BGF - you are showing your age mentioning “the track” lol.  The walkway with carpet and 90 degree turns

Saint Joseph's Hawks
Date: Wednesday February 19th, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 83rd (KenPom), 77th (Bart Torvik), 76th (Haslametrics), 65th (EvanMiya)
2023-24 Record: 21-14, 9-9 (T-7th in A10)
2024-25 Projected Record: 19-12, 10-8 (T-4th in A10)

Head-to-Head: 31-41, and the Hawks have taken four of the past five matchups. Even on the WBB side, it's felt like the Hawks have always been a thorn in GW's side. Last year's game at Hawk Hill was one of the better played games by the Revs down the stretch of conference play (it was loss #9 of the 12 game losing streak) but they ultimately came up just short, 79-75. The first half was great offensively for both teams, with SJU going into halftime with a slim 1 point edge over GW, 44-43. JB scored the first 12 points/made his first five shots for the Buff & Blue and would finish with 22 first half points. Both teams cooled off a bit after halftime (which is unusual for GW, who is generally a first half under team before getting it going a bit in the second half). The game remained back and forth, with SJU up just 1 with 38 seconds left following back to back made shots from Bishop. A costly turnover with 14 seconds meant that the Revs did not even get a chance at a game-tying shot and the home team drilled 5 of 6 free throws at the end to clinch the W. GW finished the game with 12 made threes at a 44% clip and went 85% from the line. Joe's made 9 threes at a 41% rate. The Hawks finished with twice as many FT attempts which definitely made a difference, but they also won the rebounding battle by 9, limiting GW to just 5 second chance opportunities. It was a clean game overall, with the two teams combining for just 13 turnovers. Only two Revs finished in double figures: JB (32 points) and Jacoi (12 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists). Jun did not play in the game.

In the last game at Smith, GW pulled out a 92-91 home victory. The good guys went into the break with a 6 point halftime lead, 41-35 which included four made threes from BA. It was a good thing that GW did not end up losing the game, otherwise the last 30 seconds in regulation would be a lot more memorable (for the wrong reasons). Hunter Dean knocked down a pair of free throws to extend GW's lead to 5. The Revs struggled mightily to guard penetration all game - especially against Greer. He would blow by BA and get fouled for a three point play. GW would then turn it over on an inbounds play, the second time they did so in the final minute. If that wasn't bad enough, they allowed Joe's to get a second shot at tying the game after forcing an initial miss, which was made to send the contest to overtime. The teams would trade blows, but SJU went up by 4 with 1:41 to go in the extra period on yet another made layup from Greer. BA would miss a layup but incredibly kept the ball from falling out of bounds, getting it to Max who would knock down an incredibly big 3 to keep the game in range. Following another made layup from Greer, four points from JB helped GW regain the lead. The Revs would finally force Greer to take a jumper (which he missed) but frustratingly GW turned the ball over on an inbounds for a third time with eight seconds remaining. On the final play, Joe's missed a 3 on what was a poorly executed final play in which they just needed 2 in order to take the game. BA led all players with 32 points (including 7 made threes), JB had 22 points/6 assists (11/14 from the FT line), Max had a double-double (12 points, 10 rebounds), and Ricky pitched in which 11 points/7 rebounds himself. The two squads combined to make 21 threes, but GW had the efficiency edge by making theirs at a 42% clip and also took twice as many FTs as the Hawks.

Offensive Efficiency: 126th (KenPom), 128th (Bart Torvik), 112th (Haslametrics), 111th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 53rd (KenPom), 52nd (Bart Torvik), 55th (Haslametrics), 42nd (EvanMiya)
Pace: 125th (KenPom), 113th (Bart Torvik), 107th (Haslametrics), 102nd (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 123rd
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 82nd
Rim & 3 Rate: 87% (72nd)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Blocks Per Game: 5.6 BPG (8th)
Fouls Per Game: 14.7 PF/G (30th)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 26.8 3PA (47th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 26.7 DRPG (48th)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 41.3% (55th)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 31.1% (56th)
Three Pointers Made Per Game: 9.1 3PM (59th)
Scoring Defense: 67.8 PPG (66th)
Free Throw Percentage: 74.9% (77th)
Scoring Margin: +6.7 PPG (93rd)
Assists Per Game: 14.9 APG (100th)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Bench Points Per Game: 13.8 PPG (334th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#11 G Xzayvier Brown (Sophomore; Philadelphia, PA) - 16.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.7 apg, 1.5 spg; 40% FG, 33% 3-PT, 89% FT per 35.5 mpg/22 GP
#2 G Erik Reynolds II (Senior; Temple Hills, MD) - 16.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.6 apg; 39% FG, 30% 3-PT, 89% FT per 33.9 mpg/25 GP
#5 F Anthony Finkley (Sophomore; Philadelphia, PA) - 5.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.5 apg; 41% FG, 43% 3-PT, 74% FT per 22.1 mpg/25 GP
#13 F Rasheer Fleming (Junior; Camden, NJ) - 14.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.5 bpg; 55% FG, 43% 3-PT, 70% FT per 30.3 mpg/25 GP
#22 C Justice Ajogbor (Graduate Student; Benin City, Nigeria) - 5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.1 bpg; 58% FG, 49% FT per 20.9 mpg/25 GP

