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2/20/2022 9:38 am  #1


A10 tourney and seeding

I thought I would start a thread for tracking where we stand in seeding for the A10. 

After the win over URI, we are currently in 8th at 7-6, and we are getting close to clinching no worse than the 8th seed.

We are not making up the Bonnies game (a likely loss considering we are 0-5 vs the top 5 teams in the league and 7-1 vs everyone else) so our remaining games are Richmond, @Mason, Duquesne, @Fordham.   Assuming we best Duq at home, we would be at worst 7-8 (but possibly better). 


Heading into Sunday, 2/20, the standings (and remaining games) are:

6) Richmond 8-6 (@GW, STL, Dayton, @Bona).  Unbalanced schedule much tougher on them than us.

7) Mason 6-5 (@Fordham, @VCU, GW, @Davidson, @UMASS).  They will be big underdogs in two of those, so the game vs us is likely pivotal for seeding.

8) GW 7-6 (Richmond, @Mason, Duquesne, @Fordham). We will only play 15 and not have to play Bona, which helps.

9) UMASS 5-8 (@Dayton, VCU, @Fordham, Fordham, @GMU). We own the tie-break over them. Two games vs Fordham likely prevents one or both teams from catching us.

10) Fordham 4-8 (GMU, LaSalle, @Davidson, UMASS, @UMASS, GW).  Assuming they lose to Davidson, they’d have to sweep the rest to have a chance to pass us.

11) URI 4-9 (@Bona, Duquesne, SLU, @SJU) we own tie break so as long as we best Duq, they can’t catch us even if they sweep.


The other teams all have at least 10 losses, meaning as long as we win one more game, we finish ahead of them. 

To avoid the play in for the first time in a few years, one more win should do. 

Most likely we finish 8th at this point, but 6th or 7th are not out of the question.  2 wins would give us a great shot to move up to 7th or 6th (and a win over Richmond or George Mason would be huge for that quest). 

Personally I really want to see us move up to 6th or 7th because it means a night game in the A10 tourney, instead of playing at noon (the 8/9 game is always at noon) because I don’t think I can attend the noon game this year.

 

2/20/2022 9:53 am  #2


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

Today’s game:

George Mason (7-6)  @Fordham (4-8)
2:30PM on USA network. 


It George Mason wins:
- GMU would move to 7-5 with a win, staying a half game in front of us.
-Fordham would fall to 4-10 with a loss and be all but guaranteed to finish behind us.
- A Fordham loss would not clinch us avoiding the play-in, but it would leave us one win short of clinching.


If Fordham wins:
- We move past Mason into 7th, as they would fall to 7-7.
- We would actually be playing Richmond Tuesday for a chance at 6th. 
- Fordham would improve to 5-8 and still be in position to push us out of the top 8.

     Thread Starter
 

2/20/2022 10:06 am  #3


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

Since the A10 moved to 18 conference games, there has been one season where a 7 win team has played in pillow fight (2018). We would have to lose out and have bottom feeders start playing winning basketball for us to not get a bye. We are more or less safe to get a first round bye.
 

Last edited by GW18 (2/20/2022 10:07 am)

 

2/20/2022 2:03 pm  #4


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

GW18 wrote:

Since the A10 moved to 18 conference games, there has been one season where a 7 win team has played in pillow fight (2018). We would have to lose out and have bottom feeders start playing winning basketball for us to not get a bye. We are more or less safe to get a first round bye.
 

Yes. One more win should do it for the bye (and if we can’t beat Duq at home, yikes).

If we can’t get up to 6 or 7, I do think there is a legit question about whether we’d be better off being 7th than in the 8-9 game.  That 7-10 game is at night, so maybe more of a pro-GW home crowd.  Though If we could actually make the quarters, I’d rather play Davidson than Dayton or VCU.

     Thread Starter
 

2/20/2022 3:28 pm  #5


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

I found this A-10 seeding generator website: http://bball.notnothing.net/atlantic10.php?sport=mbb

 

2/20/2022 4:26 pm  #6


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

Fordham leading George Amerindian by 2 with 20 seconds to go.

     Thread Starter
 

2/20/2022 4:37 pm  #7


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

Fordham knocks off George Mason 50-47!!!!


GW moved into 7th, with Mason falling to 7-7 and they still have games at VCU and Davidson remaining, not to mention vs us.  Unlikely they can finish with a winning record so if we upset Richmond on Tuesday (tall order), we would be in the driver’s seat to finish 6th.

