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2/26/2023 11:05 pm  #1

Bubble Watch 2023

The Bubble Watch is upon us, lot of intriguing resumes.

One team I don't really see why they are on the Bubble, Wisconsin.   

6 Quad 1 Wins, won at Marquette, beat USC on a Neutral court, beat Maryland.

6-5 in Quad 1.  I know the computer #s are shaky, but that looks like a tourney team resume to me.



2/28/2023 12:20 am  #2

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

West Virginia wins on the road vs top 25 Net Iowa St, a huge Quad 1 win for a bubble team.

With a 19 KenPom West VA shoud be good to go, 5 Quad 1 wins, excellent computer rankings.  Most analysts have them firmly on the edge of the bubble, 5 Quad 1 wins and top 20 Computer rankings is not only

Dancing should be 8-9 seed.  They do have a lot of Quad 1 losses, otherwise they'd be even higher.  Very very tough schedule


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2/28/2023 9:37 am  #3

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

Well, we're not at a 96 team field yet, so we can't just say yes to everyone.

It's been widely reported that the Quad wins and losses have far more to do with where teams get seeded as opposed to whether they make the field or not to begin with.  

The one metric that I would hope garners much attention is the nonconference strength of schedule.  This is where the power 5 + Big East programs can control to a large extent how much or how little they will test themselves. Conference schedules are obviously out of a school's control but nonconference schedules, particularly among the majors who camn dictate that the vast majority of their games are played at home, can not.

Schools like Michigan and Wisconsin clearly have flaws on their resumes but both played a top 50 OOC schedule.  Staying with the Big 10, Penn State (246), Iowa (250) and Rutgers (255) clearly opted not to tax themselves too much with their OOC schedules.  Clemson (223) and NC State (230) should be under the microscope.  In the end, you do need 68 schools so when factoring everything there is to factor, schools like Iowa, Rutgers and NC State have likely done enough at this point.  West Virginia (155) and Oklahoma State (172) each play in the conference from hell, but both have also lost a lot (13 and 14 losses respectively).  Meanwhile, there will be the likely runner-up from the Colonial, either Hofstra (45) or Charleston (140).  Are we sure that this, by definition, needs to be a one-bid league?


2/28/2023 11:26 pm  #4

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

Wake Forest loses at home, a Quad 4 Loss to BC.

As brutal as it gets for a team on the edge of the bubble coming into the game

VCU beats a good Saint Louis team 79-67 in a showdown of two of A10's best teams.    VCU at 14-3 locks up the #1 seed in The A10 and at 23-7 with ever improving computer #s is rounding into a compelling at-large candidate

I think if it comes down to the best A10 team or the 5th best Mountain West team for the last spot I could see VCU landing the bid.  

Last edited by The Dude (2/28/2023 11:42 pm)

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3/01/2023 9:47 am  #5

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

VCU article in the Athletic with a small GW mention as the last team to be the sole representative of the A10 int he tournament. Bracket Breakers 2023: Why VCU might break some brackets plus 6 other teams to watch - The Athletic

Back in 2005, St. Joseph’s finished with the Atlantic 10’s best record but lost in the conference tournament to George Washington and wound up in the NIT. That was the last time the A-10 received only one bid to the NCAA Tournament. But the way things look, with just 10 days until Selection Sunday, the A-10 could be in a similar position this March.

And that’s bad news for VCU.

The Rams lead the conference by two games at 14-3 and boast a 23-7 overall record. But they’re just 68th in the NET rankings, and most bracketologists don’t view them as a likely at-large team if they slip up in the conference tournament in Brooklyn. Even our model views them as a slightly lesser team than Dayton (albeit the better potential killer).

In the past, that résumé might have been enough to get VCU into the NCAA tourney. But conference realignment has centralized even more tourney bids in the hands of the mighty few. It wasn’t long ago that leagues such as the A-10 or American could expect three or even four teams to reach the NCAA tournament. Now, they are fighting for fewer available slots and have less of a chance to prove themselves. Why? Power conferences have increased, meaning they play more league games. Add in early-season tournaments and events like the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, and there is less incentive for those schools to schedule their few remaining games against challenging mid-major programs like VCU.

