George Mason Patriots (Game 2)
Date: Tuesday February 13th, 2024
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: EagleBank Arena (Fairfax, VA)
TV: MASN / ESPN+
Analytic Ranks: 98th (KenPom), 109th (EvanMiya), 94th (Haslametrics)
NET Ranking: 88th
2023-24 Projected Record: 20-11, 9-9 (T-8th in A10)
Game 1 Result: GW 75, GMU 62 (Buchanan 21 points, Bishop 20 points, Edwards 10 points)
George Mason Preview: Link
George Mason Record Since Last Matchup: 3-3 (Wins vs. St. Bonaventure, vs. Rhode Island, @ Davidson; Losses @ St. Joe's, @ UMass, vs. Loyola Chicago)
Offensive Efficiency: 101st (KenPom), 116th (EvanMiya), 97th (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 114th (KenPom), 120th (EvanMiya), 116th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 328th (KenPom), 322nd (EvanMiya), 328th (Haslametrics)
Home Rank: 190th
Projected Starting Lineup:
Keyshawn Hall (Sophomore; Cleveland, OH) - 17.7 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.6 apg; 49% FG, 34% 3-PT, 85% FT per 32 mpg
Game 1 @ GW: 19 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal; 7-17 FG, 1-4 3-PT, 4-4 FT in 37 minutes.
Darius Maddox (Senior; Bowie, MD)** - 13.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.8 apg; 43% FG, 41% 3-PT, 85% FT per 34.2 mpg (Questionable - Ankle; Okojie started in his place in GMU's last game against Davidson)
Game 1 @ GW: 11 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 1 block; 5-16 FG, 1-6 3-PT in 36 minutes.
Amari Kelly (Graduate Student; Norcross, GA) - 11.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.2 bpg; 57% FG, 45% 3-PT, 77% FT per 27.6 mpg
Game 1 @ GW: 14 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 steals, 2 blocks; 5-10 FG, 2-4 3-PT, 2-2 FT in 35 minutes.
Ronald Polite III (Senior; Temple Hills, MD) - 7.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.9 apg; 42% FG, 33% 3-PT, 87% FT per 25.5 mpg
Game 1 @ GW: 3 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists; 1-5 FG, 0-3 3-PT, 1-2 FT in 24 minutes.
Jared Billups (Junior; Waldorf, MD) - 4.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.2 apg; 43% FG, 24% 3-PT, 71% FT per 24.8 mpg
Game 1 @ GW: 6 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals; 1-5 FG, 0-1 3-PT, 4-5 FT in 28 minutes.
Projected Bench:
Baraka Okojie (Freshman; Brampton, Canada) - 7.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2 apg, 1.4 spg; 46% FG, 31% 3-PT, 72% FT per 22.4 mpg
Game 1 @ GW: 9 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals; 3-9 FG, 1-3 3-PT, 2-2 FT in 25 minutes.
Woody Newton (Senior; District Heights, MD) - 5.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg; 38% FG, 32% 3-PT, 56% FT per 17.1 mpg
Game 1 @ GW: 1 rebound; 0-1 FG, 0-1 3-PT in 6 minutes.
Malik Henry (Senior; Longview, TX) - 3.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg; 62% FG, 50% FT per 10.8 mpg
Game 1 @ GW: 1 rebound; 0-2 FG in 5 minutes.
Austin Ball (Freshman; Man, WV) - 2.4 ppg, 1 rpg; 41% FG, 38% 3-PT per 8.9 mpg
Game 1 @ GW: 2 rebounds; 0-2 FG, 0-1 3-PT in 4 minutes.
