Misread that initially, you're right! 

Well, here's a pretty good chance for our first 3 game win streak in awhile....
 

We got a line yet?

Radford Highlanders

Date/Time: Sunday December 4th @ 2:00 PM ET at The Donald N. Dedmon Center in Radford, VA. The arena seats 3,800 people.
TV: ESPN+
Preseason Ranks: 295th (KenPom), 299th (Bart Torvik), 246th (Sports Illustrated)
2021-22 Record: 11-18, 7-9 (T-7th in Big South)
2022-23 Projected Record: 16-15, 9-9 (T-5th in Big South)

Head-to-Head: 2-0. We took game 1 of the home-and-home series 67-58 last season. The final score suggested Radford was within striking distance the entire game, but that was in fact not the case. We pulled a "Maryland Eastern Shore" in the final minute of the contest as we were up 14 with 1:10 left to go in the game. The only difference is that the deficit was not cut due to careless turnovers but rather a bunch of missed free throws and terrible closeouts defensively where we did not know how to contest a shot without running into the player. We lost Bryan Hart, Radford's third leading scorer countless times during this stretch. Through 39 minutes, he had 0 points on 0-6 shooting but put up 11(!) in the final minute, including two unacceptable four point plays where Qwanzi and Brayon took turns running into him after he made a three. We had otherwise done a solid job defending the Highlanders as they shot under 40% from the field for the game and 50% from the line to offset a very cold shooting night where GW went 4-21 from 3. Brendan, Ricky, and Joe combined to go 0 of 13 from distance. We did a poor job of passing the ball as was often the case in the JC era - the team finished with just 9 assists. Unfortunately, the Radford game was also a prime example of how we devalued post play in previous years - Hunter started, but did not take a single shot in 15 minutes. It's been great to see more balance this year with Hunter usually getting at least 3-4 shots a game now. JB led the way with 21 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 steals. Brayon was still coming off the bench at this point in OOC season, but provided a nice boost with 16 points, 2 assists, and 2 steals. Brendan added 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists and Ricky had perhaps the best game of the bunch with a double-double (10 points, 14 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks), showcasing his ability to impact every facet of the game.

Preseason Offensive Efficiency: 329th (KenPom), 275th (Bart Torvik)
Preseason Defensive Efficiency: 235th (KenPom), 291st (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 326th (KenPom), 237th (Bart Torvik)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 321st
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 190th
Rim & 3 Rate: 86% (182nd)

Strengths:
Honestly...not really anything in particular.

Weaknesses:
3-PT Field Goal Defense (258th)
Win-Loss Percentage (T-259th)
Total 3-PT Field Goals Made (T-264th)
Personal Fouls Per Game (269th)
Total Rebounds Per Game (270th)
Scoring Margin (280th)
Turnovers Per Game (280th)
Field Goal Percentage Defense (291st)
Field Goal Percentage (300th)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage (310th)
Free Throw Attempts (T-310th)
Free Throw Percentage (314th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game (315th)
Total Rebounds (316th)
Assists Per Game (319th)
Free Throws Made (323rd)
Total Assists (T-325th)
Assist Turnover Ratio (326th)
Scoring Offense (330th)
Blocked Shots Per Game (347th)
Total Blocks (349th)

Key Returning Players:
Josiah Jeffers (Senior; Burlington, NC) 10 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.8 spg; 41% FG, 31% 3-PT, 69% FT
       Last Season vs. GW: DNP
Shaquan Jules (Senior; Orlando, FL) 5.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg; 62% FG, 57% FT
       Last Season vs. GW: 4 points, 3 rebounds; 1-2 FG, 2-4 FT in 10 minutes.

Key Losses:
Rashun Williams (Transferred to D2 UT Tyler; Arlington, GA) 9.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1 apg; 39% FG, 32% 3-PT, 73% FT
Bryan Hart (Left Team; Hampton, VA) 8.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1 spg; 35% FG, 32% 3-PT, 83% FT
Dravon Mangum (Transferred to Louisiana Tech; Roxboro, NC) 7.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg; 41% FG, 33% 3-PT, 75% FT
Artese Stapleton (Transferred to D2 Lincoln MO; Chicago, IL) 7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.1 spg; 48% FG, 36% 3-PT, 73% FT

Comments:
It's always a nice story when a coach returns home to take over a program he's familiar with. After spending 10 years as an assistant at a number of programs that have had great success in their histories -  including Northern Kentucky, Wofford, Louisiana Tech, and Florida - Darris Nichols had certainly earned the right to take over a program as a head coach with a reputation of being a tireless recruiter. While on the surface one may assume that Radford isn't a particularly desirable job, history indicates that the Highlanders have actually had quite a bit of success. Before departing for UNC Greensboro last offseason, Mike Jones had 5 20+ win seasons in his decade at the helm. He wasn't the only coach to find success, as three of Radford's past four coaches have made the NCAA tournament and they have had 11 20+ win seasons since they went D1 in the mid 1980s. While Nichols himself isn't an alum of the school, he grew up in the same town and witnessed the highs of the Radford program.

The Highlanders were always going to very much be a work in progress in year 1 under Nichols but they showed that they were going to play hard no matter what. Their grueling non-conference schedule which included matchups against regional schools in Virginia and Virginia Tech as well as a matchup against West Virginia, his alma mater where he averaged double figures in his final two seasons as a player. During his time as a student, the Mountaineers made an Elite Eight, 2 Sweet 16s, and won the NIT. Pretty pretty good.

Anyways, that OOC schedule taught Radford how to compete. While they got blown out in a number of contests early on, it appeared that Nichols' squad had turned things around in Big South play. Radford played 14 of their 17 games within three possessions, and unfortunately went 0-3 in overtime games which included a first round defeat to North Carolina A&T (now in the CAA) in the conference tournament to end their season. Had those contests ended up going in their favor they would have finished over .500 in conference with 14 wins which is a fairly successful first year for any head coach.

Despite a reasonably respectable performance the second half of the year though, Radford's cover rate was among the worst in the nation last season as they went an abysmal 9-18 against the spread - only NC State, Pacific, Cal State Bakersfield, Oregon State, Marshall, Miami (OH), Lamar, and Georgia fared worse in that regard. They were also 4-6 against the spread at home, which is notable given the contest is at their place.

In recent years, Radford has developed a reputation of playing slow, a trend that started before Nichols took over as head coach. I'm not sure what it is about Virginia schools, but many of them play at a very methodical pace (guess it's indirectly the "UVA" effect). Radford finished last year 320th in possessions per game, aiming to bridge some talent disparities in year 1 by limiting how many possessions the opposition gets to turn games into ugly slugfests.

As you can see above, Radford was pretty poor in a number of categories. That was partly a product of the roster Nichols inherited, so it remains to be seen whether that will carry over to this year. Somewhat like us this year, Radford was a team that had better depth up front. As a result, their attack was more geared towards the frontcourt - which led to disadvantages in perimeter scoring, turnovers, free throw shooting, and ball movement. I was a bit surprised to see they also underwhelmed in the rebounding and rim protection departments, but their bigs overall lacked size so I guess it makes some sense with context - their tallest player was 6'9".

As was to be expected, Nichols turned over the roster a bit this offseason. It's not a secret that basketball has become a guard's game, so it made sense that he spent time looking to add more perimeter-oriented players to the roster. The good news for him is that it's not a completely new roster, as Radford's lone double figure scorer from last season Josiah Jeffers returned for his extra COVID year in the backcourt. Jeffers is a respectable offensive player - he largely does his scoring damage by getting to the hoop but can hit the occasional three to keep defenses honest and does a decent job as the primary facilitator on the team. His best asset as a player though is being a pest on the defensive end. Jeffers ranked 78th nationally in steals per game last season, so hopefully we can carry our recent performances taking care of the ball over to this game. Jeffers did not face us last year as he suffered an injury in the game before against James Madison. The injury ended up sidelining him for their following game against another A10 foe in Davidson. The only other returning backcourt player is sophomore Derrick Jones Jr., who saw action in roughly a third in Radford's games last year. Jones struggled when he was in the game last year but Nichols is hoping for a sophomore jump when he's healthy. Jones is out 6-8 weeks with a wrist injury (Thank God again that Ricky is okay) and will miss Sunday's contest.

Nichols did a fantastic job in the transfer portal this past offseason bringing in some players with experience playing at the power conference level, the most notable being Villanova transfer Bryan Antoine, a former 5-star prospect out of HS who has struggled to stay healthy over his career having dealt with both knee and shoulder injuries. It was expected that he was going to drop down a level when he transferred, but I personally thought he could have landed at a school at a slightly higher level than the Big South as he was a pretty good player for the Wildcats when he could take the court - Nichols got a real steal if Antoine can stay healthy. So far at Radford, he has been their best free throw shooter but has struggled with shooting efficiency on the team.

