alleninxis wrote:

Do we have any idea on when we were back at practice? I assume we'll have a full roster but who knows 

2 days of full team practices so far. Limited practices/workouts before that.

Dayton Flyers

Date/Time: Saturday January 8th @ 12:00 PM ET at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, DC.
TV: USA Network. Former GMU coach Dave Paulsen will be calling the game.
Preseason Ranks: 84th (KenPom), 117th (Bart Torvik), 71st (CBS), 67th (SI)
2020-21 Record: 14-10, 9-7 (7th in A10)
2021-22 Projected Record: 17-12, 9-7 (6th in A10)

Coach: Anthony Grant, 78-41 in four seasons at Dayton with a pair of NIT appearances (and a likely memorable NCAA run had COVID not ruined everything). Prior to returning to his alma mater, Grant spent three years at VCU and six years at Alabama. The Rams were still a member of the CAA at the time, but he was absolutely dominant there - winning 75% of games and 83% of conference games (VCU finished first all three years). Moving up a couple levels to the SEC proved to be significantly harder, but Grant held his own - winning north of 50% of games both in and out of conference. Unfortunately, he only had one NCAA berth to show for it (along with three NIT appearances) which wasn't enough to keep his job. Through four years at Dayton, it seems apparent that Grant will have some very strong seasons but will follow them up with others where he hovers closer to .500. I do wonder long-term whether that will be enough even at Dayton where they are likely chasing a Big East invitation down the line (if Xavier allows that). Grant averaged nearly 12 points/7 rebounds a game during his playing career at Dayton. He got into coaching a season later with stops as an assistant at his former high school in Miami, Stetson, Marshall, and Florida. Grant has won coach of the year in both the A10 (2020) and CAA (2007).

Head-to-Head: 18-20, although Dayton has won the last four meetings. We fell 67-54 last season as the home team playing at Mason's EagleBank Arena. Dayton got off to a double digit lead fairly early in the first half (first five minutes of the game) and never really looked back, although we did threaten a few times after halftime. I remember the first 20 minutes being an absolute disaster. That really bad zone defense we had been playing was exposed time after time in the corners and Dayton torched us over and over again from distance. I believe they made seven threes before halftime alone. We had a poor shooting night - just 37% from the field, 21% from distance, and 64% from the line while Dayton shot 52% from the field, 45% from distance, and 71% from the FT line. The one thing we did do well was get to the line, shooting 12 more free throws than the Flyers. Bishop led the way with 17 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. Ricky added 13 points and 8 rebounds in just his second game in a GW uniform, and Sloan scored 10 points off the bench in what was probably one of his best games at GW (despite a 2-10 shooting night). Jamison was out due to suffering a concussion the previous week in practice.

Offensive Efficiency: 112th (KenPom), 95th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 95th (KenPom), 108th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 324th (KenPom), 325th (Bart Torvik) The tempo battle will be interesting to watch - we have played fairly fast this season compared to the Flyers. I wonder if their slow tempo is partly due to being more of a frontcourt oriented team, although Grant has historically never had any of his teams play fast.
Returning Minutes: 46.4% (267th in country)

Key Returning Players:
Mustapha Amzil (Freshman; Kotka, Finland) 9.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.3 APG; 50% FG, 38% 3-PT, 77% FT
       Last season vs. GW: 10 points, 7 rebounds; 3-8 FG, 1-3 3-PT, 3-4 FT in 35 minutes.
Zimife 'Zimi' Nwokeji (RS Freshman; Quincy, FL) 5.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG; 45% FG, 32% 3-PT, 74% FT
       Last season vs. GW: 6 points, 4 rebounds; 3-4 FG, 0-1 FT in 18 minutes.
Elijah Weaver (Junior; Cocoa, FL) 5.4 PPG, 2 RPG, 2.4 APG; 43% FG, 36% 3-PT, 72% FT
       Last season vs. GW: 5 points, 6 assists; 2-5 FG, 1-2 3-PT in 23 minutes.

Key Losses:
Jalen Crutcher (Graduated; Memphis, TN) 17.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 4.8 APG; 46% FG, 37% 3-PT, 76% FT
Ibi Watson (Graduated; Pickerington, OH) 15.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.9 APG; 47% FG, 42% 3-PT, 76% FT
Chase Johnson (Left Team; Ripley, WV) 12.2 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.8 APG; 60% FG, 71% 3-PT, 75% FT (5 games played)
Rodney Chatman (Transferred to Vanderbilt; Lithonia, GA) 7.9 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.8 SPG; 44% FG, 22% 3-PT, 53% FT
Jordy Tshimanga (Graduated; Montreal, Canada) 6.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG; 60% FG, 58% FT

Comments:
The odds were stacked against Dayton in 2020-21. After a truly special season where the Flyers went 29-2 (and undefeated in the A10), it was always going to be tough to meet expectations. I'm not saying that there was no understanding that the Flyers were going to take a step back without Obi Toppin (along with other "know your role" players like Landers and Mikesell), but there was somewhat of an expectation that the Flyers would remain a contender in the A10. A veteran backcourt led by Crutcher and Watson returned, but the same magic from the 2019-20 team was just missing.

The Flyers were never going to be the second best team in the nation on offense again, and COVID without a doubt hurt any chances of momentum. Losing to Fordham and La Salle within a week though was something that no one saw coming, but that pretty much summed up Dayton's season - inconsistency. They came out on top against top teams like Bonaventure and SLU, but were unable to figure out the teams towards the bottom of the conference (also fell to St. Joe's later in the year). The Flyers did qualify for the NIT, but lost in the first round to Memphis, the eventual champion.