Key Bench Players:
#0 G Derek Simpson (Junior; Mount Laurel, NJ) - 9.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.1 spg; 36% FG, 32% 3-PT, 76% FT per 31.5 mpg/25 GP
#7 G Dasear Haskins (RS Freshman; Willingboro, NJ) - 6.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg; 50% FG, 30% 3-PT, 69% FT per 19.4 mpg/25 GP
#10 F Shawn Simmons II (Sophomore; Philadelphia, PA) - 1.5 ppg, 1.3 rpg; 50% FG, 50% FT per 6.7 mpg/22 GP

Key Losses:
Cameron Brown (Graduated; Laurel, MD) - 11 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.1 spg; 42% FG, 37% 3-PT, 69% FT per 32.3 mpg/35 GP
Lynn Greer III (Transferred to Temple; Philadelphia, PA) - 10.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1 spg; 45% FG, 30% 3-PT, 77% FT per 29.7 mpg/32 GP
Christ Essandoko (Transferred to Providence; Clichy, France) - 8.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.1 bpg; 50% FG, 37% 3-PT, 65% FT per 21.1 mpg/25 GP

Preview:
If the Rothsteinism for Mark Schmidt is "more with less" you might as well flip the phrase for Billy Lange in his tenure at St. Joe's. To be fair, the Rowan University graduate inherited a very tough situation following the end of the Phil Martelli era. The Hawks were snake bitten with injuries the last few years under Martelli, who captained the ship for 24 seasons. Lange has slowly but surely shown improvement in the league, increasing his conference win total every year. By going over .500 this season, that pattern will continue.

The question then becomes will a 10-8 record be enough to keep his job? There isn't really a "window" anymore when it comes to certain teams contending for a conference championship, but this Hawk roster has the perfect blend of talent and experience where there is certainly that feeling that this season has to be special. There's little doubt that the talent is there to contend for a double bye, but is the coaching/offensive philosophy good enough to lift SJU from being just a middling squad?

Joe's was picked 5th in the preseason poll last year and ultimately finished tied for 7th. They began the year 10-3 during OOC play which featured wins against local foes Villanova and Temple, and they played #16 Kentucky very tough before ultimately falling in overtime. However, the general lack of consistency on a night-to-night basis encapsulated the problem with Lange's squads. They could play with the best of the best, but also lay an egg against a team like Texas A&M-Commerce (now known as East Texas A&M) in the same week.

Lange is a major proponent of the three point shot, as his Hawks have ranked roughly around the top 50 every season that he has been the coach (and they were top 10 in his first two years). Unfortunately, the way his Hawks have shot the ball from distance the past five years has not shown that approach to make much sense. St. Joe's has never finished top 100 in three point percentage under Lange. In his first couple years as coach, he did not have the roster to pull this strategy off, yet stubbornly committed to the philosophy. That would infuriate me if I was a fan of the program. Last year's team was his best shooting squad, and they still finished just 105th nationally. Another shortcoming of being so jump shot happy is that they rarely get the free throw attempts needed to overcome scoring droughts when the jumpers don't fall (the 2022-23 season was an anomaly in this regard). SJU generally moves the ball well and looks to play with a bit of pace.

