Anyone want to give me FL -23?

Florida Gators

Date: Saturday December 13th, 2025
Time: 2:30 PM ET
Venue: Amerant Bank Arena (Sunrise, FL)
TV: ESPN2
Ranks: 15th (KenPom), 17th (Bart Torvik), 18th (Haslametrics), 12th (EvanMiya), 3rd (Sports Illustrated)
2024-25 Record: 36-4, 14-4 (2nd in SEC)
2025-26 Projected Record: 21-10, 12-6 (3rd in SEC)

Head-to-Head: 2-2. GW is 2-0 against the Gators at home, but notably 0-2 against them on neutral sites. Back in 1995, they fell to Florida 75-66 as part of the Franklin National Bank Classic in Landover. In 1977, they lost 70-63 in the Vermont Classic. The double figure scorers on the 95 team included Kwame, Alexander Koul, Vaughn Jones, and Shawnta, while the 77 team featured Mike Zagardo, Tom Glenn, Les Anderson, and Bob Lindsay. I guess it's noteworthy that neither loss came by double digits.

That brings us to the last matchup, the 2016 NIT basketball quarterfinal matchup that was played in the Smith Center because Florida's home arena, the Stephen C. O'Connell center, was undergoing renovations. GW shot marginally better at the FT line, but the game was made closer by GW only shooting 60% at the charity stripe (compared to Florida's 88%). Somehow, the Buff & Blue also outrebounded Florida 40-35, something I don't see happening on Saturday. I think the difference maker was that GW's frontcourt just outplayed Florida's. The game was tied with less than two minutes to go, but a big three from TyCav ended up being the dagger in the final minute. Cavanaugh also made four straight FTs at the end to ice the game. He led all scorers with 23 points with four made threes in what was a very efficient shooting performance. KevLar added a double-double with 19 points and 13 rebounds. Pato was the other double figure scorer, posting 13 points and 8 rebounds.




Offensive Efficiency: 22nd (KenPom), 32nd (Bart Torvik), 23rd (Haslametrics), 26th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 11th (KenPom), 10th (Bart Torvik), 14th (Haslametrics), 9th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 42nd (KenPom), 60th (Bart Torvik), 77th (Haslametrics), 28th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 8th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 39th
Rim & 3 Rate: 89% (49th)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Winning Percentage: 90% (1st; 1st in SEC)
Rebounds Per Game: 41.83 RPG (3rd; 2nd in SEC)
Scoring Margin: +15.2 PPG (4th; 1st in SEC)
Fastbreak Points: 15.58 PPG (5th; 1st in SEC)
Scoring Offense: 84.8 PPG (5th; 2nd in SEC)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 29.4% (7th; 2nd in SEC)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 28.1 DRPG (8th; 3rd in SEC)
Rebound Margin: +8.4 RPG (8th; 2nd in SEC)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 13.73 ORPG (13th; 2nd in SEC)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 40% (16th; 2nd in SEC)
Three Pointers Per Game: 9.8 3PM/G (32nd; 2nd in SEC)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 27.4 3PA (41st; 2nd in SEC)
Blocks Per Game: 4.5 BPG (42nd; 7th in SEC)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 54.9% (43rd; 5th in SEC)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 21.9 FTA (48th; 7th in SEC)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 15.9 FTM (51st; 8th in SEC)
Field Goal Percentage: 47.1% (52nd; 5th in SEC)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.39 AST/TO (58th; 6th in SEC)
Assists Per Game: 15.5 APG (58th; 4th in SEC)
Three Point Percentage: 35.6% (86th; 6th in SEC)
Scoring Defense: 69.6 PPG (96th; 4th in SEC)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
None. What a surprise for the national champions!

Projected Starting Lineup:
#0 G Boogie Fland (Sophomore; Bronx, NY) - 13.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 5.1 apg, 1.5 spg; 38% FG, 34% 3-PT, 83% FT per 31.7 mpg/21 GP at Arkansas last season
#1 G Xaivian Lee (Senior; Toronto, Canada) - 16.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 5.5 apg, 1.2 spg; 44% FG, 37% 3-PT, 79% FT per 32.1 mpg/30 GP at Princeton last season
#10 F Thomas Haugh (Junior; New Oxford, PA) - 9.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.2 apg; 49% FG, 34% 3-PT, 79% FT per 24.5 mpg/40 GP at Florida last season
#9 C Rueben Chinyelu (Junior; Enugwu-Agidi, Nigeria) - 6 ppg, 6.6 rpg; 60% FG, 58% FT per 19 mpg/40 GP at Florida last season
#21 F/C Alex Condon (Junior; Perth, Australia) - 10.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.3 bpg; 49% FG, 33% 3-PT, 60% FT per 24.9 mpg/37 GP at Florida last season

