DC Native wrote:

Last time we beat Dayton on the road was in 2005, so a win would be huge. I think we’ve got a good shot, but I wouldn’t put any money on it.

ESPN gives us a 32.5% chance to win, which sounds about right to me.

For vibes reasons needed to post the iconic finish: Come for the Carl Elliott steal and 37 foot runner to win it, stay for Hobbs crying



 

The Ross-Man! wrote:

DC Native wrote:

Last time we beat Dayton on the road was in 2005, so a win would be huge. I think we’ve got a good shot, but I wouldn’t put any money on it.

ESPN gives us a 32.5% chance to win, which sounds about right to me.

For vibes reasons needed to post the iconic finish: Come for the Carl Elliott steal and 37 foot runner to win it, stay for Hobbs crying

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTUdqiA3Dsg

Thanks for the great memories! I watched the video you linked about a half dozen times.

Last edited by DC Native (1/04/2026 10:54 pm)

Dayton Flyers
Date: Tuesday January 6th, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: UD Arena (Dayton, OH)
TV: CBSSN
Ranks: 79th (KenPom), 79th (Bart Torvik), 85th (Haslametrics), 59th (EvanMiya), 70th (Sports Illustrated)
2024-25 Record: 23-11, 12-6 (T-3rd in A10)
2025-26 Projected Record: 20-11, 11-7 (T-4th in A10)
NET Ranking: 93rd (Q2 Game)

Head-to-Head: 20-23. The two teams have alternated wins and losses over the past four meetings, with GW winning the games in Foggy Bottom and UD holding serve on their home court. UD Arena has been a house of horrors for the Buff & Blue - you'd have to go back to 2016 to find the last time GW was able to keep a game at Dayton within single digits, let alone win.

In last year's meeting, GW won 82-62 at home although the game was a lot closer than the final score indicates. The Revs (without Jun Buchanan) were red hot shooting from distance, while Dayton was decidedly not. GW knocked down 15 threes compared to just four for the Flyers. For the game, UD shot under 40% from the field and finished with more turnovers than assists. CJ (as he's known to do) got off to a great start, putting up 13 points in the first five minutes of the game alone.

Dayton made their run in the second half, cutting the lead down to three midway through the second half. GW put the game away though after the final media timeout, outscoring UD 13-2 in the last four minutes. That included back-to-back-to-back made threes from Gerald, Tricky, and CJ. Christian led the team with 23 points (with five made threes), Gerald had 21, and Tricky had 17 off the bench.

Drumgoole made a three to beat the halftime buzzer. If I remember correctly, Max did the same thing in the previous home game. There's just something with GW and game winners/buzzer beaters against Dayton at the Smith Center. In addition to the clip The Ross-Man posted above, Wynton Witherspoon made a winning three with two seconds left in 2008. In 2013, Zeek Armwood had a dunk with two seconds left to win the game in overtime. In 2015, JoeMac rebounded a blocked Kethan Savage layup and put it in with a second left to win yet another game in OT.

Offensive Efficiency: 128th (KenPom), 140th (Bart Torvik), 145th (Haslametrics), 105th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 38th (KenPom), 36th (Bart Torvik), 35th (Haslametrics), 30th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 158th (KenPom), 162nd (Bart Torvik), 112th (Haslametrics), 178th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 103rd
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 27th
Rim & 3 Rate: 91% (19th)

Strengths (2025-26 Season):
Turnover Margin: +5.4 TO (8th; 1st in A10)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 16.53 TO/G (10th; 1st in A10)
Steals Per Game: 9.7 SPG (22nd; 1st in A10)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 19.4 FTM (24th; 3rd in A10)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 26.3 FTA (26th; 3rd in A10)
Fouls Per Game: 15.8 PF/G (57th; 4th in A10)
Winning Percentage: 73.3% (70th; 4th in A10)
Blocks Per Game: 4.3 BPG (78th; 4th in A10)
Scoring Defense: 69.2 PPG (83rd; 5th in A10)

