Not sure what to expect from this one.  Richmond is better than any team we’ve beaten (and other than Maryland and Davidson, we’ve been non-competitive against the other top 100 teams).

Richmond has experienced guards in Gilyard (ncaa all time steals leader who can shoot it from deep), Burton (excellent offensive wing who can score at all 4 levels), Sherod (another excellent shooter), and Gustavsen (lower usage, but shoots over 40% from three in conference).     And they have a terrific all around big man in Grant Golden (who has averaged over 16 ppg against us over his career) and a solid glue guy in Cayo.  They also have the kind of big guy off the bench in Matt Grace who tends to kill us. 

And of course, they carve teams up with passing - 22nd in the nation in assists/FG.

But there is good news about how we match up:

- Richmond isn’t a very good rebounding team. Golden doesn’t crash the offensive glass (Cayo and Grace are the main guys who get offensive boards).  Teams that crash the boards can dominate us.

- They shoot a lot of threes, but haven’t shot as well as usual in conference play.  Over 42% of their shots are from three in conference games, but they’ve slumped to just 32.2% - second worst in the league.  Our three point defense is still very good, so hopefully we can take away what they want to do. 

- Burton, in particular, has really struggled from three (he shot 45% in the OOC, but just 29.5% in A10 games). Coming into A10 play this year, he was over 37% for the year, so it’s fair to assume positive regression is coming.  Watch for how he shoots - if Burton is on, we are in trouble, and we need to guard him tightly despite the sub30% shooting in conference.

Overall, I think potentially match up well on paper. 

- We have two good ball handlers, which is key, because Gilyard is such a good defender so if he’s guarding Freeman, then Bishop or Adams can run the offense and if he guards Bishop, then Freeman can do his thing.

- Golden is smart and skilled, but won’t physically dominate Dean the way Dayton’s bigs do. 

- Lindo has the length and quickness to guard the 6’7” Burton, as long as he doesn’t foul.  He should also be able to rebound well against Richmond. 

- Cayo is 6’7”, but I don’t know if he is fast enough to guard Joe Bam.  Same for the 6’5” Gustaffsen if he gets the assignment.  A big game from Joe will be key.

- If we take care of the ball and hold our own on the boards, then we should get plenty of good looks so as long as we can make shots and battle Golden; Burton, and Gilyard well enough that none go off for 30 I genuinely think we have a chance (and we have to prevent Golden from carving us up with the pass).

DC Native wrote:

I think this game is a great measuring stick for us. We are clearly not as good as the top teams in the league in terms of RPI, going 0-5 against VCU (30), Davidson (31), St. Bon (43), St. Louis (60), and Dayton (61). We are 7-1 against the bottom 8 in the conference, however, with the highest RPI of these being George Mason (134). Our only loss was to St. Joseph's (190), which now seems like an anomaly. There is a pretty big gap between Dayton at 61 and George Mason at 134. The one team in between is Richmond at 77.

Our RPI is only 186, but it is clearly being pulled down by the awful OOC. We are 4-0 versus the three teams above us but below Richmond (George Mason at 134, Rhode Island at 152, and UMass at 184).

I didn’t know there was still an RPI.   Don’t believe anyone uses that gameable metric any more.  Primarily replaced by the NET.

Richmond opens as a 5 1/2 point favorite.

Richmond Spiders

Date/Time: Tuesday February 22nd @ 7:00 PM ET at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, DC.
TV: NBC Sports Washington / ESPN+
Preseason Ranks: 64th (KenPom), 43rd (Bart Torvik), 41st (CBS), 46th (SI)
2020-21 Record: 14-9, 6-5 (8th in A10)
2021-22 Projected Record: 19-12, 10-8 (6th in A10)

Coach: Chris Mooney, 288-231 in 16 seasons at Richmond. Under Mooney's watch, Richmond has qualified for 2 NCAA, 3 NIT, and 3 CBI tournaments. That of course doesn't include the 2019-20 season where the Spiders would have surely made the cut for one of the above tournaments so that makes it nine in 16 seasons for Mooney. That's not terrible by any means but I understand that fans are upset because they haven't made the tournament in over ten years - even we have made the tournament more recently! Mooney played basketball at Princeton, so it makes a lot of sense why Richmond runs the Princeton offense. He studied English at the school. Mooney ranks 20th in program history in scoring and made the all-Ivy team twice in his final two years of eligibility. 

