Fordham Rams (Round 2)

Preview

Date/Time: Saturday March 5th @ 2:00 PM ET at Rose Hill Gymnasium in The Bronx, NY. Final regular season game!

I believe this is the first game Fordham is allowing a full audience to attend a game in conference play. It will be interesting to see how much of a lift it gives the Rams tomorrow. Not that they need it necessarily as they will be plenty motivated on Senior Day I assume.

TV: ESPN+
2021-22 Projected Record: 15-15, 8-10 (9th in A10)

Offensive Efficiency: 309th (KenPom), 326th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 51st (KenPom), 39th (Bart Torvik)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 292nd
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 70th
Rim & 3 Rate: 86% (50th in country)
Pace: 132nd (KenPom), 125th (Bart Torvik)

Projected Starting Rotation:
Darius Quisenberry (Senior; Springfield, OH) 16.8 PPG, 4 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.5 SPG; 37% FG, 32% 3-PT, 80% FT** (He has been coming off the bench the last couple games after being sidelined with a leg injury, but I figure he's going to start on Senior Day)
      Game 1 vs. GW: 15 points, 4 rebounds, 2 steals; 6-16 FG, 1-4 3-PT, 2-2 FT in 37 minutes.

Chuba Ohams (RS Senior; The Bronx, NY) 14.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.7 BPG; 50% FG, 33% 3-PT, 62% FT
      Game 1 vs. GW: 13 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks; 4-11 FG, 5-6 FT in 32 minutes.

Josh Colon-Navarro (Senior; Carolina, Puerto Rico) 7.6 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1 SPG; 36% FG, 33% 3-PT, 87% FT
      Game 1 vs. GW: 8 points, 2 assists, 2 steals; 3-8 FG, 2-5 3-PT in 25 minutes.

Antrell Charlton (Sophomore; Live Oak, FL) 7.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.8 SPG; 34% FG, 28% 3-PT, 70% FT
      Game 1 vs. GW: 3 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals; 1-4 FG, 1-3 3-PT in 32 minutes.

Abdou Tsimbila (RS Freshman; Yaounde, Cameroon) 2.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG; 43% FG, 63% FT
      Game 1 vs. GW: 2 rebounds; 0-1 FG in 11 minutes.

Projected Off the Bench Rotation:
Kyle Rose (Junior; Upper Marlboro, MD) 7.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.2 SPG; 39% FG, 34% 3-PT, 84% FT
      Game 1 vs. GW: 13 points, 4 rebounds, 2 steals; 5-13 FG, 3-9 3-PT in 35 minutes.

Patrick Kelly (RS Freshman; Raleigh, NC) 2.8 PPG, 1.8 RPG; 32% FG, 29% 3-PT
      Game 1 vs. GW: Saw 2 minutes of action.

Zach Riley (Freshman; Aukland, New Zealand) 2.1 PPG, 1.1 RPG; 36% FG, 31% 3-PT, 33% FT
      Game 1 vs. GW: 3 points; 1-1 FG, 1-1 3-PT in 4 minutes.

Rostyslav Novitskyi (Sophomore; Kyiv, Ukraine) 1.5 PPG, 1.8 RPG; 43% FG, 29% 3-PT, 88% FT (Hope Novitskyi's family and everyone in Ukraine is staying safe. This is a good read on Novitskyi and the ongoing situation overseas. It can't be easy to be playing while he has family members back in Ukraine.)
      Game 1 vs. GW: Saw 7 minutes of action; 0-2 FG, 0-1 3-PT

We might see a few minutes from freshman/Baltimore native Ahmad Harrison as well (1.2 PPG; 24% FG, 69% FT), but he doesn't figure to play significant minutes if he does see the floor. He did play 15 minutes against us but has seen less action in recent games.

Team Conference Stats (in A10 play):
Opponent 3-Point FG Percentage: 30.9% (T-3rd in A10)
Steals Per Game: 7.59 SPG (3rd in A10)
Combined Team Rebounds Per Game: 35.4 RPG (4th in A10)
Team Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 10.5 RPG (4th in A10)
Opponent FT Percentage: 70.1% (T-5th in A10)
Scoring Defense: 66.1 PPG (5th in A10)
Turnover Margin: 0.29 (5th in A10)
3-Point FGs Made Per Game: 7.6 (T-6th in A10)
Opponent Field Goal Percentage: 42.6% (6th in A10)
Team Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 24.9 RPG (7th in A10)
Blocked Shots Per Game: 3.53 BPG (8th in A10)
Team FT Percentage: 72.8% (8th in A10)
Scoring Margin: -3.8 PPG (10th in A10)
Combined Opponent Team Rebounds Per Game: 38 RPG (12th in A10)
Rebounding Margin: -2.6 RPG (12th in A10)
Team 3-Point FG Percentage: 30.9% (12th in A10)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 0.88 (13th in A10)
Assists Per Game: 12.18 APG (13th in A10)
Scoring Offense: 62.2 PPG (13th in A10)
Team Field Goal Percentage: 38.1% (14th in A10)

The stats above magnify Fordham's abilities on one side of the ball over the other. They have certainly carried the lockdown defense from Neubauer's tenure but have improved slightly offensively with a better scheme. I would imagine the offense improves as Neptune continues to bring in his guys to replicate lower-league Villanova down the road.

