With 9 minutes to go, W&M is up 8 on the road at Duquesne and shooting 13-22 from three. Definitely need to guard the perimeter better Saturday than we did today.

W&M plays the 3rd fastest tempo, but is the quickest to shoot of any team in the country. Going to be a very uptempo game vs a surprisingly tricky team that may be 8-2 of they hold this lead.

In beating Duquesne, William and Mary shoots 15-30 from the 3.  Just saying

Pair of huge rising stars in the sport, Dan and Brian Earl

Dan Earl a heckuva player too

William & Mary is going to be an exciting high paced game, great test for GW

Looking forward to honoring Yinka on Saturday.  I was living in Milford, Connecticut in 1992 and saw him play at Milford Academy in high school.  Couldn't get over how large of a physical specimen he was and that he was headed to GW.  

Also looking forward to the 11 game Sat. slate for the A10!  Most of the games are solid matchups (4 on national tv) and for the first time this season we'll have a tad better idea of who's who and what's what in the league. GW is the latest start time and am hopeful we bring the energy and passion and make W&M wonder why we're playing so angry.  It's time!  

 

If anyone is going Saturday and looking to offload their replica Smith Center, please let me know as I can't make it!

William & Mary Tribe

Date: Saturday December 6th, 2025
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC) - 50 year celebration in the Smith Center!
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 120th (KenPom), 118th (Bart Torvik), 137th (Haslametrics), 134th (EvanMiya), 185th (Sports Illustrated)
Current NET Ranking: 50th (Q2 game)
2024-25 Record: 17-15, 11-7 (4th in CAA)
2025-26 Projected Record: 22-8, 12-6 (T-2nd in CAA)

Head-to-Head: 40-26, although there's only been three matchups in the 21st century. 50 years ago, GW defeated the Tribe 76-69. During that 1975-76 season, four players averaged double figures: Pat Tallent (23 ppg), John Holloran (14.3 ppg), Les Anderson (13.7 ppg), and Haviland Harper (11.8 ppg). In the most recent meeting, GW came out on top 95-89 during the 2023-24 season. It would not be surprising to see a similar score on Saturday, with both teams offensively-minded and preferring to play uptempo. The two teams have alternated wins and losses over the past four matchups, so hopefully the Revs can put an end to that pattern (prior to that, GW had won five in a row).

In the 2023 game, GW went into halftime with a narrow one point lead. The Tribe made eight triples in the first 20 minutes, compared to just three for GW. Trey Moss made as many threes for W&M as GW did during this time. Unfortunately, the Tribe did not exactly cool off after halftime as they proceeded to knock down ten more from deep in the second half, while GW again only made three. Like the Army game, GW's decisive advantage at the FT line (38 attempts vs. 9 for W&M) made the difference as the visitors had the advantage pretty much everywhere else. They out-rebounded GW and finished with 23 assists (compared to just 9 for the Buff & Blue). Still, GW had a 14 point lead with just over a minute left before W&M had a mini scoring surge late. JB led all scorers with 32 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. He got to the line 16 times, but also committed six turnovers. Garrett and Max each scored 15 (with Edwards pulling down 11 boards as well). Jun scored 13 points off the bench.

