GW Hoops / A10 Forecast: Not Good

**Posted by Gwmayhem** 12/08/2022 10:24 am

You know how there are certain years where you can look at the OOC results and conclude that the conference has a legitimate chance to send 4 or 5 teams to the Dance? 2022-23 is not one of those years. Every conference team has lost at least 3 games except, and let me know if you had this threesome as the remaining conference 1 loss teams on Dec. 8, Fordham, UMASS and Duquesne.

From a NET ranking perspective, SLU leads the conference with a ranking of 80. UMASS is at 83, Fordham is at 99 and Duquesne is next at 101. Where are some of the usual suspects? VCU-144, SBU-147, Davidson-176, Richmond-178, Dayton-187, Loyola-269 and URI-307. (GW stands 11th at 206.)

All of this suggests the very real possibility of a one-bid league for what is now a 15 school conference. There's of course still the possibility of major OOC upsets but that clock is ticking pretty quickly.

**Posted by GWRising** 12/08/2022 12:34 pm

The A-10 is struggling this year. I didn't expect any different. Transfer defections. New coaches at 6 schools. Recruiting just so-so across the league. You are correct Gwmayhem ... currently, it looks like a 1 bid league with an outside shot at 2. Right now we are the 10th rated conference and barely ahead of the ASUN and WAC. Not good.

**Posted by GW0509** 12/08/2022 2:18 pm

I saw a tweet earlier that basically said the A-10's overall OOC record is actually better than the last couple of years, but the # of Q1/Q2 wins have gone down.

The NET was designed to overvalue P5 schools at the expense of mid majors like the A10. Not to say we deserve 4 AL bids, but it's not a surprise to see us all bunched in the mid to high 100s.

At this point we need to hope for the old A-10 special: SLU going something like 14-4 in conference and then losing in the A-10 title game.

**Posted by DC Native** 12/08/2022 3:58 pm

I've heard that the A10 is a one-bid league before and during many seasons past, but we always seem to manage to get a second team in, no matter how bad a year we're having.

**Posted by LA Colonial** 12/09/2022 10:23 am

I agree with GW0509 that the only path to two bids for the conference is St. Louis to finish at least 14-4 and then lose in the finals (or at least the semi-finals) of the A-10 tournament. St. Louis is the only conference team with at least arguably a non-conference tournament resume with wins over Memphis and Providence (in a semi-road game in Connecticut) and opportunities at home against Drake and Boise St. They have also been blown out by Maryland on a neutral court and by Iona. No one else has more than one quality win. I do not see enough opportunities for anyone else to build up their resume.

**Posted by Gwmayhem** 12/09/2022 12:00 pm

I'm not sure the conference has anything to blame but it's overall performance. Having enough Q1/Q2 wins is simply mandatory in order to receive at large bids. What is and will likely always be flawed is the paucity of true road games that P5 schools are willing to play against midmajors. If anything, the NET rankings are intended to help midmajors in this regard. For example, a road win might be considered a Q2 win while beating that same team at home could be a Q3 win. So the A10 gets more chances at Q1/Q2 wins by playing these road games; the problem of course is that it's much more difficult to win these games on the road.

DC Native, what you're saying is true when there is one and only one school who is in a position to receive an at large and then loses in the conference tournament. Like 2005-06 when we went undefeated in the conference regular season. Had we won the tournament, we would have been the only A10 member at the dance. We lost, so eventual tournament champ Xavier got in as well.

Two of the remaining three SLU OOC games are against #55 Boise State and #59 Drake, each at home. Winning both of these would go a long way towards putting SLU in a position to receive an at large, meaning they would have to play worse than anticipated in-conference (and fail to win the conference tournament) in order to miss the dance. I agree though that after SLU, there aren't really many candidates for a possible at large.