Davidson Wildcats
Date: Saturday February 15th, 2025
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Venue: John M. Belk Arena (Davidson, NC)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 115th (KenPom), 115th (Bart Torvik), 128th (Haslametrics), 121st (EvanMiya)
2023-24 Record: 15-17, 5-13 (T-13th in A10)
2024-25 Projected Record: 19-12, 9-9 (T-6th in A10)

Head-to-Head: 14-15, although GW has won three of the last four meetings. Prior to that, they had lost four in a row in the series. In last year's matchup, the Revs needed an extra period to outlast the Wildcats, 83-79. There's not been too many games in the past few years where I've felt like GW has stolen a game late, but last year's Davidson game certainly felt like that (it helps that it came before the 12 game slide). The Wildcats built a five point lead heading into halftime with a 9-3 run in the last minute and a half. GW began the second frame strong, scoring seven points in the first minute. From that point on, the game went back and forth, with no team leading by more than eight points the rest of the way. Davidson had the ball up 3 with 41 seconds left but coughed it up in the backcourt. Despite that, they were still up 2 with 33 seconds to go but missed the front end of a one-and-one, which summed up their struggles from the line on that day (just 9/19, definitely un-Davidson like). Max would tie it up on a made layup and the Wildcats would give it right back to GW with the chance to win the game in regulation. Unfortunately, the winning lob to Edwards was just a bit off on what was an otherwise great play design from Boisvert. The overtime period was rough for both teams, as each squad made just two shots from the field. Ultimately, the difference came from the line, where GW had more attempts than Davidson in the five minutes. The Revs went 3/6, while the Wildcats were 0/2. GW made 13 threes at a 45% clip in the game (to go with 15 assists), but was just 8/20 from the FT line. Garrett led the team with 23 points, JB had 20 points/7 assists, and Jun finished with 16 points/8 rebounds/5 assists (although a rough 4/12 from the FT line). Max finished just short of a double-double with 9 points/13 rebounds.

In the last matchup at Belk, Davidson also went into the locker room at the half with the lead (by 6 points). At that point, GW had made zero threes in the game while the Wildcats had made six. Heading to the final media timeout, both teams were tied at 60 points apiece. That was when JB took over down the stretch, accounting for 11 of GW's final 15 points (and all their made field goals). A 16/18 performance from the line helped offset the team going just 5/18 from distance. GW finished with just seven assists as well. All five starters finished in double figures, led by JB's 26 points. JB loved facing Davidson, averaging 24 ppg in three career contests against them. BA added 15 points, while Hunter (11 points/9 rebounds) and Ricky (11 points/11 rebounds) held it down in the front court. Max pitched in with 10 points as well. GW's bench for that game was just Noel and Amir which is hilarious. Thankfully, the bench is a bit deeper nowadays.

Offensive Efficiency: 77th (KenPom), 71st (Bart Torvik), 83rd (Haslametrics), 97th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 213th (KenPom), 210th (Bart Torvik), 212th (Haslametrics), 180th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 282nd (KenPom), 283rd (Bart Torvik), 287th (Haslametrics), 283rd (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 109th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 118th
Rim & 3 Rate: 87% (71st)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.68 AST/TO (7th)
Turnovers Per Game: 9.3 TO/G (8th)
Fouls Per Game: 15 PF/G (40th)
Assists Per Game: 15.6 APG (68th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 53.7% (80th)
Field Goal Percentage: 46.5% (91st)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Three Point Percentage Defense: 35% (276th)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 17 FTA (287th)
Steals Per Game: 5.8 SPG (289th)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 10.4 TO/G (309th)
Fastbreak Points: 6.8 PPG (320th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 8.4 ORPG (321st)
Blocks Per Game: 2.1 BPG (329th)
Bench Points Per Game: 13.5 PPG (339th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#4 G Mike Loughnane (Sophomore; Quincy, MA) - 5.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.8 apg; 45% FG, 40% 3-PT, 73% FT per 25 mpg/24 GP
#20 G Zach Laput (Senior; Beacon Falls, CT) - 8.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.9 apg; 47% FG, 29% 3-PT, 65% FT per 25.2 mpg/24 GP
#23 G Connor Kochera (Senior; Arlington Heights, IL) - 13.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.1 spg; 49% FG, 30% 3-PT, 78% FT per 32.2 mpg/24 GP
#2 F Bobby Durkin (Sophomore; Darien, IL) - 14.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.3 spg; 43% FG, 41% 3-PT, 83% FT per 33.3 mpg/24 GP
#1 F Reed Bailey (Junior; Harvard, MA) - 20 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.9 apg; 52% FG, 48% 3-PT, 78% FT per 32.4 mpg/24 GP

