Alum '04 wrote:

The Dude wrote:

More than 2 is a clear path to explain.  Dayton beats Davidson this weekend, both Dayton and VCU go the Finals of the A10 tourney. The winner gets the auto bid loser is deemed to have done just enough to get in = 3.

Davidson + the A10 Tourney winner = 2. 

Davidson wins the tourney and the bubble teams all lose early, worst case and least likely scenario = 1

 

Man, that will be a cold depressing day if/when the A-10 becomes a one-bid league. Bernadette McGlade should be fired if she ever allows that to happen. Actually, she should probably be fired anyway for putting the league in this position.

I wonder if Bernadette feels personally responsible for how many bids the A-10 gets. That's part of her job, right, to get more bids? Everything in this league revolves around bids: player and coaching talent, salaries, TV ratings. You name it.

Once it gets to the Selection Committee is over. Nothing a non-Power conference commissioner can do. Seems to me their biggest job is coming up with a league scheduling formula that maximizes bid chances. Even then with the big boys increasing the number of conference games the greed boa constrictor is going to win.

But it’s not all pessimism Loyola wouldn’t be joining the A10 if it was short term toast.

The Dude wrote:

A lot of Power 6 bubble teams have already lost today, including:

Florida
Indiana
Va Tech
Oregon

So that should help.   

Unfortunately Davidson and VCU both lost (both Q1 losses, so shouldn’t hurt too much, but big opportunity missed for both teams). Going to be very close.  I have a hard time seeing the loser of VCU/Dayton semi (assuming it happens) making it.   Maybe we can still get two.

Here's a good and important take from John Gassaway.  

Quad 1 wins are one criteria not the ONLY criteria and the % in Quad 1 is what matters, 3-9 in Quad 1 s not better than 2-1 obviously

"Bubble Watch 2022 has something of a hunger-hate relationship with Quadrant 1 wins.On the one hand, we hunger for the latest information on such victories. Quadrant 1 games can indeed measurably improve a team's profile. But -- and this is the important bit --

Quadrant 1 wins are not the sole means by which a team can strengthen its body of work.Which is why we at Bubble Watch HQ also hate that a relative lack of Quadrant 1 wins is so often and so reflexively used as a club to beat up on this or that team's alleged tournament worthiness.The NET rankings are analytically sound and the rating percentage  In both volume and success rate, that's a track record in Q1 games similar to what we've seen from Bubble Watch mainstays like Michigan, San Diego State or Michigan State.

Of course, no one seriously maintains that a team like ASU that's under-.500 overall is at-large material. That's a good instinct! Perhaps we can take this same "consider it along with everything else" attitude toward Q1 records and export it to actual bubble teams?

Doing so might help us better evaluate a bubble team with a poor Q1 record like North Carolina or, for that matter, a lock with a thin Q1 record like Houston."

Last edited by The Dude (3/06/2022 1:24 pm)

From Gassaway's latest on the Bubble 

High hopes in the Atlantic 10: VCU looks good in the NET rankings and great in strength of record. To coax the committee into studying the team sheet in question, the Rams will want to take care of business in the quarters (possibly against local rival Richmond) and reach a potential semifinal showdown with Dayton.

The Flyers, needless to say, have at-large hopes of their own after defeating Davidson on the last day of the regular season.

Last edited by The Dude (3/09/2022 1:57 am)

OT and BC is up 6 late on Wake

Wake with 1 Quad win, (0-4 vs the ACC) has got to be in a precarious spot with a loss to 13th seed BC in such a down year, if BC can hold on

Palm had Wake in his First 4 Out so this is a brutal loss, he has VCU spots behind them in his First 4 Out, and Rutgers 1 spot ahead of Wake in his last 4 in. Impactful huge upset loss.

There it is! Down Goes Wake to BC!!  Bubble Madness has begun

Last edited by The Dude (3/09/2022 5:08 pm)

dmvpiranha wrote:

Add Xavier to the list of teams who are probably on the wrong side of the bubble now (and they probably deserve to be out).

Scruggs made an incredible layup late but then proceeded to foul a Butler player when they were up only 2. It wasn't an accidental foul but an intentional one. X ended up losing in overtime.

Probably one of the worst late game meltdowns I've ever seen if not the worst. He seemed to be arguing with Steele afterwards that there was a miscommunication but you have to know time and score there.
 

Lunardi began the day with Xavier and Wake in last 4 in.  So if these brutal losses slide then down it would slide I VCU or Dayton into the field I forget which he has 2 away, one of them.
 

Florida loses to Texas A&M, a Quad 2 loss that should eliminate Florida, a bubble team

3-9 in Quad 1 4-3 Quad 2, and they have a Quad 4 loss.

 

Free Quebec wrote:

The Dude wrote:

Michigan blows a 60-43 lead late, and loses to Indiana.  

Maybe should've extended Howard's suspension through the Big10 Tourney and Let Martelli keep coaching the team

Michigan is 17-14 5-9 Quad 1 3-4 Quad 2 and has a Quad 3 loss.

But I think the're in anyway.  A10 fans were better off with Indiana losing.  at least if you believe the Lunardis

If 17-4 with a losing record against both Q1 and 2 gets you in, this will be used as evidence for years of how stacked the system is in favor of the big money boyz

That's the hypocrisy of the system, not applied consistently. Michigan has a losing record vs Quad 1 and Quad 2 and a Quad 3 loss and they lost 14 games and its not like they had a good OCC, they lost at home to Seton Hall, they got blown out by North Carolina and Arizona.  In both the OCC and Big10 they lost most of the big games.   If they get in, its the system working as designed, as long as applied inconsistently.  

The system is designed to keep at North Texas, a school that's 1-1 in Quad  5-2 in Quad 2 23-5 overall with a 41 Net. 
the top 3 A10 teams have pretty similar resumes to North Texas, its designed to keep them out too

 

The Good news for the A10:

Prior losses + UVA a bubble team is getting blown out by North Carolina.  This North Carolina team which did little all year looks pretty dangerous fresh off the road Duke win and now again tonight

Iowa St another bubble team is getting absolutely drilled

Richmond has come back on Rhode Island, I think with GW out we basically want the chalk to advance each round.

(UVA with 13 points sets a new record for the ACC Tourney futility in a half.)

Bad news, looks like Oklahoma may have pushed onto a seed line with a win over Baylor.  

Iowa St is now losing 66-30.  I thought they were a bubble team at 20-11 and 7-11 in league play. with a 41 NET before this titanic blowout, but nope, they are an expected 7 seed.

8-8 in Quad 1, 2-3 Quad 2 and 2-1 Quad 3.    That's a team massively helped by the Quad 1 emphasis.  12 losses, 3-3 vs Quad 2 and 3.   They did have a really good OOC, its a tourney worth resume IMO. not sure about a 7 seed though.

Also Ohio St lost to a bad Penn St team, but they look safe too.  Same story basically.

Last edited by The Dude (3/10/2022 11:29 pm)

Triple OT UAB and Midd Tenn, what a game

Both of these teams look Tourney worth, we'd be better served having them in the tourney than a 51 Net ACC team putting in its 6th best team in a down year