GW0509 wrote:

There will be an alumni tailgate before the game. $15 registration fee ($10 for recent grads) to cover food & beverage:

Good Afternoon,

GW Alumni is hosting an exclusive pre-game reception to the Men’s Basketball home opener on Monday, November 3 from 7-8pm in the Champions Club at the Smith Center. We invite you to join us to socialize with other GW Alumni before the big game!

Here are the event details:
Location & Time:
7-8pm Charles E. Smith Center
Champions Club
600 22nd St NW
Washington, DC 20052

https://connect.gwu.edu/site/Calendar?id=131263&view=Detail

This event includes light bites and two drink tickets for beer, wine or soda. We hope to see you there! Tickets for the game must be purchased separately through the Smith Center website.

Raise High!

Good deal, a year where attendance figures to soar, lot more excitement around the program

Just wondering if having already played Ge**getown take some of the excitement away from opening day vs. Maine?   Admittedly it has for me, not the least of which is all the concerns I now have coming out of the exhibition game.  My biggest take from that game was GW did not seem anywhere near ready to start the season and I don't know how much 2 weeks of practice is going to help.   

Rising, so would the correct answer be to take away absolutely nothing from a competitive exhibition where it certainly appeared like both sides were trying hard to win?  You've been here long enough to know that this year's exhibition could have been a 25 point victory over Bowie State and many here would have had more than a few concerns.

And frankly, the only thing worse than that in my mind is the poster who would have witnessed that 25 point win over Bowie State and then declares here that this could be the year that GW reaches the Final 4 based solely on that result.

PKGW wrote:

Season not officially started till we get our 1st dMV P preview!!

Ask and you shall receive!

Maine Black Bears
Date: Monday November 3rd, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 284th (KenPom), 303rd (Bart Torvik), 278th (Haslametrics), 307th (EvanMiya), 242nd (Sports Illustrated)
2024-25 Record: 20-14, 10-6 (3rd in America East)
2025-26 Projected Record: 15-16, 9-7 (T-2nd in America East)

Head-to-Head: 1-0. The lone meeting against Maine came back in 2013 when GW came out on top 108-81. There was no shortage of scoring in this contest, as the two teams combined for 102 points in the first half alone. The Black Bears only won six games that season, and one of those came against a non-D1. The 108 points was the most they conceded all year. The Buff and Blue turned in an efficient offensive performance, shooting 54% from the floor and 39% from deep, with 11 made threes. They also won the rebound battle decisively (49-36) and handed out 21 assists. Five players finished in double figures for the home team, led by Mo Creek's triple-nickel (19 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists). Kethan Savage and Zeek Armwood each added 18 points & 9 rebounds, while KevLar and Nemanja Mikic both poured in 13. Even though Maine was able to generate 11 steals in the game, they shot just 26% on threes and 50% from the line.

Offensive Efficiency: 342nd (KenPom), 334th (Bart Torvik), 314th (Haslametrics), 356th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 162nd (KenPom), 201st (Bart Torvik), 220th (Haslametrics), 183rd (EvanMiya)
Pace: 278th (KenPom), 280th (Bart Torvik), 245th (Haslametrics), 260th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 321st
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 156th
Rim & 3 Rate: 75% (331st)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Turnover Margin: +4.5 TO/G (8th; 1st in AE)
Steals Per Game: 9.1 SPG (17th; 1st in AE)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 14.88 TO/G (24th; 1st in AE)
Scoring Defense: 66.1 PPG (32nd; 2nd in AE)
Fouls Per Game: 15 PF/G (41st; 3rd in AE)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.43 AST/TO (44th; 1st in AE)
Turnovers Per Game: 10.4 TO/G (49th; 1st in AE)
Fastbreak Points: 11.59 PPG (84th; 3rd in AE)
Field Goal Percentage: 46.3% (87th; 3rd in AE)
Three Point Percentage: 35.5% (89th; 3rd in AE)
Assists Per Game: 14.8 APG (92nd; 3rd in AE)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Three Pointers Per Game: 6.6 3PM/G (296th; 9th in AE)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 11.7 FTM (299th; 7th in AE)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 22.85 DRPG (309th; 8th in AE)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 15.9 FTA (326th; 7th in AE)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 18.6 3PA (331st; 9th in AE)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 7.44 ORPG (341st; 8th in AE)
Rebound Margin: -5.2 RPG (341st; 8th in AE)
Rebounds Per Game: 30.29 RPG (344th; 9th in AE)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#0 G Logan Carey (Junior; Shelton, CT) - 2.4 ppg, 1 apg; 33% FG, 13% 3-PT, 59% FT per 10.7 mpg/31 GP at Maine last season
#3 G Ryan Mabrey (Senior; Belmar, NJ) - 4.3 ppg, 1.1 rpg; 33% FG, 33% 3-PT, 70% FT per 14.3 mpg/32 GP at Quinnipiac last season
#11 F Ace Flagg (Freshman; Newport, ME)
#1 F TJ Biel (Graduate Student; Calgary, Canada) - 3.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg; 46% FG, 32% 3-PT, 64% FT per 14 mpg/31 GP at Southeast Missouri State last season
#25 F Keelan Steele (Senior; Alton, Canada) - 4.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg; 54% FG, 55% FT per 14.4 mpg/34 GP at Maine last season

