St. Louis Billikens

Date/Time: Wednesday January 26th @ 8:00 PM ET at Chaifetz Arena in St. Louis, MO. The arena seats 10,600 people.
TV: Bally Sports Midwest / ESPN+
Preseason Ranks: 92nd (KenPom), 115th (Bart Torvik), 66th (CBS), 95th (SI)
2020-21 Record: 14-7, 6-4 (T-4th in A10)
2021-22 Projected Record: 21-10, 12-6 (T-2nd in A10)

Coach: Travis Ford, 89-65 in five seasons at SLU with an NCAA appearance in the 2018-19 season and an NIT berth in the 2020-21 season. Ford is no stranger to the Atlantic 10 conference as he was also the head coach at UMass for three seasons where he went 62-35 with two NIT appearances (man I'm sure Minutemen fans would go for that right now!). He was also head coach at Oklahoma State for eight seasons, going 155-111 (still solid) with 5 NCAA tournaments and 1 NIT appearance. Given Ford's success at his last three schools, you would surprised to find out he only went 61-80 in five seasons at Eastern Kentucky, which was his first D1 head coaching job. He did make the NCAAs in his fifth season which was enough to get him the UMass job. Ford has never served as an assistant, but transitioned to D1 coaching after three seasons coaching NAIA Campbellsville with a stellar 67-31 record.

Ford was in the transfer portal himself as a player, having started out at Missouri (the Tigers were in the Big East at the time, and Ford made the all-freshman team) before suiting up for Big Blue Nation and starting in his junior and senior years. He made the all-SEC team in his final two years as a player and set the UK single-game record in assists (15) and season record in three pointers made (101). Ford also starred in The Sixth Man in 1997 after his college career wrapped, starring Marlon Wayans and Kadeem Hardison. I believe the full movie is up on YouTube.

Head-to-Head: 9-11, and SLU has won the last four matchups. We played a close game at Chaifetz a couple seasons back, a 63-58 loss. Despite being down double digits at halftime, we did fare better in the second half, outscoring the Billikens 36-31. We put three in double figures in the game. Armel came off the bench with 17 points, 4 assists, and 2 steals (I believe he was returning from injury - Amir started the game), while Jamison had a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds and JNJ had 10 points and 6 rebounds. SLU made 5 more free throws than us which was the difference in the game.

Offensive Efficiency: 65th (KenPom), 66th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 73rd (KenPom), 63rd (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 140th (KenPom), 131st (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 44% (284th in Country)

Key Returning Players:
Javonte Perkins** (Senior; St. Louis, MO) 17.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.8 APG; 47% FG, 38% 3-PT, 87% (out for season due to ACL injury)
      2019-20 vs. GW: 17 points, 6 rebounds, 2 steals; 4-8 FG, 2-4 3-PT, 7-8 FT in 25 minutes.

Gibson Jimerson (RS Freshman; Richmond, VA) 7.8 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 1 APG; 43% FG, 39% 3-PT, 83% FT
Marten Linssen (RS Junior; Dusseldorf, GER) 5.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG; 65% FG, 80% FT
Fred Thatch Jr. (RS Junior; Sikeston, MO) 5.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1 APG; 43% FG, 31% 3-PT, 82% FT

Yuri Collins (Sophomore; St. Louis, MO) 5.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 6.1 APG, 1.2 SPG; 40% FG, 24% 3-PT, 67% FT
      2019-20 vs. GW: 2 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists; 0-3 FG, 0-1 3-PT, 2-4 FT in 34 minutes. If we manage to hold him to that statline again that'd be great but it's not happening.

Key Losses:
Jordan Goodwin (Graduated; Centreville, IL) 14.5 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 3.9 APG, 2 SPG; 43% FG, 31% 3-PT, 64% FT
Hasahn French (Graduated; Middletown, NY) 9.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.4 BPG; 53% FG, 33% FT

Comments:
St. Louis entered the 2020-21 season with a high floor and potentially highish ceiling. SLU had finished top 6 in Ford's previous three years and were a lock to finish that high again if not higher. Continuity is key in college basketball, and SLU had that in spades led by the senior duo of Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French. It seems somewhere along the way Ford finally realized that you need a few players that can shoot the ball in order to move up in the league, and in the past couple of seasons it has been significantly less brutal watching BillikenBall offensively.

