Well, so far this year in the A10 schedule we have won both games we should have lost and lost both games we should have won. So I guess that means a win tomorrow?

I hope to see a lot of GW fans in attendance. I will be there...

Last edited by DC Native (Today 10:51 am)

George Mason Patriots
Date: Saturday January 18th, 2025
Time: 12:30 PM ET
Venue: EagleBank Arena (Fairfax, VA)
TV: USA Network
Ranks: 77th (KenPom), 67th (Bart Torvik), 73rd (Haslametrics), 64th (EvanMiya)
2023-24 Record: 20-12, 9-9 (T-7th in A10)
2024-25 Projected Record: 21-10, 12-6 (2nd in A10)

Head-to-Head: 24-11. The Patriots and Revs have split the home/away series the past three years. Last year, GW took the Foggy Bottom matchup 75-62 on MLK day in what would be the last complete performance by the squad before the long losing streak. It was a wire-to-wire victory for the Revs, who were up double digits for a good part of the first half. Mason threatened a couple of times after halftime, but never got the game closer than two possessions. The Buff and Blue shot 38% from deep and 88% from the line compared to 22% from 3 for the Patriots. GW notably won the rebound battle 40-35, and that will be a key for tomorrow. Credit GMU for forcing GW to turn it over 17 times though. Jun led the way with 21 points and 9 rebounds (it helped that he went 2-2 from deep), JB had 20 points and 6 rebounds, and Max had 10 points and 6 rebounds as well (although it came on 11 shots).

The return game that came in the midst of the losing streak did not go nearly as well. George Mason doubled up GW in the first half 54-27, making the second half not particularly important. The Revs shot under 30% from 3 and got to the line just 10 times. Mason won the rebound battle this time around 42-30, and shot 39% from distance (and 57% from the field overall - there wasn't much defensive resistance from GW in the game). The only moral victory is that the team only turned it over seven times. Antoine Smith was the leading scorer with 13 points/6 rebounds off the bench (the fact that he was the leading scorer says a lot about the game), Max pitched in with 12 points/5 rebounds, and JB finished with 10 on 15 shot attempts.

Offensive Efficiency: 172nd (KenPom), 177th (Bart Torvik), 140th (Haslametrics), 127th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 27th (KenPom), 18th (Bart Torvik), 33rd (Haslametrics), 30th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 315th (KenPom), 293rd (Bart Torvik), 332nd (Haslametrics), 283rd (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 138th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 99th
Rim & 3 Rate: 84% (143rd)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 36.2% (4th)
Scoring Defense: 61.9 PPG (13th)
Rebound Margin: +7.8 RPG (22nd)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 28.1 DRPG (23rd)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 23.5 FTA (37th)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 16.7 FTM (47th)
Scoring Margin: +11.4 PPG (50th)
Rebounds Per Game: 38.8 RPG (59th)
Winning Percentage: 72.2% (60th)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 30.7% (61st)
Field Goal Percentage: 47% (81st)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 0.97 AST/TO (287th)
Fastbreak Points: 7.8 PPG (293rd)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 20.1 3PA (296th)
Turnover Margin: -1.9 TO (297th)
Turnovers Per Game: 13.7 TO/G (302nd)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#4 G Brayden O'Connor (Junior; Ottawa, Canada) - 10.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1 spg; 46% FG, 41% 3-PT, 73% FT per 28.3 mpg/18 GP
#13 G Darius Maddox (Senior; Bowie, MD) - 14.1 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1 spg; 42% FG, 32% 3-PT, 90% FT per 32.1 mpg/17 GP
#2 G Woody Newton (Senior; District Heights, MD) - 7.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg; 39% FG, 33% 3-PT, 83% FT per 22.3 mpg/18 GP
#10 F Zach Anderson (Graduate Student; Apopka, FL) - 5.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1 apg; 39% FG, 40% 3-PT, 69% FT per 21.6 mpg/18 GP
#11 F Jalen Haynes (Senior; Fort Lauderdale, FL) - 12.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg; 61% FG, 56% FT per 22.8 mpg/18 GP

Key Bench Players:
#1 G Jared Billups (Senior; Waldorf, MD) - 5.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.1 spg; 44% FG, 20% 3-PT, 74% FT per 27.2 mpg/16 GP
#0 G KD Johnson (Senior; Atlanta, GA) - 6.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.6 apg; 40% FG, 41% 3-PT, 74% FT per 19.2 mpg/17 GP
#5 F Giovanni Emejuru (Junior; Leicester, United Kingdom) - 8.2 ppg, 5 rpg; 68% FG, 61% FT per 18.7 mpg/18 GP
#23 G Justin Begg (Freshman; Houston, TX) - 2.9 ppg, 1.6 apg; 42% FG, 23% 3-PT, 70% FT per 10.4 mpg/16 GP

