GW Hoops

You are not logged in. Would you like to login or register?



10/10/2021 12:35 am  #1


Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

Bart Torvik has a KenPom type site using data for predictive models and assessing teams strength.

GW comes in, 14th in the A10 at 258.   A projected 11-18 and 5-13 in league play.

The Bonnies are #1 in the A10, and by a wide margin at 16.  
He's got Richmond in 2nd at 43, and both teams in the Dance.

https://barttorvik.com/

 

10/10/2021 6:11 am  #2


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

I do enjoy reading the previews.  However I think  most of these preseason previews are going to be inaccurate this year for a few reasons.
1.  So much turnover in rosters.  Players with limited stats as a reserve on 1 team may have a much larger role on others.
2.  Last years stats (pace of play for example) was very skewed due to the pandemic.

Hoping for a better season than 11 wins.  Am a season ticket holder and it is tough to drive to the campus when the team is obviously outclassed going in.

 

10/10/2021 8:55 pm  #3


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

I'd always lean to data based, predictive models, over one human just making lists. 

We could finish a good deal better than 14th, and hopefully do, but his data model says we're last in the A10.

 

     Thread Starter
 

10/11/2021 1:34 pm  #4


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

So question for GWrising, (and others?)  do you think predicting a 5th place finish, with "worst case scenario 9th" is over-stating expectations, considering things like having a 14th place ranking in Bart Torvik?


 

     Thread Starter
 

10/11/2021 5:21 pm  #5


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

If between 5th and 9th place could be viewed as overstating expectations, how pathetic have we become?
Even for those who know better (all of us who have been GW fans) , this is the time of the year to believe that we can finally put it together. No reason, why we can't if we've had such a major upgrade in talent, Ira Lee injury or not.

 

10/11/2021 8:35 pm  #6


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

I let Torvik know that Ira Lee is out for the year.  We’re now #273.  Defense seems to be the problem according to the details page.

Last edited by BM (10/11/2021 8:36 pm)

 

10/11/2021 9:47 pm  #7


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

Pretty cool, you're able to contact him?

273! yikes.  Well, not all that surprising, but hopefully WE ARE

 

     Thread Starter
 

10/13/2021 6:22 pm  #8


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

CBS Sport has us 13th in the A10 and  #245 overall. and at least 45 spots below the #12 A10 team

245. George Washington: The Colonials should have four double-digit scorers, led by junior lead guard James Bishop. GW needs to force the issue with its man-to-man defense in order to scoot up in the A-10. 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-countdown-of-every-team-begins-with-nos-358-201-for-the-2021-22-season/
 

Last edited by The Dude (10/13/2021 6:28 pm)

     Thread Starter
 

10/13/2021 8:24 pm  #9


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

Fwiw, KenPom, who has a similar model to Torvik, has talked about how inaccurate pre-season predictions can be because beyond the top 25 or so freshman, they assume all the rest are basically replacement level and because it’s so hard for a model to predict the impact of a transfer in a new role.

It’s a fun baseline; but I wouldn’t look a it as predictive.

 

10/13/2021 10:14 pm  #10


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

Well, here's where the A10 finished in 2021.

GW was 13th, #213, the top 10 A10 teams, were in the top 129. So a big drop to the bottom 4.
and then we lost Battle an Moyer.

https://barttorvik.com/trank.php?year=2021&sort=&lastx=0&firstx=&hteam=&t2value=&conlimit=A10&state=All&begin=20201101&end=20210501&top=0&quad=5&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0#
 

     Thread Starter
 

10/14/2021 8:44 am  #11


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

FWIW, following are the NCAA's preseason Top 25 football rankings with the current top 25 status in parens.  A lot of games remain to be played, but even among the top 10 you see teams dropping out with 10 new entrants in rankings 9-24.  

Just play the games and enjoy!

1. Alabama (5)
2. Clemson (OUT)
3. Oklahoma (4)
4. Georgia (1)
5. Iowa State (OUT)
6. Ohio State (6)
7. Texas A&M
8. Cincinnati (3)
9. Oregon (9)
10. Iowa (2) 
11. LSU (OUT)
12. Miami (OUT)
13. Notre Dame (14)
14. North Carolina (OUT)
15. Wisconsin (OUT) 
16. Indiana (OUT)
17. Florida (20)
18. Texas (25)
19. Coastal Carolina (15)
20. Ole Miss (13)
21. Penn State (8)
22. Washington (OUT) 
23. Arizona State (18)
24. USC (OUT)
25. Louisiana (OUT)
Michigan (9)
Michigan State (10)
Kentucky (11)
Oklahoma State (12)
Wake Forest (16)
Arkansas (17) 
BYU (18)
NC State (22)
SMU (23)
SD State (24)
 

Last edited by Merrick (10/14/2021 9:03 am)

 

10/14/2021 6:16 pm  #12


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

Apples to oranges, isn't it?

     Thread Starter
 

10/15/2021 8:32 am  #13


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

No, it absolutely isn't.  The ;point is to suggest that pre-season predictions are often wrong and in the overall scheme of things, always meaningless.   I just went back and looked at Sports Illustrated's NFL predictions.  Unless the Arizona Cardinals lose their final 12 games, SI got that one wrong.  Same is true for the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Jacksonville Jaguars need to go 9-3 to equal the SI prediction. 

Blind worship needn't be a prerequisite to support this program.  This absolutely speaks to credibility.  How credible should one be perceived if their intent is to not be at all disappointed regardless of the season's results?  It's no better than the fan who is constantly disappointed even when their team performs at maximum efficiency.

I'll describe how I feel entering this season....hopeful.  Not of an A10 Championship (though this would be something) but of a season filled with more wins, few if any bad losses, and an overall noticeable improvement.  I believe enough talent has been put in place where something along the lines of a 9th place finish, not an exceptionally lofty goal but a realistically attainable one, should be within reach.  Lindy's and basketballarticles.com each forecast a 9th place finish as well.  It's both a doable goal and a hopeful one.  Does that mean it would be greatly disappointing to finish in 10th place?  No.  Does it mean that a 13th or 14th place finish would be disappointing?  Yes it does.

 

10/15/2021 10:57 am  #14


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

Well the respected data site Bart Torvik says the data has us #273

Likely going to be very long year. 245 in CBS sports.

Not sure Alabama college football losing 1 game and dropping 4 spots has much relevance here

     Thread Starter
 

10/15/2021 11:27 am  #15


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

Yes, and the lightly regarded Lindy's Sports has only been publishing annual sports previews for 40 years.  LOL.

 

10/15/2021 12:12 pm  #16


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

This is one beaten down fan base.

 

10/15/2021 4:20 pm  #17


Re: Bart Torvik 2021/22 Predictions

The Dude wrote:

Well the respected data site Bart Torvik says the data has us #273

Likely going to be very long year. 245 in CBS sports.

Not sure Alabama college football losing 1 game and dropping 4 spots has much relevance here

I know you have trouble with reading comprehension but perhaps you should re-read Free Quebec's post on 10/13.

 

Board footera

 

Powered by Boardhost. Create a Free Forum