Dayton Flyers
Date: Saturday January 4th, 2025
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: USA Network (breaks a streak of 14 consecutive games on ESPN+ to start the season)
Ranks: 32nd (KenPom), 47th (Bart Torvik), 40th (Haslametrics), 41st (EvanMiya)
2023-24 Record: 25-8, 14-4 (3rd in A10)
2024-25 Projected Record: 24-7, 14-4 (1st in A10)

Head-to-Head: 19-23, but the Flyers have won seven of the past eight matchups. So yes, somehow there was a time when GW was winning the head-to-head series against Dayton. The best news is that tomorrow's game will be in DC and not UD Arena, which has been a house of horrors for GW. Since 2000, the Buff and Blue have won at Dayton just once, and it took a half court buzzer beater to do it. I can post the play but I think we can all replay the moment in our head as it's truly one of the most iconic moments in GW basketball history.

In last year's contest, GW stayed competitive for about ten minutes or so before the Flyers ran away with it. The trio of Holmes, Santos, and Brea nearly outscored GW by themselves as Dayton nailed 12 threes and finished with 18 assists for the game. The Revs meanwhile shot just 32% from the field and 17% from 3 with just eight total assists. Jun led the way with 13 points and 8 rebounds, while JB pitched in 10. Garrett/Max/JB went 7/33 from the field which sums up the rough day for GW. Of course, the Revs led wire to wire in the last home matchup, but they will have to be on their 'A' game to even have a chance. Another slow start will spell trouble. Below are highlights from the last home matchup:




Offensive Efficiency: 22nd (KenPom), 25th (Bart Torvik), 28th (Haslametrics), 32nd (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 64th (KenPom), 91st (Bart Torvik), 78th (Haslametrics), 72nd (EvanMiya)
Pace: 266th (KenPom), 273rd (Bart Torvik), 251st (Haslametrics), 302nd (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 25th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 59th
Rim & 3 Rate: 86% (101st)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.76 TO/G (12th)
Turnovers Per Game: 9.6 TO/G (18th)
Fouls Per Game: 14.8 PF/G (41st)
Assists Per Game: 17 APG (42nd)
Field Goal Percentage: 48.7% (42nd)
Winning Percentage: 78.6% (46th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 55.8% (48th)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 21.8 FTA (80th)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 15.6 FTM (82nd)
Fastbreak Points: 13.1 PPG (83rd)
Scoring Defense: 67.4 PPG (85th)
Scoring Margin: +10.3 PPG (91st)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 9.4 ORPG (278th)
Bench Points Per Game: 18.4 PPG (285th)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 11.1 TO/G (287th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#11 G Malachi Smith (RS Junior; Bronx, NY) - 11.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 5.9 apg, 1.1 spg; 50% FG, 47% 3-PT, 61% FT per 26.8 mpg/14 GP
#0 G Javon Bennett (Junior; Orlando, FL) - 8.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.5 spg; 43% FG, 37% 3-PT, 75% FT per 27.8 mpg/14 GP
#6 G Enoch Cheeks (Senior; Providence, RI) - 13.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.8 spg; 50% FG, 39% 3-PT, 89% FT per 31.8 mpg/13 GP
#2 F Nate Santos (Senior; Geneva, IL) - 13.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.6 apg; 45% FG, 42% 3-PT, 70% FT per 31.9 mpg/14 GP
#23 F Zed Key (Graduate Student; Bay Shore, NY) - 11.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.2 bpg; 64% FG, 80% FT per 23.5 mpg/13 GP

Key Bench Players:
#5 G Posh Alexander (RS Senior; Brooklyn, NY) - 6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.4 spg; 39% FG, 17% 3-PT, 92% FT per 22.2 mpg/13 GP
#29 F Amaël L'Etang (Freshman; Toulouse, France) - 6.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.1 apg; 52% FG, 25% 3-PT, 60% FT per 12.9 mpg/14 GP
#24 F Jacob Conner (Junior; Dayton, OH) - 4.4 ppg, 1.5 rpg; 42% FG, 30% 3-PT, 54% FT per 13.6 mpg/8 GP
#10 G/F Hamad Mousa (Freshman; Doha, Qatar) - 1.8 ppg; 43% FG, 14% 3-PT, 69% FT per 8.8 mpg/13 GP
#13 F Isaac Jack (Junior; Port Alberni, Canada) - 2.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg; 100% FG, 33% FT per 7.5 mpg/10 GP

Key Losses:
DaRon Holmes II (Went Pro; Goodyear, AZ) - 20.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.6 apg, 2.1 bpg; 54% FG, 39% 3-PT, 71% FT per 32.4 mpg/33 GP
Koby Brea (Transferred to Kentucky; Washington Heights, NY) - 11.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.2 apg; 51% FG, 50% 3-PT, 88% FT per 29.1 mpg/33 GP
Kobe Elvis (Transferred to Oklahoma; Brampton, Canada) - 9.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.5 apg; 38% FG, 37% 3-PT, 85% FT per 28.5 mpg/33 GP

Preview:
Which fanbase in the A10 is the worst/most toxic? For me, it's Dayton and it's not particularly close. Unfortunately, there is some evidence to back up their superiority complex compared to other schools in the league. You look at the OOC strength of schedule for teams across the league, and Dayton was the lone school to have a top 100 schedule this year (they were 47th). SLU was the only other school that even made the top 200 in terms of strength of schedule out of conference. Unlike most other schools in the league, Dayton is able to get these opportunities year after year. With the way things are currently, can the A10 even be a multi-bid league every year if Dayton isn't in the at-large conversation by December from now on?

