Navy up by 23 over Coppin St today.  They do not appear to have many 3pt threats based on box score

Navy Midshipmen

Date: Tuesday December 5th, 2023
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center
TV: Monumental Sports Network (I believe it just replaced NBC Sports Washington so it should be the same channel)
Analytic Ranks: 303rd (KenPom), 290th (EvanMiya), 280th (Haslametrics)
NET Ranking: 295th
2022-23 Record: 18-13, 11-7 (T-2nd in Patriot)
2023-24 Projected Record: 14-15, 9-9 (T-4th in Patriot)

Head-to-Head: 21-19, although GW has dropped the last two meetings against the Midshipmen. The last three matchups against Navy have either been on a neutral site or their place so this will be the first game against them in Foggy Bottom since 1983 (an 87-79 victory for the Buff and Blue). GW split against the Naval Academy in two contests that were part of the BB&T Classic.

In 2009, GW came out on top 81-69 behind 18 points from Damian Hollis, 16 points from Lasan Kromah, and 12 from Tim Johnson.

The following year, Navy took advantage of a cold shooting night from GW and won 64-57. The team shot 31% from the field, including an ice-cold 3/22 from behind the arc. David Pellom and Bryan Bynes had 11 apiece (Pellom had a double-double with 13 boards as well), while Dwayne Smith added 10 from off the bench. On the flip side, Navy shot 44% from distance on 11 made threes. GW's 12 steals in the game was the one thing that kept the game within range.

The most recent matchup took place in 2020 as part of the Veteran's Classic at Navy's place. GW fell behind by 11 going into halftime and wasn't able to make it up in the second, as the Midshipmen made big threes when they needed to (shot 42% from 3 for the game). JB and Jamison finished with 20 points each, with Bishop adding nine assists and Battle totaling seven rebounds. JNJ was just behind with 18 points. The one absolutely eye-popping stat from that game is that Navy finished with 26(!) assists for the game. That has to be one of the best performances passing the ball that any team has had against us in recent memory. It was also JB's debut in a GW uniform. He started strong, finishing with 20+ points in 10 of his first 13 games of the year.

Offensive Efficiency: 348th (KenPom), 349th (EvanMiya), 319th (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 177th (KenPom), 145th (EvanMiya), 186th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 267th (KenPom), 294th (EvanMiya), 246th (Haslametrics)
Roster Rank: 307th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 262nd
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 164th
Rim & 3 Rate: 88% (37th)

Strengths: (2022-23 Season)
Opponent Free Throw Percentage - 65.4% (6th)
Opponent Free Throws Made Per Game - 10.5 FTM (31st)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 37.1% (35th)
Opponent Points Per Game - 64.9 PPG (41st)
Opponent Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 54.3 FGA (56th)
Assists Per Game - 14.8 APG (60th)
Opponent Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 23.2 DRPG (78th)
Opponent Field Goals Made Per Game - 23.6 FGM (T-84th)
Opponent Rebounds Per Game - 32.6 RPG (85th)
Opponent Steals Per Game - 5.8 SPG (94th)
Opponent Free Throws Attempted Per Game - 16 FTA (95th)
Personal Fouls Per Game - 15.9 PF/G (96th)
Steals Per Game - 6.9 SPG (121st)

Weaknesses: (2022-23 Season)
Opponent Personal Fouls Per Game - 15.3 PF/G (326th)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game - 13.5 FTA (353rd)
Free Throws Made Per Game - 9.5 FTM (355th)

Key Returning Players:
Austin Inge (Senior; Greensboro, NC) - 6 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 2.3 apg; 41% FG, 27% 3-PT, 75% FT per 22.8 mpg

Key Losses:
Daniel Deaver (Graduated; Falls Church, VA) - 13.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.9 apg; 53% FG, 39% 3-PT, 65% FT per 27.7 mpg
Tyler Nelson (Graduated; Monroe, NC) - 12.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.1 spg, 1 bpg; 45% FG, 36% 3-PT, 71% FT per 30.4 mpg
Sean Yoder (Graduated; Dublin, PA) - 10.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.6 apg; 45% FG, 41% 3-PT, 74% FT per 29.3 mpg
Christian Jones (Graduated; Bowie, MD) - 7.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg; 46% FG, 44% 3-PT, 69% FT per 21.5 mpg
Patrick Dorsey (Graduated; Raleigh, NC) - 6.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1 spg; 41% FG, 36% 3-PT, 73% FT per 22.9 mpg

Key Transfers:
None, since The Patriot League/Military Academies don't really do transfers.