Key Losses:
Keyshawn Hall (Transferred to UCF; Cleveland, OH) - 16.6 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.4 apg; 47% FG, 36% 3-PT, 84% FT per 30.6 mpg/29 GP
Amari Kelly (Graduated; Norcross, GA) - 12.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.3 bpg; 55% FG, 42% 3-PT, 76% FT per 28.5 mpg/31 GP
Baraka Okojie (Transferred to Memphis; Brampton, Canada) - 8.1 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.4 spg; 47% FG, 26% 3-PT, 73% FT per 24.5 mpg/32 GP
Ronald Polite III (Transferred to UNC Greensboro; Temple Hills, MD) - 7.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.7 apg; 41% FG, 30% 3-PT, 85% FT per 25 mpg/30 GP

Preview:
Kim English who? After just two seasons at Fairfax, the former Mizzou guard bolted to Providence. Apparently a fifth place finish in the A10 was enough for English to get a Big East level job. It's not too surprising to see that Providence went 0-3 against A10 teams during OOC play this year and that they are currently 91st on KenPom honestly. There's no doubting English's ability to recruit and relate to guys entering college, but I always thought he was so-so as an in-game coach at George Mason. Also, given how much we've benefitted from Slim Castro's presence down low I can't help but feel that English wasn't able to get the best out of him at Providence last year (not that I'm not complaining about that of course).

English's departure opened the door for proud alum Tony Skinn to return to Fairfax. Prior to returning to GMU, Skinn spent eight years as an assistant at Louisiana Tech, Seton Hall, Ohio State, and Maryland. Expectations are generally modest for first year coaches, but Skinn certainly overperformed in year #1, guiding Mason to a 20 win season and 9-9 finish in the A10. While the Patriots did not play the toughest OOC schedule in 2023-24, they took care of business - going 11-2 with their only losses coming to Tennessee and Charlotte, the latter a result of a tough shooting night where they only mustered 49 points. Conference play was a little up and down. GMU would win a couple games in a row, then follow that up with a few game losing streak. That pattern would continue the rest of the year, but it was nevertheless a great first year for a new coach. GMU finished 97th in KenPom in Skinn's first year, which was better than English could do in his two years. Dare I say they upgraded? The good news for Patriot fans is it appears that Skinn may be more willing to stay long-term given his ties to the school.

This past offseason was not a particularly fun one for the Mason fanbase/program. Shortly after the season, the school revealed a new redesigned logo, which may be the worst of the recent rebrands that I've seen and most GMU alums would likely agree. It's like the designer was trying hard to strip out any personality and identity of the previous logo. Universities need to stop with the block letter logos. It's fine as a secondary logo, but this new Mason design makes it seem like they're a bank or something. At least do something with the letters. I can't even say I like the font/way they infused the colors. I don't think a person will confuse them with General Motors, but if somebody just searches "GM" on Google not knowing what the logo represents, they aren't going to be finding George Mason on the first page. Some SEO may be needed.

Last August, GMU's MBB team had planned to take a trip to the Bahamas. A day before the team was supposed to leave, the school found out that the bookings had not yet been made. Eugene Toriko LLC, headquartered in the Atlanta area, was responsible for handling the flights and lodging. Mason had paid $160k for the trip to The VII Group, a sports marketing firm that had subcontracted with Eugene Toriko. It was later found that Maurice Smith, the CEO of Eugene Toriko, allegedly used the money to refund previous clients and handle other personal expenses (which included trips to Mexico and Panama). Smith was arrested in December, and of course the Post was all over the story. He could face up to 20 years in prison for wire fraud. I feel bad for any of the fans that had planned a trip to the Bahamas in advance. Just wild stuff - sounds a lot like the Fyre Festival in 2017. The university's main twitter account was also hacked in mid-September by some Crypto folks.

The good news is the mess of last offseason did not carry onto the court for the most part. The Patriots went 9-4 OOC this season. The Duke loss was understandable, as was the Marquette one that was fairly close for most of the game. Back to back losses to Central Michigan and East Carolina were a bit head scratching. CMU played well the first month of the year but it was GMU's version of the AU game, as the Chippewas won on a last second three. ECU outmuscled Mason, although the Patriots looked like the better team. GW's ability to bang with the Patriots may very well be a key heading into tomorrow. In conference play, Mason is 4-1, with the lone loss coming on a last second buzzer beater against Rhody.

Under English, the Patriots often played at a slowish pace and since Skinn took over they have slowed things down further. Last year, GMU was 344th in pace, and this year they are also sub-300. Offensively, they will crash the glass looking for second shot opportunities and attack the basket looking to draw fouls and head to the free throw line. The Patriots are currently eighth nationally in free throw rate but struggle mightily when it comes to holding onto the ball (341st in offensive turnover percentage). From a GW context, rebounding is a concern, given the Revs conceded 16 offensive boards to Duquesne on Wednesday. The turnovers on the other hand should be beneficial to a GW team that currently leads the A10 in steals per game. The Patriots are currently 14th in conference play in free throw shooting as well, but we all saw what happened on Wednesday with Duquesne.

Defensively, GW will find it highly challenging to finish near the hoop, so the threes better start falling. In the Skinn era, Mason has been elite in two point percentage defense, ranking 12th and 3rd nationally (per KenPom). Like Duquesne, teams have been able to rain threes on them (A10 foes are 40% from 3 against them so far), and GMU is more than happy to allow teams to get shots off from distance. Rafael has been a major source of offense recently with his offensive rebounding, but the Patriots have been stiff in terms of allowing second chance opportunities so far. This could very well be a defensive contest, as GW and GMU sport the two best defensive efficiencies in the A10.