It's interesting to note that Fordham shoots the exact same percentage from distance as they give up against the opposition (30.9%). Coincidentally, that is also the same percentage we are holding opponents to behind the line in conference play. If the jumpers are not falling early hopefully this encourages us to go inside more. The faster we can get Ohams in foul trouble, the better.

Fordham is a decent rebounding squad thanks largely to Ohams but they also surrender their fair share of rebounds so there's a chance the rebounding battle has a chance of being relatively even. We outrebounded Fordham by 8 in Game 1. Like the Duquesne game, it's imperative that we box out and prevent Fordham from getting second chance opportunities. Given their relative ineptitude shooting the ball, they will certainly crash the glass. The Rams have the worst field goal percentage in conference play, are second to last in points per game, and are generally not very good at sharing the ball (second to last in assists per game). There's a lot of one-on-one isolation sets when Charlton isn't initiating the offense.

Individual Conference Stats (in A10 play):

Scoring:
Chuba Ohams - 14.2 ppg (13th in A10)
Surprised Quisenberry isn't on the list, but perhaps he's missed a few too many games to qualify.

Rebounding:
Chuba Ohams - 11.3 rpg (1st in A10) -> We did a decent job keeping Ohams off the glass last time around as he "only" came down with 10 rebounds. Part of his rebounding total is a product of the Rams bricking a lot of shots, but Ohams poses a serious challenge for us tomorrow.

Field Goal Percentage:
None in the top 25.

3-PT Field Goal Percentage:
Kyle Rose - 35.7% (24th in A10)

Free Throw Percentage:
Josh Colon-Navarro - 89.7% (2nd in A10)

3-PT Field Goals Per Game:
Josh Colon-Navarro - 1.9 (T-16th in A10)
Kyle Rose - 1.8 (T-20th in A10)

Assists:
Antrell Charlton - 4.4 apg (9th in A10) Charlton is an interesting player. He is more of a combo guard who does the small things - rebound, pass the ball, and play good on-ball defense but he struggles with efficiency when he shoots the ball.

Blocked Shots:
Chuba Ohams - 1.5 bpg (T-8th in A10)
Abdou Tsimbila - 0.9 bpg (T-15th in A10)
Rostyslav Novitskyi - 0.8 bpg (T-17th in A10)

Fordham does have some rim protection, but I hope that doesn't scare us away from attacking the hoop tomorrow. Settling for jump shots that don't fall could be problematic in the game.

Steals:
Antrell Charlton - 1.9 spg (T-5th in A10)
Kyle Rose - 1.2 spg (T-16th in A10)
Josh Colon-Navarro - 1.1 spg (T-19th in A10)

Fordham's pressure in the second half last time got them back in the game and we cannot play as sloppy against them as we did against Duquesne on Wednesday.

Haslametrics Preview:

G. WASHINGTON IN POSSESSION:
The G. Washington offense appears to be at an analytical disadvantage when matched up against the Fordham defense. The Fordham defense is ranked #64 in Division I, while G. Washington comes in nationally at #245 on offense.

SHOT SELECTION: The G. Washington offense is relatively balanced with inside and outside shots alike, while the Fordham defense typically allows marginally more chances from the paint than from the perimeter. Against the Fordham defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the G. Washington offense will be 33.4% three-pointers (3.6% below the D1 average), 28.4% mid-range jumpers (a shade below the D1 average), and 38.2% near-proximity twos (3.6% above the D1 average).

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: G. Washington rates in the middle of the Division I pack when it comes to floor shooting and is currently ranked #226 in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Fordham defense has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #115 team nationally in that category). The Fordham defense appears to have a noteworthy advantage at all three levels on this end. This site expects G. Washington to shoot 27.3% from three (6.7% below the D1 average), 37.0% from the mid-range (2.0% below the D1 average), 55.8% from near-proximity locations (3.2% below the D1 average), and 41.0% overall (3.1% below the D1 average).