Weaknesses (2025-26 Season):
Rebound Margin: -2.2 RPG (289th; 14th in A10)
Bench Points Per Game: 18.6 PPG (292nd; 13th in A10)
Rebounds Per Game: 33.4 RPG (301st; 14th in A10)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 36.3% (322nd; 13th in A10)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 9 ORPG (335th; 14th in A10)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#0 G Javon Bennett (Senior; Orlando, FL) - 11.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.5 spg; 44% FG, 39% 3-PT, 79% FT per 31 mpg/34 GP at Dayton last season
#2 G De'Shayne Montgomery (Junior; Fort Lauderdale, FL) - 6.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.1 spg; 41% FG, 25% 3-PT, 71% FT per 15.7 mpg/17 GP at Georgia last season
#4 G Jordan Derkack (Senior; Colonia, NJ) - 5.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.5 apg; 36% FG, 25% 3-PT, 74% FT per 17.1 mpg/31 GP at Rutgers last season
#7 G Keonte Jones (Graduate Student; Madison, WI) - 13.1 ppg, 9 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.8 spg, 1.3 bpg; 51% FG, 38% 3-PT, 68% FT per 30.8 mpg/33 GP at Cal State Northridge last season
#24 F Jacob Conner (Senior; Dayton, OH) - 2.7 ppg, 1.1 rpg; 39% FG, 30% 3-PT, 59% FT per 12.1 mpg/28 GP at Dayton last season

Key Bench Players:
#10 G Bryce Heard (Sophomore; Chicago, IL) - 1.2 ppg; 32% FG, 20% 3-PT, 67% FT per 6.3 mpg/24 GP at NC State last season
#3 F Jaiun Simon (RS Sophomore; Mableton, GA) - 1.2 ppg, 1.5 rpg; 38% FG, 21% 3-PT, 55% FT per 7 mpg/32 GP at Dayton last season
#50 G Sean Pouedet (Freshman; Machelen, Belgium)
#29 F Amaël L'Etang (Sophomore; Bastia, France) - 7.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1 bpg; 51% FG, 34% 3-PT, 64% FT per 16.9 mpg/34 GP at Dayton last season** (will start over Conner if healthy)
#1 F Malcolm Thomas (RS Freshman; Mitchellville, MD) - DNP at Villanova last season** (missed last two games due to ankle injury)

Key Losses:
Nate Santos (Graduated; Geneva, IL) - 14.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.6 apg; 44% FG, 42% 3-PT, 74% FT per 33.3 mpg/34 GP
Enoch Cheeks (Graduated; Providence, RI) - 13.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2 apg, 1.8 spg; 47% FG, 36% 3-PT, 80% FT per 33.7 mpg/33 GP
Malachi Smith (Transferred to Connecticut; Bronx, NY) - 10.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 5.3 apg, 1 spg; 42% FG, 38% 3-PT, 72% FT per 27.8 mpg/33 GP
Zed Key (Graduated; Bay Shore, NY) - 8.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1 bpg; 58% FG, 79% FT per 19.2 mpg/32 GP
Posh Alexander (Graduated; Brooklyn, NY) - 5.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.1 spg; 38% FG, 29% 3-PT, 89% FT per 19 mpg/29 GP

Preview:
Over the last five years, it's been next to impossible to guess how an Anthony Grant coached Dayton squad will fare. Anyone saying otherwise would be lying. Taking a look at KenPom's preseason versus final ranks, the Flyers have followed a season of underperformance with a year where they overperform. Since the COVID year (2020-21), the difference between the pre and postseason ranks has been by at least 30 spots:

Season     Pre Rank     Post Rank     Difference
2020-21        49                  87                -38
2021-22        84                  45                +39
2022-23        24                  79                -55
2023-24        69                  32                +37
2024-25        27                  77                -50
2025-26        54                  ??                 ??

Dayton entered this year preseason #54, meaning that the Flyers would have to effectively be a top 25 team for the pattern to continue. While that seems unlikely, Grant has done a solid job at his alma mater. He's finished over .500 in the A10 the last seven seasons. Of course, expectations at a place like Dayton are higher with the resources that they have. The one data point against Grant is the lack of tournament appearances. He got to the NCAA tournament in 2023-24 and even won a game (knocking off Nevada before falling to Arizona) but that's been it. You can add one in 2019-20, a team that would have likely been a 1 seed had COVID not derailed things. Still, this is a program that saw freaking Archie Miller get to the Big Dance four years in a row in the mid-2010s.

While a lot of things have changed in college basketball that's prevented mid-majors from getting in, Dayton doesn't have the same excuse most teams in the A10 have. They are actually able to schedule marquee games in the non-conference to give them a shot at an at-large. That's their only shot, because they sure as hell aren't winning the conference tournament. UD last won the A10 tourney during the 2002-03 season. GW has won it twice since then. That will never not be funny to me.