It's not just the difficulty though. Dayton has been winning their share of these games which other schools have not, so it's hard to entirely fault their fanbase for saying that other schools in the league are "not like us" as Kendrick Lamar would put it. This year, Dayton has defeated Northwestern, UConn, and Marquette (the latter two are probably the two best teams in the Big East) and they came close against UNC, Iowa State, and Cincinnati which were all top 20 squads (and the only games Dayton has lost on the year). Long story short - CC and GW have their work cut out for them tomorrow.

Expectations are obviously high in the birthplace of aviation. In the past 25 years, Dayton has won 20+ games in 19 of them, and one of the six seasons they didn't was the shortened COVID year. The Flyers have been nationally ranked in the AP Poll or qualified for the NCAA tournament in 14 of these years. They've finished under .500 in the A10 just four times since 1999. Must be nice. Anyone that coaches there is set up for success with the infrastructure that is in place. It's crazy to me that some of their fans were calling for Anthony Grant's head simply because he hadn't made the big dance. Obviously, there were a lock back in 2019-20 but Grant quieted his naysayers by finally getting over the hump last season. That was really nice to see, especially given the challenges he's had off the court, which includes the tragic loss of his daughter to suicide. In the NCAA tournament, Dayton knocked off Nevada after going down 17 points earlier in the game before falling to Arizona in the second round.

Under Grant, Dayton operates at a slow pace but often generates high quality looks in the half court thanks to high-level passing. Dayton has been top 100 in assist percentage every year under Grant, which has resulted in top 60 marks in both effective field goal percentage and two point field goal percentage in each of those seasons. During the banner 2019-20 year, the Flyers were #1 nationally in both field goal percentage categories. Defensively, the formula is simple: contest everything and prevent the opposition from getting good looks inside. While Dayton has had little trouble knocking down shots offensively, opponents have had a hard time getting things going against them, as the Flyers have also ranked top 100 in defensive effective field goal percentage the last six years. They don't look to force turnovers but they are very disciplined. UD doesn't commit fouls, keeping teams off the line and forcing them to spend full shot clocks trying to find a good shot.

Many people (myself included) thought this season would be a slight step back with the loss of DaRon Holmes II, who was A10 co-player of the year with Richmond's Jordan King. Holmes led the Flyers in both scoring and rebounding in all six of their games in March, averaging 22.2 ppg and 10.8 rpg during the most important month of the year. Holmes left for the NBA after the season but sadly tore his achilles back in July which will likely sideline him the entire year. Hope he's able to get back to 100% because I think he'll have a great career at the next level.

The Flyers also lost both Koby Brea and Kobe Elvis who thrived along the perimeter with all the attention Holmes was commanding. Brea was the best shooter in the country last year, canning a ridiculous 50% of his 201 attempts from behind the arc. He hasn't cooled off at Kentucky, as he's currently 49% for the year. Elvis led the Flyers in assists and was another threat from deep (although he wasn't as efficient as he probably should have been inside the arc). He is now quarterbacking an undefeated Oklahoma squad, something that I didn't think I'd be saying back in November.

Most teams would have crumbled after losing players of that caliber, but Dayton reloaded like they always do. In the offseason, Grant notably landed the services of both Zed Key and Posh Alexander, two players with proven production at the high-major level. Key actually had a GW offer an eternity ago before suiting up for Ohio State the past four seasons. He's not going to stretch the floor like Holmes (and isn't a true rim protector, although he does contest well), but Key is very effective posting up down low and he lives on the glass. His production tailed off a bit last season but it was a trying year in general for the Buckeyes. Grant has been able to resurrect Key somewhat this year, and Key is shooting a career best 80% from the free throw line. GW hasn't faced someone of his caliber, so it will be interesting to see whether CC brings double teams his way (or just do whatever La Salle did as key had his worst game of the season the other day).

Alexander is perhaps the best example of the luxury that Dayton has that other teams in the A10 simply do not. He started 99 games across four seasons for two Big East teams in St. John's and Butler. At Dayton, he's coming off the bench. While he's not particularly known for his offense (although great at the FT line), Alexander does a great job of setting the table for others and simply going after the ball. He's a pest of an on-ball defender, having averaged at least two steals per game in each of his previous four seasons. While he is not going to surpass what Jacob Gilyard did at Richmond, Alexander has an outside chance of making the top 25 career steals list if he can somehow come up with 46 takeaways before the end of the year.

