Boise State Broncos
Date: Monday March 31st, 2025
Time: 5:30 PM ET
Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
TV: FS1
Ranks: 48th (KenPom), 53rd (Bart Torvik), 54th (Haslametrics), 52nd (EvanMiya)
2024-25 Record: 24-10, 14-6 (T-4th in Mountain West)

Head-to-Head: First time facing the Broncos! GW is a career 4-2 against teams that are currently members of the Mountain West (at least until some leave for the new generation Pac-12). The Revs are 0-1 against Air Force, 1-0 against Nevada, 1-1 against New Mexico (including of course the NCAA tournament win), 1-0 against San Diego State (the NIT semifinal win), and 1-0 against Utah State.

Offensive Efficiency: 51st (KenPom), 54th (Bart Torvik), 44th (Haslametrics), 55th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 61st (KenPom), 57th (Bart Torvik), 68th (Haslametrics), 59th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 290th (KenPom), 284th (Bart Torvik), 326th (Haslametrics), 288th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 35th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 26th
Rim & 3 Rate: 88% (46th)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Rebound Margin: +7.7 RPG (10th)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 16.8 FTM (20th)
Free Throw Percentage: 77.7% (21st)
Scoring Defense: 66.1 PPG (33rd)
Scoring Margin: +8.8 PPG (41st)
Winning Percentage: 70.6% (49th)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 21.6 FTA (56th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 25.7 DRPG (88th)
Bench Points Per Game: 23.2 PPG (92nd)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Blocks Per Game: 2.6 BPG (278th)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 10.7 TO/G (288th)
Fastbreak Points: 7.4 PPG (293rd)
Steals Per Game: 5.4 SPG (316th)
Three Point Percentage: 31% (317th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#11 G Alvaro Cardenas (Senior; Granada, Spain) - 11.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 7 apg, 1.4 spg; 42% FG, 32% 3-PT, 76% FT per 34.8 mpg/34 GP
#13 F Andrew Meadow (Sophomore; Santa Clarita, CA) - 12.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg; 46% FG, 34% 3-PT, 84% FT per 29.5 mpg/34 GP
#6 F Pearson Carmichael (Freshman; Bend, OR) - 6.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg; 42% FG, 31% 3-PT, 75% FT per 15.6 mpg/19 GP
#1 F O'Mar Stanley (Senior; Overland Park, KS) - 7.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg; 46% FG, 18% 3-PT, 67% FT per 17.5 mpg/34 GP
#2 F Tyson Degenhart (Senior; Spokane, WA) - 17.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.4 apg; 52% FG, 32% 3-PT, 80% FT per 33.4 mpg/34 GP

Key Bench Players:
#22 F Javan Buchanan (Junior; Lafayette, IN) - 9.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg; 52% FG, 33% 3-PT, 81% FT per 20.8 mpg/34 GP
#5 G RJ Keene II (RS Junior; The Woodlands, TX) - 1.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.5 apg; 35% FG, 22% 3-PT, 68% FT per 18.3 mpg/33 GP
#0 G Julian Bowie (Freshman; Pocatello, ID) - 3.7 ppg, 1.5 rpg; 36% FG, 33% 3-PT, 92% FT per 13 mpg/32 GP
#10 F Emmanuel Ugbo (Sophomore; Barendrecht, Netherlands) - 3.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg; 51% FG, 26% 3-PT, 79% FT per 9.9 mpg/33 GP

Key Losses:
Chibuzo Agbo (Transferred to USC; San Diego, CA) - 13.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg; 45% FG, 41% 3-PT, 72% FT per 31.2 mpg/33 GP
Max Rice (Graduated; Boise, ID) - 12.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.8 apg; 37% FG, 35% 3-PT, 84% FT per 31.9 mpg/33 GP
Roddie Anderson III (Transferred to Xavier; Huntington Beach, CA) - 6.5 ppg, 3 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.2 spg; 36% FG, 27% 3-PT, 55% FT per 26.3 mpg/33 GP
Cam Martin (Graduated; Yukon, OK) - 5.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.4 apg; 48% FG, 19% 3-PT, 65% FT per 17.6 mpg/32 GP