Key Bench Players:
#10 F Killian Gribben (Senior; Letterkenny, Ireland) - 5.3 ppg, 3 rpg, 1.1 bpg; 69% FG, 50% FT per 17.8 mpg/32 GP at Maine last season
#24 G Mekhi Gray (Senior; Montrose, NY) - 3 ppg, 1.2 rpg; 50% FG, 29% 3-PT, 67% FT per 10.1 mpg/10 GP at UMass Lowell last season
#5 G Isaac Bonilla (Junior; Danville, NH) - 1.4 ppg; 40% FG, 25% 3-PT, 100% FT per 5.8 mpg/12 GP at Maine last season
#6 F Yanis Bamba (Junior; Montreal, Canada) - 0.5 ppg, 0.8 rpg; 50% FT per 3 mpg/4 GP at Wichita State last season

Key Losses:
AJ Lopez (Transferred to Richmond; Queens, NY) - 14.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.1 apg; 48% FG, 40% 3-PT, 88% FT per 30.8 mpg/34 GP
Quion Burns (Graduated; White Plains, NY) - 12.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1 spg; 44% FG, 33% 3-PT, 78% FT per 29.7 mpg/34 GP
Kellen Tynes (Graduated; Dartmouth, Canada) - 12.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.6 apg, 3.1 spg; 44% FG, 33% 3-PT, 75% FT per 33.4 mpg/34 GP
Christopher Mantis (Graduated; Lowell, IN) - 8.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.1 apg; 45% FG, 44% 3-PT, 92% FT per 19.9 mpg/34 GP
Jaden Clayton (Transferred to Pacific; Whitby, Canada) - 7.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.7 spg; 42% FG, 29% 3-PT, 77% FT per 32.2 mpg/34 GP

Preview:
Fourth year head coach Chris Markwood has certainly made his mark on the hardwood. The 43-year old is a proud Pine Tree State native (he even likes putting maple syrup in his coffee on occasion!). He played HS ball in South Portland and returned home to play for his state's flagship school following two seasons at Notre Dame. Markwood's time as team captain served him well in his transition to coaching just ten months later. He spent time as an assistant at his alma mater for five seasons before spending an additional 11 at various other spots in the northeast (Vermont, Northeastern, Boston College). In 2022, he returned to his alma mater for a third time as head coach. Nobody wants to see the Black Bears succeed more than Markwood, and the fact that he has returned to UMaine so many times is evidence of that.

Last year's Maine squad won 20 games for the first time in 21 years. That included a win at Duquesne (Tre scored 12 points on four made threes). The Black Bears came up just short in the conference championship game against Bryant, but it was still a very successful season. It continued the program's upward trajectory under Markwood, as the boys from Orono won 13 and 15 games in the first and second year respectively. This is a program that has never made the NCAA tournament and doesn't even have the resources that some of the other schools in the America East do. Prior to Markwood's arrival, Maine failed to even win ten games overall in a season for nine straight years. Thus, Maine has to win games with their defense and toughness, and Markwood's bunch has consistently done that. Per KenPom, the Black Bears have ranked better on defense than offense the last three years, and the past two squads have ranked inside the top 130 in terms of defensive efficiency. Maine has also bested their KenPom preseason mark every year so far under Markwood, which speaks to his coaching ability. Being able to go four in four may be tough with an unproven roster that has largely turned over, but if there was a coach to accomplish that it would be the guy that's currently in charge of the program. He is certainly well respected, as Maine is picked to finish second in the conference coming into the year despite all the roster changes.