     Thread Starter
 

2/20/2022 4:45 pm  #8


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

Update heading into Tuesday games:

Heading into Sunday, 2/20, the standings (and remaining games) are:

6) Richmond 8-6 (@GW, STL, Dayton, @Bona).  Unbalanced schedule much tougher on them than us.  They have to look at Tuesday at the Smith Center as a must win with only top teams remaining.

7) GW 7-6 (Richmond, @Mason, Duquesne, @Fordham). We will only play 15 and not have to play Bona, which helps.  Richmond game will be for 6th and then Mason game could all but clinch a top half finish. Winning one or both of the next two (we’ll be underdogs in both) would be huge.  If we beat Duq, our floor is 8-9.  Need to keep winning.

8  Mason 6-6  (@VCU, GW, @Davidson, @UMASS).  They will be big underdogs in two of those, so the game vs us is likely pivotal for seeding with 8-8 their most likely ceiling.

9) UMASS 5-8 (@Dayton, VCU, @Fordham, Fordham, @GMU). We own the tie-break over them. Two games vs Fordham likely prevents one or both teams from catching us.

10) Fordham 5-8 ( LaSalle, @Davidson, UMASS, @UMASS, GW).  Big win over Mason. Assuming they lose to Davidson, they’d still have to sweep the rest to have a chance to pass us. Back to back games with Fordham will be big for standings.

11) URI 4-9 (@Bona, Duquesne, SLU, @SJU) we own tie break so as long as we beat Duq, they can’t catch us even if they sweep.

     Thread Starter
 

2/21/2022 1:12 pm  #9


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

I'm rooting for a 6 or 7 seed so Thursday and Friday (hopefully) would be played at night and I don't have to take time off from work.  

https://atlantic10.com/documents/2021/11/9//2022_MBB_Bracket.pdf?id=7428
 

 

2/21/2022 2:09 pm  #10


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

My hope, is that we end up with a path where somehow Dayton is knocked out, we upset Davidson, and suddenly we're a win or 2 away from the Dance.

Sounds crazy, but so does being 7-6 in the A10 after a 2-8 start in the OOC.  So I think that probably means the 8 seed if Davidson ends up #1.  They're the best team A10 team but also the best A10 team we match up well with

 

2/21/2022 3:41 pm  #11


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

3 of Mason’s 6 losses came with Oduro out.  Considering our problems with skilled bigs, it’ll be tough to squeeze out a win over there.

 

2/22/2022 11:35 am  #12


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

BM wrote:

3 of Mason’s 6 losses came with Oduro out.  Considering our problems with skilled bigs, it’ll be tough to squeeze out a win over there.

Agreed, especially because with Oduro playing they have two really strong rebounders. That said, they just lost to Fordham so who knows.

     Thread Starter
 

2/22/2022 11:05 pm  #13


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

I believe we clinched a top 10 seed, meaning no play-in game! 

One more win should seal a single digit seed (it would take a massive string of upsets and other results for us to be worse than 9th if we can get to 8-9).

Update after Tuesday’s games

6) Richmond 9-6 (STL, Dayton, @Bona).  Richmond could still lose their last three games, but they now have the tie break, so the only way we could get to 6th would be if we win out and Richmond loses out.  Highly unlikely.

7) GW 7-7 ( @Mason, Duquesne, @Fordham). Mason game Sunday is more like the battle for Night Time than the battle for the Orange line since the winner will have the inside track for the 7 seed and a night game in the tourney, instead of a noon game.  Should we lose to Mason, we can still get to 7th by beating Duq and Fordham unless multiple upsets happen.

8  Mason 6-6  (@VCU, GW, @Davidson, @UMASS).  They will be big underdogs in two of those, so if we beat them we all but seal 7th and if we lose to them, it’ll probably come down to the final day with us at Fordham and them at UMASS.

9) UMASS 5-8 (@Dayton, VCU, @Fordham, Fordham, @GMU). We own the tie-break over them. Two games vs Fordham likely prevents one or both teams from catching us (provided we win another game) 

10) Fordham 5-8 ( LaSalle, @Davidson, UMASS, @UMASS, GW).  Assuming they lose to Davidson, they’d still have to sweep the rest to have a chance to pass us. Back to back games with UMASS will be big for standings.