Preview:
The Mountain West has ranked above the Atlantic 10 the past four seasons as a conference, per KenPom. It's no secret that the league has succeeded when it comes to scheduling and winning the games needed OOC to make the conference a multi-bid league, although that success has not exactly carried over into March. You have San Diego State carrying the torch for the league with the school committing heavily to athletics, but Utah State has been a consistent force the last few years as well. They are very much the VCU of the west, losing their coach year after year and not missing a beat. Colorado State, New Mexico, and Nevada have made some noise themselves. We shall see whether CSU can maintain the momentum now that Medved has chosen to return home to Minnesota. UNM won a game in the tournament this year and definitely commits to basketball, but with Pitino Jr off to X they will similarly be in rebuild mode. UNR has been solid under Steve Alford, but don't have the same buzz that they did under Musselman. In a given year, UNLV may help provide some solid Q2 opportunities for these schools, although the program isn't at the level it once was or considered a top level job in the league anymore. The recent Josh Pastner hire seems really odd, but at the very least one that will be fascinating to watch. Fresno theoretically could be better some seasons, but that athletic department is a mess right now and a few players were kicked off the team for betting on their own squad. It's not surprising that Wyoming is a hard place to recruit to, but the Cowboys definitely have a strong home court advantage. While Air Force and San Jose State generally find themselves towards the bottom of the conference, the league overall benefits from not being bloated - something that cannot be said for the A10.

Often lost in the shuffle among the better teams in the league is Boise State. Leon Rice isn't a coach that is often talked about for power conference gigs (likely because Boise hasn't won a game in the tournament) but he definitely seems like he'd do well at any place. Prior to his arrival 15 years ago, BSU had made just five NCAA tournaments in their history. They weren't an awful program by any means, but a middling one for much of their history. While they probably still consider themselves a football-first school, you might as well pencil in a 20 win season for them with Rice on the sidelines. He's hit that mark in 12 of 15 seasons, and one of the seasons he didn't was the season affected by COVID where he came up a game short. This season, the Broncos just missed making it four straight years in the big dance.

Under Rice, you can pretty much forget about trying to get second chance opportunities. The Broncos have been top 60 in defensive rebound percentage in all 15 seasons with the Wazzu alum along the sidelines, including six seasons where they were top 10 nationally in that category. They have been even better there than Mark Few's Gonzaga squads, and Rice had spent over a decade as an assistant under Few. This year and last year's teams in particular have been elite in that category and they do well in forcing teams to play in isolation. BSU has played at different tempos in Rice's tenure, however they have made an effort to slow things down since 2022, which was the start of their yearly contention for March Madness. These teams also played lockdown defense, ranking in the top 30 of KenPom's defensive efficiency rankings the previous three years behind a stable of switchable forwards. The Broncos slipped a bit there this season (ranking only 61st) which may have cost them the bid. It's either that or their substandard three point shooting (just 31% on the year) which is the worst they have shot from behind the arc in like 22 years. Losing Rice's son Max Rice to graduation and Chibuzo Agbo to USC definitely didn't help, as those two combined to drill 150 threes which accounted for nearly 59% of the team's makes. They were also the two best shooters on the team by percentage among players who averaged at least one three point make on the year.

Like this year's GW squad, Boise's star resides in the frontcourt. Tyson Degenhart was not a heralded recruit coming out of HS in Spokane but has continued to develop over the course of his collegiate career, notably increasing his scoring average in every season. It's a shame that there will be fewer such stories in college basketball in the future - there's something to be said for staying at one place and developing under a single system. Given his hometown, Gonzaga would have been a no-brainer landing spot but I'm sure Few wouldn't have poached his friend's top player. Degenhart also paces the team in rebounding at over six boards a game, with nearly a third of those coming on the offensive side of the ball. While he's at his best near the basket (71st nationally in field goal percentage and second best in the MW behind Nelly Junior Joseph of New Mexico) and drawing contact (32nd nationally in free throw attempts behind Donovan Dent of New Mexico), he can also stretch the floor and bury a three if left alone. Degenhart has scored in double figures in all but one game this season. Unfortunately he hasn't fouled out in over two years otherwise that might have been a way to get him out of the game.

Degenhart's frontcourt buddy O'Mar Stanley also returned this year after ranking third on the team in scoring a year ago. The Kansas native began his career at St. John's, where he spent two seasons largely coming off the bench before making the trip out west. I provided a couple of reasons for why this year's Boise team failed to make the dance while the previous three teams did above - defensive ability and shooting - but Stanley would be a third reason. He's suffered a final year slump with his numbers down across the board compared to the 2023-24 season (unsurprisingly, his minutes have been cut as well). Stanley has less range compared to Degenhart (he's never been a good three point shooter, and is a spotty FT shooter at best) and is not defending at the same level as his junior year (although still provides a bit of rim protection). He does continue to rebound at a decent clip on both sides of the ball though. Boise is 11-0 on the year when Stanley scores in double figures.

