ESPN's matchup predictor only gives us a 16.2% chance to win @SLU, which would drop us to 4-4 in conference. However, the ESPN matchup predictor currently has us favored in every game thereafter, with the sole exception of @VCU. This includes us being comfortable favorites vs. Mason and Dayton at home. That would put us at 13-5. I'm not saying that happens, as I think a couple upset losses is likely based on what we've seen so far. But a Top 4 finish is still there for the taking, if the team can maintain their focus.

I guess I'll be the one to say it...GW has never won at SLU.  0-10 and counting.

SLU is not only unbeaten at home this season, but nobody has come within single digits.  And of course, we did win last season's game so there's no way we're sneaking up on these guys.

This won't be easy but at least GW will enter the game with some confidence rather than a three game conference losing streak.

I think the only way we win this one is if we start off hot and/or they start off slow and we are able to build up an early lead. I think we play very well with a lead, and I have high confidence that we can weather any comeback attempt, even against a team like SLU. If SLU has the early lead, though, I think we are toast. I have not seen any evidence yet this year that we can mount a successful comeback against anyone, much less a team like SLU.

Any news on travel. Getting out today?
 

good detective work

Saint Louis Billikens
Date: Tuesday January 27th, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Chaifetz Arena (St. Louis, MO)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 24th (KenPom), 21st (Bart Torvik), 16th (Haslametrics), 24th (EvanMiya)
2024-25 Record: 19-15, 11-7 (T-5th in A10)
2025-26 Projected Record: 28-3, 16-2 (1st in A10)
NET Ranking: 19th (Q1 Game)

Head-to-Head: 10-14. Last year's 67-61 victory against SLU snapped a seven game losing streak in the series. Despite losing so many games in a row against the Billikens previously, none of the games felt hopeless like they did when GW played Dayton or VCU during that period. Five of the seven losses were within 10 points, although of course GW has notably not ever won at SLU (0-10 all time). The closest they've come is a three point loss back in 2016.

In last year's 67-61 victory, GW was able to build up a 14 point halftime lead behind mostly poor shot-making from the Billikens. SLU put up just 22 points, so it was less about GW really putting up points. For the game, the two teams combined to make just 10 threes, which feels like the bare minimum number of makes for each team in a game this year. Saint Louis did cut into the deficit in the last 2.5 minutes of the game, as GW missed a number of free throws and did not make a field goal during that time but it was otherwise a relatively comfortable lead for the home team throughout. It also helped that GW took three times the number of FTs as SLU. Slim Castro finished with 21 points and 9 rebounds, while CJ added 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists in the backcourt.

The last meeting at Chaifetz was probably the best chance GW had to pick off SLU at their place given Travis Ford was effectively a lame duck coach at that point of the season. Both teams were a dismal 3-11 in conference play in a matchup between two teams that played absolutely no defense whatsoever. Kind of like GW did at home last year, SLU built up a 13 point halftime lead and while the Revs made a run in the second half it was not enough to overcome the deficit. It helped that the Billikens made just one three after halftime after knocking down 12 in the first half and did not make a shot from the field in the last 7.5 minutes. Both teams shot over 50% from the field, and made a combined 24 threes. JB led all scorers with 34 points (along with 5 boards and 6 assists), knocking down seven threes. Max came off the bench to put in 19 points/5 rebounds himself, and Jacoi added 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists.

Offensive Efficiency: 39th (KenPom), 20th (Bart Torvik), 17th (Haslametrics), 30th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 23rd (KenPom), 29th (Bart Torvik), 19th (Haslametrics), 24th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 26th (KenPom), 26th (Bart Torvik), 21st (Haslametrics), 20th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 32nd
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 152nd
Rim & 3 Rate: 96% (1st)

Strengths (2025-26 Season):
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 31.75 DRPG (1st; 1st in A10)
Field Goal Percentage: 35.5% (1st; 1st in A10)
Scoring Margin: +24.6 PPG (1st; 1st in A10)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 60.9% (3rd; 1st in A10)
Field Goal Percentage: 52.1% (3rd; 1st in A10)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 26.5% (3rd; 1st in A10)
Fastbreak Points: 18.95 PPG (4th; 1st in A10)
Winning Percentage: 95% (5th; 1st in A10)
Assists Per Game: 19.4 APG (6th; 1st in A10)
Rebound Margin: +11.2 RPG (6th; 1st in A10)
Rebounds Per Game: 43.05 RPG (6th; 1st in A10)
Three Point Percentage: 39.6% (8th; 1st in A10)
Bench Points Per Game: 36.05 PPG (9th; 3rd in A10)
Scoring Offense: 91.5 PPG (9th; 1st in A10)
Three Pointers Per Game: 11 3PM/G (13th; 1st in A10)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.6 AST/TO (31st; 1st in A10)
Scoring Defense: 66.9 PPG (31st; 2nd in A10)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 27.8 3PA (50th; 1st in A10)
Free Throw Percentage: 75.4% (68th; 4th in A10)

Weaknesses (2025-26 Season):
None. Look at just how many categories the Billikens rank in the top 10 nationally, including three where they are tops in the country. Yeah, they're that good.

