I'd always lean to data based, predictive models, over one human just making lists. 

We could finish a good deal better than 14th, and hopefully do, but his data model says we're last in the A10.

 

If between 5th and 9th place could be viewed as overstating expectations, how pathetic have we become?
Even for those who know better (all of us who have been GW fans) , this is the time of the year to believe that we can finally put it together. No reason, why we can't if we've had such a major upgrade in talent, Ira Lee injury or not.

Pretty cool, you're able to contact him?

273! yikes.  Well, not all that surprising, but hopefully WE ARE

 

Fwiw, KenPom, who has a similar model to Torvik, has talked about how inaccurate pre-season predictions can be because beyond the top 25 or so freshman, they assume all the rest are basically replacement level and because it’s so hard for a model to predict the impact of a transfer in a new role.

It’s a fun baseline; but I wouldn’t look a it as predictive.

FWIW, following are the NCAA's preseason Top 25 football rankings with the current top 25 status in parens.  A lot of games remain to be played, but even among the top 10 you see teams dropping out with 10 new entrants in rankings 9-24.  

Just play the games and enjoy!

1. Alabama (5)
2. Clemson (OUT)
3. Oklahoma (4)
4. Georgia (1)
5. Iowa State (OUT)
6. Ohio State (6)
7. Texas A&M
8. Cincinnati (3)
9. Oregon (9)
10. Iowa (2) 
11. LSU (OUT)
12. Miami (OUT)
13. Notre Dame (14)
14. North Carolina (OUT)
15. Wisconsin (OUT) 
16. Indiana (OUT)
17. Florida (20)
18. Texas (25)
19. Coastal Carolina (15)
20. Ole Miss (13)
21. Penn State (8)
22. Washington (OUT) 
23. Arizona State (18)
24. USC (OUT)
25. Louisiana (OUT)
Michigan (9)
Michigan State (10)
Kentucky (11)
Oklahoma State (12)
Wake Forest (16)
Arkansas (17) 
BYU (18)
NC State (22)
SMU (23)
SD State (24)
 

Last edited by Merrick (10/14/2021 9:03 am)

No, it absolutely isn't.  The ;point is to suggest that pre-season predictions are often wrong and in the overall scheme of things, always meaningless.   I just went back and looked at Sports Illustrated's NFL predictions.  Unless the Arizona Cardinals lose their final 12 games, SI got that one wrong.  Same is true for the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Jacksonville Jaguars need to go 9-3 to equal the SI prediction. 

Blind worship needn't be a prerequisite to support this program.  This absolutely speaks to credibility.  How credible should one be perceived if their intent is to not be at all disappointed regardless of the season's results?  It's no better than the fan who is constantly disappointed even when their team performs at maximum efficiency.

I'll describe how I feel entering this season....hopeful.  Not of an A10 Championship (though this would be something) but of a season filled with more wins, few if any bad losses, and an overall noticeable improvement.  I believe enough talent has been put in place where something along the lines of a 9th place finish, not an exceptionally lofty goal but a realistically attainable one, should be within reach.  Lindy's and basketballarticles.com each forecast a 9th place finish as well.  It's both a doable goal and a hopeful one.  Does that mean it would be greatly disappointing to finish in 10th place?  No.  Does it mean that a 13th or 14th place finish would be disappointing?  Yes it does.

Yes, and the lightly regarded Lindy's Sports has only been publishing annual sports previews for 40 years.  LOL.

The Dude wrote:

Well the respected data site Bart Torvik says the data has us #273

Likely going to be very long year. 245 in CBS sports.

Not sure Alabama college football losing 1 game and dropping 4 spots has much relevance here

I know you have trouble with reading comprehension but perhaps you should re-read Free Quebec's post on 10/13.