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As of right now, it looks like the highest we could be seeded in the A10 Tournament is 7th (a win at LUC and a loss by DUQ at RIC) and the lowest is 9th (a loss at LUC and a win by FOR).
Finishing as a 7th means we’d play Thursday, March 12 at 5 PM.
Finishing as the 8th or 9th means we’d play Thursday, March 12 at 11:30 AM.
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No game is easy for us but I feel our best chance to win 2 games comes from the 8/9 slot rather than the 7 slot.
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The good news is that we would have a lot of confidence that we could play with St. Louis. The bad news is that there's no way on earth that we would be sneaking up on them this time.
CBS ran an article citing the A10 as the third likeliest conference to "steal a bid". It's crazy that we're not first since the A10 seems to steal a bid every season. Their likely prospects to do so (VCU is excluded under the belief that they will receive an at large if they lose in the championship game) include Dayton and GW (over a 6% chance). Not St. Joes or Duquesne or Davidson.
It's amazing how our metrics say one thing about this team (very good at winning by 10+ points as well as losing by 5 or fewer points) without fully feeling the impact of this team's major deficiency (an inability to win close games). This deficiency is attributed to what KenPom calls luck which is a very misleading bordering on deceptive term.
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Besides not closing games well, there is another reason why GW will have problems stealing a bid - depth. We have 9 players at best and there is a question as to whether one or two are even fully healthy. 4 games in such a short timeframe is going to be very difficult.
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Caputo seemed pretty bullish in his last post-game press conference on the team's chances in Pittsburgh, but I would be shocked if they won it all. I'm just hoping for the team to get 2 wins, which we haven't done in almost 20 years.