Posted by GWRising  5/28/2025 9:08 am | #1 |
Very strong rumors that SEC and possibly B10 will leave the NCAA in the near future. If that happens, the end is near for GW athletics at least as a D1 program as we know it. Jack Kvancz predicted all of this 15 years ago and I've been ringing the alarm bell here almost annually ever since. The end is coming fellas whether today, tomorrow or in a year or two ... it was sometimes nice while it lasted. I hope you enjoyed it. NIL and TV money/revenue share cooked the golden goose.
Last edited by GWRising (5/28/2025 9:16 am)
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Posted by GW0509 5/28/2025 11:59 am | #2 |
The biggest issues would be solved if schools just adopted the Notre Dame model (Indy for football, ACC for everything else).
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Posted by Gwmayhem 5/28/2025 3:20 pm | #3 |
The primary motivator for the SEC and Big 10 appears to be more prominence in the football playoff. (Actually, it's money. It's always money.) Should the playoff ultimately expand to 16 teams, they will likely demand that 50% of the field comes from their conferences (4 from each). It appears to be incredible hubris until you consider that in the NFL, and 8-9 division winner makes the playoff while the 9-8 or 10-7 team gets knocked off as a result.
What this really boils down to is whether the other major programs end up following the SEC/Big 10 out the door. If this happens, then I am in full agreement with Rising. But if the ACC, Big 12, etc. hold firm and stay in the NCAA along with the other lesser conferences, then you would seemingly have a PGA/LIV situation (not the Saudi angle but two leagues where there should really be only one).
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Posted by DC Native 5/28/2025 4:22 pm | #4 |
I honestly don't think it would be a bad thing for the big money football programs to leave D1, even if they took their basketball programs with them. It might help stabilize what is left of D1, and GW and the A10 would increase their standing in it. There would be less eyeballs on the NCAA Tourney (presumably the schools that leave would create their own tournament), but I would actually be more interested because it would be a more level playing field and GW and other A10 schools would be much more likely to be in it. The P4 teams already won't play us, we have no chance against them in recruiting due to NIL and current NCAA selection criteria, and GW hasn't made the NCAA Tourney in over a decade, so what really is the drawback? Dashing the hope that we might one day win the A10 Tourney and get blown out in the first or second round of the NCAA Tourney by a semi-professional "college" team?
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Posted by jf 5/28/2025 4:53 pm | #5 |
As bizarre and crazy as all of this is for "college" athletic--including nonsensical conference geography, pretending many players from the big programs are students--perhaps DC Native is right.
Would actually say those teams are professional (players making $1 million plus).
Notwithstanding our own perennial impulse to shoot ourselves in the foot with scheduling, it seems like it can't get any worse for us and our A-10 brethren in terms of the way this new era is shaking out.
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Posted by The Ross-Man! 5/29/2025 8:25 am | #6 |
DC Native wrote:
I honestly don't think it would be a bad thing for the big money football programs to leave D1, even if they took their basketball programs with them. It might help stabilize what is left of D1, and GW and the A10 would increase their standing in it. There would be less eyeballs on the NCAA Tourney (presumably the schools that leave would create their own tournament), but I would actually be more interested because it would be a more level playing field and GW and other A10 schools would be much more likely to be in it. The P4 teams already won't play us, we have no chance against them in recruiting due to NIL and current NCAA selection criteria, and GW hasn't made the NCAA Tourney in over a decade, so what really is the drawback? Dashing the hope that we might one day win the A10 Tourney and get blown out in the first or second round of the NCAA Tourney by a semi-professional "college" team?
One drawback would be the end of Cinderella in the tournament - GW or whichever A10 team being toppled by Saint Peters or FGCU or FDU or whoever doesn't quite get the juices flowing the same
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Posted by PKGW 6/07/2025 3:26 pm | #7 |
Seeing that the Judge approved the settlement- read that the money will be the same per institution.
Will we see some basketball only programs drop hoops since the “salary” competition will be very strong and focus their payments on some smaller sports to attract the best talent.