Offensive Efficiency: 139th (KenPom), 141st (Bart Torvik), 140th (Haslametrics), 159th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 110th (KenPom), 94th (Bart Torvik), 120th (Haslametrics), 118th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 3rd (KenPom), 4th (Bart Torvik), 3rd (Haslametrics), 5th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 274th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 199th
Rim & 3 Rate: 92% (11th)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 30 3PA (5th; 1st in CAA)
Bench Points Per Game: 31.91 PPG (8th; 2nd in CAA)
Three Pointers Per Game: 10.5 3PM/G (15th; 1st in CAA)
Fastbreak Points: 14.44 PPG (16th; 1st in CAA)
Assists Per Game: 16.5 APG (25th; 1st in CAA)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 54.4% (54th; 2nd in CAA)
Scoring Offense: 77.7 PPG (77th; 2nd in CAA)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.3 AST/TO (95th; 3rd in CAA)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 12.91 TO/G (96th; 3rd in CAA)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Rebound Margin: -1.3 RPG (268th; 9th in CAA)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 9.31 ORPG (271st; 10th in CAA)
Turnovers Per Game: 12.7 TO/G (272nd; 14th in CAA)
Scoring Defense: 76.4 PPG (296th; 13th in CAA)
Blocks Per Game: 1.8 BPG (347th; 14th in CAA)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#2 G Chase Lowe (Senior; Weddington, NC) - 8.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.1 spg; 52% FG, 40% 3-PT, 64% FT per 20.8 mpg/28 GP at William & Mary last season
#1 F Cade Haskins (Graduate Student; Minneapolis, MN) - 9.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.8 apg; 38% FG, 37% 3-PT, 74% FT per 25.2 mpg/26 GP at Dartmouth last season
#23 F Jo'el Emanuel (Graduate Student; Suffern, NY) - 11 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2 apg; 44% FG, 36% 3-PT, 59% FT per 32.9 mpg/33 GP at Fairleigh Dickinson last season
#16 F Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi (Junior; Stockholm, Sweden) - 5.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg; 44% FG, 35% 3-PT, 72% FT per 20.9 mpg/33 GP at La Salle last season
#22 F Kilian Brockhoff (Junior; Cuxhaven, Germany) - 1.3 ppg; 35% FG, 19% 3-PT, 70% FT per 4.3 mpg/23 GP at Saint Louis last season

Key Bench Players:
#0 G Reese Miller (Junior; Round Rock, TX) - 14.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.1 apg; 47% FG, 42% 3-PT, 68% FT per 31.4 mpg/31 GP at Blinn CC last season
#15 G/F Ryan Jackson Jr. (Sophomore; Mesa, AZ) - 1.6 ppg; 48% FG, 33% 3-PT, 44% FT per 5.4 mpg/22 GP at William & Mary last season
#8 G Jhei-R Jones (Graduate Student; Sauk Village, IL) - 10.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.3 spg; 41% FG, 28% 3-PT, 80% FT per 34.8 mpg/32 GP at D2 Winona State last season
#11 G Kyle Pulliam (Senior; Silver Spring, MD) - 9.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.5 apg; 46% FG, 31% 3-PT, 72% FT per 19.9 mpg/23 GP at William & Mary last season (Will start if healthy; has missed last two games with an eye injury)

Key Losses:
Gabe Dorsey (Graduated; Westminster, MD) - 13.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg; 46% FG, 45% 3-PT, 80% FT per 27.9 mpg/32 GP
Noah Collier (Transferred to La Salle; Mullica Hill, NJ) - 12.2 ppg, 5 rpg, 1 apg; 63% FG, 42% 3-PT, 73% FT per 19.5 mpg/22 GP
Matteus Case (Graduated; Pickering, Canada) - 8.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2 apg; 46% FG, 28% 3-PT, 74% FT per 21.7 mpg/32 GP
Caleb Dorsey (Graduated; Westminster, MD) - 7.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.7 apg; 41% FG, 31% 3-PT, 83% FT per 18.2 mpg/23 GP
Keller Boothby (Graduated; Plano, TX) - 7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.1 apg; 43% FG, 37% 3-PT, 77% FT per 26.1 mpg/32 GP
Isaiah Mbeng (Transferred to East Carolina; Potomac, MD) - 5.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.5 spg; 40% FG, 32% 3-PT, 71% FT per 19.9 mpg/32 GP
Malachi Ndur (Graduated; St. Thomas, Canada) - 5.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.6 apg; 36% FG, 26% 3-PT, 71% FT per 15.8 mpg/32 GP

Preview:
In the past couple of years, much has been discussed about conference realignment, especially among the top conferences. The power conferences are now geographically coast-to-coast, and most of them have 16-18 teams now. With the number of teams and quality opportunities available to teams in those conferences on a nightly basis, the bids that go to the Big Ten and SEC have increased as well. The ripple effects of those moves have extended to the mid and low-major conferences, with many conferences proactively adding members to avoid being completely gutted. A conference like the MAAC poaches from the NEC, the MVC takes from the Horizon and OVC, etc. To remain afloat, the NEC and OVC have to often go to the D2 ranks in order to replace the departed members.