Tre' Wood (Graduate Student; Largo, MD) - 2.1 ppg; 47% FG, 33% 3-PT, 50% FT per 7.1 mpg
Game 1 @ GW: 0 minutes played (although he'll see more if Maddox can't play)
Conference Marks (A10 play only):
Combined Opponent Rebounds: 30.8 RPG (1st) (GW on the other hand is last)
Rebound Margin: +2.7 RPG (2nd)
Team FT Percentage: 76.8% (4th)
Opponent FG Percentage: 43% (6th)
Scoring Defense: 69.1 PPG (6th)
Team FG Percentage: 44.7% (6th)
Scoring Margin: +1.2 PPG (7th)
Opponent 3-Point FG Percentage: 35.6% (8th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game: 11.3 TO/G (8th)
Team Offensive Rebounds: 9.7 ORPG (8th)
Team 3-Point FG Percentage: 34.3% (9th)
Scoring Offense: 70.3 PPG (10th)
Steals Per Game: 5.7 SPG (10th)
Turnovers Per Game: 11.4 TO/G (10th)
Combined Team Rebounds: 33.5 RPG (12th)
Team Defensive Rebounds: 23.8 DRPG (12th)
Assist Turnover Ratio: 0.94 Assists/TO (13th)
3-Point FGs Made: 6.7 3PM/G (14th)
Assists Per Game: 10.7 APG (14th) (only GW is worse)
Opponent FT Percentage: 76.5% (14th)
Blocked Shots Per Game: 1.9 BPG (15th)
Individual Leaders (A10 play only):
Scoring:
Keyshawn Hall - 19.5 PPG (3rd)
Darius Maddox - 14 PPG (17th)
Rebounding:
Keyshawn Hall - 7.4 RPG (5th)
Amari Kelly - 5.5 RPG (20th)
Field Goal Percentage:
Amari Kelly - 54.5% (4th)
Keyshawn Hall - 49.6% (12th)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage:
Darius Maddox - 40.7% (19th)
Free Throw Percentage:
Keyshawn Hall - 90% (3rd)
3-PT Field Goals Per Game:
Darius Maddox - 2.4 3PM/G (3rd)
Assists:
Ronald Polite III - 2.6 APG (22nd)
Blocked Shots:
Amari Kelly - 0.8 BPG (17th)
Steals:
Baraka Okojie - 2.1 SPG (2nd)
Minutes:
Darius Maddox - 36.3 MPG (3rd)
Keyshawn Hall - 33.7 MPG (11th)
Keys/Trends:
- Since falling to GW by double digits on MLK day, Mason has played every opponent relatively close, especially more recently. Their six games since have been decided by 9, 8, 2, 1, 6, and 2 points.
- The Patriots shot under 33% from the field in Foggy Bottom, missing a number of missed layups and close-proximity shots. GMU has been better about converting on shots since, especially at home. In their three games at EagleBank, the Patriots have shot 51.7% from the field.
- GMU has also shot the three ball well in the past four games, shooting 41% from distance. They have averaged eight threes per contest during this span.
- With the exception of their matchup against Loyola (when they missed just 15 shots from the field), Mason has had at least nine offensive rebounds in their other five matchups. This will be a challenge for GW even with Jun, but without him it could become a major issue short of the Patriots making most of their shots on first try.
- This was highlighted in the stats section, but Mason isn't overly proficient when it comes to moving the ball. GMU has had 17 assists combined in their past two games against Loyola and Davidson. This should help GW a little bit.
- Don't expect Mason to generate many takeaways in the game. The Patriots had an uncharacteristic 10 steals nine days ago against UMass but have had 19 steals combined in their other five games. I say that with acknowledgement that they had 12 steals against GW back in January.
- The Patriots have been a bit more careless with the ball in their past two contests. They have turned the ball over 17 times in each one. Amari Kelly has especially had issues holding onto the ball, turning it over 10 times between those games. That may not be too much of a surprise given he coughed it up five times in the last matchup.
- Keyshawn Hall continues to enjoy a breakout season in the A10, as he's had just one game in conference that he's failed to hit double figures scoring (Richmond). Hall has played some of his best ball lately, scoring 20+ points in three of Mason's last four games (he had 19 in the other).
- Jared Billups is not a high usage player on offense, but he's only made one shot in GMU's last three games. He incredibly did not even attempt a shot despite playing 27 minutes against UMass. He is not looking to shoot, so if he's attempting a shot late I think CC + staff can live with it.
- Similarly, Ronald Polite III has now gone seven straight games without hitting double digits scoring. He has converted on two or fewer shots from the field in six of those games. Starting from the last GW game, freshman Baraka Okojie has seen more minutes on the court than him. Polite continues to start, but it appears that the changing of the guard has already started.
- Speaking of Okojie, he has attempted at least eight free throws in three of GMU's last six games (Loyola, URI, Bona). The Patriots went 2-1 in these games.
- It will without a doubt hurt Mason if Darius Maddox is forced to miss another game due to an ankle injury. Like Hall, the Va Tech transfer has only finished below 10 points just once in conference play (VCU). The Patriots defeated Davidson 57-55 without him in their last game, but that was the third time all season that GMU failed to hit 60 points. The previous two times (one being the aforementioned VCU game) Mason lost.
- Woody Newton has seriously struggled to shoot the ball when he's had the chance the past nine games. In that span, he's shot 7/38 (18.4%) from the field. He did put up 11 points against UMass, but took 11 shots to do so. If you'll remember though I said the same thing about Montgomery entering the GW game and he proceeded to put up 30. Still, I think he's one of the guys you'd prefer to shoot the ball given his recent track record.
Projected Score: George Mason 79, GW 68. 16% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 12.3% chance at a W.
MG14 wrote: