There are missed opportunities and then there are blown opportunities.  Let's say GW plays great this Saturday but still falls to a better Dayton team, that's a missed opportunity.  Make no mistake about the fact that what we witnessed on Tuesday in Richmond was a blown opportunity.  Losing a 13 point lead with under 9 minutes left. Outscored 16-4 over the final 4 minutes.  All to a team with less talent and less depth.  

I really don't want to harp on the OOC schedule but to the naysayers who feel that this level of preparation had nothing to do with what took place in Richmond, I think you're kidding yourselves.  Protecting a late lead against the likes of Army, VMI or Lafayette is a far different experience than playing against hungrier and more capable opposition.  The only comparable experiences this team has had were a win over Illinois State and a loss to AU.  (Am not putting Old Dominion in this category because GW has that much a better team than the Monarchs.)  It is still relatively inexperienced at even attempting to close out tight games, let alone actually winning them.  This Richmond team will surprise the hell out of me if they can get to 7 conference wins this season, and that includes the one they now already have.

As to what went wrong...

a) A continued tendency to play carelessly during the first halves of games.  This Spider team does not turn teams over yet it's hard not to when GW's passes are being thrown right at Richmond players.

b) A second half over-reliance on one player that was far from sustainable.    Sure, Gerald is a streak shooter who was on fire from 3 in the second half.  As great as his shooting was, it's hard to win this way.  Either defenses will crack down or the shooter may just naturally cool off.  Gerald was also 0-2 on second half layups with one of those being completely uncontested (not that Gerald deserves any meaningful blame).

c) I used to play pickup ball with a guy where everyone not on his team would hope that he'd make his first shot.  If he did, he was liable to miss his next 8 or so.  If he didn't, he was prone to shoot much less.  This brings me to Jun's three point shooting where he made his first and then proceeded to miss his next 4.  This is a genuine concern because it's clear that he must improve his outside shooting in order to be considered a legitimate NBA prospect and yet the fact that this has not yet happened is hurting this team.  Meanwhile, Jun should have been working on drives against two bigger defenders who should not have been able to keep up with him and yet we saw far too little of this.  (He did try this late in the game and missed the shot but I can live with this.  It was the right play.)

d) Am sure this was a frustrating game based on how it was called.  The Spiders did not get to the line in the first half, and then Hunt and Neskovic combine to go 15-16 at the line in the second half.  Yes, the game was called very differently in the second half and considering that these 2 Richmond players shot a combined 9-23 from the floor for the game, it was clear that they were both going out of their way to attract foul calls.  Nevertheless, this is often life in the A10 and the answer by GW can't be to keep putting them at the line, even if a few of the calls were questionable to say the least.

e) Take away Drumgoole and GW shot 10-38 from the floor (26%) and 3-19 from 3 (under 16%).  For the game, nearly 60% of their FG attempts (including Gerald) came from 3.  Perhaps if Richmond was some form of defensive juggernaut could I better comprehend this, but they are a pedestrian team at best this season.  Where were the attempts down low?  (Castro, 2-2 from the floor in 29 minutes.)  

f) My last point is one that's becoming all too apparent this season.  Aside from shooting the ball very well in GW's two prior losses, what on earth is happening with Jacoi this year?  Lingering injury?  Pressing (as in putting too much pressure on himself) too hard?  He has sometime made up for poor shooting in other ways but on Tuesday, he wasn't even looking to be an assertive point guard despite playing 29 minutes.  He is now under 20% from 3 for the season, 34.3% from the floor overall, and now has 39 assists (3 per game) and 30 turnovers (2.3 per game) on the season.  Am starting to believe that perhaps he more than any other player needs to snap out of this funk if GW is going to have a realistic chance at a successful season.

I really do hate to make too much out of a single game but like I said, this past Tuesday was a blown opportunity.  I think every one of us can handle losses to superior teams (worth inserting here that we did beat Dayton the last time they visited, and have done remarkably well at home against the Flyers through the years...though I am not expecting a win), but the winnable ones that get away are so frustrating for a program that's nearing a decade of having last experienced genuine success.
 

Last edited by Gwmayhem (1/02/2025 11:13 am)

As I mentioned, the two comparable experiences this team has had to the Richmond game were the games against Illinois State and AU.  Those were games where the games were decided late and the caliber of opponent was not demonstrably better or worse than GW.  (Please don't suggest that GW is right now demonstrably better than AU, not after three consecutive losses to them.)  In other words, there was no taking for granted that GW would break open a close game and win going away, as was the case with so many of the OOC opponents.  

I don't think that anyone would point to Illinois State and AU and think "wow, they're really loading up on tough games."  K State is not in this category because they are clearly better.    The mistake that people make is to think that Illinois State and AU are just like all of the other OC opponents.  They are not at all.

And that's the point...in the OOC, this team does not give itself nearly enough chances to close out tight games against decent opponents, not Top 25 teams and not even Top 100 teams, and therefore lacks the experience and knowhow to consistently do so.  The OOC schedule lulls GW into thinking that a 13 point second half lead at Richmond is just like a comparable lead against Mercyhurst or Louisiana or Lafayette or Army only it's not like that at all.  I'm not suggesting we have great talent but what we have is more favorable than what Richmond has (obviously an opinion but one I feel strongly about...let's see how Richmond fares in the conference this season).  What makes Richmond different than most of our OOC opponents is that they are extremely well coached and that they are going to relentlessly play hard.  When GW breaks open a double digit lead against a "300-type KenPom team", the opponent will usually not put up too much of a fight, largely because they lack the firepower to do so.  