Despite a hot start to the season (St. Louis won their first 6 games of the year, and 7 of 8 including wins over LSU and NC State) the Billikens fell victim to COVID, which ultimately derailed their season in conference play. There are no easy games in the A10, but there's not a team that would fare too well coming back from a month long pause and facing Dayton. To SLU's credit, they stayed in that game, but their next loss against La Salle ended any hopes at an NCAA bid. It was win the A10 tournament or bust. The Bills went on a three game win streak late but just did not have enough in the tank to beat Bona, and Mississippi State ended their season a game later in the NIT tournament. That brought an end to the Goodwin and French era, and the duo finished their careers appearing in a combined 231 games in a Billiken uniform. Goodwin is actually playing for the Capital City Go-Go (Wizards G-league affiliate) since graduating from SLU. Although the two leave behind a certain grit and toughness that will be hard to replace, better shooting (especially at the free throw line) seems like more of a possibility now. A couple of seasons back St. Louis was the worst free throw shooting team in the nation (58%), and Goodwin/French played a big role in that.

Ford has created a strong culture at SLU to the point where there are never really any down years - the Billikens were picked third in the preseason poll behind senior-laden Bonaventure and Richmond despite losing Goodwin and French. There was enough on paper to potentially make a run at the top spot, but an ACL injury to potential player of the year Javonte Perkins made their quest that much harder. You have to feel for a guy like Perkins, who elected to come back for his extra COVID year only to get hurt in the offseason. Hoping for a full recovery as he is one of the more exciting players to watch in the league.

An injury to their leader didn't slow SLU down to begin the year. Like last season, they began 7-1 with their only loss to Memphis (the Tigers have underperformed, but are talented enough that it's an understandable loss). St. Louis scheduled a relatively challenging OOC - they beat an always strong mid-major in Stephen F. Austin by 11, and got a nice win over a solid Boise State team in overtime. They fell just short in games against C-USA + OVC favorites UAB and Belmont as well as Auburn, the current #1 team in the country. I'm sure they would like those games back because the A10 would almost certainly be a multi-bid league had they come out on top in two of those three. It's been a bit up-and-down in conference play for St. Louis so far, as they've alternated win and loss in their past five conference games (what that means is that they are headed for a loss tomorrow night - you heard it here first!).

SLU's offense is led by Richmond native Gibson Jimerson, who has done an admirable job replacing the scoring lost from the Perkins injury. Jimerson doesn't do much other than shoot the ball from the SG spot, but he does it damn well. He's made twice as many threes as anyone else on SLU's roster and is also shooting a team best 43% from distance. Jimerson will get his points tomorrow night, but hopefully our three point defense holds up and we take away most of his tries from deep. He averages over five tries a game.

Jimerson's job shooting the ball is made easier thanks to floor general Yuri Collins, the A10 leader in assists per game the past two seasons. Collins has always been a terrific passer and on-ball defender on the other side of the ball, but he's really shined in the scoring department this season. Some of that may be out of necessity, but he's doubled his scoring this season. He's never been a killer from distance, but has certainly improved on his lackluster 24% clip from last season. Collins will be a tough guard - he commands attention now as a scorer, but if we focus in too much on him he will certainly burn us as a passer.

SLU's third option, Jordan Nesbitt, returns home after being a non-factor at Memphis. I believe the Billikens were originally a finalist for Nesbitt out of HS, but just lost out on his services so I'm sure they're glad to have landed him the second time around. Unsurprisingly, Nesbitt set out to make a statement in SLU's game against Memphis where he took a season high 14 attempts, but only converted on 3 shots (he still finished with 13 points). Nesbitt is coming off his first double double with 17 points and 12 rebounds in their absolute domination of UMass (after falling to the Minutemen just three days earlier). Of the three players mentioned so far, Nesbitt is the player I worry about containing the most, especially if Ricky isn't 100%. He is a decent enough three point shooter (35%) that we can't just hang in the paint when he has the ball.

