:20 pm  #3


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

This shows two things, that were and remain abundantly clear

1. The schedule wasn't that bad, a lot those teams are pretty good with small school names

2. We are a bad team, worse than almost all of our opponents (close to every single one) which was the case coming into the year. 

We need a dramatically better roster, the schedule doesn't much matter when you're bad.  This schedule was more than fine.  the roster isn't.
 

 

12/06/2021 2:24 pm  #4


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

The Dude wrote:

This shows two things, that were and remain abundantly clear

1. The schedule wasn't that bad, a lot those teams are pretty good with small school names

2. We are a bad team, worse than almost all of our opponents (close to every single one) which was the case coming into the year. 

We need a dramatically better roster, the schedule doesn't much matter when you're bad.  This schedule was more than fine.  the roster isn't.
 

I...agree with dude. Wow. That's a first. These must really be the end times

 

12/06/2021 2:30 pm  #5


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

Our resident expert stating the obvious: "we are a bad team"!

This is what our program has become with no end in sight:
1. NET ranking of 281/KENPOM of 255.
2. Our ridiculously soft schedule has become a good schedule based on how far our program has declined.
3. It used to be we couldn't get Power5 schools to schedule us because they were afraid to risk an out of conference loss to us and hurt their chances come Tourney time. Now we can't get those same teams to schedule us because even a win against such a bad team will hurt their rankings.

 

12/14/2021 11:43 am  #6


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

Here is the current resume of GW via bracketologists.com. Our schedule so far has mostly included Q3 (of which we’ve lost them all) and Q4 games.

 

12/14/2021 12:05 pm  #7


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

GW0509 wrote:

Here is the current resume of GW via bracketologists.com. Our schedule so far has mostly included Q3 (of which we’ve lost them all) and Q4 games.

Agree. This again shows we haven't played "one of the weakest schedules in the nation," Our problem is that we haven't fared well against this mediocre schedule. Schedule at 206 puts it at about 40-45 percentile range. My sole objection was aimed at exaggerating the weakness of this schedule. We've played weaker OOC schedules with better teams. Example 2005-06.

     Thread Starter
 

12/14/2021 1:45 pm  #8


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

I’d be curious how many schools have played 0 quad 1 games and only one quad  two games.  That’s probably the fewest quad 1 or 2 games we’ve played in my memory. 

That said, what matters is what the fact that we gave ZERO quad 3 or better wins, against 7 losses.  That shows our level, and it is among the worst in GW history - and yet this is year three when we were supposed to start improving.

 

12/14/2021 1:45 pm  #9


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

It really stands to reason whether there is another program in the country that will be playing a grand total of zero Q1 and one Q2 games in their OOC schedules.  To compare to 2005-06 (regarded as arguably the softest OOC ever):

Quadrant                             2005-06                 2021-22

     1                                          2                            0
     2                                          0                            1
     3                                          2                            6
     4                                          7                            6

Not exactly a no-brainer as to which schedule is softer, is it?

 

12/14/2021 2:10 pm  #10


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

I wouldn't get too hung up in the Quadrants. There is a vast difference between the top of a quadrant and the bottom of the same quadrant especially in AWAY games.  Again in 2005-06 our OOC SOS was 333. Today it is 206. 

Again, I'm not making the case that it's a good schedule but it is not historically bad either or one of the weakest in the nation which was the original claim.

     Thread Starter
 

12/14/2021 2:16 pm  #11


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

"We've played shitty opponents (and lost), but they could have been shittier opponents." 

Is that the 2021-22 team motto? I know that GWrising wants to defend this team. But to nitpick about whether this is one of the worst OOC schedules in the country or just merely a bad OOC schedule (with a terrible record) seems like a silly debate to be having. 

 

 

12/14/2021 2:35 pm  #12


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

And in other revelations, down is up.

 

12/14/2021 3:03 pm  #13


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

Nice to see the GW Athletic Dept is continuing to sell a false narrative - Coppin State's attendance was listed at 998 and Radford's attendance was 1013. In reality, there weren't more than 500-600 fans in attendance (and that's counting both teams and all Smith Center employees) at each game.

Too bad for GW Kenpom and the RPI don't have the same accounting methods. A Kenpom ranking of 252 and an RPI of 316 out of 358 teams is a total embarrassment and has to be an all time low?