13 OOC games and we lost 1 to a clearly better team, went 1-1 against the caliber of competition I am lobbying for, struggled mightily but won against NC A&T, and went 9-0 against the rest (winning by at least 8 points in each of these).  No, nobody should suggest that the Richmond loss was due to the schedule, as if to suggest a straightforward cause and effect.  However, what is being overlooked is that the OOC schedule does GW no favors with respect to learning how to close out tight games against more than capable opponents.  We don't need to schedule two top 25 teams to get blown out by.  We do need two more 100-150 teams where our matchups could realistically go either way. That's the experience this team needed.

GWRising wrote:

Here we go again ... the OOC schedule is why we underperform. No, why we play poorly is because we play poorly in far too many long stretches principally due to weak guard play, inconsistent outside shooting, inability to get stops in the halfcourt, and our inability to generally score when things get tight. Playing tougher OOC teams will only exacerbate these issues not correct them. I'll ask again, like last year, were we unprepared when we got the 13 point lead or only when we gave it up? This is largely becoming a relative talent issue more than anything.

That said, I am as big a homer as anyone but I think we have to take off the rose colored glasses here, see the flaws and stop overrating our talent. (The only argument that I see for a tougher OOC is that it would expose these flaws sooner but there is likely not much CC or anyone can do about them right now - losing Garrett was a huge blow but even with Garrett we are probably a mid pack A-10 team). I am not sure that we are better than Richmond. So I wouldn't call this a blown opportunity other than the fact we had a 13 point lead in the 2nd half. We play that game 10 times on the road maybe we win 4 or 5. That was probably one of the 4 or 5 we should have won.

I've learned long ago that a tougher schedule doesn't make a bad team a good one. Our players either need to improve or we need to find other players - at least if you want to compete for NIT and NCAA berths. Right now our guard play is probably at a LM level. Somebody needs to step up if we want to not be in the play-in games in the A-10 tournament in March.

You mentioned our guard play as LM level. Obviously the back court has been disappointing. Who in our backcourt do you think has the potential to be an A10 or even HM level player. If any

Even as someone who isn't particularly fond of the OOC schedule, I agree with what GWRising says. During the weak noncon games it was shown that this team experiences long droughts offensively. The defense has certainly improved, but the offense has looked rough. In close games, the offense gets stagnant and guys get uptight.

A few things are apparent on offense:

1) We don't have guards that are capable of putting pressure on the rim offensively. Trey Moss is the most effective, but he doesn't do it enough and takes too many shots from deep. When Gerald and Jacoi do get to the hoop (again inconsistent), they aren't effective with regards to finishing. Trey Autry and CJ don't get to the rim particularly often either. Garrett has been missed and would help with spacing but he doesn't fix the penetration problem. JB is missed dearly on this front. CBB is all about guard play and GW's is mediocre at best.

2) Jun's effectiveness has been capped by #1. The guards aren't great at driving and they aren't consistent enough as shooters either. Thus, the opposition is more than happy to crowd the paint and turn Jun into a passer. DBJ is always creating shots (generally at the top of the key) and rarely has shots created for him. CC does not recruit players capable of posting up. Who was the last big at GW who could do that?

3) Rafael and Sean are not involved as scorers whatsoever. Castro only gets shots when he rebounds missed shots from other players. The times we try to lob it to him none of the guards are able to execute passes at all. Hansen has been great as a passer (plays are best when he's orchestrating them) but is scared to shoot or is told not to. On paper, the frontcourt looks better from last year but the play designs look like we are operating with last year's personnel.

4) In general, the sophomore core of Jacoi, Trey Autry, and DBJ haven't particularly grown from last year (at least so far).
 

Good analysis by DMVPiranha. I would add, though, that I think our biggest problem is that we have no consistently good shooters. Just about all of our guards have had good nights in which they have put up good numbers, but none have been consistent. Rather than have players that score 25 points one night and 2-4 points the next three games, we need a couple guys that can consistently score 10-12 points a night. That is what was so great about Bishop - he always seemed to score around 20 points in every game. Also, regarding DBJ and Castro, it seems that coaches have decided the way to beat us is to pack the paint, double and triple team DBJ, and make us shoot from outside. Sure, one of our guards might get hot, like Drumgoole did against Richmond, but chances are that the poor shooting of everyone else will offset the one hot shooter. We have been able to win games against weaker teams anyway, but this strategy will be very effective from better teams (as we have already seen). In order to be competitive in the A10 this year, I think we are going to have to either find more consistent shooters or come up with new ways to free up DBJ and Castro.

Ralphie wrote:

Nothing short of a total start-to-finish blowout of Dayton on Saturday will wash away the rancid dregs of last night's defeat to the A-10's second worst team after leading by 13 with under 10 minutes to play.   There can be no positive team takeaways from last night's debacle.  Drumgoole's unbelievable second half 3-pt shooting was a strictly individual career anomaly never to be replicated.

. 
Well, thank you gents for washing away those rancid dregs.   Can't help but think the very audacity of mentioning a blowout of Dayton was somehow good karma.   Nothing but positives to take away from this one !

Last edited by Ralphie (1/04/2025 11:39 pm)