Last year's team always felt a bit overrated. When you lose a player like DaRon Holmes, a regression was inevitable. During OOC play, UD defeated Northwestern, Connecticut, and Marquette, adding to the sizable list of power conference opponents they've defeated in recent years (this year, they have beat Florida State, Georgetown, and Marquette while playing BYU close). Unfortunately, things unraveled during conference play with UD falling to both GW and Bona by 20+ points on the road.

The Flyers brought in two productive power conference transfers in Posh Alexander and Zed Key, but neither really matched all the hype they were getting in the offseason. Alexander showcased his defensive prowess on-ball, but was ineffective offensively and didn't even start. While Key was able to get to the FT line and provide some rim protection, staying on the court proved to be challenging. Ultimately, the other players that departed didn't move the needle either. Malachi Smith was excellent as a lead guard (42nd nationally in assists per game, 44th in assist/turnover ratio) but he probably shouldn't have led the squad in usage (24.4% of possessions, per KenPom). Nate Santos was a good shooter/scorer, but was below average defensively. Enoch Cheeks was a stat sheet stuffer and did a lot of things well, but was more of a complementary option than an alpha on the team.

Like much of Grant's tenure, Dayton shot the ball well, limited the turnovers, got to the line quite frequently, and showcased good ball movement. The problem with last year's team came on the defensive side of the ball. UD finished 148th in defensive efficiency, which was the worst mark since Grant's first year. Despite having a guy like Alexander, there was no one thing that made Dayton stand out on that end. The biggest issue may have been locking down the paint, where the Flyers ranked a mediocre 246th nationally in defensive 2P%, per KenPom. Key was not an intimidating presence at the rim compared to a guy like Holmes, and things did not get better when he sat. It's funny, because that's the problem with the current GW team on defense. The Revs rank around the same in efficiency (~150th) and struggle to defend the paint (257th in defensive 2P%).

Dayton has a solid mix of returners and newcomers on their roster this season. In general, it feels more like the kind of team Grant would want. The clear leader this season is Javon Bennett, who may be small in stature at 5'10" but plays with a big heart. The Orlando native began his career at Merrimack before playing his last three years for the Flyers. He's always been a pest defensively (averages 1.8 spg over his career) and is a great passer as well (an assist to turnover ratio of around 2). However, last year he really emerged as a strong shooter on decent volume. Bennett drilled 39% of his triples, which may prove to be an outlier. He's at just 32% this year, which is more in line with his career averages. That doesn't mean that GW should give him space to get shots off though. Given that he's finished in double figures in all but two games this year, Bennett will likely get there tomorrow with his shot volume (nearly 14 attempts a game) and minutes played (72nd nationally). He's also a great FT shooter at 92% (23rd nationally). GW will need to ensure it's not an efficient game from him though. Bennett had five points in last year's game (and nearly fouled out).

Bennett stands fifteen inches shorter than his partner up front, Amaël L'Etang. The Frenchman had a strong freshman campaign. He displayed the ability to score at all three levels (51% from the field, 34% from 3) while rebounding at a good clip and providing a bit of rim protection. L'Etang did not score in last year's game, but I would not expect that to happen again tomorrow if he suits up. Like Bennett, he's finished in double figures in all but two games this year. L'Etang suffered an injury in practice last week and has not appeared in a conference game so far. His availability will be a major swing factor.

In L'Etang's absence, hometown hero Jacob Conner has started at the 5. The 6'10" big played two years at Marshall before coming to UD. Conner is a stretch big, but has not been particularly efficient over his four year career. He does provide a bit of value on the defensive side of the ball. The same is true for sophomore Jaiun Simon, who scored two points in nine minutes in last season's meeting. Simon possesses good length along the wing, but had a -2.26 OBPR per EvanMiya last season. While he is still somewhat rough shooting the ball, he did score 11 against Fordham on Wednesday by getting to the basket.

Five key players enter the fold from the portal. De'Shayne Montgomery (Mount St. Mary's/Georgia) is currently second on the team in scoring (54% from the field) and is the team's best three point shooter by percentage (40% on four attempts a game). He's a tremendous athlete with some serious hops taking the ball to the basket. Montgomery also rebounds and moves the ball well. Defensively, he's currently seventh nationally in steals at nearly 3 a game. In general, he's been a highly impactful player, outside a random dud game against Liberty. Montgomery is coming off an impressive 20 point, 7 steal performance against Loyola. It goes without saying that GW will need to take care of the ball tomorrow when he's in the game.