Head-to-Head: 53-40, although Richmond has won the last four (and eight of the past nine contests). We have faced Richmond more times in our history than any other team in college basketball. One thing that does work in our favor despite the poor record against them recently is that we have played them a lot tougher at our place compared to theirs. We played the Spiders twice during the 2019-20 season and lost to them by just 3 at home compared to 22 on the road (that road game came right after our 4OT classic against Davidson if I remember correctly). We placed four in double figures, with Armel (17 points, 12 assists, 5 rebounds) having one of his best games in a GW uniform. I remember him pretty much putting the team on his back and keeping us in it down the stretch. Maceo (17 points) and Jamison (10 points) made some timely threes, and JNJ (13 points, 8 rebounds) did an admirable job playing every minute of the contest along with Armel. The biggest difference was the poor free throw shooting, as we went a dismal 12-24 from the line. If we had shot our season average, we would have come out on top.

That home contest also notably featured a student org showing up to pressure GW to divest from fossil fuels as well as rapper Swae Lee (one half of the duo Rae Sremmurd) making an appearance to support Armel (Lee was being managed by Armel's brother in Atlanta).

Offensive Efficiency: 67th (KenPom), 76th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 135th (KenPom), 141st (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 186th (KenPom), 182nd (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 86.1% (47th in country)

Key Returning Players:
Grant Golden (RS Senior; Winchester, VA) 12.7 PPG, 6 RPG, 3.5 APG; 56% FG, 50% 3-PT, 67% FT
      2019-20 season vs. GW: 12 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 blocks; 4-11 FG, 4-4 FT in 34 minutes.

Nick Sherod (RS Senior; Richmond, VA) 12.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.6 APG; 45% FG, 44% 3-PT, 81% FT** (2019-20 stats - missed 2020-21 season with torn ACL)
      2019-20 season vs. GW: 15 points; 5-9 FG, 3-6 3-PT, 2-2 FT in 28 minutes.

Jacob Gilyard (Senior; Kansas City, MO) 12.3 PPG, 3 RPG, 5 APG, 3.6 SPG; 41% FG, 34% 3-PT, 84% FT
      2019-20 season vs. GW: 8 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals; 2-7 FG, 2-6 3-PT, 2-4 FT in 39 minutes.

Nathan Cayo (Senior; Montreal, Canada) 12.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.3 APG; 51% FG, 40% 3-PT, 72% FT
      2019-20 season vs. GW: 6 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals; 2-7 FG, 2-2 FT in 31 minutes.

Tyler Burton (Sophomore; Uxbridge, MA) 12 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.1 SPG; 45% FG, 36% 3-PT, 80% FT
      2019-20 season vs. GW: 8 points, 5 rebounds; 3-4 FG, 1-2 3-PT, 1-2 FT in 9 minutes.

Key Losses:
Blake Francis (Graduated; Herndon, VA) 16.1 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.4 SPG; 42% FG, 36% 3-PT, 75% FT

Comments:
Put the 2020-21 season in the books as yet another season where Mooney's Richmond squad did "pretty well" but had no NCAA berth to show for it. Things have been so bad at GW in recent seasons that as a fan I would certainly take "just okay" but I can definitely understand Richmond fans getting tired of coming up short in their quest of making the dance year after year. I came across this tweet the other day regarding Richmond's NCAA drought, which is pretty stunning. That's just simply inadequate for a coach being paid over a million a year. In 2020, [url=https://richmond.com/sports/college/richmond/chris-mooney-and-richmond-agree-to-two-year-contract-extension-running-through-2023-24/article_9118df96-ae45-5b59-af57-703cf3de50ea.html#:~:text=UR%2C%20a%20private%20school%2C%20does,other%20experienced%20A%2D10%20coaches.]Mooney signed a two-year extension through 2023-24[/url], but there's a nonzero chance that Richmond's AD decides to move on if they can't win the A10 tournament, because they are definitely not anywhere near at-large status. This has to be the year with the super senior class moving on after the season.

After the well-publicized "Fire Mooney" billboard was put up during the 2018-19 season, Mooney did well the following year, finishing 14-4 in conference which was good for 2nd place in the A10. It was his best win-loss percentage in conference since the 2009 and 2010 seasons when the Spiders made the NCAA tournament in back-to-back years (they actually made the Sweet 16 the second year which probably deserves a bit more praise than it's had recently). A big key to the improvement was the decision to go away from a soft zone, which took Richmond from a below average defensive unit to the best defensive team in the A10 that year. The 2019-20 season was the ultimate "what could have been" year for the league, but that's especially true for Dayton and Richmond. I'm not convinced anyone could have beat the Flyers that year, but who knows - had Richmond pulled an upset perhaps we would be looking at Mooney in a different light. Unfortunately, that will always stand as a "who knows".