Key Bench Players:
#3 C Micah Handlogten (Senior; Lake Norman, NC) - 2.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg; 69% FG, 18% FT per 13.1 mpg/16 GP at Florida last season
#7 G Urban Klavžar (Junior; Domzale, Slovenia) - 3.2 ppg; 36% FG, 34% 3-PT, 67% FT per 9.9 mpg/26 GP at Florida last season
#20 G Isaiah Brown (Sophomore; Orlando, FL) - 1.9 ppg; 52% FG, 38% 3-PT, 44% FT per 3.7 mpg/19 GP at Florida last season
#11 G CJ Ingram (Freshman; Hawthorne, FL)

Key Losses:
Walter Clayton Jr. (Graduated; Lake Wales, FL) - 18.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.2 spg; 45% FG, 39% 3-PT, 88% FT per 32.6 mpg/39 GP
Alijah Martin (Graduated; Summit, MS) - 14.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.5 spg; 45% FG, 35% 3-PT, 76% FT per 30.3 mpg/38 GP
Will Richard (Graduated; Fairburn, GA) - 13.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.7 spg; 49% FG, 36% 3-PT, 84% FT per 31.6 mpg/40 GP

Preview:
It was Howard Hobson who first experimented with a three-point line back in 1945. The former Oregon basketball player and coach was pursuing a doctorate at Columbia, and while he was there he developed the idea for the three pointer. It was first tested in a game between the Lions and the Fordham Rams. You will not be surprised to find out that Fordham lost that game, 73-58 in a year where they won just five games. The more things change, the more they stay the same I guess. The New York Times has a recap of the game in their archives.

Hobson was just one guy that began thinking about shot quality and efficiency during that time. Former North Carolina coach Frank McGuire came out with a book titled Defensive Basketball, which discussed the importance of possession and turnover differential for a team. Dean Smith, who joined McGuire's staff as an assistant and later led the Tar Heels in the 1960s went even further, tracking possessions adjusted for game speed. Additionally, he built upon the ideas of his former boss by tracking a team's points-per-possession (PPP) another modern metric that is still used by Ken Pomeroy and others to track efficiency ratings for teams.

There's probably many other guys ahead of their time that looked at the game from an analytic lens similar to what we see today, but this isn't meant to be a full history lesson. When it comes to active head coaches, Kyle Smith is considered to be one of the biggest proponents of analytics. He brought his "moneyball" approach to Columbia, 65 years after Hobson first tested out the three-point line. Sports Illustrated came out with a nice article back in 2021 that provided a closer look at how Smith was winning at Washington State. When the Cougars were in the Pac-12, it was considered to be one of, if not the toughest power conference job. He brought in unheralded recruits, but found the right fits for his system. Smith has since moved on to Stanford.

As you would expect, several of Smith's assistants have become head coaches, and they have carried over his data-driven approach to their new jobs. Kevin Hovde is now leading Columbia, as the Lions wisely looked back to when they were performing at a higher level. Mike Magpayo is nearby at Fordham, although he clearly doesn't have the roster this year to contend. Todd Golden is by far the most prominent of Smith's assistants to ascent to head coach. The Phoenix, Arizona native first met Smith as a player at St. Mary's (California, not the Maryland one we are playing next), when Smith was an assistant in Moraga. Golden then served on his staff at both Columbia and San Francisco, with a stint with Bruce Pearl at Auburn in between. He eventually took over the Dons program and went 57-36 in three years, helping San Fran make the NCAA tournament in his final year. Chris Gerlufsen seems to have done a decent job keeping the San Francisco program afloat.

It certainly felt like an unconventional hire for Florida to pursue Golden in their coaching search, given he has been a west coast guy for much of his life. The hire has definitely panned out, with the Gators making the NIT in year 1, the NCAA tournament in year 2, and winning it all of course last year. Take a look at Florida's ShotQuality metrics, and you can see that analytics are being embraced. Currently, they take 89% of their attempts either at the rim or from 3, good for 49th nationally. Last year's championship squad ranked second nationally in offensive shot quality. Picked sixth in the SEC preseason poll, the Gators went a perfect 13-0 in OOC play and did not take a loss after February. Funnily enough, the last loss was against Mike White, their former head coach that's now head of the Georgia Bulldogs. Florida's performance was that much more impressive given the controversy that surrounded Golden for much of the year. In an article from the University of Florida student newspaper, Golden was accused of sexual harassment and stalking, which is disturbing given he's married. Ultimately, there was no evidence found that he violated Title IX, and winning a championship will build a lot of goodwill with both the school and fanbase.