“It’s the hardest part of this job, and it’s the one thing that’s changed the most,” says VCU head coach Mike Rhoades. “[Executive Director of Men’s Basketball Operations] Jimmy Martelli is in charge of that. If I showed you his notebooks – because he writes everything down – and how hard we try to get games, and even neutral games, it’s just really difficult. We’re not the only ones in this boat, so I’m not crying over spilled milk. It’s the reality. We didn’t win enough out of conference this year, but now that is drastically magnified because we don’t have as many opportunities.”


3/01/2023 11:39 am  #6

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

I was about to bring up the same article GW0509.  This is the time of year that Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner co-author a series of articles about their Slingshot model designed to predict which teams are in the best shape to upset teams seeded 5 lines or higher than they are.  Of course, matchups play a role in altering these chances.  The point made about VCU is that based largely on their ranking of 4th in the country in defensive turnover rate (just shy of 25%), this makes them a good candidate to pull tournament upsets (which we know they have pulled off in the past).  

Trying to put my A10 bias aside, it would be a travesty if VCU were an NIT team.  They've won the A10 outright, and would be 26-8 if they defeat GW and then lose in the A10 final.  None of their computer metrics stand to gain considerably leading up to the Dance.  In the OOC, they lost 2 games, to Arizona State and Memphis, without Ace Baldwin, arguably their best player.  Somehow, the majors seem to get a pass when a key player is out for missing a few losses.  Wonder if it will even be mentioned in the NCAA Committee room?

And as the article points out, there are fewer opportunities for quality midmajors to add high caliber games unless they agree to play all the time on the road, which is not exactly fair.   As I've said before, VCU is projected to win the conference tournament which is why they are not showing up on anyone's last 4 in or first 4 out lists.  But if they were to trip up in Brooklyn, it would be a travesty to watch a bunch of 13 and 14 loss teams from the P5 make it ahead of VCU.


3/01/2023 11:46 am  #7

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

The A10 is often described as a one bid league but we always seem to manage to get at least a second team in. I suspect this year will be no different. This will be especially true if VCU loses the final of the conference tournament. They will already be projected in, and the upset will force the committee to take out the weakest team. That could be VCU, but could be someone else. These "bracketologists" are just sharing their opinions, and their goal is to get as many people to look at their stuff as possible. They have no idea what the committee is thinking, and they are wrong on a few teams every year.

Last edited by DC Native (3/01/2023 11:46 am)


3/01/2023 11:57 am  #8

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

The thing VCU has going for it is that it has the "brand" of a perennial tournament team.

In my mind, the three teams with that "brand" are probably Dayton, VCU, and Davidson.  If you recall last year, Dayton was the supposed first team out even though no one thought that was possible.  Like DC Native says, while I don't think VCU can bank on being an at-large, it wouldn't entirely surprise me if VCU slips in given the A10 championship is late on Selection Sunday.  The committee will probably have the bracket already set with VCU slotted as the predicted A10 champ and then bump a First Four team out and put VCU in if they lose close in the Championship to say a Dayton or SLU.



3/01/2023 3:16 pm  #9

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

I was hoping we could catch a VCU who already has the tourney #1 seed wrapped up but they can not chance on getting a quad 4 loss and still hope to sneak in with an at large bid if they can't win the conference tourney.

Therefore, we need to seal their fate by taking care of business at home on Saturday.


3/01/2023 3:57 pm  #10

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

Joel Joseph wrote:

I was hoping we could catch a VCU who already has the tourney #1 seed wrapped up but they can not chance on getting a quad 4 loss and still hope to sneak in with an at large bid if they can't win the conference tourney.

Therefore, we need to seal their fate by taking care of business at home on Saturday.

Joel, GW's NET is 211.  A VCU loss at GW would be a Q3 loss, not a Q4 loss.

You and The Dude are really having some problems grasping how the NET rankings and Quad wins/losses work.  LOL.