Last season, Richmond became the hunted (picked first in the A10 poll preseason). Things didn't start off bad by any means - the Spiders were one of the few teams to actually get a decent number of OOC games in, where they finished 7-2 (including a D3 win against St. Mary's MD late). The only real blemish was a loss to Hofstra but the Kentucky win continued to get less and less impressive as the Wildcats continued to fall over the course of the year, eventually bottoming out at 9-16. Unfortunately, the dream of an at-large came crashing down five games into A10 play, as the upset-minded La Salle Explorers played spoiler. The Spiders to their credit did not completely fall apart after that loss - they withstood an extended COVID pause in late January (which included our game being canceled) but Richmond ultimately faded at the end of conference season, losing their final three games. Their early season performance was still enough to make the NIT, but the Spiders were sent packing in the quarterfinals by the Mississippi State Bulldogs on a late 3 by DJ Stewart. A true heartbreaker, but after you are picked first and settle for the NIT, there were surely other things to be more upset about in Richmond.

Fortunately, the extra COVID year allowed the Spiders to "run it back" this year sans Francis, who honestly might have been a bigger loss than it initially appeared. Perhaps being picked "only second" would lower the pressure some on the veteran Richmond squad. A 9-4 OOC season pretty much summed up the current senior team under Mooney. No outright bad losses, but no great wins to really move the needle. To be fair to Richmond, their schedule on paper seemed a lot better than it ended up being. A lot of teams they've faced - Utah State, Drake, Maryland, Mississippi State, Northern Iowa, and Toledo - range from "outright disappointment" to just "above average" compared to their preseason expectations. The Aggies have had trouble moving up in an extremely competitive Mountain West. The Drake Bulldogs have been unable to recapture the magic from last season. We all know the Terrapins have underperformed greatly. MS State is a bubble team like every year. The UNI Panthers can still potentially win the MVC but haven't been at-large good with Green back in the fold, and the Rockets have shown some vulnerability of late in the MAC. At the very least, Richmond was able to get revenge on Hofstra (a team that beat Arkansas earlier in the year) but unfortunately they were unable to trump MS State for the second consecutive year. They also lost to Maryland like us.

Back-to-back losses to open conference play against St. Joe's and SLU definitely ignited discussion as to whether Mooney should return next year, or at the very least whether Richmond's senior class had already peaked back in the 2019-20 season. Sometimes a bit too much is placed on "continuity" and I think after a while a team made up of the same primary guys gets stale (Bona is another example of that). We also lost to the Hawks, but at least it was on the road and not by a whopping 27 points. Granted, it's tough to win against anyone when you shoot under 28% from the field and 18% from three. Those numbers looked like Duquesne against us. Outside of a recent 20 point blowout against VCU, Richmond has turned things around of late, going 8-3 with all 3 losses being by 2 or 3 points. In a lot of ways, Richmond's conference season has looked a lot like ours. We also started off 0-2 in conference play, but have been more consistent since, outside a blowout on the road against Dayton.

There shouldn't be much of a surprise with Richmond's rotation this season. Despite not playing them last season, we've faced their primary rotation before and should know what to expect on both sides of the ball. Let's start with the senior class where Grant Golden and Nathan Cayo hold the fort down low while Jacob Gilyard and Nick Sherod frustrate opponents along the perimeter.

Golden in particular figures to be a tough matchup for us, as the Spiders often times run their offense through him from the top of the key. Golden is a very strong passer but can hurt opponents if they sag off him too much as he has the ability to drive to the hoop and finish with ease. He's a capable three point shooter as well which makes him that much harder to defend. Really everyone outside of Cayo will certainly consider letting it fly from distance if we lose our rotations defensively and give them too much space. Not to disrespect the Canadian Cayo by any means, but I figure we are going to have to treat him a lot similar to how we defended Mennenga in the Davidson game. Force him to beat us and give him some space if it allows us to close out on their guards along the perimeter and prevent Golden from having a Brajkovič like game against us (which he certainly can do). If needed, force Cayo to earn his points from the line as he is shooting a dismal 48% from the charity stripe which is easily the worst mark on the team.

Gilyard is masterful orchestrating the Richmond offense. He is currently tied for third in the A10 in assists per game with Lofton of SBU, but he is obviously recognized more for his defense with his quick hands. Gilyard has been top 5 nationally in steals per game the past four seasons and he broke the all-time NCAA steals record in Richmond's early December game against Northern Iowa. If there is a weakness, it's that he isn't the most efficient shooter on the team. He didn't have the best game against us in the home game two seasons ago, and is shooting under 40% from the field on the year. As long as we are running him off the three point line, we can live with a few midrange made shots from Gilyard given his strengths lie a bit more as a passer. We should try our best to deny him from getting the ball to other Spider players. Sherod returning to the team is a nice story after there was speculation his career was over following a second ACL injury. At this point in his career, he comes off the bench and just doesn't have the same efficiency shooting the ball as he did prior to the injury. Expect him to play an off ball shooting role, but we should be fine as long as we run him off the line.