Preview:
Establishing a successful program at a military institution has always been a difficult feat. It's a tough sell to high schoolers to embrace that lifestyle during their collegiate years, and on top of that balance being a student. While the opportunity to play at the division 1 level has some appeal (Army moving to the AAC for football only will help a bit as well) none of these schools will be attracting the top players from around the country.

The challenge has become that much greater with NIL and the transfer portal. The military academies can't really leverage the transfer portal, as is the case for much of the Ivy League and schools in the Patriot that are more academically-focused. That means while many of the other schools around the nation cacn reload in a single offseason with transfers, these universities have to go the "old-fashioned way" when it comes to improving year over year. The goal has to be long-term during the rebuilding phase and these schools have to capitalize when their top players become upperclassmen. The good news is that players are also more likely to stick around until graduation, so it comes down to internal development.

So far, none of the schools have been able to capitalize on their small windows to qualify for the big dance in recent years. When was the last time Air Force, Army, Navy, The Citadel, or VMI qualified for March Madness? That would be back in the 2005-06 season when AFA was a 13 seed. Incredibly, the Falcons actually earned an at-large bid that year as the auto bid went to San Diego State. The previous appearance, also by Air Force two seasons prior, also came via an at-large bid. That marks 1998 (Navy) as the last year any of these teams were able to win their conference tournament to make the big dance. Fortunately, Air Force being in the Mountain West may give them opportunities to earn at-large bids in the future but it's an uphill climb for all the other schools. Army and The Citadel have never made the tournament in their history, and VMI hasn't been since the 1970s.

The past two seasons have been a "window" for Navy to perhaps land an auto bid given the number of upperclassmen on those squads. The 2021-22 squad came 40 minutes away from history but unfortunately ran into the buzzsaw that is Colgate in the conference championship. The Midshipmen fell behind 18 at halftime and the deficit proved to be too much to overcome.

With most of their players returning last year, Ed DeChellis and Navy had a second crack at making noise. Navy was a bit all over the place early in the year. They notably notched a one point win over a tough Princeton squad that ended up making the Sweet 16, so the ability was there. Navy was able to right the ship (pun not intended) during conference play after a couple rough weeks in January that saw an expected contender fall to 1-5 in the Patriot. Credit DeChellis for turning things around, as Navy won 10 of their final 13 games of the year and were getting hot at the right time. They went 7-1 in February, with a lone close loss at home against Colgate which was somewhat expected. It was less expected that Navy would be sent home after just one game in the conference tournament. They successfully made their game against American an ugly low-scoring contest, but were unable to capitalize on a missed AU free throw down just 1 with 12 seconds to go. According to the play-by-play, they didn't even get a shot off which is even sadder.

Now DeChellis will aim to get over the hump in a new era of Navy basketball. The Midshipmen lost their top five scorers to graduation this offseason, which is never an easy task when you don't have the transfer portal to replace guys. On top of that, they lost nearly 80% of their three point makes and their two best defenders from last year. That's concerning given Navy has finished top 200 in offensive efficiency just four times since 1997 (per KenPom) and last year was one of those seasons.

That would be problematic for most coaches/programs, but DeChellis has never been a coach who overly relied on the three pointer over his coaching career, even going back to his time at Penn State. In fact, Navy hasn't even been in the top half nationally in three point attempt percentage since 2010 (what's up Billy Lange!) It's likely that this year will be a return to basics for DeChellis and Navy - one that focuses on defensive fundamentals and rebounds the ball well on both sides. Navy's offensive rebounding percentage has consistently been strong under DeChellis, ranking in the top 100 in seven of the past nine years. While Navy has been good at not sending other teams to the line, they also rarely visited the line last year (bottom 10 nationally). They may need to be more productive/a factor there to offset the lost production from the perimeter.

It will be up to a number of guys who previously played little to step up, as only a pair of Austins in Austin Inge and Austin Benigni appeared in 30 or more contests for Navy last year.

Inge, a 23 game starter, only averaged 6 ppg last year but is the team's leading returning scorer. With Deaver and Yoder out of the fold, he likely emerges as the starting point guard but will need to improve on his distance shooting from last year (27%). Inge only finished in double figures five times all of last season, but had a 21 point outing against another military school in VMI.