3/01/2023 4:56 pm  #11

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

Funny, when I wrote that post, I wasn't sure whether GW was in 3rd or 4th Quadrant - doesn't really matter because VCU's chances of an at-large bid are slim to none if they don't win the A-10 Tourney. And if they get beat by GW on Sat, any chance of an at-large bid goes away and they have to win it all.


3/01/2023 7:23 pm  #12

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

Interesting note.  Andy Katz’s latest tournament projection has VCU now an 11 seed.   That is the highest I’ve seen and there are projected teams in as at larges as a 12 seed. 

I’m not suggesting VCU is going to get at large consideration.  Yet. 

Also, while the RPI is no longer used, they are current ranked 32nd using that metric.  Not relevant but interesting.


3/01/2023 7:27 pm  #13

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

BGF wrote:

Interesting note. Andy Katz’s latest tournament projection has VCU now an 11 seed. That is the highest I’ve seen and there are projected teams in as at larges as a 12 seed.

I’m not suggesting VCU is going to get at large consideration. Yet.

Also, while the RPI is no longer used, they are current ranked 32nd using that metric. Not relevant but interesting.

I am also starting to see VCU in some analysts field as an 11 seed, in the at large territory

A Dayton vs VCU A10 Tourney Final seems like it could well net the A10 two teams.

Would trade that for a few more GW wins! But def forseeable now


     Thread Starter

3/01/2023 10:39 pm  #14

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

Pitt, bubble team, BLOWN out by a terrible Notre Dame tonight down 20-30 most of the game   90-81 and not as close as that suggests. 

The great MIKE BREY, a great winner,  deservedly goes out a winner, in his final home game at Notre Dame.

ND came in 2-16 in a very very down ACC.      65 KenPom for Pittsburgh

Things like that really help the odds for the VCUs of the world.

     Thread Starter

3/02/2023 10:35 pm  #15

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

Jamison Battle's 3 point heroics, late 3 after late 3 in the last minute stun Rutgers late.

The GW Trio came in an 8 to 9 seed on most brackets so this wont knock them out but it probably puts them back near the bubble.  

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3/02/2023 10:51 pm  #16

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

I hope the loss by Rutgers doesn't do that much damage to their NCAA tournament resume. Rutgers lost at home to Nebraska recently too, which is also a bad loss. 


3/02/2023 11:00 pm  #17

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

Thomas, they've got great wins, 6 Quad wins, games like the road win at Purdue as good as it gets, but the bad losses have knocked them from a 5-6 seed resume to 8-9 and now maybe to 11ish.

They booked so many big wins, and good computer #s should be in. but man, they do have more bad losses than you'd like to see

     Thread Starter

3/03/2023 4:25 pm  #18

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

Why is Michigan even on the bubble?

3-10 vs Quad 1.  They lost at Home to #323 Central Michigan, the worst loss of the year for any team in any league.   Fringey Net at 55.   They barely survived #316 East Michigan 88-83

  Michigan had 3 Cracks at Quad 1 wins in the OOC and lost ALL of them, including a home game loss, and 2 neutral game losses.  

If you put a blinder over the name would anyone consider that an at large resume???

Lundardi dropped Rutgers from an 8 seed to a 9 after their bad loss last night at the hands of Jamison Battle.   I believe some other analysts seem them as closer to the bubble so will be interesting


Last edited by The Dude (3/03/2023 4:29 pm)

     Thread Starter

3/04/2023 4:10 pm  #19

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

You can take both Auburn and West VA off the bubbke

HUGE wins for both Auburn and West VA, both schools were around the "last 4 in" coming in, both got massive wins. 

Kinda ridic they were even near the bubble with 20ish NET & KenPom when there are Big 10 schools in the 70s on the bubble supposedly.


     Thread Starter

3/04/2023 11:14 pm  #20

Re: Bubble Watch 2023

Vanderbilt beats Miss St, a team on most last 4 in lists enterring the day and now maybe OUT

Vanderbilt has THREE straight Quad 1 wins and FIVE straight Quad 2 wins.   Bubble for them???


     Thread Starter

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