The Billikens have gone with a number of different lineups in conference play, so it's a bit less clear who will be starting at the 4 spot. Sometimes they slide Nesbitt down a spot and start junior Fred Thatch Jr. like they did last game and other times they go with a second forward in Terrence Hargrove Jr. to play alongside center Francis Okoro. Thatch is a strong driver who finishes well at the hoop, although he's only a 24% three point shooter. He's the ultimate glue guy in the halfcourt and is also one of the better defenders on the team. Hargrove provides a bit more in terms of rebounding and can also stretch the floor (35% from three) but is the worst free throw shooter on the team at 47%. After the Rhody game, any poor free throw shooters are worth pointing out. Okoro, who comes to St. Louis from Oregon, is unsurprisingly their strongest rebounder and solid finisher inside. Unlike recent teams that we have faced, he's actually shooting 74% from the line. Still, I liked the double teaming in the post strategy and it was nice to see the team show the ability to recover when the ball swung back to the perimeter so I hope we keep that up tomorrow.

The top 6 of SLU's rotation sees the bulk of the minutes, but the Billikens tend to go 9-10 deep. Idaho native (and Central Arkansas transfer) DeAndre Jones will see some time as the veteran of the group. Like Jimerson, he doesn't do much other than shoot the ball, but Jones has been a proven shooter over the course of his career - he has made 161 threes (at a 39% rate) and 279 free throws (83% from line).

Who else we see off the bench is harder to say. Marten Linssen, a native of Germany who previously spent time at UNC Wilmington and Valparaiso, provides strong interior play off the bench (56% from the field, 83% from the line) in addition to rebounding. Lassina Traoré, a native of the Ivory Coast, has also shown to be a strong finisher/rebounder and has a bright future long term in St. Louis.

Guards Rashad Williams (formerly at Oakland/Cleveland State) and Florida native Markhi Strickland are deeper options. Strickland has shown some promise shooting the ball early in his career, while Williams has always a volume-dependent scorer. When I say volume, I don't say that lightly. Prior to arriving in St. Louis, Mr. Williams has been shoot, shoot, shoot whenever he gets the chance. He had four games where he attempted over 17 threes at Oakland last season (that did include an impressive 10/20 performance against Oklahoma State) and in his previous year he averaged(!!) nearly 13 threes a game. No one quite does it like him - I'm sure he was looking for a larger role at St. Louis, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up elsewhere after this season. He hasn't been very efficient since his freshman year at Cleveland State and has really struggled when he's played in a SLU uniform.

This figures to be another challenging contest, but a good one to gauge where the team is mentally. Like the VCU game, how do we respond when we inevitably fall behind by a large margin. It was nice to see us finally get to the line 23 times after only 9 attempts in three of our first four contests. We need to do that again tomorrow night to have a chance. The only way I see us containing Okoro is for him to be in foul trouble.

Projected Score: SLU 79, GW 62. ESPN gives us a 4.6% chance at a win (hey we managed to defy odds a few days back!) St. Louis opens as a 15.5 point home favorite.
 

I know GW has never won at Chaifetz Arena.  Is it possible that they have never won at SLU at all?

65% of the betting public is on GW +16 1/2.  Let's stay away from that and focus on the O/U of 142 1/2.

The under has gone:

8-2 when SLU is at home against teams with losing road records

19-6-1 on GW road games against teams with winning records

22-7 following a GW against the spread win

17-6 following a straight up GW win

36-16-1 in the last 53 GW road games

The under looks pretty solid.

dmvpiranha wrote:

St. Louis Billikens

Date/Time: Wednesday January 26th @ 8:00 PM ET at Chaifetz Arena in St. Louis, MO. The arena seats 10,600 people.
TV: Bally Sports Midwest / ESPN+
Preseason Ranks: 92nd (KenPom), 115th (Bart Torvik), 66th (CBS), 95th (SI)
2020-21 Record: 14-7, 6-4 (T-4th in A10)
2021-22 Projected Record: 21-10, 12-6 (T-2nd in A10)

