Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Date: Monday November 24th, 2025
TIme: 5:00 PM ET
Venue: John Gray Gymnasium (George Town, Cayman Islands)
TV: FloHoops
Ranks: 142nd (KenPom), 136th (Bart Torvik), 144th (Haslametrics), 147th (EvanMiya), 170th (Sports Illustrated)
2024-25 Record: 22-12, 12-6 (T-2nd in CUSA)
2025-26 Projected Record: 18-13, 11-9 (T-3rd in CUSA)

Head-to-Head: First time facing the Blue Raiders!

Offensive Efficiency: 176th (KenPom), 198th (Bart Torvik), 162nd (Haslametrics), 209th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 139th (KenPom), 106th (Bart Torvik), 152nd (Haslametrics), 122nd (EvanMiya)
Pace: 85th (KenPom), 131st (Bart Torvik), 100th (Haslametrics), 86th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 185th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 150th
Rim & 3 Rate: 85% (116th)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Three Point Percentage Defense: 30.3% (19th; 3rd in CUSA)
Rebounds Per Game: 38.38 RPG (35th; 3rd in CUSA)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 26.82 DRPG (42nd; 5th in CUSA)
Bench Points Per Game: 24.82 PPG (57th; 2nd in CUSA)
Blocks Per Game: 4.4 BPG (57th; 2nd in CUSA)
Winning Percentage: 64.7% (81st; 2nd in CUSA)
Scoring Offense: 76.7 PPG (98th; 1st in CUSA)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 11.56 ORPG (100th; 3rd in CUSA)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Three Point Percentage: 31.6% (301st; 8th in CUSA)
Free Throw Percentage: 67% (318th; 9th in CUSA)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#55 G Sean Smith (Graduate Student; Louisville, KY) - 10.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 spg; 44% FG, 34% 3-PT, 79% FT per 35 mpg/31 GP at Western Illinois last season
#11 G Tre Green (Senior; Baltimore, MD) - 4.5 ppg, 1.6 rpg; 47% FG, 40% 3-PT, 79% FT per 13.3 mpg/31 GP at Middle Tennessee last season
#22 G Kamari Lands (Senior; Indianapolis, IN) - 8.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.2 apg; 36% FG, 29% 3-PT, 70% FT per 20 mpg/22 GP at Middle Tennessee last season
#10 F Torey Alston (RS Sophomore; Durham, NC) - 6.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1 bpg; 58% FG, 22% 3-PT, 55% FT per 20.1 mpg/34 GP at Middle Tennessee last season
#13 F Chris Loofe (Junior; Leander, TX) - 4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1 bpg; 53% FG, 19% 3-PT, 52% FT per 13.5 mpg/34 GP at Middle Tennessee last season

Key Bench Players:
#2 G Jahvin Carter (Sophomore; Alcoa, TN) - 2.1 ppg; 33% FG, 32% 3-PT, 27% FT per 8.2 mpg/26 GP at Penn State last season
#0 G Alec Oglesby (Graduate Student; Lawrenceville, GA) - 1.5 ppg; 22% FG, 17% 3-PT, 50% FT per 7.3 mpg/4 GP at Middle Tennessee last season
#23 G James Dent Jr. (Graduate Student; Springfield, IL) - 14.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.1 apg; 39% FG, 35% 3-PT, 75% FT per 34.9 mpg/31 GP at Northern Illinois last season
#5 F Jarred Hall (Junior; Lebanon, TN) - 2.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg; 100% FG, 100% 3-PT per 5 mpg/3 GP at Middle Tennessee last season

Key Losses:
Jestin Porter (Transferred to Clemson; Houston, TX) - 15 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.1 spg; 41% FG, 36% 3-PT, 82% FT per 33.8 mpg/34 GP
Essam Mostafa (Graduated; Cairo, Egypt) - 14.5 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.2 spg; 61% FG, 46% 3-PT, 63% FT per 27.3 mpg/33 GP
Camryn Weston (Graduated; Albany, GA) - 12.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.1 spg; 42% FG, 28% 3-PT, 75% FT per 28 mpg/34 GP
Jlynn Counter (Transferred to Charleston; Oklahoma City, OK) - 10.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1 spg; 43% FG, 30% 3-PT, 75% FT per 27.4 mpg/31 GP
Justin Bufford (Graduated; Selma, AL) - 5.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg; 34% FG, 26% 3-PT, 61% FT per 24.5 mpg/34 GP