Our 4 wins this year are against teams ranked 325, 160 (Wright State), 319 and 262. With a sure win against powerhouse UMES, ranked 339, maybe we can still pull out an invite to the CIT or CBI?

An NIT bid looks like a wet dream right now.

How many more years of this do we have to put up with?

 

12/14/2021 3:41 pm  #14


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

Joel Joseph wrote:

With a sure win against powerhouse UMES, ranked 339, maybe we can still pull out an invite to the CIT or CBI?

There are simply no "sure wins" this season when one of your best performances was being outcoached at home by BU.

 

12/14/2021 5:06 pm  #15


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

Joel Joseph wrote:

maybe we can still pull out an invite to the CIT or CBI?

FWIW we are ineligible for the CIT since we play in the A-10 so it's CBI or bust.

 

12/14/2021 5:46 pm  #16


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

"it's CBI or bust."
   Pretty impossible, barring an incredible turnaround, to reach that noble goal since late November.
But "CBI or bust" may be our highest aspiration in the near future.

 

12/14/2021 5:59 pm  #17


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

danjsport wrote:

"We've played shitty opponents (and lost), but they could have been shittier opponents." 

Is that the 2021-22 team motto? I know that GWrising wants to defend this team. But to nitpick about whether this is one of the worst OOC schedules in the country or just merely a bad OOC schedule (with a terrible record) seems like a silly debate to be having. 

 

 Well we could say our record is poor against a mediocre to slightly worst than average OOC schedule (206 out of 358) or we can say our record is poor versus one of the worst OOC schedules in the nation. I prefer accuracy not embellishment.

Last edited by GWRising (12/14/2021 6:38 pm)

     Thread Starter
 

12/14/2021 7:33 pm  #18


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

I was always under the impression that schadenfreude here was about misfortunes of that school down the street or the one where couches are burned in the street. Disappointing to see how often it appears to be about our own team under the guise of emulating Howard Cosell, sending a message of anger to school officials or just claiming to “being real.” To each his own I guess. Just glad I can sit back as a fan and root for the team, good and bad, without the burden of being a basketball savant.

 

12/14/2021 9:37 pm  #19


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

C'mon, Poog.   Just once.   Let your hair down. Cut loose.  Scream something at the next home game, positive or negative.  Get the juices flowing.  You may surprise yourself and find it quite cathartic.  After the game, you can resume being level headed.

 

12/15/2021 10:02 am  #20


Re: Strength of Schedule - OOC

As much as GWRising or anyone would like to make this a fact based discussion, the answer to whether this is one of the worst OOC schedules in the country or not boils down to one's opinion.  Asking us to ignore the application of quadrants is foolish.  It's a strong enough metric for the NCAA selection committee to use but it's not good enough to analyze GW's schedule?  Hardly.

I'm guessing the 206 SOS ranking is based on the cumulative won-loss record of one's opponents which as we all know is badly misleading.  Everyone knows that a 7-3 Villanova should not be treated exactly the same as a 7-3 Marshall or a 7-3 Southern Utah.

We should all be able to agree that most of the "bad sounding teams" on our schedule are not terrible.  All but three presently have records of .500 or better.  The median KenPom ranking of our OOC opponents is 224, not good but not terrible.

The problem again boils down to quadrants or not enough quality opponents.  Am not suggesting that we would have won such games, only that playing them would have resulted in playing a tougher schedule.

Based on KenPom rankings, here is how our 13 games break out:

KenPom Ranking                # of Opponents

1-49                                              0
50-99                                            2
100-149                                        1
150-199                                        3
200-249                                        4
250-299                                        1
300+                                             2

Over half of the opponents are in the 155-243 range.  

So, if you're a really bad program and this is your schedule, you can claim it was challenging.

If you're GW and your KenPom ranking is 252, as the 252nd best team in the country, you can look at this schedule and claim that it's challenging.

If your aspirations are to be a far better program, say a top 100 or top 125 program, then this schedule is soft.  You've barely challenged yourself with better teams and you've loaded up on teams who aren't terrible but who you should handily beat.  A 10-3 or 11-2 record should be attainable for a top 125 team against this schedule.

Back to reality.  This exact same schedule may be perceived as fair and challenging because we are the 252nd best program in the country right now.  So really, one can make a case practically in any direction based on how one wishes to view our situation. 

 

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