REBOUNDING: Fordham would appear to have a comfortable rebounding advantage on this end. G. Washington has the fingerprint of a team whose offensive rebounding abilities are a bit worse than the D1 norm. As far as turning offensive rebounds into fast points, they're a relatively average unit, rated 130th in the country in second-chance conversion rate. Their opponent in this matchup, Fordham, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they've similarly been solid squashing opponents' putback conversion rates (nationally ranked 63rd in that category).

TURNOVERS: The Fordham defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this G. Washington offense. On offense, G. Washington has plenty of room for improvement when it comes to securing the basketball. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly inadequate, as the team places 295th in the nation in that category. As for the opposition, the Fordham defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 106th in that category).

FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. G. Washington isn't all that great at getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #283 in free throw attempt rate), though they're more mediocre converting their shots from there (71.1%, ranked #193 in Division I). As for the opposition, the Fordham D has a defensive free throw attempt rate that lands somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack (ranked 197th nationally in that category).

FORDHAM IN POSSESSION:
The G. Washington defense will very likely have a solid upper hand on the Fordham offense in this particular matchup. This site rates G. Washington to be 168th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Fordham is currently our #297 squad in offensive efficiency.

SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams contrast somewhat on this end of the floor. The Fordham offense leans slightly toward putting up more outside shots, while the G. Washington defense conversely tends to give up a few more chances from the paint. Against the G. Washington defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Fordham offense will be 39.3% three-pointers (2.3% above the D1 average), 19.1% mid-range jumpers (9.4% below the D1 average), and 41.7% near-proximity twos (7.1% above the D1 average).

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Fordham has consistently failed to convert field goals this season (#344 nationally in overall field goal percentage). The G. Washington defense, meanwhile, rates as somewhat average in defensive field goal conversion rate (ranked #170 nationally in that category). The G. Washington defense has a sizeable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. We expect Fordham to shoot 28.4% from behind the arc (5.6% below the D1 average), 27.4% from mid-range locations (11.7% below the D1 average), 56.7% from near-proximity (2.4% below the D1 average), and 40.0% overall (4.1% below the D1 average).

REBOUNDING: G. Washington may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Fordham rates as a team that shouldn't be considered a force on the offensive glass. When it comes to converting second-chance opportunities, they're unremarkable, coming in at #202 nationally in our ratings there. Meanwhile, G. Washington has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, and they're similarly only fair in defensive putback conversion percentage (ranked 140th in the country there).

TURNOVERS: The G. Washington defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. When in possession, Fordham is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. Meanwhile, the G. Washington D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 125th in that category).

FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. The Fordham offense obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (189th in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (72.8%, 143rd in the country). Meanwhile, the G. Washington D is pretty average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 156th in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: We'd forecast a fairly average tempo by Division I standards here. G. Washington (125th nationally in game pace) prefers a faster tempo, while Fordham (164th) likes more of an in-between game speed.

AWAY/HOME COURT: The analytics fail to reveal a significant advantage for either team in this category.

MOMENTUM: G. Washington has the advantage in this department. They've been playing better ball as of late and are currently ranked 72nd in the country in positive momentum.

CONSISTENCY: Fordham is one of college basketball's more consistent teams, ranking 56th in the country in consistency. G. Washington rates more in the middle.

Projected Score: Fordham 68, GW 63. 29% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 27.4% chance to finish the season over .500 in A10 play. Fordham opens as a 4.5 point home favorite.

Goals for tomorrow: (really in any game moving forward)
1) Hold Fordham to fewer than 10 offensive rebounds. They had 8 in our first game against them.
2) Get to the line 15-20 times and force Ohams off the floor with foul trouble.
3) Finish with 12-15 assists as a team. We had 14 in game 1 and will run into trouble if we resort to 1 on 5 ball.
4) Have Brendan, Hunter, and Qwanzi combine for six made baskets.
5) Finish with more assists than turnovers and cough the ball up fewer than 15 times in the game.
6) Have Ricky play 30 minutes without fouling out. He has fouled out in the past two games. Lindo only had three fouls in 29 minutes in Game 1 against Fordham.
7) Have Noel see 5-10 minutes of action.
8) Let Amir get a few minutes in the game if either JB needs a breather.
 

Second that Thanks!

Freeman
Bishop
Bamisile
Lindo
Dean

Dean should take it to the basket just to try to get fouls on Ohams.

They've been leaving Dean open quite a bit.  He may need to take a couple of those baseline jumpers.

Good Samuels showing up today

Why is Dean covering that guy 25 feet away from the hoop?

It's pretty remarkable how invisible a 6'11" person can be on rebounds

Qwanzi from 3 is definitely not on most scouting reports.