Preview:
Not enough people talk about just how good the CUSA was last year. The conference finished 9th in net rating on KenPom, right behind the A10. It was the league's highest finish since 2011. People forget that it was one of the top leagues for a while back in the day, when teams like Charlotte, Cincinnati, DePaul, Louisville, Marquette, SLU, USF, and TCU were members. Liberty got a lot of the headlines (deservedly so as Ritchie McKay continues to get it done there), but 9 out of 10 teams finished in the top 200. Florida International was the lone exception, but it's been impossible to win there for like forever.

MTSU was one of five teams that finished over .500 during league play. Nick McDevitt has done a decent job leading the Blue Raiders after a few rough early years (they went 8-3 against the spread in non-con play last year), but Middle fans are naturally going to compare him to his predecessor, Kermit Davis, who really knocked it out of the park in his later years there (shoutout to Giddy Potts!). One thing that has remained consistent between the two coaches is the lack of success opponents have had shooting the three ball the minute they step foot in Murfreesboro. Will Warren published an article back in July detailing this weird statistic (I recommend subscribing to BUR, the writers do a great job). 

Since 2016-17, Blue Raider foes have shot 28.6% from deep at their arena. In games away from the Murphy Center, that number goes up to 36.1%. While it's not surprising to see opponents shoot worse in a road environment, that 7.5% difference is basically unheard of. The next closest team, Michigan State, only has a 5.3% difference in defensive 3P% between home and non-home arenas. That's a difference of 2% between the first and second place teams in this statistic, which is pretty significant. MTSU is 35-19 against the spread at home post-COVID, which is the third best mark in college basketball. You get the point - the good news is that GW is facing them on a neutral site and not at their place.

It helps that McDevitt is a proponent of taking away the three ball, as MTSU has ranked top 100 in defensive 3PA% rate in five of seven years. Evansville and Michigan combined to shoot just 20.5% from 3 against the Blue Raiders, which is definitely due for a regression despite them limiting threes. There is certainly an analytic advantage for them there though given MTSU generally likes to bomb away from deep on offense. Whether the latter is a good idea or not is probably a fair question to ask. Despite generally taking over 40% of shots from 3, MTSU has never had a team rank top 150 in 3P% under McDevitt. Equally as concerning, outside his best year (2021-22) the Blue Raiders have been an eyesore at the FT line, ranking bottom 100 every season (that almost feels hard to do). It's simply not a very aesthetically pleasing offense - they are generally towards the bottom in assisted buckets as well. Basically, you can predict whether McDevitt will have a respectable offense or not based on how efficient the team is inside the arc. If they aren't above average there, they are basically guaranteed to have a subpar offense.

Expecting the offense to take steps forward (or even maintain last year's mark) seems unfair, given how much Middle Tennessee lost. All four double figure scorers are out of the fold. Jlynn Counter did a great job setting up the offense while limiting miscues, posting the 53rd beset assist/turnover ratio in the nation. The only other guy on last year's roster who averaged over 2 assists a game was Camryn Weston, who has also graduated. Jestin Porter was a go-to scorer who provided over a third of MTSU's three point makes for the season (96th in three pointers made). Perhaps the biggest loss was Essam Mostafa. The big Egyptian was a monster on the glass, topping all CUSA players in rebounds per game (23rd nationally), offensive rebounds per game (18th nationally), and double-doubles. He was also top 15 in field goal percentage.

McDevitt deserves a lot of credit for keeping his roster relatively intact. Six of their nine main rotation guys were on the roster in 2024-25. The leading returning scorer from last year is wing Kamari Lands, a former 4-star top 100 recruit who spent time at both Louisville and Arizona State before coming to MTSU last year. Neither of those teams were any good. The Cardinal squad he was on was Kenny Payne's disastrous 4-28 year with alarming levels of dysfunction. ASU meanwhile finished 127th on KenPom in 2023-24, the worst mark of Bobby Hurley's tenure. To his credit, he's had a decent start to the year (14.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg) with decent efficiency. The shooting splits prior to this season were rough though.