The key to success for Maine last season was simple: win the possession battle. That is always a winning formula, but is especially useful when you aren't the most efficient offensively and need more bites of the apple to put points on the board. Maine was nationally good at turning teams over (24th nationally), but they were equally as adept in terms of taking care of the rock on the other side of the ball (49th nationally). Kellen Tynes and Jaden Clayton were the forces behind both these strengths, so losing them in a single offseason is beyond crushing. Tynes, a three-time America East Defensive Player of the Year honoree, led the nation in steals per game, while Clayton was right behind him at #2 in the America East (and also top 100 nationally). The duo also posted the two best assist-to-turnover marks in the conference (top 40 nationally). There's simply no way for a school like Maine to replace one of these guys in an offseason, let alone two.

Those generated steals helped boost the offense (the Black Bears ranked 84th in fast break points), but even in the halfcourt UMaine knocked down enough shots to keep teams honest (top 90 in both FG% and 3PFG%). AJ Lopez was the go-to player late in the shot clock, and he bailed the team out on a number of occasions with a made shot (although he played a big role in Maine's 331st ranked shot selection on offense that settled for a bunch of midrange shots in the halfcourt). Christopher Mantis was great in his role as the three-point specialist (44%) on the team. Both players are also gone (we'll see Lopez later in the season at Richmond).

Without the ballhawks around to generate transition opportunities and clutch shotmakers to boost offensive efficiency when defenses are set, Maine's offense carries major question marks coming into the year. Markwood clearly prefers to have his teams get back on defense rather than attack the offensive glass, as Maine was a dismal 353rd in OR% last season so second chance opportunities don't seem likely. The Black Bears also rarely go to the line (bottom 50 in free throw rate in 2024-25) so that's one less opportunity to get free points. Additionally, given the backcourt this year is less proven major regression when it comes to taking care of the ball feels inevitable. Defensively, when Maine struggled to turn teams over they often surrendered too many second chance opportunities to the other team (309th in defensive rebounds per game). Keep in mind that last statistic was with a guy like Quion Burns on the roster who ranked 85th nationally in defensive rebounds per game and he too graduated earlier in the year.

Ultimately, Maine's identity should continue to be defense-first this season, and hopefully that includes showing more of a commitment to rebounding on both sides of the ball. The strength of this year's roster is in the frontcourt, where a pair of 6'10" seniors in Killian Gribben and Keelan Steele return. The former player, a native of Ireland, was the more efficient of the two last year but the Canadian Steele started the majority of contests last year at the 5. Gribben has a nice touch around the rim and provides some good rim protection defensively (second in the America East in block rate at 8% last year). Per Hoop-Explorer, Maine was ten points per possession worse defensively when he sat. Steele put up similar counting stats in fewer minutes but will need to be better about not fouling, as he committed 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes last year. On the flip side, he had one of the highest FT rates on the team, so perhaps he can help put more points on the board by drawing fouls if he can improve on his 55% FT shooting mark. It would be interesting to see a twin-tower look with both Gribben and Steele on the floor at once for stretches. While this may compromise spacing (and goes against how Markwood likes to play), it might make Maine harder to keep off the glass.

Of course, someone needs to get Gribben and Steele the ball. In the backcourt, juniors Logan Carey and Isaac Bonilla are back. Carey is a candidate to see more minutes at the point this season after flashing some playmaking ability when given a chance. However, he is a black hole on offense. Per EvanMiya, he has a projected -1.78 OBPR, which is the worst mark among the expected contributing players on the roster. Opponents will sag off him and dare him to shoot, as he is a career 6/34 from distance. Bonilla is a bit better as a shooter but isn't quite the same level of defender. Walk-on Caleb Crawford saw spot minutes last year but isn't likely to solve any of the issues in the backcourt. Redshirt freshman Darius Lopes and/or true freshman Bashir N'Galang may be able to seize some minutes if none of the experienced guards can lock things down at the point. Markwood believes N'Galang has a similar mentality to Tynes and Clayton from last year.

