Gwmayhem wrote:

If you've ever tried to do something new that contained even the slightest bit of risk, you know how uneasy a feeling this can be.  Keep this in mind as GW truly experiences what it means to overhaul a roster for the very first time. In those olden days of say less than three years ago, we'd be contemplating how to replace Slim, Tre and Woo.  We'd wonder who among the returnees might realistically step up and whether we should be contemplating taking on a transfer (remember when presumably all transfers came with some form of "baggage"?  That seems like a very long time ago.) or hope that an incoming freshman or two could deliver.

A year ago, upon learning that Jun and Jacoi would be moving on, perhaps the most reassuring news was that GW was keeping its core group intact.  Rafael, Trey, Christian, Garrett and Ty all announced that they'd be returning to GW practically within a day of one another.  This represented a substantial foundation to build upon.   It's probably also one of the reasons why GW was so highly regarded in its preseason accolades.  The combination of a star player returning along with the resulting continuity of having so many key players staying together sounded a whole lot better to forecasters than trying to analyze a practically brand-new roster.

GW has formally entered the era of "practically brand-new roster construction."  Did this catch CC and staff off guard?  Who really knows (outside of the team).  If Garrett made it known in February that he would be moving on (and then saw his minutes decline), there would be time to prepare for finding his replacement (though this in turn would be contingent upon learning what other shooters might also be moving on).  If Garrett made his decision after the season, then the team would be forced to walk a tightrope, having little time to prepare without a lot of margin for error.  I'm not picking on Garrett as we can place Trey, Christian, Luke, Ty, and Bubu in this same example.

The bird crumbs we are fed here would lead me to expect having a number of "move-ups" though GWRising has shown excitement over the possibility of a Big 12 player.  Nevertheless, my fear is that next year's team has just 2-3 former P5 players and a much higher number from low to mid majors.  There are plenty of exceptions to any rule but GW has simply had a superior track record with "move-downs" (Armwood, Creek, Cavanaugh, Bishop, Bamisile, Lindo, Adams, Castro) than "move-ups."  There is also the matter of NIL which doesn't likely bode well in GW's favor.

The good news is that GW, at least in my mind, has a pretty good history at outkicking the coverage.  We've discussed the many favorable attributes that going to school in a beautiful part of DC and playing in a good but not great basketball conference can offer.  There will always be some young men that will put the school, the city, the coaching staff, the opportunity for playing time, and even academics ahead of the almighty dollar or the idea or playing in front of fewer than 2,500 people most home games.  And GW has done a credible job in the past in finding these players.

Will that now change in the NIL era?  Let's just hope the ride isn't too bumpy as we find this out.

It’s going to be tougher than ever for us to get those move down players.  According to Evan Miya, the price for high major players is up 73% over last season. Ouch.