After we beat Dayton it did become clear a run through the A10 Tourney could happen

The Adams Bishop combo when we get just enough from the frontcourt is a dangerous recipe

Skittles wrote:

I'd start at winning the first game in the tourney. Winning it all for a team this inconsistent that has allowed multiple scoring streaks down the stretch is not just a reach but a hail mary. one thing at a time. Win a game. Then go from there

Agree.  Although historically just winning a second game in the tournament has felt like a hail mary.  Our last 3 coaches never did it.  The last time was all the way back in 2007 when Hobbs won the whole thing.  It doesn't matter if we're in the Pillow Fight or Double Bye, we can't seem to come back the next night and win a second game.  

Last edited by GW0509 (2/24/2023 1:48 pm)

We cannot be certain of a bye as of this point.  First my disclaimer...I haven't a clue as to how the A-10 tiebreakers work, but as of this date (including Sunday's games), we are only certain to finish with a better record than four teams, namely Loyola, URI, St. Joes and UMass.   The remaining 11 teams in the conference either have reached or surpassed 9 wins, or can get to 9 wins by winning their remaining 2 games.  Or to put it another way, it is theoretically possible for GW, Duquesne, Mason, Lasalle, Richmond, The Bonnies (who are now 8-9) and Davidson to all finish with 9 wins.  As 6 teams will have to play in the first round, we will have to finish ahead of 2 of the potential 9 win teams teams to get a first round bye based upon record, again not knowing what the tie breakers are.  Further, of the 4 teams with a maximum of 9 wins, only Lasalle plays a top 4 team (Dayton).  Conversely,,only Mason, GW and Duquesne can reach 10 wins, which guarantees a bye..  Bottom line...Wednesday at. Davidson is looking like a crucial game for us.  Win it and we are guaranteed a bye.  Lose it and we can see ourselves in a multi-team mix for a bye.  FYI...Davidson had a KenPom rating of 144 before they won at Duquesne.  Our KenPom is 216.  And we are playing there.   Lets see what we are made of.

Last edited by Long Suffering Fan (2/26/2023 4:39 pm)

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

We cannot be certain of a bye as of this point.  First my disclaimer...I haven't a clue as to how the A-10 tiebreakers work, but as of this date (including Sunday's games), we are only certain to finish with a better record than four teams, namely Loyola, URI, St. Joes and UMass.   The remaining 11 teams in the conference either have reached or surpassed 9 wins, or can get to 9 wins by winning their remaining 2 games.  Or to put it another way, it is theoretically possible for GW, Duquesne, Mason, Lasalle, Richmond, The Bonnies (who are now 8-9) and Davidson to all finish with 9 wins.  As 6 teams will have to play in the first round, we will have to finish ahead of 2 of the potential 9 2in teams teams to get a first round bye based upon record, again not knowing what the tie breakers are.  Further, of the 4 teams with 7 or 8 wins, only Lasalle plays a top 4 team (Dayton).  On the other hand,only Mason, GW and Duquesne can reach 10 wins, which guarantees a bye..  Bottom line...Wednesday at. Davidson is looking like a crucial game for us.  Win it and we are guaranteed a bye.  Lose it and we can see ourselves in a multi-team mix for a bye.

Good news for you LSF, I do know how they determine tiebreakers. https://atlantic10.com/news/2015/2/21/209901106.aspx

It starts with head to head and then goes to record against final standings. Meaning if you have a win against the top of the league and the other tied team doesn’t, you move above them. For example, if we end up tied with GMU, and they win against Fordham (and we lose at VCU), GMU has the tiebreaker because they have the better win against top of the conference (we both beat Dayton and lost to everyone else above us).

The short version is that we have to win one more game. Both are tough, but we have been a good road team this year, so I think the road game against a middle of the pack team is probably easier than winning at home versus the top team in the conference. Unfortunately, the Smith Center will be overrun by awful VCU fans on Saturday...

That's a masterful piece of analysis.  

I do not see a way that any team other than VCU can remotely count on at-large bid (and I don't see that either).  With our depth, I don't see us running the table from any seed position in the tournament, but it would be fun to try.  Regardless, we should be very proud of what this team has already accomplished versus media and other expectations.
 

When something gets stated again and again, there is a greater tendency to believe whatever this is as the truth.  I would not exempt NCAA committee members from this.

This appears to be the one season where bracketologists or anyone else who takes this seriously and puts out projected seedings, brackets, etc., are all in agreement that the A10 will not be sending an at large team to this year's dance.  Now to be fair, many of these forecast their automatic bids based on who is in first place at the time, so in the case of the A10, that would be VCU.  This of course does not definitively answer the question of whether VCU iwould be worthy of an at large.  This gets particularly thorny after considering that several of VCU's few losses came without their best player, Ace Baldwin.  Nevertheless, my sense is that this informal understanding exists that it's quote unquote OK or acceptable to have just 1 A10 school in the field this year.  It would obviously be a lot easier on the committee if VCU cuts down the nets in the championship game.

Time to also revisit one of the more incredible stats in all of college basketball:

A10 Champions

2022    Richmond
2021    St. Bonaventure
2020:   No Tournament
2019    Saint Louis
2018    Davidson
2017    Rhode Island
2016    Saint Joe's
2015    VCU

That's 7 different schools winning the tournament the 7 last times it was played.  And of course, the odds-on favorite to have won it in 2020 would have been an 8th school, Dayton.  

Last school other than the above 7 to have won the tournament:  Temple
Last current member school other than the above 7 to have won the tournament:  GW
Has Dayton ever won it?  Just once, in 2003.
Have any other current member schools won it?  UMASS won 5 in a row.  And Duquesne, who won the very first one.
Other non-members to have won it?   Temple 9 times, Xavier 4 times, Rutgers, Villanova, Pitt, West Virginia each won twice, and Penn State defeated GW in a final to win their only A10 title.

Reality check: The A-10 is weak this year and we are a 1 bid conference for the 1st time in how long?
I remote possibility of getting an at large bid is with VCU if they don't win the conference but take care of their last 2 games.

Because we are so weak this year, everyone has a chance to win the conference tourney this year. Of course the favorites will once again be VCU and Dayton but anything can happen, even for GW.

This year was a throw away year for GW and CC. CC will have us stronger next year (and hopefully each year after) but I have this small glimmer of hope we can pull out a few upsets next weekend in NY! We need to finish on a high note before the long off season.

With Lasalle losing to Dayton, there are now there are now 6 teams with a potential 9-9 record to end the season, namely GW (9-7), Duquesne (9-7)  George Mason (9-7], St. Bonaventure (8-9), Richmond (7-9) and Davidson (7-9).  Of those 6, 5 will get a first round 7=9ye.  It would be awfully nice of the Bonnies, Richmond or Davidson to lose of their 2 remaining games and make things easy for us.