It's definitely a good thing to be proactive as a conference during this era where teams are shifting affiliations all the time, however the moves that are being made have to make sense. That leads me to the CAA, who seemingly followed GW's lead in getting rid of the word "Colonial" from their branding (it happened two months after GW made the change, which doesn't feel like a coincidence). The CAA is in no-man's land as a conference in both basketball and football. They aren't a bad FCS conference by any means (URI is a member for football) but it's fair to ask how many of those schools really want to be there. William & Mary is leaving the CAA for the Patriot League in football starting next year. The same is true for basketball. If the Patriot would let them, I'm sure W&M would be fine with moving conferences for all sports and Northeastern would probably be interested as well.

For much of the 2000s and early 2010s, the CAA was roughly a top 15 college basketball conference. Although they lost both Mason and VCU to the A10 (along with solid programs in Georgia State and ODU to the Sun Belt and CUSA respectively) they only added two programs from the SoCon in Charleston and Elon. The conference remained solid up until 2022. A good program in James Madison departed for the Sun Belt, but the CAA responded by adding four programs - Hampton and North Carolina A&T from the Big South, Monmouth from the MAAC, and Stony Brook from the America East. Quite frankly, the additions did not make much sense at the time and still don't really now. It's not like most of the remaining members had anywhere better to go, so why add? They then added Campbell a year later to hit 14 teams. The A10 gets a lot of flack for being at 14-15 teams (Fordham and La Salle are not leaving in the interim no matter how much fans of the league want it) but at least their additions have made some sense over the years. I can't say the same for the CAA. Hampton and NC A&T are well-resourced HBCUs compared to the MEAC, but they just haven't been competitive in the CAA. This year will probably be the conference's best finish since 2022, but it's less about the CAA being better and more about the conferences around them - SoCon, Sun Belt, Big West, Ivy, and WAC (which lost Grand Canyon and Seattle) being down. 

The top of the Coastal - Charleston, Hofstra, Towson, UNC Wilmington are usually pretty good, but it's pretty much wide open after that. That's where a program like William & Mary can take advantage. The Tribe have famously never made the NCAA tournament in their history, but this year's team might have the chance to finally change that. The only problem is that the CAA is a one-bid league, and having 13 teams (they lost Delaware, GW's next opponent, to the CUSA) just makes it that much tougher to win the conference tournament.

Credit William & Mary's AD for hiring Brian Earl last year, as the Princeton alum really transformed Cornell into a good Ivy program post-COVID. We saw how fundamentally strong Sean Hansen was last year. Earl's older brother, Dan Earl, has done pretty well himself, winning the NIT last year with Chattanooga. That's the kind of person a program like W&M needs - someone who understands what it takes to win at a high-level academic institution. The transformation was apparent immediately, as the Tribe improved 87 spots compared to the previous squad under Dane Fischer. W&M went 11-7 in the CAA, their best finish since Fischer's first year taking over for Tony Shaver (although they did go 4-10 against the spread away from home). They do lose seven of their top nine guys, including three point gunner and leading scorer Gabe Dorsey, who led the conference in 3P% (sixth nationally) and was second in three point makes per game (19th nationally). His brother Caleb Dorsey also exhausted eligibility and Noah Collier (their top inside presence) is now at A10 rival La Salle.

Earl brought with him the fast pace that made his later teams so successful at Cornell to Williamsburg. The Tribe play the third fastest tempo overall, and have the quickest average possession length on offense. Prior to this season, Earl's teams have been offense first, but this season's team might be the best defensive squad he's ever had as a D1 coach. According to KenPom, it's also the best defense W&M has had since the 1997-98 season under Charlie Woollum. Offensively, the Tribe shoot it well from pretty much everywhere, and do a good job getting to the FT line. It's a pretty offense, one that emphasizes moving the ball with few ball screens and taking a lot of threes. Like many analytic coaches though, Earl doesn't promote offensive rebounding so the team can get back in transition on defense. If there's a weakness on this end, it's that they aren't very good at taking care of the ball (316th in turnover rate). The question is whether GW can get back to their turnover forcing ways from last year.

On defense, the Tribe have been great at generating turnovers, so that will be important to watch for GW. Whether it comes during the GW game or not, the regression monster is surely coming for the Tribe with regards to opponent three point shooting. W&M is currently 11th nationally in defensive 3P% (25.8%) but they also concede nearly 43.8% of attempts from there (286th). The chances will be there for GW to get great looks if they are generated well. W&M is also mediocre at best when it comes to giving up second chance opportunities and FT attempts, so that's also something GW can capitalize on. While the Tribe do have more of an interior presence compared to last year, I would not expect GW to have a hard time in the paint but they need to finish the layups with more precision.

