brod wrote:

What's the deal with Ira Lee - Is he for sure gone? Center seems to be the missing puzzle piece, not sure if we can replicate Larsen but Hunter Dean has definitely stepped up more than some other gangly centers I can think of.

 For sure gone. 

I don't think thats pessimistic, it is absolutely clear. Without any impact inside players who can body up in the post, we wont be able to compete against top teams.

GW73 wrote:

Before we make any "Case for a Big Jump Next Year" let's be sure that Freeman, Bamissle and Bishop are coming back next year. Are we sure they are?

I have no inside knowledge but I would be very surprised if any of them left. They all seem very happy and all have a prominent role on the team. Especially now that the team is looking better than it did to start the year, I think they're all bought in.

I also recently looked at the 12-13 team and was stunned to see that team had a kenpom of 111. If we were at 111 right now I think we'd be talking NCAAs as an expectation next year. I don't think anyone was talking NCAAs after the 12-13 season; that team needed a buzzer-beater in the last game of the season just to avoid missing the conference tourney, back when the bottom 2 teams didn't even make the conference tourney.

I can think of long lists of reasons for both optimism and pessimism next year. Something the 13-14 team had was four solid freshmen becoming sophomores, in addition to Armwood and Creek. For the current team, I see Freeman and Bamisile being the keys to next year since I think both have incredibly high ceilings they have yet to fulfill. I think FQ mentioned Bamisile having NBA potential, and I agree. I know this may be too bullish on him, but I think he could have potential of 1st team all conference, in the conversation for POY. He has elite athleticism combined with potentially elite skills, including shooting close to 40% from 3 during conference play. If he can fulfill that potential and Freeman makes a sophomore leap, and an impact transfer big is added, I can see reasons for optimism for next year (i'll hold on discussing the reasons for pessimism for now )

Gwmayhem wrote:

A good measure of Joe's growth as a player will be whether his basketball IQ rises over time.  Will he avoid taking ill advised shots?  When he's trying to score on a 1 vs. 3 on the break, will he pull the ball back out?  (He did not on Wednesday.)  Will he stop himself from going for foolish steals 30 feet from the basket, thereby enabling his man to drive past him?  His athleticism and skills are elite.  From there, he needs to learn how to make better decisions on the court.

  These are very good points.  And consistent shooting, along with shot selection and defensive play that is not just athletic.
  He has tremendous athleticism, enthusiasm and a shot that can be very pure at times to build on if he seeks make himself into a GW great.

BM wrote:

PS - The KenPom luck rank of #61 this season also worries me

In conference we’ve lost games by 25, 27, 11 (to St Joe), 13, 5 (to Davidson!), 26, 13, and 7.   6 out of 8 by double figures, with 3 by at least 25.    If we played Bona, they probably beat us by double figures.

Our wins have by 1, 2, 9, 2, 9, 21 (over Duq), 11, and 5 in 3OT. 

So we are 4-0 in games decided by less than 5 or in OT; but 2-6 in double digit margins.

That’s hard to replicate. Old school fans/analysts call that a team that knows how to win close ones.  KenPom calls it luck because he figures over a larger sample size, those results would even out.

Personally I think the fact that we’ve been blown out so many times while pulling out most of the close games suggests that we are further away from competing than our 8-8 record suggests. 

I agree with those who say 2 strong frontcourt players are a must.  Maybe Jabari West can be one, but if he’s not a Brayon Freeman level recruit, then we are going to need 2 transfers to make the big jump.

I will add, I firmly believe if we had Ira Lee, we’d have been a better team all year (though we aren’t the only team dealing with a big injury). And I do think our guards are talented enough to make a leap if they have that frontcourt support (and get better coaching in ball movement, moving off the ball, and defensive details like keeping their man in front of them and going aggressively for long rebounds). 

But despite how pleased I am with how much we’ve improved from our rock bottom OOC performance (bottom 75 in the nation), this overall season has shaken my faith that JC will he able to get us to where ML, KH, Jarvis, and even Penders had us.  Next year is clearly make or break for his tenure.

I’m pleased with how the team has done and how they decided not to be terrible. Im sure JC had a role, but a turnaround from being as bad as they were is about leadership on the team. Reflects really well on their athletic character. I’d love to see 2 A10 tourny wins be their reward.

Still I think we’d be wise not to go Mander Crazy about next year.