California native Andrew Meadow has enjoyed a second year breakout after largely coming off the bench in his freshman campaign. You'll notice above that I've listed him in one of the guard positions but with a forward label. The past 11 Boise teams have ranked in the top 100 in KenPom's "average height" metric, and this year's team is no different which has certainly helped the defense. Meadow, who stands at 6'7", has improved on his rookie figures in all categories - he leads the team in three point makes (at a decent 34% clip) and is 84% at the FT line. In general, he does a pretty decent job of getting to the line and drawing contact.

Rice has shown to not be against giving freshmen major minutes right away. Last year, Meadow got some decent run. Coming into this season, Oregon native Pearson Carmichael was actually expected to sit out the year, but his rapid development resulted in a burned redshirt by January and a starting spot by February - which included a 21 point performance in a big win over New Mexico. Carmichael does not log major minutes despite starting but he has good length and has shot the ball at all three levels fairly well for a first year. Given Rice's track record when it comes to internal development, I fully expect an even bigger year from him in 25-26 assuming he sticks around.

Intra-conference transfer Alvaro Cardenas arrives in the Gem State after spending the previous three years at San Jose State. Even though he's 6'1", he looks like a midget on the floor playing alongside 6'7" and 6'8" guys. Cardenas is as important a player as any on the team. The Spaniard mans the point and is masterful in doing so. He ranks seventh nationally in both total assists and assists per game, and 12th in assist/turnover ratio, handing out nearly three dimes for every turnover. All three marks led the Mountain West. With that kind of sure-handedness, it's not too surprising that he leads the team in minutes played. In addition to his passing, he's a good FT shooter and has quick hands at the point of attack defensively (the only guy on the squad who averages over a steal a game). In general, Boise is more of a "fundamentally sound" defensive team than one that is overly aggressive. Cardenas enters Monday's game on a bit of a cold streak, as he's shot under 40% from the field in eight straight games.

Four players see decent run from off the bench. The Broncos have a Buchanan of their own in Javan Buchanan, who is yet another hybrid forward in that 6'7"-6'8" range. Prior to coming up to the D1 level, he was a first-team all-American in the NAIA ranks (Indiana Wesleyan). Buchanan has not had trouble against high levels of competition this season. That's especially true inside the arc, as he's shooting 53% from the field and 81% from the line. He will also compete on the glass. Outside of a late February outburst against Nevada, Buchanan has really struggled since mid-February. That may be why he played a combined 11 minutes in the semis and finals in the conference tournament. Julian Bowie is another true freshman from in-state that's seen decent run. During his junior year of HS, Bowie was Idaho's player of the year. While he doesn't have quite the same finishing ability inside as some of his teammates, he has a bright future ahead. He's only attempted 12 FTs on the year, yet has made 11 of them - if he can get to the line more often next year, he can become a real threat. Bowie's eight points in the championship against Colorado State was his first points in five weeks. Emmanuel Ugbo is another versatile forward who opted to forgo a pro career in Europe to play in the US. In his limited minutes, he will be looking to use his frame to get downhill rather than shoot threes (51% from the field overall compared to just 26% from deep). He's received his most minutes of the season in the last two games. Ugbo rewarded Rice's decision by putting up 17 against New Mexico in the semifinals. Finally, RJ Keene II is a guy who GW was pursuing during the Jamion era. He rebounds very well for his position and has flashed playmaking chops. Keene seemed like a pretty good shooter in HS but that hasn't materialized in college (just 21%). His scoring average has remained the same despite his minutes doubling this year, which suggests he's more of a glue guy than a scorer when he's in the game.

This isn't the best matchup for GW, as Boise's objectives offensively don't seem to match GW's defensively. The Broncos have a bunch of mediocre shooters (not outright bad or great) but are very efficient attacking the hoop. The Revs have been pretty decent along the perimeter this year but have also been burned when it comes to penetration at times. I'm curious whether CC opts to play even a bit of zone in this game and force Boise to maybe shoot them out of it. Doubles are surely coming Degenhart's way. On the other side of the ball, things look a bit better. BSU doesn't force too many turnovers, which is good for a GW team that can be a bit careless with the ball. They are also not a top shot blocking team, although I still wonder whether their length will still cause a number of weak layup attempts to get blocked. If possible, beating Boise down the floor in transition before they can get set would really help, given GW's struggles in the halfcourt. If the game is called close (many fouls called), it's definitely advantage BSU at the FT line. Regardless of the result, hopefully GW can remain competitive to avoid going out on a disappointing note (like the second half of the Mason game). One factor to watch will be the rebounding battle. I fully expect BSU to win in that category (they are tenth nationally in rebound margin after all, rebounding their opposition by nearly eight boards), but they cannot be winning that battle by an overwhelming margin for GW to have a chance at an upset.

