GW is 0-6 versus the top 6 teams in the league and 6-1 versus the bottom 6. GW is tied at .500 with Mason in the middle. So this is a huge game, and should be a good one.

George Mason Patriots (Round 2)

Preview

Date/Time: Sunday February 27th @ 2:30 PM ET at EagleBank Arena in Fairfax, VA.
TV: USA Network
2021-22 Projected Record: 15-14, 8-8 (7th in A10)

Offensive Efficiency: 93rd (KenPom), 90th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 146th (KenPom), 142nd (Bart Torvik)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 92nd
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 76th
Rim & 3 Rate: 85% (73rd in country)
Pace: 296th (KenPom), 292nd (Bart Torvik) - The tempo battle will be interesting to watch. If Mason slows things down on both ends, they may find great success against us.

Projected Starting Rotation:
Josh Oduro (Junior; Gainesville, VA) 18 PPG, 7 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1 SPG, 1.7 BPG; 55% FG, 33% 3-PT, 71% FT
      Game 1 vs. GW: DNP (lower leg injury)

D'Shawn Schwartz (Senior; Colorado Springs, CO) 15.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.1 APG; 46% FG, 39% 3-PT, 73% FT
      Game 1 vs. GW: 27 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks; 10-20 FG, 1-7 3-PT, 6-8 FT in 38 minutes.

DeVon Cooper (Senior; Louisville, KY) 11.8 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.3 APG; 44% FG, 41% 3-PT, 72% FT
      Game 1 vs. GW: 13 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists; 4-10 FG, 3-4 3-PT, 2-2 FT in 34 minutes.

Davonte 'Ticket' Gaines (Junior; Buffalo, NY) 10.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.7 APG; 47% FG, 41% 3-PT, 77% FT
      Game 1 vs. GW: 10 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists; 4-8 FG, 0-2 3-PT, 2-4 FT in 40 minutes.

Xavier Johnson (Junior; Germantown, MD) 8.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.1 SPG; 41% FG, 36% 3-PT, 72% FT
      Game 1 vs. GW: 12 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists; 5-10 FG, 0-2 3-PT, 2-4 FT in 34 minutes.

Mason has gone with different lineups off the bench during conference play, so it's not really worth listing all the potential names. That's especially true given all five of their starters average over 30 minutes per game (Johnson is 7th, Gaines is 8th, Schwartz is 9th, Cooper is 12th, and Oduro is 25th in the league in minutes played) and none of their bench players even average 4 ppg. It's not quite Bonaventure bad (four of the top five minutes leaders in the A10 are Bonnies players) but English certainly leans more on the starters. It actually makes me appreciate JC's rotations a bit more as we don't have any players in the top 25 in minutes played in the A10 (I believe Duquesne and Rhode Island are the only other teams that have none).

Team Conference Stats (in A10 play):
3-Point FGs Made Per Game: 9.2 (T-1st in A10)
Assists Per Game: 14.92 APG (4th in A10)
Rebounding Margin: +1.5 RPG (4th in A10)
Team 3-Point FG Percentage: 36.9% (4th in A10)
Team Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 26.4 (4th in A10)
Combined Opponent Team Rebounds Per Game: 33 RPG (5th in A10)
Scoring Offense: 70.9 PPG (5th in A10)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.22 (6th in A10)
Team Field Goal Percentage: 45.4% (6th in A10)
Scoring Margin: -0.1 PPG (7th in A10)
Combined Team Rebounds Per Game: 34.5 RPG (8th in A10)
Opponent Field Goal Percentage: 43.6% (8th in A10)
Blocked Shots Per Game: 2.77 BPG (10th in A10)
Opponent 3-Point FG Percentage: 35.7% (10th in A10)
Opponent FT Percentage: 72.2% (10th in A10)
Scoring Defense: 71 PPG (10th in A10)
Team FT Percentage: 67.3% (11th in A10)
Turnover Margin: -1.23 (11th in A10)
Steals Per Game: 4.54 SPG (12th in A10)
Team Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 8.1 (T-12th in A10)

From the above stats it is clear Mason's two biggest strengths are shooting the three and crashing the glass defensively. Given the our usual strong perimeter defense, that seems to be good news for us although it remains to be seen how much attention Oduro will command down low since we didn't face him in the first game.