There's definitely a lot to replace, as three of Florida's four double figure scorers graduated/moved on to the NBA. That starts with Walter Clayton Jr., who led the SEC in total points scored over the course of the season. Clayton was hyper efficient from all over the court and was equally as good as a facilitator, ranking 53rd nationally in assists per game. Watching him grow as a player from his time at Iona under Rick Pitino was impressive. Both Alijah Martin and Will Richard, who like Clayton stepped up from the mid-major level at Florida Atlantic and Belmont respectively, were pivotal as 3-and-D guys. Martin ranked 92nd nationally in steals, while Richard was 38th.

With the trio of guards moving on, Florida's strength this year shifts to their frontcourt. Expect a lot of the strengths of previous Golden teams to carry over to this year in Gainesville. The Gators are 14th nationally in KenPom's height/experience metric, and they are second nationally in offensive rebound percentage. Should their OR% remain strong during SEC play, that would make it three straight years they are in the top 10 in that category. Defensively, they have really shut teams down with their length. They don't give up a lot of threes, they make teams play side-to-side, and given their size it's no surprise they are great at protecting the rim. This year's team has a few more weaknesses - they cough up the ball at a below average rate and they have been extremely bricky from 3 (just 27% - 344th nationally). Defensively, Golden's teams have struggled to turn teams over and keep teams off the FT line. Florida has not been great in both metrics.

Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu in particular will be very difficult to keep off the glass. Condon is a native of Australia who ranked 43rd nationally in rebounds (he was particularly good on the offensive end), and 81st in blocks last year. He is a good passer for his size, but is prone to turning the ball over as well. Chinyelu, a Nigerian, began his career under Smith at Wazzu. Last year, he was 72nd in rebounds himself and averages a double-double this season (10 ppg, 11.2 rpg). He is called for a lot of fouls - in all but one game he has picked up at least three personals. There's been a lot of talk about playing Slim and Luke together, and we may finally see that on Saturday going up against 6'11" Condon and 6'10" Chinyelu. Neither will stretch the floor, but the two have combined to average 25 ppg to go with over 20 rebounds a game. Sheesh.

Add in leading scorer Thomas Haugh (18.6 ppg), who is 6'9" himself, and Florida is absolutely gigantic up front. Haugh is a good rebounder himself (7 rpg) and is one of the better shooters on the team (35% from 3). It is worth noting that he has an assist to turnover ratio of under 1 on the year though. He has finished in double figures in every game this season.

If you thought Florida's size ended there, you would be mistaken. Coming off the bench is 7'1" center Micah Handlogten who began his career at Marshall. If the North Carolina native had more playing time, he could probably average over 10 boards a game himself as well. I'm surprised he's not more of a rim protecting presence given his height (he was for the Herd). Like Chinyelu, he is prone to picking up fouls which is why he doesn't play more. Interestingly, he has scored just six total points in their last six games after putting up 28 between their first two games against Arizona and North Florida.

Two more international guys, Viktor Mikić and Olivier Rioux round out the bigs rotation. Just like Nemanja, Viktor hails from Serbia and he stands 6'11" tall. The sophomore is not a primary rotation guy, but will see run if the game is not that close. Rioux is probably not going to play much (if at all) but it's crazy that he's 7'9", making him the tallest player in college basketball history. He was already six foot 10 at age 12 and nearly seven and a half feet tall at 15, and I can't imagine it's easy being that tall as a teenager. Rioux's parents and older brother are tall (all over six feet) but Olivier is substantially taller than all of them. I'm not really sure that Florida needed to have four centers on their roster, but the depth is certainly solid up front.

The backcourt will be spearheaded by transfer portalers Johnuel 'Boogie' Fland (Arkansas) and Xaivian Lee (Princeton), two guys who could not come from more different backgrounds. Fland was a 4-star, top 25 recruit out of HS who originally signed with Kentucky before following Calipari to Arkansas. Fland is a high volume guy, but just isn't as efficient as he should be (career 38% shooter from the field). He averaged over five dimes a game in Fayetteville, but has played a smaller ball-handling role for Golden's team. Fland is a very good defender along the perimeter.