Key Bench Players:
#45 G Roberts Blūms (Freshman; Riga, Latvia) - 4.6 ppg, 1.8 rpg; 34% FG, 27% 3-PT, 60% FT per 15.9 mpg/22 GP
#12 G Hunter Adam (RS Sophomore; Christchurch, New Zealand) - 2.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg; 54% FG, 40% 3-PT, 25% FT per 13.5 mpg/24 GP
#0 F Manie Joses (Freshman; London, United Kingdom) - 2.2 ppg, 1.1 rpg; 64% FG, 50% 3-PT, 33% FT per 9.6 mpg/14 GP
#8 F/C Joe Hurlburt (Junior; Enderlin, ND) - 1.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg; 27% FG, 18% 3-PT, 71% FT per 6.6 mpg/21 GP

Key Losses:
David Skogman (Transferred to DePaul; Waukesha, WI) - 13.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg; 56% FG, 47% 3-PT, 68% FT per 24.9 mpg/17 GP
Grant Huffman (Transferred to Vanderbilt; Aurora, OH) - 12.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 5.3 apg, 1.4 spg; 45% FG, 27% 3-PT, 72% FT per 34 mpg/32 GP
Angelo Brizzi (Transferred to Longwood; Warrenton, VA) - 5.6 ppg, 2 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.1 spg; 37% FG, 26% 3-PT, 70% FT per 18.6 mpg/32 GP

Preview:
Davidson enters year 3 under Matt McKillop, who took over for his dad Bob after the elder McKillop guided the Wildcats to the NCAA tournament as a 10 seed. Bob consistently over-performed in the Atlantic 10 given where Davidson's resources are relative to the rest of the league (GW is certainly on the lower end as well). I can't imagine too much has changed in the NIL world unless Steph Curry has been helping out considerably. More than NIL though, the transfer portal has really hurt the Wildcats. This is a program that has always taken great pride in developing their players in-house and keeping guys around for four years, which is really commendable. Unfortunately, this has kind of gone out the window with immediate eligibility, and on top of that Davidson does not have a grad school which puts them behind the eight ball from an experience perspective. They will likely never be the oldest team in the league, although the extra COVID year going away should definitely help them bridge the gap some. Two of their double figure scorers in David Skogman and Grant Huffman were forced to go elsewhere for their final year of eligibility. They ended up at DePaul and Vanderbilt respectively. The duo combined to score over 26 ppg to go with 10 rpg. The Wildcats also lost Highland School product Angelo Brizzi, but he ended up being a real disappointment.

Those are just some of the challenges that Matt has to deal with, but in general Davidson has not been playing at their standard since he took over. This is a program that is known for their offense first. Under Bob, the Wildcats were better on the offensive side of the ball than defense in six of eight years (per KenPom) and the two years they weren't they were only just barely better defensively.  They have always been a team generally flooded with skill with a lesser focus on athleticism and they take very good care of the basketball. Davidson generally opts to get back on defense rather than crash the glass for second chance opportunities, but would often be good about rebounding on the other end (top 50 in defensive rebound % under Bob McKillop in each of his last five years coaching there). Of course, the lack of athleticism meant that Davidson would not look to turn teams over.

So where have things derailed under McKillop's son? In the last two years, the discussion has to start with the shooting. The Wildcats have shot under 32% from deep in each of the last two seasons, which is a problem in an offense that is jumper heavy and not one that gets many second chances at a bucket. They've been middling at best finishing inside and getting to the line. Defensively, they've been fundamentally sound (in fact, last year's team has somewhat similar metrics to this year's GW team). However, they've not really had true rim protection. In Matt's first year, Davidson was dead last nationally in block percentage.

