1 of 1- Gwmayhem
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Upcoming Schedule
For all of the talk regarding the realistic possibility of beginning conference play 0-3 (and you can and should be forgiven if you've unsuccessfully predicted all 3 games so far), this next stretch of games should be to GW's liking. The cautionary note here is that I remain convinced that GW can lose to everyone (after last season, I am not getting on a high horse anytime soon) and yet after these past two games (particularly the slaying of Dayton), I am also convinced that GW on its best day can beat everyone. The A10 is parity with a capital P or as one of the pundits recently remarked, "The Conference of Chaos." So, with no wins taken for granted and no losses considered automatic, here is the near-te4rm schedule:
DUQUESNE..Playing far better than their 0-6 start but this should still be winnable. The Dukes have beaten URI and St. Joe's at home while losing at Davidson. Nothing about this shocks me. Not like earlier this season when the Dukes lost home games to sub-200 NET squads Maine and St. Peter's.
At George Mason..Seems logical to save some wear and tear and give each team a 1-1 split this season but the fact is that GW has had more success in Fairfax than the other way around. Mason has defended their home court in-conference, knocking off Davidson, Richmond and UMass while losing its sole road game on a buzzer beater at URI. Other than this, just another typical year for the Patriots. Nobody bats an eyelash when losing to Duke or Marquette, but falling at home to Central Michigan or even at East Carolina aren't great looks.
At UMass..One of these things are not like the others...New Hampshire, Harvard, NJIT, UMASS-Boston, Northeastern, and Dayton. Those are Frank Martin's 6 wins so far this season. While they did play a challenging OOC (certainly by A10 standards), losses to UMASS-Lowell (been there, done that) and Central Connecticut State are tough to overlook. The losses at Joe's and at Mason are understandable, the home loss to Richmond is less so, but the home win over Dayton might be even more stunning than ours.
ST. LOUIS..Please note I did not say at St. Louis, which until rectified may be categorized along with death and taxes. The Bills are beatable in the Smith Center. They are the conference's sole unbeaten but with just a single road win over Fordham, that's not quite as impressive as it sounds (despite solid home wins over the conference's fellow Saints). Talk to me Sunday St. Louis after road games at VCU and at Richmond this week.
RICHMOND..Come on, this had better be a victory. Especially since Delonnie Hunt who brought GW to its knees in the first meeting will be out with a broken foot. The Spiders lost the game against Mason where the injury occurred as well as their next game to Rhody. Chris Mooney has his work cut out.
at LA Salle..The Explorers just escaped the winless mark in conference play (leaving Fordham alone in the basement) with an arguably more shocking win at St. Bonaventure than either of Dayton's conference losses. Every meeting with La Salle can be approached as follows from a GW perspective: We should win this game. We're better than La Salle. And yet, they are not at all afraid to play us and they have Fran Dunphy on their sideline. Not an easy game but if we're comparing this to several games later in the season, this is an important one.
GEORGE MASON.. Again, could always go either way, and yet the two games will likely be split.
These next 7 have a legitimate upside of 6-1, with 5-2 being a realistic goal. February will feature road games at St. Bonaventure, Davidson, and Loyola along with home games against VCU and St. Joe's. Hopefully, we take advantage of this next stretch.
- GWRising
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Re: Upcoming Schedule
This is where irrational exuberance might bite us in the ass. I truly think most league games are shaping up as a 50/50 proposition. Could we go 5-2? Absolutely. We could also go 2-5. If the NFL is a week to week league, then the A-10 is a game to game league this year. I see a lot of parity which means it's going to come down to who is better that night. Road games are all tough. There is not one "give me" in the bunch in that 7-game stretch. To avoid the highs and lows that I believe will almost surely follow from this parity, I'd suggest we take this one game at time instead of looking at stretches of the season. One thing is almost already for sure, the 2025 A-10 tournament is going to be wild and barring a minor miracle, we are likely a one-bid league. So winner take all.
Last edited by GWRising (1/13/2025 5:46 pm)
- Gwmayhem
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Re: Upcoming Schedule
I'm guessing you're an awful lot of fun at parties, Rising.
Irrational exuberance? Which part? The part where I said GW could lose to everyone or the part where I said that 5-2 is a realistic goal? Goal..something to shoot for. Realistic goal...something that is attainable but will not necessarily be easy to achieve. My God, you yourself said "absolutely" to whether we Could go 5-2.
Players and coaches are wise to take games one at a time but as fans, why not dissect the schedule in such a way that makes sense? It's important to win as many of these next 7 as possible since the schedule will get more difficult in February.
The next time I write something like "GW should definitely go at least 5-2 in their next 7" or "it will be extremely disappointing if GW fails to win at least 5 of its next 7 games", then by all means, please go ahead and accuse me of irrational exuberance. Otherwise, please don't.
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Thread Starter- DC Native
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Re: Upcoming Schedule
If we beat all the teams with a lower NET and lose to all the teams with a higher NET right now, we finish the season 23-9 and 12-6 in the A10. Now I do not expect that to happen, and 10-8 in conference is still my goal. But Rising's warning about high expectations is very warranted, especially after last year, when we were in a similar position starting 3-1 in conference (although with a lower NET). If the scenario above holds true, we are 5-2 in the next 7, with both loses to Mason. But the St. Louis (115) game is almost a push, so I would say to get to 5-2, I would expect to lose @Mason (86), beat EITHER Mason or St. Louis at home, and win the rest. But we've already lost @Richmond (242) and beat Dayton (62) and @URI (95), so I agree with Rising that pretty much anything could happen over these next 7 games.
