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Coppin State Eagles

Date/Time: Wednesday December 8th @ 6:30 PM ET at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, DC.
TV: ESPN+
Preseason Ranks: 351st (KenPom), 317th (Bart Torvik), 329th (CBS), 296th (SI)
2020-21 Record: 9-13, 8-4 (T-2nd in MEAC)
2021-22 Projected Record: 9-22, 7-7 (4th in MEAC)

Coach: Juan Dixon, 33-85 in four seasons at Coppin State (27-33 in MEAC play). Dixon attended Calvert Hall in Towson and comes from a sports family - his half brother played at Pittsburgh and his cousin played football at San Jose State. Dixon had a storied career at Maryland, taking over as the school's all-time leading scorer and tallying over 2,000 points for his career. He played nine seasons in the NBA with stops at Washington, Portland, Toronto, and Detroit. After getting cut in 2009, Dixon spent three years around Europe playing in Greece, Spain, and Turkey. He returned to Maryland as a special assistant under Turgeon for a few seasons before coaching the UDC women's basketball team. Not quite sure what Coppin State saw from that 3-25 record he had from that lone season at UDC, but Dixon's teams have played tough at the very least, especially on the defensive end. His teams have also steadily improved each year as well.

Head-to-Head: 3-1. We beat the Eagles 85-69 in what would be our only OOC win of the season in 2020-21. One stat that really pops out is the fact that we outrebounded the smaller Eagles 55-31. That's a category to watch tonight as it feels we have lost the rebounding battle by 10+ pretty much all season. We had three players that finished with double-doubles: Jamison (14 points, 13 rebounds), Matt (19 points, 11 rebounds), and Chase (15 points, 16 rebounds). James came close to making it four and he even flirted with a triple-double (20 points, 8 rebounds, 9 assists). The 16 point win is impressive given Coppin made eight more threes than us in the game. The other key to the game: we shot twice as many free throws as the Eagles. Getting to the line has been a struggle this season but hopefully we get to the hoop as much as possible in this one as our offense has struggled to put up points at times.

Offensive Efficiency: 352nd (KenPom), 331st (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 345th (KenPom), 270th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 3rd (KenPom), 1st (Bart Torvik) The Eagles have slowed things down since the preseason, and of course by slowed I mean they are "only" 37th in pace. Expecting another high possession game in this one.
Returning Minutes: 27.6% (338th in country) Finally going up against less continuity - good!

Key Returning Players:
Nendah Tarke (Freshman; Gaithersburg, MD) 9.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.7 SPG; 50% FG, 33% 3-PT, 62% FT
       2020-21 vs. GW: 1 point, 3 rebounds, 1 steal; 0-2 FG, 0-1 3-PT, 1-2 FT in 13 minutes.
Kyle Cardaci (RS Sophomore; Holmdel, NJ) 9.3 PPG, 3 RPG, 1 APG; 43% FG, 40% 3-PT, 84% FT
       2020-21 vs. GW: 6 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists; 2-11 FG, 2-11 3-PT in 29 minutes.

Key Losses:
Anthony Tarke (Graduated; Gaithersburg, MD) 16.1 PPG. 8.2 RPG, 3.5 APG, 2.6 SPG, 1.9 BPG; 47% FG, 32% 3-PT, 56% FT
DeJuan Clayton (Transferred to Hartford; Bowie, MD) 14.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.6 SPG; 35% FG, 28% 3-PT, 78% FT
Koby Thomas (Left Early for Pro Career; Philadelphia, PA) 12.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1 APG, 1.4 SPG; 41% FG, 19% 3-PT, 56% FT
Yuat Alok (Transferred to New Mexico State; Auckland, New Zealand) 9.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG; 56% FG, 41% 3-PT, 58% FT

Comments:
The 2020-21 season was Juan Dixon's best in four seasons at Coppin State. Despite 10 postponed/canceled games throughout the season, the Eagles went 8-4 in the MEAC, the best mark in the northern division and finished in the top 300 in KenPom (for any MEAC team, that's a success for sure). To minimize travel, the conference split into northern and southern divisions. While that meant that the Eagles got to avoid the tough North Carolina opponents (A&T and Central), the Eagles went 3-1 against the well-coached (and MEAC representative in the tournament) Norfolk State. They probably could have won more games had Maryland Eastern Shore not opted out for the season (more on them later) along with Bethune-Cookman.

The 2021-22 season presents as good of a chance as ever for the Eagles to make the dance with Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman departing for the SWAC and North Carolina A&T headed to the Big South. While Norfolk State will remain the favorite to cut down the nets in March, at least the Eagles can always look back on that magical 1997 tournament win against the #2 South Carolina Gamecocks in the first round.