Priority #1 coming into the season was getting the shooting back to the level that's expected at Davidson. To (Matt) McKillop's credit, this year's squad has done just that, as they are top 100 nationally once again in both two-point and three-point percentage. They continue to ignore the offensive glass, but have been one of the best nationally in taking care of the ball (which will be a challenge for a GW team that aims to turn teams over). In general, these two teams are almost polar opposites in terms of their goals on the court, despite being ranked similar on KenPom. The Wildcats won't turn teams over, but they will also keep teams off the glass on defense and not foul a lot. GW on the other hand loves to get to the FT line and does a decent job on the offensive glass. Davidson is once again towards the bottom nationally in block percentage this year so this should be a more favorable matchup for the Revs when it comes to finishing at the rim. This doesn't feel like a game where they'll want to get into a three point contest, but ramping up the tempo just a bit could be something to consider.

The Wildcats went 10-3 OOC, with the highlight easily being an 11 point victory over Providence, who went 0-3 against A10 teams this season. They also played VMI like us, but won a bit more convincingly. Their losses came to #24 Arizona, #3 Gonzaga (who has faded a bit), and Temple. Given these teams all play in respectable conferences, none are outright bad losses, although the game against the Owls was heartbreaking as they lost on a last second layup from former Fordham Ram Elijah Gray. That game was also the last time Sean Logan suited up before going down with a season ending knee injury. Logan was far and away Davidson's best defensive asset and could protect the rim a bit - just a very crushing loss for them. Within the A10, Davidson has been like so many other teams in the league. Decent, but not great. They have never won more than two games in a row or lost more than three. Like GW, a few of the games could have easily gone the other way. They are coming off arguably their best win in the A10 so far, a nine point win at UMass which was GW's worst loss of the conference slate.

Given the way Davidson runs their offense, GW will likely have to prepare a little differently than they would against the average team. The two players that will certainly be at the top of the scouting report are a pair of forwards in Reed Bailey and Bobby Durkin. Both players are perfect fits for the Wildcat system with their versatility and ability to score, rebound, and pass.

Bailey would likely be in player of the year talks in the A10 if Davidson was higher in the standings. He currently leads the conference in scoring at 20 ppg which ranks 12th nationally. The junior from haa-vuhd also leads the team in rebounds (6.3 rpg), assists (3.9 apg), and blocks (post Logan). He doesn't take too many threes (~1 per game, hasn't attempted one in the last three) but can certainly make the open shot. Bailey will get his points, but GW has to remain focused. In 11 conference games, Bailey has topped 20 points in 9 contests. Lately, he's been a bit better with turnovers after giving the ball away at least three times in their first five A10 games. Defensively, GW may want to try going at him. Bailey has a negative defensive performance rating of -0.13 per EvanMiya, despite being very good offensively. That's somewhat understandable given the offensive load on his plate.

Durkin meanwhile is the sharpshooter on the team who GW will have to be aware of all game. Nearly 68% of the Illinois native's shots have come from deep, and he has drilled 76 on the year. He leads the A10 in total three point makes (22nd nationally), three point makes per game (18th nationally), and three point percentage (49th nationally). Durkin has made multiple threes in all but two conference games thus far, although interestingly Davidson has lost all their conference games when he attempts 10+ shots from deep (0-4). It's not quite the Drumgoole conundrum, but interesting nonetheless. Durkin has also finished below 10 points just twice in 2025.

Surrounding those two along the perimeter will be Connor Kochera, Zach Laput, and Mike Loughnane.

Kochera spent his first two years at William & Mary before arriving at Davidson in the Summer of 2022. For his career, he has appeared in 136 D1 contests, giving the Wildcats some much needed experience. Kochera is shooting a career worst 30% from 3, but has made great strides as a mover of the ball, sporting an assist/turnover ratio of 2. He's also the only player aside from Durkin to average over a steal per game. In Davidson's last seven games, Kochera is only 5/28 (18%) from deep and has topped 20 points just once in A10 play (against Fordham). He had done that five times in the OOC slate.

Laput arrives from D2 Bentley, where he was a career 41% three point shooter who made 154 triples in three years while averaging 18.4 ppg to go with 7 rpg. He very much fits what Davidson wants to do, however he has not shot the ball as well as expected in the D1 ranks as the Connecticut native is just 29% on the year.

