GW Hoops / NCAA Tourney Thread

**Posted by GWRising** 3/30/2023 4:42 pm

I think we have differing standards here. A team could be hot to end the year but that doesn't mean we expect them to go to the Sweet 16 or beyond. Does that make them a failure? Conversely, a team that was not hot might also not be expected to go to the Sweet 16. Sometimes water just finds its level eventually.

**Posted by The Dude** 3/30/2023 10:25 pm

Free Quebec wrote:
It’s also important to look at who was not hot.

Purdue lost 4 of their last 8 regular season games, but got a 1 seed anyway after winning B10 tourney. (Though still 7-4 in last 11 doesn’t feel like a 1). They lost to a 16.

I wouldn’t agree that Duke was hot. They won the ACC tourney (conf tourney winners always overrated), but they lost their last two regular season games vs ncaa teams and just beat a bunch of lesser teams late.

MD and WVU both went 5-5 in their last 10, but got an 8-9 game - one of them had to win, and then that team wasn’t competitive with their 1 seed.

Nevada lost 3 straight to end the season, all vs non-tourney teams. They got embarrassed vs a not so good ASU team. Tourney would have been better served with a hot team than a team like NV that stunk in March.

ASU was nothing special late either, going 5-8 in their last 13 regular season games. That got ignored and a win over an unmotivated USC team got them a bid and a chance to play America’s coldest team (and then another cold team in TCU, who beat them).

Like Nevada, Providence lost 3 straight coming in (also lost 4 of 5 and 5 of 9) and were not competitive vs Kentucky (a team that lost to Vandy twice in a week coming in).

Iowa St went 3-7 down the stretch, still got a 6 seed… and their form held with them losing to an 11.

Auburn was also ice cold. 4-6 last ten, 5-9 last 14. They drew a not hot Iowa team (5-5 last ten - lost last two games both to non-postseason teams). One of them had to win, but of course auburn, who bucked their trend by beating Iowa, got smoked vs their 1 seed.

NC St limped in at 5-5 last ten and didn’t beat an ncaa team after Jan 14, and not surprisingly got thumped in round 1.

Boise St lost 3 of their last 5, and wasn’t that competitive with Northwestern (another cold team they lost 4 of 5 coming in, although was 6-4 in their last 10).

Illinois lost 3 out 4 and went 4-6 in their last 10. Got thumped by a cold Arkansas that went 3-6 to close.

One clear theme is that a lot of these 6-11 seeds limped in to the tourney, and the ones who didn’t play each other tended to do poorly (though obviously not always).

(As an aside, Texas A&M and Penn St were both hot teams going 8-2 last 10, but drew each other, which was pretty unlucky for them.).

Exactly, and this pattern repeats itself year after year.

**Posted by Free Quebec** 3/31/2023 7:14 am

GWRising wrote:
I think we have differing standards here. A team could be hot to end the year but that doesn't mean we expect them to go to the Sweet 16 or beyond. Does that make them a failure? Conversely, a team that was not hot might also not be expected to go to the Sweet 16. Sometimes water just finds its level eventually.

I agree with this. There are cold teams that will sometimes turn it on in the tourney and hot teams that flame out. I was trying to show a lot of the cold teams did especially poorly (though if they faced another cold team, someone has to win).

But my point really is that if they consider how a team is playing over their last 10 games, like they used to, we’ll get fewer of these mediocre big money teams and more of the North Texas or UAB type schools that can hold their own just as well. If how a team was playing late were factored in, then maybe a team like Illinois (which unsurprisingly was not that competitive in their 8-9 game) would drop down to an 11 or 12 seed or the play-in game, and a hot team like Charleston or Oral Roberts could move up and get (on paper) an easier first round matchup. Those two teams were popular upset picks because they were playing well, but a team that has been playing terribly in Illinois wasn’t picked by anyone who had been watching them down the stretch.

To repeat myself, though, they’ll never reinstate the last 10 criteria precisely because it would hurt the Illinoises of the world.

**Posted by The Dude** 3/31/2023 12:31 pm

Free Quebec wrote:
they’ll never reinstate the last 10 criteria precisely because it would hurt the Illinoises of the world.

Agreed, this certainly contributes although I think 90% of the issue is the Quad 1 nonsense.