11) URI 4-10 ;Duquesne, SLU, @SJU).  Their loss today was big for us. 6) Richmond 8-6 (@GW, STL, Dayton, @Bona).  Unbalanced schedule much tougher on them than us.  They have to look at Tuesday at the Smith Center as a must win with only top teams remaining.

Last edited by Free Quebec (2/23/2022 9:41 am)

     Thread Starter
 

2/23/2022 8:08 am  #14


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

Thanks Free!

 

2/23/2022 11:59 am  #15


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

Yes, we have clinched at least 10th. One more win and I believe we will be no worse than 9th. If we win out we can get 6th but as noted highly unlikely Richmond loses out. I think the realistic range is 7th - 9th.

 

2/23/2022 12:26 pm  #16


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

Today we should root for:

1) VCU (-6.5) to beat Mason.  Would keep us in front of Mason for 7th.  This is the biggest one.  Also need VCU to keep bubble hopes alive.

2) Dayton (-11.5) to beat UMASS.  Not only to deal UMASS a loss, but Dayton is close to in the tourney and we want them to keep winning to get another A10 team or two into the dance.

3) LaSalle (+3) to beat Fordham.  Seems likely, but would be good to deal Fordham a 9th loss before they go to Davidson and play Umass twice.

4) Davidson (-8.5) to beat Duquesne. Only matters for helping Davidson get to the tourney.

     Thread Starter
 

2/23/2022 10:29 pm  #17


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

Update after Wednesday games:

Update after Tuesday’s games

6) Richmond 9-6 (STL, Dayton, @Bona).  Richmond could still lose their last three games, but they now have the tie break, so the only way we could get to 6th would be if we win out and Richmond loses out.  Highly unlikely.

7) GW 7-7 ( @Mason, Duquesne, @Fordham). Mason game Sunday is more like the battle for Night Time than the battle for the Orange line since the winner will have the inside track for the 7 seed and a night game in the tourney, instead of a noon game.  Should we lose to Mason, we can still get to 7th by beating Duq and Fordham unless multiple upsets happen.

8) Mason 6-7 (GW, @Davidson, @UMASS).  GMU lost to VCU despite a nice run early in the second half to take the lead. Assuming they lose at Davidson, the best they can do is 8-8, which means two wins and we clinch the 7 seed at worst.

9)  Fordham 6-8 (@Davidson, UMASS, @UMASS, GW).  Took care of business over LaSalle.  Assuming they lose at Davidson and we best Duq (no guarantees for either), they would need to sweep UMASS to have a chance to move ahead of us.

10) UMASS 5-9 (VCU, @Fordham, Fordham, @GMU). We own the tie-break over them so one more win for us or a loss for UMASS means they can’t catch us.  The two games vs a Fordham loom large.

11) URI 4-10 (Duquesne, SLU, @SJU).  Their loss today was big for us. 6) Richmond 8-6 (@GW, STL, Dayton, @Bona).  Unbalanced schedule much tougher on them than us.  They have to look at Tuesday at the Smith Center as a must win with only top teams remaining.

Note:KenPom currently projects us to finish 8-9 and the 8 seed.

     Thread Starter
 

2/24/2022 10:30 am  #18


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

Looks like we will be underdogs at Mason and at  Fordham. If we finish 1-2, it looks like we would play Fordham in the 8-9 game. For you non-optimistic GW followers, how does a loss at Fordham in the final game of the season and a loss to Fordham in our opening round of the A-10 Tournament sound? To me, it sounds dreadful after a nice turnaround of the season in conference play. I know Fordham has improved and I now we have improved, but back-to-back losses brings back nightmares of 2019-20 season and would show how little progress we have made in JC's third year.

 

2/24/2022 10:38 am  #19


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

10) UMASS 5-9 (VCU, @Fordham, Fordham, @GMU). We own the tie-break over them so one more win for us or a loss for UMASS means they can’t catch us.  The two games vs a Fordham loom large.

FQ, how does a potential tiebreaker with UMASS work when we play 17 games and they play 18?
 

 

2/24/2022 11:29 am  #20


Re: A10 tourney and seeding

LA Colonial wrote:

10) UMASS 5-9 (VCU, @Fordham, Fordham, @GMU). We own the tie-break over them so one more win for us or a loss for UMASS means they can’t catch us.  The two games vs a Fordham loom large.

FQ, how does a potential tiebreaker with UMASS work when we play 17 games and they play 18?
 

Unbalanced schedule will be based on winning percentage so if UMass has one more win but same number of losses there is no tiebreaker and we finish behind them.

 

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