Benigni, a Texas native, possesses a similar skillset to Inge in that he is a capable passer and opportunistic scorer but was somehow even more inefficient than the other Austin last season. He was notably Navy's best FT shooter last year at 85% so perhaps a second year breakout is entirely possible with more playing time. Benigni put up 20 on West Virginia last year and had another 20+ point performance against Youngstown State.

Since Navy does not have scholarship limits (like the Ivy) it's really anyone's guess as to who will step up given how much they lost. A trio of junior guards in Mac MacDonald, Kam Summers, and Lysander Rehnstrom (A+ name) also return after playing limited roles last season. Given neither Austin was much of a three point shooter, perhaps one (or more) from this group can help replace the production lost from deep. It was on a small sample size, but these three combined to go 31/62 (50%) from 3 and nearly 70% of their attempts came from there. If the last name Summers rings a bell it's because Kam's older brother Greg also played for Navy and faced us back in 2020.

Up front, Mike Woods, Aidan Kehoe, Mitch Fischer, and Tony Atkinson will fight for playing time. Woods is listed as a forward despite standing just 6'4". He provides toughness and is a fairly reliable scorer along the interior. Kehoe is a true center at 6'10" but is still a bit raw and will likely be no more than a supporting piece. Fischer likely earns more PT this year as he rebounded better than most of the reserves on the team which DeChellis emphasizes. On top of that, he is fairly mobile offensively and can score at all three levels. Atkinson, a senior, is another option that possesses good size and strength but he hasn't been more than a deeper option for much of his career.

Seven other players have seen action for Navy and are entering their first season with the program. Donovan Draper is actually a sophomore who spent last year as a wide receiver on Navy's football team. That makes a lot of sense given his leaping ability and quick instincts. He averages an impressive 7.5 boards a contest and has averaged 2.5 steals per game on the year so far. His offensive game is still a work in progress, but the potential and skill are there - he averaged a double double (18 points and 10 rebounds) at Forest Hill HS in West Palm Beach, Florida.

The other six guys are all true freshmen:

Jack Medalie, a Tennessee native, has been a consistent rotation piece. He comes from great pedigree, as his grandfather was the co-player of the year in the SEC with Kentucky back in 1972 (Tom Parker) and his uncle (Harry Parker) was in the MLB for several seasons. Jordan Pennick attended Archbishop Spalding HS, which is a storied program in MD. He rebounds well for his height and will likely be a key player for Navy down the line. Jinwoo Kim enters the fold from Kansas. In high school, he ranked #1 all-time in assists and #2 in scoring. At Navy, he'll be able to do a bit of everything and provides great positional size at 6'4". Nyles Howard attended Carmel Christian School in North Carolina, and won multiple state titles when he was in HS so he brings a winning mindset to the program. Carnegie Johnson had a few other scholarship offers from schools in the northeast but ended up choosing Navy. He was a two-time captain in HS and has the chance to be one of the primary facilitators on the team a year or two from now. Finally, Cam Cole is a NoVa kid who played at both Highland School and Osborn Park HS. He has good scoring and defensive insticts but is probably needs more time before he emerges as a true factor.

Given Navy's weaknesses on the offensive end, I'm not sure how much we'll know in terms of defensive improvement (although I'm definitely hoping that GW closes out on shots better) but I think the Midshipmen are solid enough defensively that our offense will be tested. I'm looking to see how well the team is able to move the ball and not be careless with silly turnovers. Transition opportunities should be helpful before Navy is able to set up in the halfcourt. Can we give Stretch opportunities near the hoop? Is the team able to play inside-out to get good looks from distance? How well can GW rebound against this team?

Projected Score: GW 78, Navy 66. 86% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 78.2% chance to earn our first win in December.
 

Evening line.   GW -12.5

Stretch should have a field day swatting shots.

Thanks, Buff & Blue Club.

All three of our players who had injuries should be ready to play tonight.

-11 1/2, -105 on MGM.  I think the play here is under 144 1/2.  Have to think that Navy will try to slow the game down and none of the prior 6 Navy games have reached 145 (though they've been scoring better as of late).

Very disappointing half.  12 turnovers..really?
Outrebounded..really?
Darren, Jacoi, Trey, Garrett, Stretch playing full speed.
Max, JB swaggin around half speed. I’d sit them both to start 2nd half.  Their ballhandling sucks!!

what a BLOCK Party for Stretch!!!
 

? Not playing well at all.