So contrived, so hand picked to jam in those mediocre Power 5s. Unless we change that we're going to have the same 35 to 5 Power 5 non Power 5 at large bid situation

Naturally North Texas and UAB play the NIT Final. Should've had both and the Dance could easily do without worst 8 Power 5s that took their spots

**Posted by The Dude** 4/01/2023 12:41 am

Well, just in case there was any doubt ....
Following a record audience for the first round of the men's NCAA tournament, upsets over the first two weeks have seemingly taken a toll on the ratings.
The tournament is averaging 9.11 million viewers through the regional finals, down 6% from 2022. This after the first round on March 16-17 averaged 9.2 million to set a record for the most-watched round of 64.
So after getting a dream Final Four field last year, CBS and Turner Sports have something very different this weekend with Florida Atlantic, Miami, San Diego State and UConn making it to Houston.
"The public is telling us that they would rather see the blue bloods," said former CBS Sports president Neal Pilson, who now runs his own sports television consulting company. "The ratings support that. I think it's because they're not familiar with teams like San Diego State, Miami or FAU. There was relatively little press attention paid to those teams during the year.

**Posted by GWRising** 4/01/2023 9:40 am

The Dude wrote:
Well, just in case there was any doubt ....
Following a record audience for the first round of the men's NCAA tournament, upsets over the first two weeks have seemingly taken a toll on the ratings.
The tournament is averaging 9.11 million viewers through the regional finals, down 6% from 2022. This after the first round on March 16-17 averaged 9.2 million to set a record for the most-watched round of 64.
So after getting a dream Final Four field last year, CBS and Turner Sports have something very different this weekend with Florida Atlantic, Miami, San Diego State and UConn making it to Houston.
"The public is telling us that they would rather see the blue bloods," said former CBS Sports president Neal Pilson, who now runs his own sports television consulting company. "The ratings support that. I think it's because they're not familiar with teams like San Diego State, Miami or FAU. There was relatively little press attention paid to those teams during the year.

Secondary market ticket prices are down as well.

All of this will lead the P5 to continue to try and consolidate power in the big schools. They will argue while the Florida Atlantic's are great stories we don't really need them financially and if anything they hurt the bottom line. More fuel for those who want to break apart the NCAA. It's coming ladies and gentlemen. It's just a matter of when.

**Posted by Merrick** 4/01/2023 9:54 am

All about gambling and busted brackets too. Fewer viewers when there is no personal stake.

**Posted by Skittles** 4/01/2023 10:31 am

Merrick wrote:
All about gambling and busted brackets too. Fewer viewers when there is no personal stake.

Yeah the first week I stopped by a casino and saw hundreds of people around the sports book. Went to that same spot same time the second week and I don’t even think a hundred people were there. This week there might be less.

**Posted by Free Quebec** 4/01/2023 5:09 pm

Merrick wrote:
All about gambling and busted brackets too. Fewer viewers when there is no personal stake.

This. It’s the brackets.

**Posted by The Dude** 4/01/2023 10:19 pm

Great Finish first game. Thriller

UConn and Danny Hurley to The National Title Game!

Good for the A10 I'd say since he'll always be somewhat associated With Rhode Island

An absolutely dominant run to the title game for UConn

**Posted by F Street** 4/03/2023 1:18 pm

https://goaztecs.com/news/2023/3/28/mens-basketball-press-conference.aspx
Great Coach Dutcher comments on how to build a great team..
Build an arena that impress recruits
Recruit athletes who are good students and better citizens
Some coaches do not want to move homes every two years

**Posted by GW Alum Abroad** 4/03/2023 8:54 pm

Every year I watch the NCAA Championship Game and think "If only, just once".
I presume I am not the only one here with that thought.

**Posted by DC Native** 4/03/2023 9:32 pm

Yup, looks like SD State is going to join Memphis, Butler, and Gonzaga as non power conference teams that fell one game short. Smh…

**Posted by The Dude** 4/03/2023 10:36 pm

UConn and Danny Hurley are National Champions!

One of the all time dominant runs to the title

Great run for San Diego St great year for college basketball

**Posted by DC Native** 4/03/2023 10:38 pm

Oh well, the cartels continue their monopoly another year. Its been 33 years since UNLV won it in 1990.

**Posted by The Dude** 4/04/2023 11:48 am

Villanova and UConn titles though quite a departure from the old blue bloods.

The Final Four was 50% non Power 5 including. Final 4 run from Florida Atlantic

Compare that to college football....