Markwood did land a couple of reinforcements from the portal in Mekhi Gray (UMass Lowell) and Ryan Mabrey (Quinnipiac). Gray, a sixth-year senior, is unofficially "Mr. America East" as he is onto his third school in the same conference (prior to UML he was at NJIT). He never really found a role on a disappointing (and injury-plagued) Riverhawks squad last year, sitting out the entire second half of the year. Gray was productive back in his NJIT days, but as we saw last year NJIT has been terrible for a bit now. Back in 2021-22, he ranked 5th in the America East in FT rate but that was also four seasons ago and Gray will have to really improve his efficiency to take on the Lopez role from last year. I could see him starting given his experience, but he might be best served as a microwave scorer from off the bench at this point in his career.

Mabrey meanwhile is also on his third school (started at Miami OH). His most translatable skill is three-point shooting, as he has made 122 triples thus far in his career at a 34% clip. Unlike Gray, he did play for a respectable team last year but he is somewhat of a one-trick pony as an off-ball threat. Mabrey is not particularly efficient inside the arc, will certainly not help resolve Maine's rebounding issues, and per EvanMiya had the second worst DBPR (-1.18) among QU's top players. Markwood sees him as more of a combo guard, but he has yet to showcase those non-shooting skills thus far in college.

The two swing pieces on the roster appear to be SEMO transfer TJ Biel and Wichita State defect Yanis Bamba. On paper, both have the potential to provide defensive versatility with the ability to guard multiple positions. Biel, a graduate of the Edge School in Calgary (Bubu's same HS) has been a consistent rotation piece for okay Redhawk teams the last two seasons. He has three-level scoring ability and improved his shooting percentages a bit last year compared to his freshman campaign. Biel could be poised for a breakout this season as the assumed starter at the 4 spot. Bamba, yet another Canadian, is more of a wildcard as he saw garbage time minutes in just four games for a middling Wichita squad. Sophomore Amare Allen and freshman Joshua Ojuri are potential long-term options along the wing.

I've incredibly gone over 1,500 words without mentioning the player that the Orono community is excited to see most on the floor. Yes, Maine native Ace Flagg, the twin brother of this year's #1 NBA draft pick Cooper, is joining the team this year as a true freshman. He obviously has some skill having earned offers from West Virginia, St. Joe's, and GW a few years ago (although I'm pretty sure fellow Mainer Zak Boisvert was behind his recruitment and his chances of coming to GW effectively died after he left for SLU). Expectations for him this year will likely be unrealistic (he will probably serve as a complementary scorer, rebounder, and passer), but it wouldn't be surprising to see him start at some point this season, if not right away. Ace is a winner, having won three HS titles in Maine, Florida (Montverde), and most recently in North Carolina (Greensboro Day). It certainly doesn't hurt to have a player like that on any roster.

In terms of what I'm looking for in the opener, it's primarily general execution. I don't expect the team to be completely error-free, but hopefully turnovers will be limited (especially from CJ) and GW is able to finish the transition opportunities that they get. As I mentioned above, Maine tends to get back on defense instead of crashing the glass (maybe that changes this year given the personnel) so how GW operates on the run (assuming we'll see more of that this season) will be key. Rebounding will also be important, although I'm not sure Maine will test that. South Florida, the next opponent, definitely will.

Projected Score: GW 81, Maine 64. 93% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik gives us a 96% chance at a W.
 

Gwmayhem wrote:

Rising, so would the correct answer be to take away absolutely nothing from a competitive exhibition where it certainly appeared like both sides were trying hard to win?  You've been here long enough to know that this year's exhibition could have been a 25 point victory over Bowie State and many here would have had more than a few concerns.

And frankly, the only thing worse than that in my mind is the poster who would have witnessed that 25 point win over Bowie State and then declares here that this could be the year that GW reaches the Final 4 based solely on that result.

I think the point was it was a small sample size and since no one saw the Temple scrimmage there is no way for anyone who didn't see the Temple scrimmage to see if there were any patterns. But because it was Georgetown, all of a sudden it has an outsized meaning. Do you or anyone else really think either team showed a lot in that game? It was an exhibition and I am 100% sure that CC has things he didn't want to put on tape that he will use in the regular season that could have helped vs Georgetown. Cooley vs. GW as well. So that's why I don't get too bent out of shape over exhibitions.