Loughnane appeared in only 11 contests for the Wildcats in 2023-24 and attempted eight shots total. He has played his way into the starting lineup with his ability to shoot (2/3 of attempts come from 3, converts at a 40% clip) and move the ball. This season, Loughnane has totaled 66 assists to just 22 turnovers (3 to 1 ratio which is fantastic). He's not an event-driven defender, but EvanMiya rates him as one of the better players on that side of the ball on the team (+0.71 DBPR). Davidson has won all three games this season when Loughnane finished in double figures.

Davidson's bench is comprised mostly of international underclassmen. Roberts Blūms was a fairly well-regarded prospect coming over from Latvia. He averaged 20 ppg with the Latvian National Team in the 2023 season, knocking down 39% of threes and 96% of his FT attempts. Blums even has a Wikipedia article, which I can't imagine too many players in the league have. With time, I think he will be good for Davidson but it seems like McKillop has lost faith in him a bit? He's played just 15 minutes total in the last three games, and sat out twice without playing against Dayton and Richmond. Prior to that, Blūms had logged double digit minutes in every game this season. He's only shooting 34% from the field (and 27% from 3) this year, but there's still some upside there. Hopefully he doesn't have a Bolanga game against GW.

Hunter Adam appeared in 32 contests for Davidson last season. The 6-7 New Zealand wing is yet another guy who can knock down the open three when given the opportunity and provides a bit of rebounding (he's given them at least five rebounds in four of their last five games). His improved efficiency from the field (58% overall, 40% from 3) has been offset by worse FT shooting (albeit on limited attempts). Adam has only taken 21 FTs in his career, but it's a bit strange that he went 12/13 from the line last year and is just 2/8 this year.

UK freshman Manie Joses has earned more time in his first year as the season has progressed. He's seen 10+ minutes in their last four games. Prior to that, he had been given that much time just three times all season. Joses is also 5/5 from the field in the last three matches and has notched a steal in five straight. He certainly has upside as he continues to add strength to his frame.

Finally, Colorado transfer Joe Hurlburt gives Davidson some added size down low. The former North Dakota Gatorade Player of the Year has seen his most action in conference play in two tilts against George Mason, when the Wildcats desperately needed someone with height to match up with the bruising Patriot frontcourt. Given that he's just 27% from the field and 18% from 3, I'd be surprised if he ends up being a major factor tomorrow.

Going into this final six game stretch, it would be great if GW could finish 4-2 to get to 20 wins on the season (3-3 would be fine, but I somehow don't expect things to go their way in the conference tournament given the last 10 years - and that includes even winning just one game). I do think the Revs match up well against Davidson, but it will come down to whether GW can make the Wildcats uncomfortable within the flow of their offense tomorrow. A team 20th nationally in steals per game is facing a team that's 8th in turnovers per game. Which side will prevail? Cutting off opposing ball movement obviously didn't happen against VCU, and Davidson certainly has several guys who can make a shot on their team. I am less worried about GW's offense, unless the Revs start to settle for too many threes. It would appear on paper at least that Jun and Rafael should have good games, and this is a better matchup for Sean.

Projected Score: Davidson 73, GW 70. 40% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 35% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs a 36.1% chance at a W.
 

This is kind of a big game today to stay in the middle of the pack in the A10.  St Joe’s will be a tough test next so 6-7 will look a lot better than 5-8 going into that one, especially with the end of season schedule offering some real potential.

I’m assuming Hansen starts on Bailey. Will be interested in how he holds up, thought this feels like one of those games where we can win even if the star goes off as long as we hold everyone else in check.

Drumgoole and Buchanan keeping Davidson in the game.

What a horrible last few minutes to the half. Really disappointing.

Caputo has got to be the worst coach in the country drawing up plays out of timeouts….

Foul shooting is really bad. Ugh!

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  Missed free throws and traveling negate nice defensive effort.  Offense has minimal structure. Sure hope Castro is 100%, looked like he tweaked his ankle.

Why did Caputo leave Trey in? I know of no other coach who would take the chance. Now 4 fouls. Stupid.

I don’t see Trey on the bench anymore????

Man you guys are negative. 

We’re battling really hard in a game that is just a half court grind.  Game has turned into a slugfest, and so far we’re holding our own. Gotta finish strong.