Coach: Travis Ford, 89-65 in five seasons at SLU with an NCAA appearance in the 2018-19 season and an NIT berth in the 2020-21 season. Ford is no stranger to the Atlantic 10 conference as he was also the head coach at UMass for three seasons where he went 62-35 with two NIT appearances (man I'm sure Minutemen fans would go for that right now!). He was also head coach at Oklahoma State for eight seasons, going 155-111 (still solid) with 5 NCAA tournaments and 1 NIT appearance. Given Ford's success at his last three schools, you would surprised to find out he only went 61-80 in five seasons at Eastern Kentucky, which was his first D1 head coaching job. He did make the NCAAs in his fifth season which was enough to get him the UMass job. Ford has never served as an assistant, but transitioned to D1 coaching after three seasons coaching NAIA Campbellsville with a stellar 67-31 record.

Ford was in the transfer portal himself as a player, having started out at Missouri (the Tigers were in the Big East at the time, and Ford made the all-freshman team) before suiting up for Big Blue Nation and starting in his junior and senior years. He made the all-SEC team in his final two years as a player and set the UK single-game record in assists (15) and season record in three pointers made (101). Ford also starred in The Sixth Man in 1997 after his college career wrapped, starring Marlon Wayans and Kadeem Hardison. I believe the full movie is up on YouTube.

Head-to-Head: 9-11, and SLU has won the last four matchups. We played a close game at Chaifetz a couple seasons back, a 63-58 loss. Despite being down double digits at halftime, we did fare better in the second half, outscoring the Billikens 36-31. We put three in double figures in the game. Armel came off the bench with 17 points, 4 assists, and 2 steals (I believe he was returning from injury - Amir started the game), while Jamison had a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds and JNJ had 10 points and 6 rebounds. SLU made 5 more free throws than us which was the difference in the game.

Offensive Efficiency: 65th (KenPom), 66th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 73rd (KenPom), 63rd (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 140th (KenPom), 131st (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 44% (284th in Country)

Key Returning Players:
Javonte Perkins** (Senior; St. Louis, MO) 17.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.8 APG; 47% FG, 38% 3-PT, 87% (out for season due to ACL injury)
      2019-20 vs. GW: 17 points, 6 rebounds, 2 steals; 4-8 FG, 2-4 3-PT, 7-8 FT in 25 minutes.

Gibson Jimerson (RS Freshman; Richmond, VA) 7.8 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 1 APG; 43% FG, 39% 3-PT, 83% FT
Marten Linssen (RS Junior; Dusseldorf, GER) 5.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG; 65% FG, 80% FT
Fred Thatch Jr. (RS Junior; Sikeston, MO) 5.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1 APG; 43% FG, 31% 3-PT, 82% FT

Yuri Collins (Sophomore; St. Louis, MO) 5.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 6.1 APG, 1.2 SPG; 40% FG, 24% 3-PT, 67% FT
      2019-20 vs. GW: 2 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists; 0-3 FG, 0-1 3-PT, 2-4 FT in 34 minutes. If we manage to hold him to that statline again that'd be great but it's not happening.

Key Losses:
Jordan Goodwin (Graduated; Centreville, IL) 14.5 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 3.9 APG, 2 SPG; 43% FG, 31% 3-PT, 64% FT
Hasahn French (Graduated; Middletown, NY) 9.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.4 BPG; 53% FG, 33% FT

Comments:
St. Louis entered the 2020-21 season with a high floor and potentially highish ceiling. SLU had finished top 6 in Ford's previous three years and were a lock to finish that high again if not higher. Continuity is key in college basketball, and SLU had that in spades led by the senior duo of Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French. It seems somewhere along the way Ford finally realized that you need a few players that can shoot the ball in order to move up in the league, and in the past couple of seasons it has been significantly less brutal watching BillikenBall offensively.