Also coming in from the ACC level is Onyebuchi Ezeakudo, an Indiana native who formerly walked on at Pittsburgh. Normally most walk-ons at the P6 level hardly play, but Ezeakudo was an exception as the Panthers were hurting in the backcourt with players out due to injury/suspension. While not a pure PG, he showed the ability to knock down threes at a reasonably high rate while adding respectable on-ball defense. He will likely see some significant minutes off the bench.

DaQuan Smith comes to Radford from Murray State, where he averaged roughly 5 ppg over four seasons, including a number of starts in his second year before playing more of a backup role for the remainder of his tenure. Like most players that come through that program, Smith is a relatively good shooter who can move the ball on offense but at times leaves something to be desired defensively. On the year, he currently leads Radford in scoring at nearly 12 ppg.

The final guard in the rotation, Kenyon Giles, is a true freshman. I would not be surprised if Giles made the all-rookie team at the end of the year as he has played well for a freshman. He has a team-high 12 steals on the year, shoots 87% from the FT line, and is converting roughly 39% of his 3-PT attempts on the year. He put up 20 points against Notre Dame in his second ever collegiate game, a contest which Radford nearly won.

Up front, Radford also returns only one player who was in the rotation last year. Shaquan Jules (a Big South all-academic team member last season) actually paced the team in rebounding last year while converting his attempts near the rim at a high rate. On a roster full of bigs last year, Jules primarily came off the bench but should see as many minutes as he can handle now. Like many bigs, he is a poor free throw shooter so sending him to the line should the game remain close late isn't a bad idea.

Newcomers down low include JUCO transfer Justin Archer, Florida Atlantic transfer Madiaw Niang, Richmond transfer/former GW target Souleymane Koureissi, and Japanese freshman Ibu Yamazaki. Archer and Niang are both additional reliable scorers in the post who also provide above-average rebounding. Like Jules, they don't really shoot beyond 10-15 feet from the hoop. Koureissi was often a deeper option for the Spiders and has more or less remained in a similar role at Radford. He has struggled at times shooting (which is expected given is inconsistent playing time) but isn't afraid to let it fly from distance on occasion despite standing at 6'10". Yamazaki is more like a true wing than a post scorer. So far, roughly half of his attempts have been from 3 but has struggled thus far to find his shot consistently. His 80% FT shooting suggests positive regression to his stats in the future. At the very least, his arrival gives Radford more media attention from Japan. We all know how Yuta helped give additional attention to GW in that regard.

This game has the makings of a trap game. A Sunday afternoon contest on the road against a mediocre opponent that has more talent than an initial glance at the roster would suggest. Radford is shooting nearly 37% from 3 on the year. I think we have shown some considerable improvement defensively but we are still prone to being hurt from 3 now that we no longer run players off the line. As i mentioned in the UCSD preview, the fact that we are playing this game on the road speaks to how terrible JC's scheduling was last season. This will hopefully be the first and last time we ever play Radford on the road as we have practically nothing to gain and everything to lose. Home-and-homes should be saved for decent mid-majors and any high-majors. Radford does not fall under either category and I continue to be baffled by why JC thought this was a good idea outside of doing a favor for a friend. It goes without saying, but how well we play defensively will determine the outcome of the game.

Projected Score: GW 72, Radford 71. 54% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 31.6% chance to extend our win streak to 3 games. ESPN's number feels closer to the truth but if we play with the same energy we did on Wednesday we can definitely win this one. The line has been all over the place in this one. We started out as the underdog, but now the line is closer to even. In some places, I even see GW as a narrow 1 point favorite.
 

What the line show is that playing on the road vs a team you're not that far ahead of in KenPom makes you a slight underdog


I'm still surprised that was the case for South Carolina in our building even though we waxed the the floor with them since they came into that game closer to 100 spots ahead of us at the time.

Lets not get waxed ourselves and beat these guys again.  6-2 is in sight

Last edited by The Dude (12/04/2022 10:06 am)

Same Starting 5
Adams
Bishop
Edwards
Lindo
Dean

Unravelling early  Interior defense is horrid.

Last edited by Long Suffering Fan (12/04/2022 2:14 pm)

Everyone thinks they're steph curry .... arghhhhhh

 

Jack it up from anywhere day. Not passing ball. Not rebounding. Ugh!

Radford getting some lucky bounces on the rim but we once again play down to our opponent.  At some point we have to play like we're the better team if we want to do well in the OOC.