With Dayton's veteran backcourt trio in Crutcher, Watson, and defensive menace Chatman departing, this year's team looks like night and day compared to the Dayton teams in the recent past (or should I say night and Dayton hehe). Just two players stand under 6'6", and I always think of Dayton as a guard-focused team. I do wonder if this shift in identity led to some growing pains early on. Dayton suffered a three game losing streak early in OOC play against not exactly strong competition. Like us, they fell to a pesky UMass Lowell team (who I still don't think is particularly good given how they've started conference play), Lipscomb, and a really bad Austin Peay team that is rebuilding under former Duke assistant Nate James. The Flyers did follow that up by notching wins over Miami (FL), Kansas, and Belmont so it does appear that they've figured some things out since then. They probably finish somewhere in the middle of the league this season (but have the talent for sure to finish a lot higher).

As mentioned, it starts with the frontcourt for the Flyers this season led by Georgia transfer Toumani Camara and true freshman Daron Holmes II. Let me first congratulate Camara for getting the heck out of UGA because Crean's squad has really fallen off a cliff (how do you lose to the other GW squad Gardner-Webb by 17 at home??). There are other contenders (cough cough, Oregon State) but the Bulldogs have to be in the mix for worst P6 team in the country. Anyways, back to Camara. The former GW target (we were in his top 7 originally) paces Dayton in scoring with 10.8 ppg to go with a team high 6.7 rpg as well. Camara is a slashing forward who likes to beat his man off the dribble and get to the hoop. He's only shooting 21% from distance on the year. It is worth noting that he can pass out of traffic fairly well so I wouldn't be surprised if Dayton played many possessions through him. Holmes was a top 50 HS recruit (I believe we showed some interest in him as well) who has made an immediate impact from day 1. He will make his presence felt down low on both sides of the ball. Holmes won't venture outside to the perimeter often, but he has converted on 64% of his shots from the field and averages 2.4 blocks per game on the other end as Dayton's only real shot-blocking presence.

Backing them up is Finland native Mustapha Amzil and redshirt freshman Moulaye Sissoko. Amzil was a revelation last season after enrolling at Dayton mid-season. He finished in double figures in his first six games in college which is highly impressive. Amzil has experienced somewhat of a "sophomore slump" as he has struggled to find his shot thus far. Part of that may be adjusting to a role as more of a rotation guy than one of the starters of the team. Sissoko, a Mali native, is a true center that will add rebounding and convert near the hoop when his number is called. Dayton can elect to go smaller at the 4 spot with RJ Blakney (another former GW target). Blakney is a strong player on offense who can score at all three levels and is a willing rebounder. Given Dayton's abundance of forwards, he likely plays more minutes at the 3 than down low but he has the height (6'6") to allow Grant to get away with playing him at pretty much any position on the court. It's interesting to see that Zimife 'Zimi' Nwokeji has been a non-factor so far this year for the Flyers. He was a bit raw even last season, but showed a lot of promise and I'm surprised he's basically been a bench-warmer thus far for Dayton.

In the backcourt, true freshman Malachi Smith has stepped up to fill a vital role for the team. The Bronx native is the younger brother of Scoochie, who played at Dayton under Archie Miller. Smith may be the most important player on the team. He is a defensive menace (averages 1.9 steals a game) and orchestrates the offense (4.5 assists per game) when he's not asked to score (10.1 ppg) or rebound (3.9 rpg). Oh and he's a 42% three point shooter. I'm guessing Adams spends time guarding him. Based on that, I'm not surprised Greer decided to look elsewhere to play because Smith has a starting spot on lock for the remainder of his Dayton career. Smith's former AAU teammate Koby Brea likely sees minutes off the bench in an off-ball role. Brea has some potential but just hasn't found any consistency thus far. When Smith needs a breather, the Flyers can go with DePaul transfer Kobe Elvis (making a Kobe and Koby backcourt - nice!) or a more seasoned player in USC transfer Elijah Weaver. Elvis can struggle with ball security issues, but is overall a very steady player. He can make shots if needed or make the right play. He won't be the most flashy player on the team, but is a solid glue guy. Weaver probably has the slight edge in the shooting department (38% from distance), but more importantly is an experienced player on a VERY young Dayton team that currently has 10 players with four years of eligibility remaining.

This is obviously going to be a tough game, but I could see a scenario where the game ends up close and relatively low-possession. It's never easy to come back after not playing for nearly a month, but hey our best performance last year was against URI coming off a pause so maybe we'll surprise. Hoping to see continued improvement on offense. In the last couple of games there has been noticeable improvement in the number of passes we make in the halfcourt, but it's still been a challenge for us to find an open shot consistently. Dayton does average roughly 14-15 turnovers a game so hopefully that leads to some potential transition opportunities. I do have a lot of concern about our bigs being in foul trouble (that's always the case, but even moreso in this one). I'm glad everyone is healthy and we're back playing basketball.

Projected Score: Dayton 68, GW 62. 26% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 31.2% chance at a W. Dayton is an 8 point road favorite.
 

GWRising wrote:

alleninxis wrote:

Do we have any idea on when we were back at practice? I assume we'll have a full roster but who knows 

2 days of full team practices so far. Limited practices/workouts before that.

Yikes.

brod wrote:

Is there no broadcast?? Feels like I'm following the local high school JV team

It’s nationally televised on USA network.  I would assume it’s also on peacock.


Refs really letting them play early.

Unsurprisingly not a good start.  Ball movement poor (as Dave Paulson pointed out), struggling to keep Dayton in front of us.   It does seem like we want to get up the court quickly and look for shots before the D is set, which makes sense because when it’s set, we are struggling to get good shots.

I like Dayton's shot selection better than ours.

8 straight empty possessions.  7 points in 15 possessions.   Sigh.

More turnovers than points. Mental cases. Castoff U. 

This is brutal. Kind of to be expected off a 26 day break against a good team but they look completely lost offensively.