Projected Score: Boise State 74, GW 66. 25% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 24% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs a 20% chance at a W.
 

Boise St favored by 8.5.

One optimistic note is that we’ve done pretty well with low expectations.

Gwmayhem wrote:

Starting this tournament on March 31 has a similar feel to the Dodgers and Cubs beginning the MLB season two weeks early in Japan.  Or maybe it's more like the Duke's Mayo Bowl.  Nevertheless, it's one (or more) GW games to watch so no complaints here.  

Definitely feels more like a Duke's Mayo Bowl or Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl.

Some chatter on Trilly Donovan's Discord that Sean Hansen may not be available for us tonight. 

For Boise State: No Lockett or Anderson.  Neither appear to be contributors.

If we're missing a (relatively) big like Sean in a team that is strong down low, that is not good. More offensively than defensively, but still, even in drawing fouls. Not letting Degenhart totally roll over us would seem to loom large.
   Excellent preview by dmvpirahna, as always.
   Hope we can surprise. 
Their rebounding margin on defense is less scary than if they are good on the offensive boards. We've
been hobbled by second, third, fourth and fifth chance rebounds.
  Other questions are which formerly unimpressive Boise State shooter has the potential to win the coveted career 3-point shooting award?
And how will the portal departures and Crown money affect play? Will Jun and Jacoi be more motviated to show their skills for a new audience? Will we play them much? 
Will the rest of team be motivated by the showcase, as such, opportunity and money?
performance award? Which Drumgoole will show up? Good time for the streak shooting to be positive--for Trey A as well. All we can ask from Castro is to be Castro, which is a huge plus.
   The most disturbing aspect of this is Boise State wanted this third-tier tournament so much they turned down the NIT. Money may be the factor. Also they will be pissed from being the first 4 out. Think without looking back again, they beat Clemson and BC in OOC.
    The hope is they will be overwound, Mountain West oversold and we play like we have nothing to lose.

Free Quebec wrote:

I’m going to post something that is behind a paywall, so I’m going to give the site a big plug.  There’s a Wordpress site I found not long ago called StaringAtTheFloorboards.Wordpress.com. 

It’s $10 a year for a subscription and if you want to better understand matchups, gamble, or play college basketball DFS, it’s easily worth that small subscription fee. 

Anyway, here’s his preview (which I think is great, though perhaps not giving enough thought to how much we’ll miss Hansen if he doesn’t play).



George Washington will reportedly have everyone available except possibly Hansen per a reliable source, and Boise State should have everyone of consequence in Vegas as well. The Revs work heavily at the rim offensively (98th percentile rim rate per Synergy) through Castro, and shoot the ball sideways from the perimeter, pairing a 97th percentile c&s rate with a 19th percentile efficiency rating. Boise typically islands the post to stay true on the perimeter, but GW is a team you have to help against in the paint, so we’ll see what Rice does. Boise has the same jump shooting issues GW has (95th percentile c&s rate with an even worse efficiency rating), but the Revs are extremely aggressive in their ball screen coverage and post denial, with a ton of high hedging, trapping, and blitzing, something that the Broncos saw a lot of in the MWC, but had very mixed results against (Boise doesn’t really run a ton of PNR, and prefer to post up their big wings, but how those wings shoot on the perimeter against the numbers advantage this Revs defensive structure gives you with two to the ball will likely decide the game). 8.5 seems too high and lean Revs

Understand Hansen is on a long ago planned family vacation out of the N. A. Continent

GW0509 wrote:

Poog wrote:

Understand Hansen is on a long ago planned family vacation out of the N. A. Continent

He didn't believe we'd be in the Final Four this week!?

Jabari Edwards, part 2.  Couldn't make it back to the CBI game against VCU back in the late Hobbs era.

 

I am going to assume that the thrilling (or, at least as thrilling as third-tier tournament´s opening round game can get) end to the first game will mean tipoff of the GW game is a tad late. The Crown Fever, catch it!

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

Game just doesn’t feel right.  3 lame ducks playing and a 4th player away with his mommy and daddy on vacation.   Season ended with blowout loss to Mason. Let it rest in peace.

Unless we win.  Then this tournament is awesome.

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

Game just doesn’t feel right. 3 lame ducks playing and a 4th player away with his mommy and daddy on vacation. Season ended with blowout loss to Mason. Let it rest in peace.

 Does this mean you and Vegas Vick did not trek out to southern Nevada for this event?

UGGGGGLY by both teams