Although on initial glance it appears Mason is a relatively strong rebounding team, they are primarily strong on the defensive end. JC's teams at GW or otherwise have never really crashed the offensive glass so that doesn't really affect us too much. More importantly, Mason similarly doesn't crash the offensive glass hard (we are last, they are tied for second to last) which should hopefully help us out in limiting second chance opportunities. GMU isn't an overly aggressive team defensively so we should be able to put up a decent amount of points in this one assuming shots fall.

Individual Conference Stats (in A10 play):

Scoring:
Josh Oduro - 19.3 ppg (1st in A10) -> the game will feature the top 3 scorers in the A10 as Bishop and Bamisile are currently #2 and #3 in scoring thus far in conference play.
D'Shawn Schwartz - 15.7 ppg (7th in A10)

Rebounding:
Davonte Gaines - 8.2 rpg (4th in A10)
Josh Oduro - 7.9 rpg (T-6th in A10)

Field Goal Percentage:
Josh Oduro - 51% (15th in A10)
D'Shawn Schwartz - 47.3% (23rd in A10)

3-PT Field Goal Percentage:
DeVon Cooper - 42.3% (8th in A10)
D'Shawn Schwartz - 40.2% (12th in A10)
Xavier Johnson - 38.2% (17th in A10)

Free Throw Percentage:
Josh Oduro - 74.5% (23rd in A10) -> Oduro is a reasonably good FT shooter, so hacking him probably isn't an option tomorrow.
Davonte Gaines - 74.1% (24th in A10)

3-PT Field Goals Per Game:
D'Shawn Schwartz - 2.7 (T-1st in A10) -> Schwartz was off the mark in Game 1, making only one three in the game. He likely makes at least two tomorrow.
DeVon Cooper - 2.5 (5th in A10)
Xavier Johnson - 1.6 (25th in A10)

Assists:
Xavier Johnson - 5.4 apg (T-6th in A10)
Josh Oduro - 2.4 apg (T-20th in A10) -> Oduro can likely pass out of a double team, but I still think it's worth trying for a bit tomorrow to see what happens.
D'Shawn Schwartz - 2.2 apg (T-23rd in A10)

Blocked Shots:
Josh Oduro - 2 bpg (5th in A10)

Steals:
Xavier Johnson - 1.1 spg (T-19th in A10)

Haslametrics Preview:

G. WASHINGTON IN POSSESSION:

The George Mason defense appears to have a small advantage on the G. Washington offense at this end of the court. This site rates George Mason to be 133rd in the nation in defensive efficiency, while G. Washington is currently our #227 squad in offensive efficiency.

SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The G. Washington offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the George Mason defense similarly surrenders several more opportunities from the outside. Against the George Mason defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the G. Washington offense will be 43.1% three-pointers (6.0% above the D1 average), 26.8% mid-range jumpers (1.3% below the D1 average), and 30.1% near-proximity twos (4.7% below the D1 average).

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: G. Washington has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 213th nationally in that category this year. The George Mason defense, meanwhile, has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 115th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the G. Washington offense has a notable advantage in near-proximity shooting, while the George Mason defense has the edge in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting. This site expects G. Washington to shoot 32.6% from three (1.6% below the D1 average), 33.0% from the mid-range (5.6% below the D1 average), 61.4% from near-proximity locations (2.3% above the D1 average), and 41.4% overall (2.7% below the D1 average).

REBOUNDING: George Mason will very likely win the rebound battle on this end of the court. G. Washington appears to be a unit that is below-average by NCAA standards on the offensive glass. As far as turning offensive rebounds into fast points, they're a relatively average unit, rated 134th in the country in second-chance conversion rate. George Mason, meanwhile, appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, and they're likewise top-notch in the category of defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #14 in the country there).

TURNOVERS: The G. Washington offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the George Mason defense. On offense, G. Washington is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 275th in the nation in that category. Meanwhile, the George Mason D is a tad more conservative than most D1 units. Furthermore, they'll rarely convert takeaways into quick points, evidenced by their #296 ranking in that category.