Lee is from Toronto, opting to transfer to Gainesville after being the alpha on some good Princeton squads. He orchestrates the offense (led the Ivy/was top 50 in assists) and rebounds well, but he has just not settled in yet for the Gators. There's a clip circulating on Twitter of Lee calling his number on a jump shot and airballing it, which sums up his season so far (just 26% from the field and 20% from 3). He is undoubtedly talented - Lee had two games last year for Princeton where he finished with a triple-double against Big 5 opponents Penn and St. Joe's - but consistency has been a problem and it seems the fit is not there as of yet.

Slovenian guard Urban Klavžar and Orlando product Isaiah Brown will back them up. Klavžar appeared in 26 games last year and is one of the better shooters on the team - 37% from 3 on the year on over five attempts a game (and 94% from the FT line). Over 76% of his attempts come from deep. Per EvanMiya, he is Florida's weakest defender, and the only primary rotation player with a net negative DBPR rating. Brown has seen roughly ten minutes per game or so, but his efficiencies are down from last year. He has good size though and like many on the team rebounds really well when he's in the game. Older brother AJ Brown, who comes over from Ohio hasn't played on the year. He had surgery on his shoulder in the offseason and has been cleared to play, but I guess Golden doesn't feel he's ready yet. Considering Florida's tough start to the year shooting the 3 ball, the elder Brown could help there, as he's a career 37% from deep. AJ had 13 points for Ohio against GW in that 2OT thriller at the Baha Mar MTE a couple years back. Sacramento State transfer Alex Kovatchev was honestly a random get from the transfer portal, but I guess he was always expected to be a deeper option. He did rebound well for the Hornets, so I guess the fit makes sense in that respect but that's about it.

Freshmen and Florida natives CJ Ingram and Alex Lloyd round out the roster. Both players were rated in the top 50 of their class per 247Sports. Ingram has been more of a factor in the rotation, a punishing wing who can get downhill well and stretch the floor. Lloyd has rebounded decently, but hasn't shot the ball particularly well when given the chance.

What happened in the Delaware game no doubt reduces the excitement a bit going into the game. Golden was interviewed by Jon Rothstein earlier in the week, and he called GW 'a very good team'. He then proceeded to say that the Gators expect to beat the three teams they play after (St. Francis, which is leaving D1 after this year, followed by Colgate and Dartmouth). I'm sure he's putting the Revs in the category with those other teams after the Delaware match. Rebounding is going to be a major problem. To stay in the game, GW is going to have to play like Florida State did in their game against UF. The Seminoles had no chance on the boards - they were outrebounded by 22, but they played solid D and made enough shots to only lose by 2. Of course, after what happened last night, there are now major questions about the offense too and how GW will score if the threes don't fall. One issue that I saw was that GW very rarely looked to make the extra pass when a player got to the rim. The player that drove would always end up attempting the shot which was a miss. Hopefully the passing/off-ball cutting is better on Saturday afternoon.

Projected Score: Florida 88, GW 76. 14% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik forecasts a 20% chance at a W. ESPN predicts a 16.7% chance for GW to move to 9-3.
 

I have an extra ticket for the game if someone wants to hop on a flight down to Florida.

Free to a GW fan ($1,000,000 donation to GW's NIL fund for a Gators fan).

GW0509 wrote:

I have an extra ticket for the game if someone wants to hop on a flight down to Florida.

Free to a GW fan ($1,000,000 donation to GW's NIL fund for a Gators fan).

Extra ticket no longer available. Did not go to a Gators fan.

"Do you believe in miracles?"

MVCOLONIAL wrote:

"Do you believe in miracles?"

DmV, you had me at....

"It was Howard Hobson who first experimented with a three-point line back in 1945."

Wow, you are such an exceptional storyteller.

Any version of Geedub and FL teams can show up tomorrow. Would love to know what the guys were thinking on their flight to FL

Alum1 wrote:

We struggle on the glass against smaller teams and these guys will be tossing us around on both ends. !

Do we struggle on the glass against smaller teams?  We’re top 55 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding.

That said, this FL frontcourt is a whole different challenge.

I just want to see us play with a chip on our shoulder and be aggressive.  And finish shots around the rim - seems like we’re due some positive regression on that front

Ty Bevins 15/3/3
Revs by a trillion

Anyone know why the tip is delayed to 2:52?