Torey Alston, a 20-game starter as a freshman, will start at the 4 after posting strong rebounding numbers (nearly 16 rbs per 40 mpg) while shooting 58% from the field and providing some help side rim protection - which will be needed with Mostafa out of the fold. His numbers this year so far are pretty similar to his first year. His range is fairly limited though (18% from deep, 55% from line). That probably hurts a bit of spacing offensively. While not great offensively (although he did have 26 on 21 shots against Murray yesterday), Alston fits well with what McDevitt wants to do on the other side of the ball.

Baltimore senior Tre Green will get the nod as the designated shooter in the backcourt. He's come off the bench for his first three years with MTSU and will have to adjust to being a starter. Green has seen his volume more than double, but his efficiency has really tanked. While the FT shooting is good, his other stats are fairly pedestrian. It could be possible that last year was an outlier, because he was fairly brutal shooting the ball in his first two years. Given McDevitt tends to emphasize defense first, Green will have to earn his minutes by playing better defense. Last year, he had a DBPR of -1.10 (EvanMiya). Porter was the only other player in the rotation to have a net negative rating on the defensive end, but he was also their leading scorer.

Joining Alston up front is Texas native Chris Loofe. His contributions offensively are not that dissimilar to Alston - good for a couple buckets inside (although he had a dismal -1.72 OBPR on EvanMiya - easily the worst on the team), good rebounding per minute metrics, and a bit of rim protection. Unfortunately, he is not much of a threat from deep to offset Alston's limited range. Additionally, like Green his efficiency has taken a major hit on higher volume compared to previous years. Loofe has also come dangerously close to fouling out in four straight games, and he's the only center with previous D1 experience.

Sixth year guard Alec Oglesby and junior Jarred Hall will be bigger factors in the rotation after seeing very limited action last year. Oglesby began his career at Cleveland State back in 2020 and has since spent time at UNC Wilmington and Stetson in addition to MTSU. His two years in DeLand are noteworthy, as they were among the best Hatter teams in school history (not saying a lot, but one of them made the NCAA tournament). Back in 2023-24, Oglesby averaged double figures scoring while shooting 40% from 3. McDevitt is hoping for that king of shooting from him off the bench this season. He made 4/5 threes against Murray yesterday.

Hall was a 3-star forward out of HS who began his collegiate career at Tulsa. Once again, he does not solve the lack of shooting at the 4 position (career 9/29 from 3), but he can be a connector piece on offense with his ability to move the ball.

McDevitt landed three D1 transfers from the portal, all who figure to play key roles this season. Jahvin Carter returns home to Tennessee after appearing in 26 games for the Nittany Lions. Just a sophomore, Carter has long-term upside as a penetrating guard, passer, and stout on-ball defender with decent positional size. He will certainly get the shots up - on the year, he has 11 shot attempts in just 23 minutes of play. The distance shooting has been rough, but Carter is talented - he posted 18 points against both Evansville and Michigan.

Sean Smith and James Dent Jr. both arrive from directional Illinois schools. Smith played two years at the JUCO level before moving up to Alabama State and later manning the point for Western Illinois in 2024-25. He can make a three when left open and is good at getting to the rim. In general, he is good at stuffing the stat sheet in a number of areas. There was a two game stretch in December against non-D1 teams where Smith posted consecutive triple-doubles. Smith rebounds well for his size, moves the ball well (98th in assist/turnover ratio), and is a good on-ball defender. Whether he can lead a winning team is a question - WIU in particular last year was horrendous and given he rarely came off the court (72nd nationally in minutes per game) he can't be free from blame.

Dent began his D1 career at Western Illinois (did not overlap with Smith) following two years of JUCO ball himself and spent last year at Northern Illinois. Man are the directional Illinois schools terrible outside of SIU. Eastern, Northern, and Western are equally terrible (and no, beating Loyola doesn't change things). Anyways, Dent was a high-volume gunner for both the Leathernecks and Huskies, averaging double figures in both D1 seasons. Like Smith, he played heavy minutes on a bad team (77th in minutes per game). He was more productive/efficient at NIU, but it was a worse team than the WIU squad he was on. The fact that he has played just 15 mpg so far says a lot. Despite being more "proven", it appears McDevitt would rather give more minutes to his returners that played less than Dent. That might be for the best for his efficiency - he can make a dent in other areas, including rebounding and playmaking.