FREE THROWS: G. Washington will probably acquire fewer free throw attempts than normal in this encounter. They're usually a team that won't get to the charity stripe very often (nationally ranked #306 in free throw attempt rate), though they're more mediocre converting their shots from there (70.0%, 221st in the country). Meanwhile, the more reserved George Mason defense sports a relatively mediocre defensive free throw attempt rate, one that rates 139th in the NCAA this season.

GEORGE MASON IN POSSESSION:

When pitted against the G. Washington defense, the George Mason offense appears to have somewhat of an advantage. George Mason is currently 101st in the country in offensive efficiency, while G. Washington nationally comes in at #186 in defensive efficiency.

SHOT SELECTION: These two teams exhibit contrasting shot preferences on this end of the court. The George Mason offense leans solidly toward putting up more outside shots, while the G. Washington defense conversely tends to give up a few more chances from the paint. Against the G. Washington defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the George Mason offense will be 42.3% three-pointers (5.1% above the D1 average), 18.8% mid-range jumpers (9.3% below the D1 average), and 39.0% near-proximity twos (4.2% above the D1 average).

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: George Mason has been converting field goals at a solid rate and is rated our #75 team in overall field goal percentage this season. Meanwhile, the G. Washington defense has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 188th nationally in that category. On this end of the court, the George Mason offense has an analytical edge in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two opposing units are rated fairly evenly in mid-range shooting. We expect George Mason to shoot 36.3% from behind the arc (2.0% above the D1 average), 38.4% from mid-range locations (0.2% below the D1 average), 62.8% from near-proximity (3.6% above the D1 average), and 47.0% overall (2.9% above the D1 average).

REBOUNDING: G. Washington may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. George Mason is really nothing special on the offensive glass. That being said, they're actually horrible when it comes to converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 335th nationally in that category. The opposition here, G. Washington, has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, and they likewise rate right around the average in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #161 in that category).

TURNOVERS: The George Mason offense has a small advantage over the G. Washington defense in the turnover game on this end. When in possession, George Mason exemplifies ball-security to a degree slightly superior to the average NCAA team. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is respectable, as the squad places 99th in the country in that category. As for the opposition, the G. Washington defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 124th in that category).

FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. George Mason obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (224th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (68.7%, ranked #270 in Division I). As for the opposition, the G. Washington D is pretty average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 135th in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: We'd forecast a fairly average tempo by Division I standards here. G. Washington (126th nationally in game pace) likes a fairly average tempo, but George Mason (264th) would rather maintain a slower pace.

AWAY/HOME COURT: The analytics fail to reveal a significant advantage for either team in this category.

MOMENTUM: G. Washington has a sizeable momentum edge here. They come into this contest playing above their norm (46th in the country in positive momentum), while George Mason (304th) has performed a bit below their own standards recently.

CONSISTENCY: G. Washington is the more consistent team from an efficiency standpoint, but the difference is largely negligible.

Projected Score: Mason 75, Washington 65. 16% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us an 11.3% chance at a W. Not saying our chances are particularly high, but I feel like those percentages should be slightly higher. If we fail to send doubles Oduro's way then it is probably correct. It should be a good game nonetheless, although the continued "revolutionary rivalry" label remains laughably inaccurate. I don't really have any hatred for Mason, and they haven't had any team that I've hated, whether we've won or lost. Apart from obviously wanting their favorite team to come out on top, most fans of the two schools probably feel the same way. I guess it helps that English comes across pretty likable. The Patriots open as a 10 point home favorite.
 

Best not to force up shots

Shot selection hideous.   Rebounding hideous.  Interior defense hideous.

Oduro may put up 30 and 20

Offense back to one person dribbles and 4 stand around and watch.

Dean/Brown combo turning 13 into all American

Noel Brown open right next to basket when Bamisile struggled.

Has Mason had a possession when Oduro has not touched the ball? (Maybe the steal by Freeman?).

Hopefully at halftime the rugby highlights are of the Northamton-Exeter match and not the Ireland-Italy farce.
 

Coach somewhat animated during TO