Despite a hot start to the season (St. Louis won their first 6 games of the year, and 7 of 8 including wins over LSU and NC State) the Billikens fell victim to COVID, which ultimately derailed their season in conference play. There are no easy games in the A10, but there's not a team that would fare too well coming back from a month long pause and facing Dayton. To SLU's credit, they stayed in that game, but their next loss against La Salle ended any hopes at an NCAA bid. It was win the A10 tournament or bust. The Bills went on a three game win streak late but just did not have enough in the tank to beat Bona, and Mississippi State ended their season a game later in the NIT tournament. That brought an end to the Goodwin and French era, and the duo finished their careers appearing in a combined 231 games in a Billiken uniform. Goodwin is actually playing for the Capital City Go-Go (Wizards G-league affiliate) since graduating from SLU. Although the two leave behind a certain grit and toughness that will be hard to replace, better shooting (especially at the free throw line) seems like more of a possibility now. A couple of seasons back St. Louis was the worst free throw shooting team in the nation (58%), and Goodwin/French played a big role in that.

Ford has created a strong culture at SLU to the point where there are never really any down years - the Billikens were picked third in the preseason poll behind senior-laden Bonaventure and Richmond despite losing Goodwin and French. There was enough on paper to potentially make a run at the top spot, but an ACL injury to potential player of the year Javonte Perkins made their quest that much harder. You have to feel for a guy like Perkins, who elected to come back for his extra COVID year only to get hurt in the offseason. Hoping for a full recovery as he is one of the more exciting players to watch in the league.

An injury to their leader didn't slow SLU down to begin the year. Like last season, they began 7-1 with their only loss to Memphis (the Tigers have underperformed, but are talented enough that it's an understandable loss). St. Louis scheduled a relatively challenging OOC - they beat an always strong mid-major in Stephen F. Austin by 11, and got a nice win over a solid Boise State team in overtime. They fell just short in games against C-USA + OVC favorites UAB and Belmont as well as Auburn, the current #1 team in the country. I'm sure they would like those games back because the A10 would almost certainly be a multi-bid league had they come out on top in two of those three. It's been a bit up-and-down in conference play for St. Louis so far, as they've alternated win and loss in their past five conference games (what that means is that they are headed for a loss tomorrow night - you heard it here first!).

SLU's offense is led by Richmond native Gibson Jimerson, who has done an admirable job replacing the scoring lost from the Perkins injury. Jimerson doesn't do much other than shoot the ball from the SG spot, but he does it damn well. He's made twice as many threes as anyone else on SLU's roster and is also shooting a team best 43% from distance. Jimerson will get his points tomorrow night, but hopefully our three point defense holds up and we take away most of his tries from deep. He averages over five tries a game.

Jimerson's job shooting the ball is made easier thanks to floor general Yuri Collins, the A10 leader in assists per game the past two seasons. Collins has always been a terrific passer and on-ball defender on the other side of the ball, but he's really shined in the scoring department this season. Some of that may be out of necessity, but he's doubled his scoring this season. He's never been a killer from distance, but has certainly improved on his lackluster 24% clip from last season. Collins will be a tough guard - he commands attention now as a scorer, but if we focus in too much on him he will certainly burn us as a passer.

SLU's third option, Jordan Nesbitt, returns home after being a non-factor at Memphis. I believe the Billikens were originally a finalist for Nesbitt out of HS, but just lost out on his services so I'm sure they're glad to have landed him the second time around. Unsurprisingly, Nesbitt set out to make a statement in SLU's game against Memphis where he took a season high 14 attempts, but only converted on 3 shots (he still finished with 13 points). Nesbitt is coming off his first double double with 17 points and 12 rebounds in their absolute domination of UMass (after falling to the Minutemen just three days earlier). Of the three players mentioned so far, Nesbitt is the player I worry about containing the most, especially if Ricky isn't 100%. He is a decent enough three point shooter (35%) that we can't just hang in the paint when he has the ball.