This season has been more of the same. The Hawks were picked third in the preseason poll even though they lost veteran Cameron Brown, Lynn Greer III to crosstown rival Temple (where his dad went to school), and big man Christ Essandoko, who ended up heading to Providence after originally committing to the Friars out of HS when Cooley was still the coach. Despite many talented pieces opting to stay with the program, it just seemed like St. Joe's was going to underperform again. A 9-4 start to the 2024-25 season had plenty of highlights and lowlights. The major highlight was a win over Texas Tech, a team playing at a very high level right now. Joe Lunardi, a Joe's alum, currently has them as a 4 seed in his current bracket projection. The Hawks also defeated both Villanova and Virginia Tech, although neither squad is a juggernaut. Then there were the losses. Central Connecticut is a veteran team that is the NEC favorite, but the Hawks should not have dropped that game in the first week of the season. They fell to Charleston for the second straight year (this time facing a first year coach) and also took an L to Princeton who has completely fallen off a cliff recently. Conference play has been all over the place as well. Generally, the Hawks have been able to recover from a loss (most close ones) with a win. Unfortunately, that puts GW in a tough position facing them coming off a tough one to Mason on Saturday. Lange is also likely coaching for his job in this final stretch of games.

St. Joe's is currently 83rd on KenPom. The last time they finished that highly on the site was the 2015-16 season when they made the NCAA tournament and even knocked off Cincinnati in the round of 64. They have overcome a slight regression in shooting by playing strong defense, easily the best under Lange. The Hawks have athletes with length up and down their lineup which allows them to contest most shots. As a result, they are currently eighth nationally in blocks per game and hold top 50 marks in nearly all defensive field goal percentage metrics. On top of that, they defensive rebound well and keep teams off the line (top 50 in both categories). The concern for GW going into tomorrow will be the ability to run their offense consistently well and put up points, especially if Joe's is feeling it from deep.

The Hawk backcourt of Xzayvier Brown and Erik Reynolds II is as talented a guard tandem as any in the A10. Brown took home the A10 rookie of the year award last year after averaging nearly 13 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals while shooting 40% from 3 and 80% from the line. That award probably would have gone to Jun had GW not sunk to the bottom of the league. This season, Brown has taken on a slightly bigger load. While he's shooting 89% from the FT line (29th nationally), he has seen a slight dip in efficiency from distance at just 33%. He has the ability to create not just his shot, but generate looks for others as well, averaging nearly 5 assists a game (76th nationally) with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8. Brown is a good on-ball defender as well and he's finished in double figures in every game this season. He's 7/18 from 3 (39%) in his last three games but was 0-8 in his previous two against Loyola and Duquesne. Given his ability to do a bit of everything, Lange rarely takes him off the court. Brown is currently 5th in the A10 in minutes per game for the season (45th nationally).

Reynolds meanwhile has experienced a major slump shooting the ball in his senior campaign. He's a career worst 30% from distance and is even shooting under 40% overall from the field. The slump hasn't affected his FT shooting, which is at 89% like Brown. Reynolds can move the ball on offense as well but is generally planted off the ball. Still, a 30% shooter who takes nearly nine threes per game isn't that different from GW fan frustrations with Drumgoole when he does that (Reynolds is 62nd nationally in shot attempts per game, and 16th in threes attempted overall). The Hawks need Reynolds to play well, as they are 1-5 this year when he fails to hit 10 points this season.

The third piece of Joe's "big 3" is Rasheer Fleming, who is currently being mocked in the first round of many NBA draft boards with his skill level and size. Fleming did not have major offers coming out of HS - outside of SJU, he was offered by just Albany, Siena, and Towson. The junior from Camden has continued to get better though, as he's increased his production by 4 ppg each year and has improved his distance shooting (career best 43% this year, 45th nationally in field goal percentage). He also rebounds at a high clip (36th in nation in rebounds per game, and he is the top defensive rebounder in the league). Fleming's length causes great disruption defensively as well, as he averages over a steal and a block per contest as well (84th in blocks per game). He has been a bit quieter in SJU's last two games, scoring just 17 total points in them. This is largely due to foul trouble, although it hasn't hurt his efficiency (he went 5/7 from 3). After Rafael, Fleming has posted the second most double-doubles in the A10. Who CC elects to put on Fleming will be something to watch, because this doesn't feel like a good matchup for Sean.