Dixon faces a major challenge this season with four double figure scorers departing. The good news is that Coppin State's breakneck pace offensively meant they went fairly deep into their bench last season and many freshmen and sophomores gained some valuable experience. The bad news is that one of the players departing is Anthony Tarke (the MEAC player of the year who did dang near everything and was frankly overqualified in the league) and another one of the players leaving is DeJuan Clayton, the steady presence at the point who had been in the Coppin State program for four years.

This leaves the Eagles with 10 players who will either have three or four years of eligibility remaining in college basketball. Anthony's younger bro Nendah Tarke leads the way after playing key minutes right away in his first year. Nendah's impact could be felt on both sides of the ball, much like Anthony. He shot over 50% from the field (one of the best marks on the team) and proved to be a good fit in Coppin's pressure scheme, a trademark of many MEAC teams. Tarke averaged nearly 2 steals a game.

The other key returner is Kyle Cardaci, a former JUCO/Bryant Bulldog that was far and away the best three point shooter on the team (40% on the year while Coppin State shot 30% as a team). Cardaci also made nearly twice as many threes (54) as the player who was second on the team. He doesn't do too much else but we can't bank on another 2-11 performance from the 6-2 guard. Cardaci is off to a very slow start this season.

Outside of Isaiah Gross, everyone else is a newcomer to Coppin State in 2020-21. Gross suffered a couple injuries last season, but will have to significantly improve his efficiency if he wants to see more time this season.

The two headliners are Jesse Zarzuela and Tyree Corbett, who both return to the D1 ranks after playing a year at JUCO. Zarzuela (UTEP) is expected to take the Anthony Tarke role in the offense (who also came to Baltimore from UTEP funnily enough). He is somewhat of a "high volume scorer" due to his relative inefficiency, although he was great at his last stop. Zarzuela adds a crucial ball handler to the offense, although for every good pass he makes he commits a turnover to cancel things out. Corbett (Alcorn State) is a multi-positional wing who is a strong rebounder, a much needed presence for a Coppin State team that routinely gets killed on the boards.

Behind Tarke, Cardaci, Zarzuela, and Corbett CSU has a bevy of role players. I am probably going to skip over a few because several have been in and out due to injury and have anyways been highly inefficient even when they've played. Justin Steers, Mike Hood (Montana State), and Reggie James add depth in the backcourt. Steers returns to Coppin State after "riding" the pine at Rider. Hood shined at a previous JUCO stop but is still looking to find his stroke at the D1 level. James is easily the most interesting of the trio. He has shot the ball well when on the court and is a fairly strong defender on the other end. In the frontcourt, Daniel Titus and Sita Conteh will provide insurance. Titus, an Australian, has so far had a poor showing when he's played but at the very least provides a floor stretching option on offense, a trait Dixon values. Conteh provides experience as the lone senior on the team after coming over from Austin Peay. He too isn't afraid to launch from distance (7/16 on the year ain't bad) but none of these guys are really helping Corbett on the boards down low all that much.

The keys to the game are rebounding and FT margin. As you can tell above, Coppin State is not exactly an imposing team on the boards, so we need to win that battle without a doubt to get a W. The Eagles are actually pretty respectable from the line on an otherwise brutal offense so staying out of foul trouble is a must. If we win the FT battle, I think we have the game unless the Eagles have an uncharacteristic game from distance. Finally, CSU does average 8 steals a game so we can't afford to have mental lapses in the game (as Bishop sometimes does late in games handling the ball). 

Projected Score: GW 73, Coppin State 67. 73% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 76.7% chance to win. We open as a 7.5 home favorite. It's scary that my mind thinks that number is too high. There are fewer than 40 teams in D1 with a worse W-L percentage than us currently but fortunately Coppin State is one of them.
 

Tonight is the start of a 24 game winning streak culminating in an Atlantic 10 Championship in Washington, DC.  The day after GW is eliminated at the dance, Jamion Christian announces that he is leaving GW to become the new head coach at the University of Maryland.  In a prepared statement, it is announced that JC was allowed to get out of his GW contract in exchange for Maryland agreeing to play the Colonials three times over the next 11 years.  All meetings will take place in College Park.

In all seriousness, we just need a win. I don't care if it's over the School Without Walls.

Mentzinger wrote:

6:30 tip. Don't be late and miss another hot start by the Colonials.

Like the Masters not starting until the back 9 on Sunday, GW Men’s Basketball doesn’t start until the opening minutes of the second half.

This place is deserted, which is completely to be expected considering it's a 2-8 team playing a 1-11 team on a Wednesday night. The free GW bucket hats didn't get the students to come out in droves... who would have thought?

I almost came for the free bucket hat but decided to go home after work instead.  Maybe they'll have some leftovers on Monday.

Brayon Freeman channeling his inner Marlon Wayans from "Don't Be A Menace" tonight

Is missed layups a stat? If so, we’d lead the nation.

Shot 75% (6-8) from three in the half.