Well, we're not at a 96 team field yet, so we can't just say yes to everyone.

It's been widely reported that the Quad wins and losses have far more to do with where teams get seeded as opposed to whether they make the field or not to begin with.  

The one metric that I would hope garners much attention is the nonconference strength of schedule.  This is where the power 5 + Big East programs can control to a large extent how much or how little they will test themselves. Conference schedules are obviously out of a school's control but nonconference schedules, particularly among the majors who camn dictate that the vast majority of their games are played at home, can not.

Schools like Michigan and Wisconsin clearly have flaws on their resumes but both played a top 50 OOC schedule.  Staying with the Big 10, Penn State (246), Iowa (250) and Rutgers (255) clearly opted not to tax themselves too much with their OOC schedules.  Clemson (223) and NC State (230) should be under the microscope.  In the end, you do need 68 schools so when factoring everything there is to factor, schools like Iowa, Rutgers and NC State have likely done enough at this point.  West Virginia (155) and Oklahoma State (172) each play in the conference from hell, but both have also lost a lot (13 and 14 losses respectively).  Meanwhile, there will be the likely runner-up from the Colonial, either Hofstra (45) or Charleston (140).  Are we sure that this, by definition, needs to be a one-bid league?

VCU article in the Athletic with a small GW mention as the last team to be the sole representative of the A10 int he tournament. Bracket Breakers 2023: Why VCU might break some brackets plus 6 other teams to watch - The Athletic

Back in 2005, St. Joseph’s finished with the Atlantic 10’s best record but lost in the conference tournament to George Washington and wound up in the NIT. That was the last time the A-10 received only one bid to the NCAA Tournament. But the way things look, with just 10 days until Selection Sunday, the A-10 could be in a similar position this March.

And that’s bad news for VCU.

The Rams lead the conference by two games at 14-3 and boast a 23-7 overall record. But they’re just 68th in the NET rankings, and most bracketologists don’t view them as a likely at-large team if they slip up in the conference tournament in Brooklyn. Even our model views them as a slightly lesser team than Dayton (albeit the better potential killer).

In the past, that résumé might have been enough to get VCU into the NCAA tourney. But conference realignment has centralized even more tourney bids in the hands of the mighty few. It wasn’t long ago that leagues such as the A-10 or American could expect three or even four teams to reach the NCAA tournament. Now, they are fighting for fewer available slots and have less of a chance to prove themselves. Why? Power conferences have increased, meaning they play more league games. Add in early-season tournaments and events like the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, and there is less incentive for those schools to schedule their few remaining games against challenging mid-major programs like VCU.

“It’s the hardest part of this job, and it’s the one thing that’s changed the most,” says VCU head coach Mike Rhoades. “[Executive Director of Men’s Basketball Operations] Jimmy Martelli is in charge of that. If I showed you his notebooks – because he writes everything down – and how hard we try to get games, and even neutral games, it’s just really difficult. We’re not the only ones in this boat, so I’m not crying over spilled milk. It’s the reality. We didn’t win enough out of conference this year, but now that is drastically magnified because we don’t have as many opportunities.”

The A10 is often described as a one bid league but we always seem to manage to get at least a second team in. I suspect this year will be no different. This will be especially true if VCU loses the final of the conference tournament. They will already be projected in, and the upset will force the committee to take out the weakest team. That could be VCU, but could be someone else. These "bracketologists" are just sharing their opinions, and their goal is to get as many people to look at their stuff as possible. They have no idea what the committee is thinking, and they are wrong on a few teams every year.

Last edited by DC Native (3/01/2023 11:46 am)

I was hoping we could catch a VCU who already has the tourney #1 seed wrapped up but they can not chance on getting a quad 4 loss and still hope to sneak in with an at large bid if they can't win the conference tourney.

Therefore, we need to seal their fate by taking care of business at home on Saturday.

Funny, when I wrote that post, I wasn't sure whether GW was in 3rd or 4th Quadrant - doesn't really matter because VCU's chances of an at-large bid are slim to none if they don't win the A-10 Tourney. And if they get beat by GW on Sat, any chance of an at-large bid goes away and they have to win it all.

BGF wrote:

Interesting note. Andy Katz’s latest tournament projection has VCU now an 11 seed. That is the highest I’ve seen and there are projected teams in as at larges as a 12 seed.

I’m not suggesting VCU is going to get at large consideration. Yet.

Also, while the RPI is no longer used, they are current ranked 32nd using that metric. Not relevant but interesting.

I am also starting to see VCU in some analysts field as an 11 seed, in the at large territory

A Dayton vs VCU A10 Tourney Final seems like it could well net the A10 two teams.

Would trade that for a few more GW wins! But def forseeable now

 

Jamison Battle's 3 point heroics, late 3 after late 3 in the last minute stun Rutgers late.

The GW Trio came in an 8 to 9 seed on most brackets so this wont knock them out but it probably puts them back near the bubble.  
 

Thomas, they've got great wins, 6 Quad wins, games like the road win at Purdue as good as it gets, but the bad losses have knocked them from a 5-6 seed resume to 8-9 and now maybe to 11ish.

They booked so many big wins, and good computer #s should be in. but man, they do have more bad losses than you'd like to see

You can take both Auburn and West VA off the bubbke

HUGE wins for both Auburn and West VA, both schools were around the "last 4 in" coming in, both got massive wins. 

Kinda ridic they were even near the bubble with 20ish NET & KenPom when there are Big 10 schools in the 70s on the bubble supposedly.