The remainder of the roster consists of JUCOs and true freshmen likely to play smaller/deeper roles. Marcus Whitlock Jr. led his 30-5 Cowley College in scoring while draining 99 threes at a 42% clip. He also finished well at the rim. Luka Jovanovic adds depth up front and has considerable upside. The Serbian has a nice stroke and rebounds well. Savon Wykle began his career at a junior college (Parkland) before spending the last couple at D2 institutions. He averaged double figures at Missouri-St. Louis, a squad that won over 20 games. Bahamian big man Brandon Oloumou and Volunteer State natives Charvez Ambrose and Jax Howard round out the roster.

MTSU is definitely the weakest of the three teams GW will play in the tournament. Unless they are running hot from deep from the large number of triples they attempt despite not being a good shooting team, there is not much they do really well offensively. It was interesting to see them only attempt 16 threes against Murray yesterday - something to track moving forward. They don't move the ball generally (despite 17 assists yesterday), crash the glass offensively, or get to the line. The fact that they want to run GW off the line and make the Revs go inside might not be the worst thing in the world honestly. Hopefully Woo's familiarity with MTSU can help the Buff and Blue - he's faced them seven times in his career since WKU is in the same conference. Unfortunately, he had two of his worst games of the season against them last year, going a combined 3/21 from the field. GW needs him and Bubu to have better games. Hopefully the team can shake off the disappointment of the McNeese game. The turnovers, especially coming from CJ and Jean, were sadly unsurprising, It was infuriating to see the ball just get knocked out of GW's hands on numerous occasions yesterday, and they had to know that was coming. Honestly, despite all of the turnovers the bigger disappointment for me came defensively. Prior to the late run, it felt like the Revs were playing with such little energy, allowing the Cowboys to get many cracks at finishing the possession with points even when they were unsuccessful on the first try.

Projected Score: GW 86, MTSU 76. 81% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik forecasts a 79% chance at a W. ESPN predicts a 79.9% chance for GW to move to 6-1.
 

The -11.5 line was ridiculously high.   
What I would like to see is a change in playing time for our 9 regulars.   Going 9 players deep is great, however I have always been a believer that your best players need to be on the court for as long as possible (barring other circumstances such as injury, foul trouble, fatigue, etc.).    Duh.    If I had my druthers, Garrett is on the Court for as long as his physical condition warrants.     Dinkins, Autry and Castro should also be seeing  30 plus minutes per game.  All 4 of these players are potential game changers.   Maybe put Jones in that group even though his decision making has not bee the best so far this season.    I am not sure I know the thinking of bringing in Dinkins and Johnson off the bench, even if it has been prior to the first media timeout.  

Christian Jones came to play this game!


Edit: 8:35 into the game. Jones has only played 4 minutes and has 6 points, 3 assists (official scorer gave his dime to Marshall for the three to Bubu, but I assume they’ll correct), 1 steal, and 1 block.  And he’d have a 4th dime if Castro finished that alley-oop he got fouled on.

Last edited by Free Quebec (11/24/2025 5:19 pm)

Anyone else get "Technical Difficulties" and no more game?

Burned yet again by FloHoops/FloSports…

MTSU radio broadcast: https://goblueraiders.com/watch/?Live=1973&type=Live

Apparently the power went out. Commentator just said there's another power outage coming in about 10 minutes.

EDIT: I guess the other power outage never happened? Either that or the MTSU radio guy was trying to throw us off

Last edited by gwstudent2024 (11/24/2025 5:52 pm)

Cutting down on turnovers. Thank you.

The FloSports broadcast now has more turnovers than GW…

DC Native wrote:

The FloSports broadcast now has more turnovers than GW…

Well played.


Feels like kind of a meh game from us, but with few turnovers and good shooting (garrett aside), it’s enough for the 15 point lead.