Projected Starting Lineup:
#3 G Trey Green (RS Sophomore; Charlotte, NC) - 5 ppg, 1 apg; 40% FG, 38% 3-PT, 100% FT per 11 mpg/9 GP at Xavier last season
#13 G Dion Brown (Senior; Great Barrington, MA) - 7.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.5 apg; 44% FG, 35% 3-PT, 74% FT per 25.6 mpg/31 GP at Boston College last season
#1 G Quentin Jones (Junior; Chicago, IL) - 16.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.3 spg; 46% FG, 36% 3-PT, 77% FT per 35.4 mpg/31 GP at Northern Illinois last season
#4 G Amari McCottry (Sophomore; Milwaukee, WI) - 4.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1 apg, 1 spg; 53% FG, 39% 3-PT, 59% FT per 14.5 mpg/31 GP at Saint Louis last season
#21 C Robbie Avila (Senior; Oak Forest, IL) - 17.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 4 apg, 1.2 spg; 49% FG, 36% 3-PT, 75% FT per 34 mpg/31 GP at Saint Louis last season

Key Bench Players:
#9 F Ishan Sharma (Sophomore; Milton, Canada) - 3.4 ppg, 1.3 rpg; 33% FG, 33% 3-PT, 94% FT per 12.8 mpg/29 GP at Virginia last season
#11 F Brady Dunlap (RS Sophomore; Studio City, CA) - 5.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg; 47% FG, 38% 3-PT, 83% FT per 16.5 mpg/10 GP at St. John's last season
#0 G Kellen Thames (RS Junior; St. Louis, MO) - 6.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg; 52% FG, 30% 3-PT, 65% FT per 16.4 mpg/17 GP at Saint Louis last season
#25 F Paul Otieno (Senior; Nairobi, Kenya) - 13 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.1 apg, 2.1 bpg; 59% FG, 38% 3-PT, 81% FT per 31.1 mpg/32 GP at Quinnipiac last season

Key Losses:
Gibson Jimerson (Graduated; Richmond, VA) - 17.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg; 43% FG, 36% 3-PT, 83% FT per 37.8 mpg/34 GP
Isaiah Swope (Graduated; Newburgh, IN) - 17.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.1 spg; 43% FG, 36% 3-PT, 76% FT per 36.7 mpg/33 GP
Kobe Johnson (Graduated; Canton, OH) - 6.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.8 apg; 55% FG, 38% 3-PT, 81% FT per 30.6 mpg/31 GP

Preview:
At the end of Ratatouille, Anton Ego comes to the realization that not everyone can become a great artist, but a great artist can come from anywhere. That pretty much holds true in any industry or profession, but in the college basketball world I wish more athletic directors would realize this - especially at the lower levels. It feels like there's too many retread hires who had their success during a different era of college basketball. What do you have to lose taking a chance on someone that has proved that they can win at a non-D1 job with little to no resources? Many of those guys are generally hungry to prove themselves and are up for the challenge.

Josh Schertz is a great example that proves a great coach can come from anywhere. The 50 year old spent 13 years at Lincoln Memorial - a D2 school - doing nothing but winning. I don't care what the level is, if you're winning 83% of your games that's incredibly impressive. LMU finished at the top of the South Atlantic Conference in nine of his final 11 years coaching there. Credit Indiana State's previous AD Sherard Clinkscales (yup that's his actual name - he's at UIC now so I'm sure our AD Lipitz knows him) for making an out-of-the-box hire that paid major dividends. Two seasons ago, the Sycamores won 32 games, the most seen in Terre Haute since the 1978-79 season which featured a pair of NBA players in Larry Bird (you may have heard of him) and Carl Nicks on the squad.

Sometimes timing is everything during coaching carousel season. I remember seeing reports that Schertz was approached by Louisville following the Kenny Payne disaster, but by that time SLU had already secured a deal with him to become their next coach. At 19-15, Schertz's first year at the Lou may have been considered a slight disappointment, but he needed a year to get going at ISU as well (he won just 11 games in year #1). Additionally, the Billikens were short on depth, losing transfers like Josiah Dotzler and AJ Casey to injury most of the year, and Larry Hughes II stepped away from the program mid-year. Despite that, SLU remained competitive for most of conference play, losing just twice by more than 10 points from January onwards.