The Billikens have gone with a number of different lineups in conference play, so it's a bit less clear who will be starting at the 4 spot. Sometimes they slide Nesbitt down a spot and start junior Fred Thatch Jr. like they did last game and other times they go with a second forward in Terrence Hargrove Jr. to play alongside center Francis Okoro. Thatch is a strong driver who finishes well at the hoop, although he's only a 24% three point shooter. He's the ultimate glue guy in the halfcourt and is also one of the better defenders on the team. Hargrove provides a bit more in terms of rebounding and can also stretch the floor (35% from three) but is the worst free throw shooter on the team at 47%. After the Rhody game, any poor free throw shooters are worth pointing out. Okoro, who comes to St. Louis from Oregon, is unsurprisingly their strongest rebounder and solid finisher inside. Unlike recent teams that we have faced, he's actually shooting 74% from the line. Still, I liked the double teaming in the post strategy and it was nice to see the team show the ability to recover when the ball swung back to the perimeter so I hope we keep that up tomorrow.

The top 6 of SLU's rotation sees the bulk of the minutes, but the Billikens tend to go 9-10 deep. Idaho native (and Central Arkansas transfer) DeAndre Jones will see some time as the veteran of the group. Like Jimerson, he doesn't do much other than shoot the ball, but Jones has been a proven shooter over the course of his career - he has made 161 threes (at a 39% rate) and 279 free throws (83% from line).

Who else we see off the bench is harder to say. Marten Linssen, a native of Germany who previously spent time at UNC Wilmington and Valparaiso, provides strong interior play off the bench (56% from the field, 83% from the line) in addition to rebounding. Lassina Traoré, a native of the Ivory Coast, has also shown to be a strong finisher/rebounder and has a bright future long term in St. Louis.

Guards Rashad Williams (formerly at Oakland/Cleveland State) and Florida native Markhi Strickland are deeper options. Strickland has shown some promise shooting the ball early in his career, while Williams has always a volume-dependent scorer. When I say volume, I don't say that lightly. Prior to arriving in St. Louis, Mr. Williams has been shoot, shoot, shoot whenever he gets the chance. He had four games where he attempted over 17 threes at Oakland last season (that did include an impressive 10/20 performance against Oklahoma State) and in his previous year he averaged(!!) nearly 13 threes a game. No one quite does it like him - I'm sure he was looking for a larger role at St. Louis, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up elsewhere after this season. He hasn't been very efficient since his freshman year at Cleveland State and has really struggled when he's played in a SLU uniform.

This figures to be another challenging contest, but a good one to gauge where the team is mentally. Like the VCU game, how do we respond when we inevitably fall behind by a large margin. It was nice to see us finally get to the line 23 times after only 9 attempts in three of our first four contests. We need to do that again tomorrow night to have a chance. The only way I see us containing Okoro is for him to be in foul trouble.

Projected Score: SLU 79, GW 62. ESPN gives us a 4.6% chance at a win (hey we managed to defy odds a few days back!) St. Louis opens as a 15.5 point home favorite.
 

DMVPiranha, thank you for your write up. Last year I mentioned how much I appreciate learning from you. This year is no different, except that I had forgotten to acknowledge your incredible work and thank you.  I read so much about sports, including various newspapers, The Athletic, the Ringer and many other internet sports sites. There are some talented and well informed writers I regularly follow. But your previews are what I look forward to reading most because they are packed with great information and insight.   

I think you mentioned perhaps starting a for-pay service or somehow monetizing your stellar work. I'm still hoping to be your first customer.  Anyway, thanks again for sharing your knowledge, opinions and your time.  I'm extremely grateful.

Brown is not playing.

The pessimist in me thinks we lose by 18+. Happy to look like an idiot and be wrong.

A wonderful St. Louis-- GW connection: Matt Nordmann, who transferred from Navy to GW and played on the 1989-90 and 190-91 teams, is the son one of the greatest -- if not the greatest -- players in St. Louis history Bob Nordmann.

Protect the ball.  3 turnovers by the first media timeout.   

They are so much more physical than us.   We need to find a way to adjust because not only are we turning it over, but most of our shots have been not even close and on D we are giving up, dunks, layups, and open 3s.

And we r had more than one guy catch underneath and hesitate instead of just going up strong.

Last edited by Free Quebec (1/26/2022 8:16 pm)

We have the world's first motion offense ever to generate only desperation, contested 1 on 4 jumpers.

Giving up too many 2nd chance points...our old bugaboo.