Although the senior class gets a lot of the attention, Tyler Burton actually leads Richmond in both scoring and rebounding this year. He has raised his stock so much in the past year that there has been some speculation that he can get drafted in the second round of the NBA draft in the next year. If Burton does leave along with the senior class, I'm not sure what Richmond has to look forward to after this season honestly. Anyways, Burton is a true three-level scorer that competes on both ends. It will be interesting to see who gets that assignment tomorrow. He is probably a bit too fast for Ricky but has the height advantage over a guy like Brendan. Perhaps Joe? That's really the only other pivotal matchup apart from Golden.

With Sherod now coming off the bench, junior Andre Gustavson teams up with Gilyard in the starting backcourt. Gustavson, a native of Finland, is the perfect glue guy for Richmond - he doesn't necessarily command the same usage levels like the rest of the starters but is very efficient shooting the ball (a team high 43% from distance, although on lower volume) when his number is called and is a better defender than most people notice. His career high is 13 points against Fordham his freshman year so would it be the worst thing in the world if we dare him to beat us? Maybe not as long as the shots aren't wide open.

Richmond usually goes nine deep in games, but the only other player who likely sees significant minutes is Golden's backup, Matt Grace. While Grace offers some height, Richmond just isn't the same team with him in the game. He can find himself in foul trouble defensively and is inefficient down low on offense.

Beyond the above 7, a couple players may see some spot minutes here and there. Isaiah Wilson actually started for Richmond earlier in conference play before being relegated to the bench and has not seen action in their past two games. He's had his inefficiencies shooting the ball. Tulane transfer Connor Crabtree is useful in small doses as an off-ball scorer from the wing.

This is a good test for us to see how much we've improved communication-wise on defense. Richmond is sure to burn us at some point with their pinpoint passing and surgical approach on offense, but can we keep Golden from having a career night? This figures to be a game where both teams put up a decent number of points on both ends and the final result may come down to who makes more defensive plays in the game.

Projected Score: Richmond 73, GW 70. 36% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a less optimistic 21.9% chance to move up to 6th place in the A10. As of now, Richmond is a 7 point road favorite.
 

The Spiders don’t travel well. And with GW at +245 on the money line right now, count me in.

GW73 wrote:

GW Alum Abroad wrote:

Has GW really played Richmond more times than West Virginia?

All-time W-L records, 50 or more games played
1) Richmond 53-40
2) Duquesne 53-32
3) West Virginia 27-57
4) UMass 45-29
5) Temple 15-50
6) URI 34-30
7) St. Joe's 28-36
8) St. Bona 35-28
9) Va Tech 27-34
10) Georgetown 31-24
11) Maryland 16-34
 

Thanks. I guess the games with Duques and UR now outnumber what had been one of college basketball´s oldest rivalries.To their credit, I don´t think Richmond has ever brought a weapon-toting mascot to the Smith Center wanting to set off blank shots when their team takes the court. And their fans are less likely (though not entirely unlikely) to drive to the game in a pick-up truck with a gun rack or to wear overalls.
 

GW Alum Abroad wrote:

GW73 wrote:

GW Alum Abroad wrote:

Has GW really played Richmond more times than West Virginia?

All-time W-L records, 50 or more games played
1) Richmond 53-40
2) Duquesne 53-32
3) West Virginia 27-57
4) UMass 45-29
5) Temple 15-50
6) URI 34-30
7) St. Joe's 28-36
8) St. Bona 35-28
9) Va Tech 27-34
10) Georgetown 31-24
11) Maryland 16-34
 

Thanks. I guess the games with Duques and UR now outnumber what had been one of college basketball´s oldest rivalries.To their credit, I don´t think Richmond has ever brought a weapon-toting mascot to the Smith Center wanting to set off blank shots when their team takes the court. And their fans are less likely (though not entirely unlikely) to drive to the game in a pick-up truck with a gun rack or to wear overalls.
 

Now I know why VCU was let in to the conference.  To replace West Virginia fans.  (We kid because we love...)

GW's ongoing identity crisis continues.  Ask GW who it's biggest rival was before the turn of the century and it would have likely said UMASS.  Ask UMASS and they would have gone with either URI (proximity) or Temple (on court performance).  Eventually, GW would play a series of highly charged games against Xavier but Xavier would put both Cincinnati and Dayton, in that order, ahead of us.  We've played Richmond twice per season so many times that it would today seem logical to say Richmond was our top rival (at least based on games played) but of course, Richmond has VCU ahead of us.  I guess this leaves George Mason, which makes the most sense but just doesn't feel like a legitimate rivalry yet.  Maybe over time?

What's interesting about the Richmond series is that Chris Mooney has been there long enough to go from seemingly never being able to beat GW to seemingly never being able to lose to GW.  
 

11-13 for Richmond? What!

Bam, please no showboating in a close game. when up 15 ok, now?!

Tennessee Colonial wrote:

Bam, please no showboating in a close game. when up 15 ok, now?!

We are getting both the best and worst of Joe so far tonight..