Key and Alexander complement Dayton's returners well. Nate Santos was second in scoring on last year's team. He's a stretch four who will battle on the boards and can find the open man. Santos was able to resurrect his career at Dayton after two forgettable years at Pittsburgh where he struggled to put the ball in the hoop. Consistent playing time helps of course, but he was 16/81 (19.7%) from deep with the Panthers. At Dayton, he's 81/194 (41.8%). Despite that, he entered the transfer portal last offseason only to return to school six days later. Santos has scored in double figures in ten straight games but is just 4/17 from three point range in his last four contests. Hopefully, that continues tomorrow.

Javon Bennett and Enoch Cheeks were up transfers who quietly turned in solid years. Bennett may be a bit undersized, but he is a baller. He burst onto the scene right away as a freshman at Merrimack, ranking second nationally in steals per game. Once again, what a luxury it is for Dayton to start Bennett and then bring in Alexander from off the bench. That allows them to maintain a stout perimeter defense without experiencing any drop off. Bennett is shooting a career best 37% from deep on the year and he can orchestrate the offense if needed.

Cheeks may be the most important player for the Flyers. He played the glue guy role very well last season after coming over from Robert Morris, knocking down an open shot, rebounding the ball, playing solid defense, and moving the ball effectively. This season, he's been anything but cheeks - nailing a career best 39% from 3, 89% from the line, and pulling down a crazy 7.2 rpg. He plays hard with a high motor.

Isaac Jack is also back to resume his backup role up front. The former Buffalo Bull is hyper efficient near the rim - he made 72% of his attempts last season and is 12/12 from the field this year. Jack has had to fight for playing time even more this year (more on that later) but the Canadian is a steady, experienced option for Grant when needed.

Arguably the most important returner was one that did not play much last year. Malachi Smith has been one of the best stories this season as he's worked his way back from multiple injuries the past couple years. Smith underwent ankle reconstruction surgery (on both ankles) following the 2022-23 season, and went down just seven minutes into last season with a torn lateral meniscus in his right knee. The fact that he's playing consistent minutes is already a success but he's looked like his old self this season which has been a major boost for the team. Smith is shooting 47% from deep, is averaging a career high 11.9 ppg, and has always been a fantastic passer (leads A10 in total assists) with quick hands on defense. He's coming off a 20 point, 5 rebound, and 6 assist performance against La Salle. Despite being just 6 feet tall and sharing the backcourt with Bennett (who is just 5'10" himself), Dayton has managed to remain tough defensively along the perimeter.

Marshall transfer Jacob Conner and redshirt freshman Jaiun Simon have earned some minutes from off the bench. It has to have taken Conner some getting used to playing at Grant's more methodical pace after spending two years playing in a run-and-gun system at Marshall. He's a local product from Archbishop Alter HS, which is just five miles south of UD's campus. Conner missed time midway through OOC play with an ankle injury (six games), but should be fine for tomorrow. Simon meanwhile set a new career high with five points in limited time against the Explorers the other day. He's shown to rebound the ball well in limited time, something that Conner is able to do at a high level as well.

Finally, a couple of true international freshmen in Amaël L'Etang (France) and Hamad Mousa (Qatar) only add to Dayton's embarrassment of riches. L'Etang averaged a double-double - 13.8 ppg and 10 rpg - playing for Cholet Basket in France prior to Dayton. He's super skilled for his height at 7'1". Outside of spotty three point shooting, he's done pretty much everything else well. In Tuesday's game, he had 12 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 blocks. GW will have their hands full trying to guard him. Mousa was actually the player to get more buzz when he committed to Dayton, widely considered to be the best freshman coming into the A10 with NBA upside. He hasn't played much lately but still has plenty of time to reach his full potential.

This is a tough game - there's no doubt about it. However, seeing us drop this at home by double digits would be a disappointment (especially on national TV). The goal for tomorrow is to at least be competitive even if it results in a loss. Castro and Hansen have to be bigger factors offensively and in general more creativity on offense is needed in order to have a fighting chance.

Projected Score: Dayton 78, GW 69. 21% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 23% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs a 25.9% chance at a W.
 

Disappointing that this game is over winter break so there won't be any students in attendance. Dayton always travels well so I'm sure there will be lots of Flyers fans in attendance

Buchanan out with an ankle.  Take Dayton

Crowd 70-30 Dayton.  Good for ticket sales bad for the home team

Wow. Guess they took the Richmond loss personally. Nice start.

Looking good but why do I feel we are going to blow the lead?

So great to see us attacking the rim. Of course, the better outside shooting is making that easier.

10 assists to 3 turnovers is great to see. So is 44% from three.

15-5 Dayton start to 2nd 1/2. 

YEAH BABY!!!!