William & Mary has decent continuity returning in the backcourt with both Chase Lowe and Kyle Pulliam running it back. Saturday will mark Lowe's 100th career game played in a W&M uniform. He's the engine that makes the team go, a penetrating guard with good size that finishes well at the basket. He's finished baskets at over a 53% rate over his career, and has incredibly only taken 12 threes across 3+ seasons. In addition to complementary scoring, Lowe is a good rebounder (nearly 5 rpg) and a good distributor (4.2 apg) which leads the team. He also led the CAA in assist rate during conference play last season. Back in 2023, GW had no answer for Lowe as he scored 16 points on 6/7 shooting and pulled down 8 rebounds in 23 minutes off the bench. Hopefully the team can do better against him this year.

Pulliam, who began his career in the D2 ranks (St. Thomas Aquinas) is a solid complementary presence. He appeared in 23 games last year and is decent in a number of areas, although is just so-so from 3. Like Lowe, he has quick hands on defense. It's worth noting that Pulliam went down just two minutes into their game against Abilene Christian with an eye injury and has not played since. I guess the Tribe didn't need him, given they won by 34 points.

Ryan Jackson Jr., Kyle Frazier, and Finn Lally will also play rotational (or fringe-rotational) roles after spending time on Earl's first W&M squad. Jackson Jr. has seen his minutes nearly quadruple from last year. The 6'6" wing from Arizona is very efficient inside the arc, shooting nearly 73% close to the hoop. He can also knock down the occasional three when left open. Jackson has the lowest usage rate among members of the rotation (uses just 11.1% of possessions, per KenPom) but the fact that he's turned the ball over just once in 204 minutes is fairly impressive. Frazier (another former D2 guy) and Lally are more spot minute options who will see 5-10 minutes if they play. The former player has actually seen his role reduce from last year because he is an inefficient shooter (although Frazier did score 12 and 10 points respectively against Richmond and VCU in December last season). Lally is a New Zealand native that can stretch the floor and provide a couple boards.

Lally will serve as backup to a couple of former A10 guys up front in Kilian Brockhoff (Saint Louis) and Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi (La Salle). Brockhoff, a native of Germany, actually began his career at UC Santa Barbara before ending up in the Gateway City last year. He can stretch the floor for the Tribe, rebound, and provide rim protection down low, something last year's team had none of. Brockhoff is also an underrated passer that Earl can play through, although he is very prone to coughing up the ball as well. He is coming off a game against Duquesne where he made four threes, so the question will be whether Slim is comfortable stretching out that far when defending. Last year against GW Brockhoff took and missed three triples in seven minutes of play.

Vahlberg Fasasi must have been included in the deal that sent Collier to Philadelphia. Honestly, he is a player I was kind of hoping GW was not going to have to face again because he has given the Revs fits in the past. The first time we faced him he went off for 19 points and 6 rebounds with 4 made threes in a 10 point La Salle win. He was quieter in the next three games against GW but did have 11 points back in March, the only game GW has won against him in five meetings. The Swede seems like a perfect fit for Earl's system, although he's not shooting particularly well from deep so far this year (just 29%). He's another guy though that can move the ball on offense and get into passing lanes. Fasasi is on a heater recently, as he's averaging 18.3 ppg in W&M's last three games.

The final two starting spots will be occupied by a couple of transfers from the northeast in Cade Haskins (Dartmouth) and Jo'el Emanuel (FDU). Haskins was someone that GW had expressed interest in a while ago during the JC era. He's from Minnesota and attended Jamison Battle's HS (DeLaSalle). Haskins can pull down a few rebounds a game but he's on the court to stretch the floor. He's a career 37% three point shooter on roughly five attempts per game. Haskins figures to take on the Dorsey role, as he was 85th nationally in three point percentage and 96th in three pointers per game. On the year, he's over 40% from 3 and has made multiple threes in seven of nine games. GW has been lackadaisical when it comes to guarding the perimeter, and the team cannot let him get going. He's much less efficient going inside, and has attempted just 56 twos in 63 career games.