All five of Mason's starters began their careers at other schools. Like GW, Mason's best player came over from Virginia Tech. When GMU is need of a bucket, they will look to Darius Maddox. Maddox is a career 40% three point shooter, although he's slumping so far this season (just 32%). It was apparent in the GW games last year that he's also very comfortable pulling up in the midrange, which is justified when you can shoot 90% from the line (best mark in the A10, 25th nationally). Maddox has hit the 20 point mark four times this season, including on Wednesday against Dayton. Expect him to attempt 10+ shots from the field, something he has done in 13 of 17 games this year.

Fellow local product Woody Newton is also back after playing more of a reserve role last year. Newton, who began his career at Syracuse (before transferring to Oklahoma State), does not provide quite the same firepower as Maddox but has impressive ball-handling skills for a guy at 6'9". He's a career best 83% from the FT line this year and will assist on the boards. Skinn is hoping to get more consistent production from him moving forward. Against Dayton/UMass, he went a combined 2/8 from the field. In the previous two contests against Rhody/Richmond he made 10 of his 18 attempts. Which Newton will show up tomorrow?

UMass Lowell transfer Brayden O'Connor completes the starting backcourt. From what I've watched of Mason, I've been very impressed with O'Connor. The Canadian is very shifty, and can get his shot off from anywhere. He creates shots for others in the starting unit and is shooting a career best 41% from distance. O'Connor has also turned it on a bit in conference play, averaging 13.2 ppg so far compared to 9.2 ppg during the OOC slate.

Up front, Mason will trot out Florida natives Zach Anderson and Jalen Haynes, two players with complementary skillsets. Anderson, who played four years at Florida Gulf Coast, is a stretch forward who has taken over 75% of his attempts from downtown on the year and converted on nearly 40%. In fact, he's shooting better from three than he is on two point attempts. He hasn't truly exploded yet in conference play but he's capable of lighting it up - he knocked down seven threes against Coppin State earlier in the year.

Haynes meanwhile is the interior bruiser inside at 6'8", 260 pounds. He redshirted last year after coming over from East Tennessee State where he earned third-team all-SoCon honors. Haynes was also previously teammates with Maddox at Virginia Tech back in the 2021-22 season. He's an efficient finisher around the rim and very tough to keep off the glass. Haynes had some monster performances in December (four double-double games) but has been a bit quieter in conference play. Seeing him go up against Rafael will be a matchup to watch.

Two more guards who previously played elsewhere in KD Johnson and Jared Billups will play important roles from off the pine. Johnson spent the last three years at Auburn (he started 31 games his sophomore year) after beginning his career at Georgia. Just like Posh Alexander at Dayton, he has maintained his key bench role at Mason. He won't take a lot of threes/isn't offensively minded in general, but he can certainly knock down an open shot (11/27 from 3 on the year). Johnson's role as a playmaker allows Skinn to give O'Connor a breather or play him off the ball more when the two share the court. His stats may not jump off the page tomorrow, but Johnson has a certain swagger about him that can help spark the team when needed.

Billups meanwhile arrived in Fairfax last year following two seasons at Siena. He too isn't particularly offensively minded (career 24% three point shooter - he prefers the midrange) but Billups is a great rebounder for his position and he is a very good on-ball defender. He's the kind of utility player that every team could use. Billups was not at Siena at the same time as Giovanni Emejuru, who suited up for the Saints last season following two quiet years at Sam Houston State. While Emejuru played for a lousy team, Carm did grant him the opportunity to showcase more of his skills in the post. He's a great rebounder (especially offensively) and the UK native has converted on 68% of his shot attempts on the year for the Patriots. Pairing him with Haynes would be bad for spacing but few teams would be able to match the physicality that pair brings.

Finally, true freshman Justin Begg will see spot minutes. The Texan was a three-star recruit out of HS per 247Sports who can orchestrate an offense when given the chance. Despite shooting just 23% from deep, he's taken more threes than twos but those are the kinds of things freshmen usually haven't figured out yet. With time, I'm sure that will improve.

This won't be an easy game. At the very least, hopefully GW can keep the game within two possessions or so. Mason isn't great offensively but the same could have be said about Duquesne so it's important that the Revs come out ready to guard or else they'll find themselves conceding 40+ points again before halftime. On defense, GW will need to ensure they can end possessions with a defensive rebound (unless it's a forced turnover). The biggest key will be GW's offense going up against a very elite GMU defense. Having Jun attack downhill doesn't feel like a formula for success, especially against this Patriot squad. Gerald will need to be a lot more efficient and Jun is going to have to make a bigger impact (hopefully Wednesday's game allowed him to shake some rust off). Mason is not super tall down low, but I worry about Sean being able to match the physicality of the Patriots. Maybe this game is also a chance to get Dayan more involved.

Projected Score: Mason 71, Washington 63. 23% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 15% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs a 15.5% chance at a W.