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Posted by GW0509 6/07/2025 7:36 pm | #8 |
No chance schools drop hoops. It’s relatively cheap to field a team and March Madness is a cash cow.
Now football on the other hand…
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Posted by BGF 6/07/2025 9:20 pm | #9 |
I completely agree. Once GW and other schools get past the sticker shock of paying players, the new rule with a 20.5 million cap on direct payments is actually great for motivated basketball only schools.
Whereas Power 4 football schools are going to spend upwards of 75% of that on football, basketball only schools can spend as much as they want.
Now those football schools are also generating so much more to make these payments, and they’ll direct even more from NIL collectives, this puts us on a much more level playing field when it comes to recruiting. We’re still not going to get the top top talent, but we’re in a much better place.
It used to be that we would lose recruiting battles to larger conference schools who had greater television/media opportunities, and who had ways of providing benefits in perhaps some shady ways. Now, it’s all about money for the players. And there’s nothing that stops us from matching What other schools are spending if, and it’s a HUGE if, we have the desire and fiscal fortitude to do so.
That’s not to say that we will, but with it now being not only legal, but basically required to pay players to stay in the A10, we can match what those other schools are offering to very good players, both in the transfer portal and also coming out of high school.
Don’t kid yourself that our recruiting success in this year‘s transfer portal didn’t have something to do with our ability to pay players. Clearly we have made some kind of commitment or we wouldn’t have seen the kind of influx of talent that we have seen. And as a fan, I kind of love that.
I keep reading on here that the sky is falling, and I just don’t see it.
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Posted by PKGW 6/08/2025 7:51 am | #10 |
As I read it, not everyone (even on the same football team) will/has to get paid. Will be interesting to see if this dilutes the “reserve” talent but also increases the number of portal transfers and creates a type of “farm club” system where players move up to higher paying schools after 1-2 years. Lower tier schools can become “feeder” schools for select high majors.
Would not be great for the academic side but this has never been about actual academics.
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Posted by jf 6/08/2025 1:46 pm | #11 |
As I read it, not everyone (even on the same football team) will/has to get paid. Will be interesting to see if this dilutes the “reserve” talent but also increases the number of portal transfers and creates a type of “farm club” system where players move up to higher paying schools after 1-2 years. Lower tier schools can become “feeder” schools for select high majors.
Would not be great for the academic side but this has never been about actual academics.
Seems to be happening already.
Isn't this the way it is now?
And the idea of developing High School students as a priority roster filling item is already a thing of the past. As is the idea of staying at a school because you like being there and fit in on and off the court.
In big and increasingly medium programs, academics are an afterthought at best compared to NIL/Salaries (outside of our admissions office).
Not that they have academics have ever loomed large in major athletic programs at what are technically universities.
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Posted by Gwmayhem 6/09/2025 8:48 am | #12 |
In advertising, there's the reach vs. frequency argument. (Better to reach as many people as possible few times, or a smaller, more targeted number many times?) In the new world of paying players, there will be the "how should we spread the wealth" dilemma?
Compare the salary caps of the NFL and NBA. In the NFL, there's no one position aside from QB that has so much influence on the outcome of a game. As such, great quarterbacks receive gaudy contracts but often to the detriment of the team. Really good qb's on rookie contracts are golden as you get great play at the position while being able to afford your very good veteran players without facing still penalties. In the NBA, max. contracts are all about a single player having so much influence that teams must break the bank to land or retain such players. It's the nature of the sport to some extent as only five players get to play at a time.
So sure, the blue bloods will try to land multiple superstars and will still have cooperative money to help make this happen. At GW, it's a more interesting question. If players are rated on a 1-10 scale, perhaps GW can afford one "8". That leaves very little room to add much else of decent caliber, so the balance of NIL is used on some "2's: and "3's". That's one way to approach it because that "8" is going to keep you in many games by himself (see Castro, Rafael). Alternatively, and I say this from the standpoint of what the strategy might be in the future or once our "8" departs, will signing five "5's" and "6's" be better than signing one 8, two 2's, and two 3's? This does make for an interesting question.