If Pulliam still cannot go for Saturday, Emanuel will likely take his place in the starting five. The NY native was famously on the FDU squad that knocked off Purdue in the NCAA tournament. He logged nine minutes in that contest. While he shot 36% from deep last year he isn't a good FT shooter (career 63%). Emanuel will rebound but is prone to coughing up the ball. It will be interesting to see whether he can maintain his current stats - 64% from the field, 56% from 3 for the entire year. He is playing with much better talent around him, but that's way above his career averages.

A couple of non-D1 transfers round out the primary rotation. Reese Miller comes from the JUCO ranks after originally redshirting at ACU (he did not play against his previous school last week). Miller played on an okay Blinn CC squad and led the Buccaneers in scoring. Surprisingly, he is also leading W&M in scoring (11.9 ppg) this year despite coming off the bench. That speaks to the depth on this Tribe squad. He will likely be towards the top of the scouting report, given that he's scored double figures in every D1 game that he's appeared in. Miller is shooting over 40% from 3 and can also be a playmaker on offense. Jhei-R Jones (cool name) played on a good D2 squad (Winona State) and averaged double figures. He was the best FT shooter for the Warriors but wasn't particularly efficient. Jones definitely takes more threes than he should. If he is the one taking those shots, I think you can live with it if you are GW as long as they are relatively contested. On a team that has plus size pretty much across the board, Jones (who is just 6'1") definitely stands out. While he doesn't shine offensively, he is a presence for Earl's bunch defensively, with the third best DBPR (+1.12) on the team per EvanMiya.

Finally, along with Lally and Frazier freshman Kaleb Spencer and sophomore Colin Ndaw may see spot minutes. Spencer, who prepped at Fork Union Military Academy lsat year, adds more size down low. He can finish around the rim and is a terrific rebounder. Ndaw, a native of Senegal, sat out last year and probably remains a deeper option. Guards Miles Hicks and Ethan Connery (who was previously at the JUCO/D3 ranks) have not played on the year. Connery did not play in 2024-25 either.

The team that wins the turnover battle in what figures to be a frenetic, up-and-down game will likely have an upper hand in this game. While W&M on paper is not a top three point shooting team in terms of efficiency, the sheer volume of threes they take have the chance to put GW in a hole if the team does not wake up and guard along the perimeter. Interestingly, W&M likes to take non-corner threes despite those shots being slightly less analytically sound, as they led the nation in above-the-break threes attempted last year.

Guys like Bubu have to be better finishing at the rim. Jean will also look to have a better game against W&M, as he went a combined 6/23 from the field (2/15 from 3) in two games against the Tribe last year. This game could very well be a Q2 opportunity if W&M is able to maintain their current level moving forward. They are currently one spot above GW in the NET (50), although it's still early. In a game that celebrates 50 years playing in the Smith Center (and honoring Yinka), I trust CC will have the guys ready to play. Some home cooking should serve the team well. It's a major boost if Woo can play, especially to have another guy guard some of their forwards along the perimeter. It would be a shame if Trey Moss misses out on not just one, but two revenge games this year (since he missed the South Florida game as well) but it doesn't look like he's going to play this year.

Projected Score: GW 91, W&M 81. 81% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik forecasts an 82% chance at a W. ESPN predicts an 86.3% chance for GW to move to 8-2.
 

Mad Wayne Dobbs. 

Apparently, no one knows anything about Tyrone Marshall's condition except that he didn't play in the Army game.

Not sure about the importance of gambling philosophy or predictability when it comes to enjoying a good matchup.  Here's what I do know.  W&M beat both Georgian Court and Regent (yeah I know) by 50 and lost to St. Johns by 33.  They lost @ Richmond by 4 and won @ Duquesne by 4.  They started the Duquesne game on a 19-4 run and made 4 threes before the first timeout.  Duquesne came back and took the lead late, but W&M held on for the W. 

We all have our own theories on how to beat W&M.  They will take their first open shot and go on streaks.  This is where I hope CC goes to strategic full court pressure and some halfcourt zone which we saw last year but not this year so far.  We have to establish the pace of this game because we're quicker than them at almost every position.  

On a day with great matchups in the A10, this game will be the cherry on top with a GW win weather it's by 1 or 10.765234 points.

moneybox wrote:

Apparently, no one knows anything about Tyrone Marshall's condition except that he didn't play in the Army game.

I could be wrong, but it looks like he’s playing.