Keonte Jones (CSUN) joined the team late in the offseason. Quite frankly, I'm surprised that Dayton took a chance on him - especially with the kind of guy Grant is. To those that don't know, Jones was charged with sexual assault of a 16 year old girl when he was 18. Charges were dropped in late July, which was when Dayton swooped in. Earlier in the offseason, I believe he had committed to USC/Musselman, so he's undoubtedly talented. Jones does a bit of everything. On the team, he's fourth in scoring, second in rebounding, third in assists, and second in steals. He can score at all three levels (36% from 3, but on low volume). He's only 61% from the line, but otherwise there's not many holes in his game. Stopping Montgomery and Jones will be key against the Flyers. Adam Njie (Iona) was expected to make an impact in the backcourt as well, but was involved in a gambling-related matter last year and has not been cleared by the NCAA to play. I guess the NIL wasn't enough. There's so much with this sport that needs fixing right now.

Jordan Derkack (Merrimack/Rutgers) reunites with Bennett after an inefficient season last year in the Big Ten. Derkack is not an efficient offensive player (he's a career 25% from 3) but he rebounds at a good clip, is a valuable playmaker, and defends well. It would not be the worst idea for GW to force him to be more of a scorer than a playmaker tomorrow. Bryce Heard (NC State) was a 3-star combo guard out of HS. He got some run during his year in Raleigh but was inefficient. He's continued to come off the bench at Dayton and has been a bit better with more playing time. Heard's length is a net positive, but he's been UD's least impactful defender (-1.07 DBPR, per EvanMiya). He had back-to-back double figure games against Georgetown and BYU during Dayton's MTE in late November so the potential remains there. Malcolm Thomas (Villanova) did not play last year, but gives Dayton further depth up front. Thomas is at his best when he's near the rim, and his per minute scoring averages is quite impressive. Unfortunately for the Flyers, he injured his ankle against Liberty and has been sidelined since. If both L'Etang and Thomas continue to be sidelined, it will be difficult for Dayton to hang with the better front courts in the league.

Rounding out Dayton's rotation is a pair of freshmen in Damon Friery and Sean Pouedet. Friery is a Cleveland product who will likely be a spot option for UD this year. He adds an additional rebounding presence. Pouedet joined Dayton at the end of the Fall semester and is apparently automatically eligible in A10 play. Again, I'm not sure I'm a fan that teams can just add pieces during the season. How do you even assess a team's resume at the end of the year? Pouedet hails from Belgium, where he averaged over eight points and six assists in the BNXT League overseas. I guess he's the Njie replacement, although he's less experienced with CBB. I'd imagine he's a low usage option the rest of the year.

Playing at Dayton is never easy, so I think the minimum goal should be to stay competitive. If both L'Etang and Thomas remain sidelined, a win should absolutely be a possibility. The Flyers don't crash the glass on offense, but GW will need to have the guards stay in front of their backcourt and not let them get to the hoop. This Flyer team plays a bit faster tempo-wise than previous Grant squads. Dayton is relatively mediocre from distance outside of Montgomery. The Revs have been more prone to committing fouls compared to previous CC teams, so keeping Slim out of foul trouble will also be a major key.

On offense, the big thing will be taking care of the ball. Dayton is top ten nationally in defensive turnover percentage. That's not traditionally been a staple of Grant teams, but this year's team has been really good in that department. Has the team learned from the McNeese game? Dayton will concede looks from deep, so it will be up to GW to knock down the threes that they surrender. It would be good to get Bubu going on offense since he's currently not scored in conference play yet.

Projected Score: Dayton 80, GW 77. 42% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik forecasts a 38% chance at a W. ESPN predicts a 34.2% chance for GW to move to 12-4.
 

Great preview, as always Piranha! 

You hit on what I think are the key - taking care of the ball, not fouling, and knocking down the threes. Fouls will be especially important because Dayton excels at drawing fouls and tends to get a very favorable whistle at home. 

That said, even  with L’Etang, I think we have a better team than Dayton this year. I’m looking for us to make a statement tonight.

Was about to ask Piranha to add a section on how to pirate cbssportsnetwork  as incredibly it is not included in any of the 56 subscriptions I’ve been duped into. Then Fubo rescued me with a free 5-day free trial.  In case anyone else is in the Bermuda Triangle of cable and streaming……

L’Entang and Thomas are both OUT for Dayton tonight. Castro better be ready to capitalize.

Huge opportunity to snap the 20-year streak.

Not that he was playing much (although I think he should be playing more), but the A-10  player availability report has Bevins as out.  

Damn. Castro just buried that UD player with a pick. I like that attitude!

5 turnovers already, including a couple of unforced turnovers.