Let's get a few regular season data points in place before we start evaluating where we are. Again, starting with Monday, it would be disappointing if anyone is still really concerning themselves with the Georgetown exhibition game. I hope LSF (or anyone else) isn't saying to himself in December "We are 12-1 {or any other reasonably good record] but damn it we lost that exhibition game to Georgetown." Lol.

My main point was whether the team was playing against Ge**getown or St. Leos, and whether it was an exhibition game or counted against our record, they did not look anywhere near ready to start the season.  17 turnovers, a step slow on defense and just outright bad shooting and yes...rust.   Further, the fact that I have now seen them play in a serious game for the first time this season and have seen the new comers play for the first time takes a bit of the first game excitement away from the true opener.   I have hardly written them off for the season.

I came away seeing it totally different from LSF.  I saw a deep, talented, athletic team - but one that wasn’t very relaxed in their first game in front of fans (all those airball threes, plus second half turnovers).  It was just the first game and I have no doubt we’ll improve. 

I don’t want to overlook Maine - a team that doesn’t turn it over and plays good d is the kind of lower level team they can challenge us - but I do think the USF game is going to be a real challenge (having studied them I think they will be very good this year) so we just need to keep improving and becoming confident in our rolls for the first and second games.

In any case, don't think the old slogan "As Maine goes, so goes the nation" applies to NCAA basketball future.

Gwmayhem wrote:

GWRising wrote:

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

My main point was whether the team was playing against Ge**getown or St. Leos, and whether it was an exhibition game or counted against our record, they did not look anywhere near ready to start the season.  17 turnovers, a step slow on defense and just outright bad shooting and yes...rust.   Further, the fact that I have now seen them play in a serious game for the first time this season and have seen the new comers play for the first time takes a bit of the first game excitement away from the true opener.   I have hardly written them off for the season.

What if they had beaten Georgetown and played great? Would that mean that they would not have to show up against Maine? If you watch almost every sport you begin to realize that Spring Training doesn't resemble the MLB regular season, NFL preseason isn't a great predictor of the NFL regular  season, etc. You are not supposed to be ready to start the season. Pre-season is exactly needed to prepare for the start the season. I would remind you that there will have been two more weeks of practice since the Georgetown game by the time Monday rolls around.

Rising, that's a ridiculous post.  You can't possibly be comparing NFL preseason games where dozens of guys who will not make the team play the most minutes, or MLB exhibition games where regulars often sit and squads are sometimes even split, to a GW exhibition game where several bench players did not even play and others like Bevins saw very limited minutes.  And to answer your question, had GW played great and beaten Georgetown, we would be well within our rights to feel better about the team at this moment in time.  Nobody is saying that they are down on the team or have less expectations for the team as a result of the Gtown game.  And, nobody is saying that a stronger performance in that game would mean we wouldn't really have to show up against Maine.

For the first of many, thank you DMVPiranha for an outstanding preview.  Considering how much Maine has lost from a season ago, their strong projection in the American East must mean that either Markwood can really coach, the American East is really bad, or that Ace Flagg is very Cooper-like.

C'mon Gwmayhem ... don't get easily fooled into over-thinking the result based on the optics of what appeared to be a regular season game versus a once hated rival with a pretty full house. That's what I was railing against all along.

Why would you feel better if we beat Georgetown? It's one data point of which you have no others. You wouldn't know if it was an outlier. You wouldn't know if Georgetown played to win or had a bad night. You don't know how good Georgetown is. Maybe they are better than anyone in the A-10, maybe not. You don't know whether we played to win. And by playing to win, I mean not whether or not the players or coaches wanted to win but whether the scout, the strategy and the rotations were based on trying to win like in the regular season.

I don't feel better or worse based on anything that happened in the Georgetown game because I don't have enough information to feel better or worse. Now if some of the things continue that were problems in the exhibition game versus different opponents, maybe I'll feel differently. But again based on a single preseason game, I don't know how you feel a certain way with so many variables at play. More data points are necessary.

What bench players didn't play? Moss was hurt and I believe one or both of the freshmen may redshirt. How many guys did you expect him to play given that? He played 10 guys. The rotation will likely be 8-9 guys most nights.