Filling in the gaps of the starting unit are Anthony Finkley and Justice Ajogbor. Finkley entered the starting lineup three games ago following a Hawk loss to Loyola. He's played 34 minutes in each of their last two games, which are career highs although he found himself in foul trouble in both contests. The sophomore wing has good size which helps him rebound well and he is shooting 43% from distance. In general, he seems like a good connector piece that provides Lange with more size to begin games. Ajogbor is a transfer from Harvard who holds his own in the paint. He is top 20 in blocks per game at 2.1 bpg, a season after he swatted nearly three per contest with the Crimson. Ajogbor trails only Miles Rubin of Loyola in that category. He can pull down a few boards and finish effectively near the rim, although his field goal percentage being higher than his free throw percentage indicates range limitations. In general, he is not a primary option offensively for Joe's though. In fact, he has the lowest offensive performance rating of the primary Hawk players (-1.25 OBPR) per EvanMiya.

Rutgers transfer Derek Simpson and redshirt freshman Dasear Haskins will likely command the majority of bench minutes. Simpson is the Greer replacement as the third guard along the perimeter. He was starting for much of the year before Finkley took his place recently. Simpson is currently second in assists on the squad, rebounds well for a guard, and is one of the better Hawk defenders. EvanMiya rates him with a +2.22 DBPR which trails only Ajogbor and Fleming on the team. Somewhat like Greer last year, he can make an open shot but isn't an offensively efficient player - Simpson is shooting 35% from the field over his three year career, which seems odd given his FT percentages (~82%). In his last seven games, Simpson has struggled a bit more than average, converting on just 5 of 24 three point attempts (21%). During this stretch, he has not hit double figures once which may have played a role in his benching.

Haskins is yet another guard-forward hybrid that Lange loves to recruit. The first year player is currently more adept attacking the tin and finishing versus making shots from deep (he's under 30% from 3, but still shoots 50% from the field overall) and will crash the glass on both ends. Overall outside of Finkley, it feels like he could be the swing factor for the Hawks tomorrow. The biggest weakness as shown above is that the Hawks do not get a lot of production from their bench. Relegating Simpson has helped a bit, but Haskins is really the only other option they have to boost those numbers. Shawn Simmons II will see spot minutes, but the former three-star HS prospect is very raw offensively still despite having some major offers coming out of HS.

An initial glance at this matchup would place the focus on how GW's defense matches up against the Hawk offensive attack, however like many games this season the bigger question is GW's ability to put up points. St. Joe's ranking #3 in block percentage in conference play is a concern, given GW is the 11th worst team in the nation when it comes to not getting their shots blocked on offense. A ridiculous 13.4% of their shot attempts get blocked. If St. Joe's is hot from 3 like VCU was (somewhat out of the control of the defense) can GW keep up? It will also mean finishing the transition chances they get. One thing that does work in GW's favor is that Joe's backcourt prefers not to get to the rim unlike some other backcourts. There's no one even similar to Greer in that regard on this season's roster. Fleming is the toughest matchup. Most coaches will not look to change up lineups unless a team is majorly slumping or there's injuries, but if there was a time to start Jun again it would probably be this matchup because asking Sean to defend Fleming feels not much different than Davidson asking Laput to guard Hansen. Lange will probably exploit that matchup. It may be ideal if Rafael is on him - Castro is fairly mobile for a big. Additionally, now that Simpson is not starting Gerald will be tasked with guarding Finkley to start, who has a two inch advantage on him. Tricky will need to avoid fouling Reynolds on a 3. Dayan has not played much recently but given that hybrid wing prototype on the Hawks roster, perhaps this is a good opportunity to play him more (if healthy). I agree with others that this is probably the toughest matchup remaining during the regular season for the team.

Projected Score: St. Joe's 71, GW 70. 50% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 54% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs a 43.6% chance at a W.
 

Half priced beers again tonight.  Make sure to get yourself some Dribblin' George Lager.  A portion of the sales goes the NIL fund.

“This is not a team to shy away or back down from.”

Of all the things that concern me about this game…the amount of effort and fight by our guys isn’t one of them!!

This is gonna be a doozy of a game and fun to watch!

Colonials now getting 2.5 @ The Emerald City. Not liking this one. Thing I’ll apply my funds to the half price coldies tonight.

Nice breakout game by Bevins, and Castro great as usual. Need more from the rest of the guys in the second half.

Jun needs to get stay on the bench tn!

Jun trying to drive over much bigger defensive players and getting stuffed.  They don’t have to leave their feet and they can stop him

They are drawing fouls now, but unfortunately they drew almost none in the first half…