As for Rising's statement that the A10 will be a one-bid league this year, I read that on this site every year, and almost every year we manage to get a second team in. I expect that will happen again this year. One team will emerge as at at large team, all the projections will show that as the only team from the A10 to get in the NCAA Tournament, but someone else will win the A10 Tournament and "steal" a second bid for the league.
- GWRising
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Re: Upcoming Schedule
Gwmayhem wrote:
I'm guessing you're an awful lot of fun at parties, Rising.
Irrational exuberance? Which part? The part where I said GW could lose to everyone or the part where I said that 5-2 is a realistic goal? Goal..something to shoot for. Realistic goal...something that is attainable but will not necessarily be easy to achieve. My God, you yourself said "absolutely" to whether we Could go 5-2.
Players and coaches are wise to take games one at a time but as fans, why not dissect the schedule in such a way that makes sense? It's important to win as many of these next 7 as possible since the schedule will get more difficult in February.
The next time I write something like "GW should definitely go at least 5-2 in their next 7" or "it will be extremely disappointing if GW fails to win at least 5 of its next 7 games", then by all means, please go ahead and accuse me of irrational exuberance. Otherwise, please don't.
Realistic goal of 5-2 and legitimate upside of 6-1 doesn't sound too much like we could lose all of them or even go say 2-5. Maybe that's just me. But let me ask you this. If we beat Dayton but lost to Richmond and URI in a close game, we'd be roughly the same team but I bet you'd have a different outlook. 2-1 is 8 points away right now from 1-2. I just think that I would be taking this one game at a time without a few more data points especially given the parity in the league right now. Sorry to rain on your parade 3 games in but it's still early. Hoping you are right though.
- GWRising
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Re: Upcoming Schedule
If we beat all the teams with a lower NET and lose to all the teams with a higher NET right now, we finish the season 23-9 and 12-6 in the A10. Now I do not expect that to happen, and 10-8 in conference is still my goal. But Rising's warning about high expectations is very warranted, especially after last year, when we were in a similar position starting 3-1 in conference (although with a lower NET). If the scenario above holds true, we are 5-2 in the next 7, with both loses to Mason. But the St. Louis (115) game is almost a push, so I would say to get to 5-2, I would expect to lose @Mason (86), beat EITHER Mason or St. Louis at home, and win the rest. But we've already lost @Richmond (242) and beat Dayton (62) and @URI (95), so I agree with Rising that pretty much anything could happen over these next 7 games.
As for Rising's statement that the A10 will be a one-bid league this year, I read that on this site every year, and almost every year we manage to get a second team in. I expect that will happen again this year. One team will emerge as at at large team, all the projections will show that as the only team from the A10 to get in the NCAA Tournament, but someone else will win the A10 Tournament and "steal" a second bid for the league.
As to the A-10 tournament, you are generally correct. However, I think this year is different because I don't see a team having a really strong regular A-10 season then getting upset in the tournament. Maybe Dayton can find its footing again but not sure anyone else has the capability of running through the league coupled with a strong OOC. Just don't see anyone going 15-3 or maybe even 14-4 this year. So its likely going to be the A-10 tournament champion with Dayton and maybe VCU being the lone exceptions. We will see. Hope for the best.
- Gwmayhem
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Re: Upcoming Schedule
Rising, I'm afraid you've missed my point. You keep attributing me with having created an optimistic prediction thread which was not the point of my post at all. My sole point was in pointing out that GW will have a favorable schedule over the next 7 games (relatively speaking...it's certainly not favorable when compared to any 7-game stretch of our OOC schedule). There was a fair amount of discussion over the possibility of going 0-3 in the first three games. Am not really sure what the harm is in pointing out that having gone 2-1 in those games, I can hope that the team will take advantage. After those 7, we've got SBU and VCU and things will get tougher again.
I haven't at all suggested that the team can afford to take some nights off and still win, or that parity does not exist within the conference. The point is that even within a well-balanced league, there will likely be some stretches with the schedule that are more favorable than others. Somehow, you're taking this and putting words in my mouth to suggest that what I'm really saying is that we should be expected to win 5 or 6 of the next 7. Not at all an expectation, simply a realistic goal as I had previously suggested.
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Thread Starter- GWRising
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Re: Upcoming Schedule
Gwmayhem, when you use the word "realistic" I think most people would see that as the base case or what you reasonably expect to happen. I would suggest that others read it that way as well. But let's not get bogged down in semantics. I hope your "realistic" goal is correct.
- Gwmayhem
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Re: Upcoming Schedule
LOL Rising. Somewhat presumptuous of you to point out how others are perceiving my words (shocker..the same way that you perceive them). For the record, that's not what I mean when I use the word realistic. Instead, it's to suggest that something can happen, as differentiated from something that either will likely happen or something that is a longshot away from happening.
That said, we're finally in agreement. I agree that we should not get bogged down in semantics.
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