This offseason, the Billikens did lose a few key guys in Gibson Jimerson, Isaiah Swope, and Kobe Johnson. Jimerson, SLU's all-time leading scorer, was finally forced to retire at the end of last season after playing in college for over a decade. He led the A10 in threes made per game + attempted, and was 81st nationally in points per game. Given the limited depth Schertz had to work with, Jimerson rarely came off the floor (3rd nationally in mpg). The same was true for Swope, who was 15th in the same metric and was just behind Jimerson in every three point shooting category. As a GW fan, I will always appreciate Swope for his eight point surge that helped SLU force overtime and eventually defeat Duquesne in their regular season finale. That result helped GW get the #7 seed in the A10 tournament and a more favorable draw. Johnson was more of an unheralded guy, but the times I watched SLU he quite frequently made big plays for them.

The publications that placed SLU outside the top two during the preseason likely put too much stock in the way SLU performed last year instead of considering what kind of coach Josh Schertz is. Obviously, the first thing that pops out is the explosive offense. The Billikens were an efficient shooting team last year itself - 15th in effective field goal percentage and third in two-point field goal percentage - while playing an analytically sound style of basketball that emphasizes only twos and threes. A lack of ball security and offensive rebounding hampered the offense at times, but SLU is much improved in both categories this season (especially the latter). If there's a weakness, it's that they don't get to the line particularly often, although that's partly by design. This is a squad that emphasizes taking jumpers and has a stupid number of shotmakers that can burn opposing teams. However, I do wonder if an off night from everyone will leave SLU vulnerable. Getting to the line a bit more may help offset that.

Of course, the other factor that has kept SLU's floor super high has been their commitment to defense. Everyone talks about the Schertz offense, but the defense has been even better this year. Opposing teams have had a tough time making shots from anywhere against SLU (3rd nationally in defensive two-point and three-point percentage), and the Billikens do not give other teams multiple chances to convert on a possession either (24th in defensive rebounding percentage). SLU's defense is less about forcing turnovers compared to this year's Dayton squad or previous VCU teams and more about playing fundamentally sound. The majority of guys on their roster have good positional size which allows Schertz to trot out a number of lineup combinations. Their one vulnerability is a tendency to foul, but I'm not sure that GW can really take advantage of that outside of Slim. CC's roster is kind of built in the same mold as Schertz's SLU team but the thing that has been missing has been the defensive effectiveness.

SLU returns a few key players from last year's squad, led by none other than Mr. Cream Abdul-Jabbar himself, Robbie Avila. The senior had a very productive 2024-25 after following Schertz from Indiana State, ranking second in ppg, rpg, apg, and first in spg. His 49/36/75 splits are not too shabby either, especially given the fact that he was not playing at 100% for basically the entire year. Avila went down with a sprained ankle prior to the start of last year, and that injury would persist all season. While his raw production is down from last year, Avila is now fully healthy and has been considerably more efficient, shooting 54% from the field and an incredible 47% from 3. The offense continues to run through him, as he leads the team in assists. He missed all of his threes against GW last year in a 13 point effort, but I can't imagine that happening again tomorrow.

Supporting wing players Kellen Thames and Amari McCottry also return. Thames is a local product who committed to SLU under the Travis Ford regime. He struggled with major cramping issues last year, which forced him to be shut down for the year after January. In fact, his last game of the season came against GW. By all accounts, it seems like the cramping problem has been resolved as Thames has played a major role off the bench. He's not going to look for a 3, but is super athletic, finishes at the rim at an insane level (he's shooting 71% from the field on the year), and makes some unbelievable winning plays on both sides of the ball. Thames also makes his impact felt on the defensive side of the ball, where he leads the team in steals.

McCottry has a similar build to Thames and brings a lot of the same attributes defensively to the table. He has the best DBPR on the team per EvanMiya at +3.11. However, he's more of a three-level scorer on offense. McCottry can make the open three and finish inside, but the one area he's not been good at through two years is FT shooting. Everyone shoots 70% or better from the FT line on the team outside of him. McCottry is just a 58% shooter from the charity stripe which is a bit baffling. Last year against GW, he put up 6 points off the bench. Kalu Anya, SLU's leading rebounder from last year, also returned as Avila's frontcourt mate but he voluntarily accepted a redshirt this season. That speaks to players buying in and believing in Schertz's internal development capabilities.

Three guards and three forwards joined the team this season from the portal. In the backcourt, Trey Green has filled in for Swope quite well, at least from a shot-making perspective. The Xavier transfer never really got an extended look in the Big East - perhaps partly due to being just 6'0", but the fit at SLU could not have been better. Over 80% of Green's attempts come from 3, and he's knocked down nearly 46% of his attempts (8th nationally) so it will be important for GW not to give him much space to operate. Green also ranks top 100 in three pointers per game. Last week, he made nine threes in two games against St. Bonaventure and Duquesne.

Schertz's ability to turn both Dion Brown and Quentin Jones into winning players has been highly impressive as well. The former player did not see a ton of winning at Boston College and UMBC, while the latter may have experienced even less between his time at Cal Poly and Northern Illinois. Despite standing just 6'3", Brown leads the team in rebounding which says a lot about how hard he plays. He also shoots 62% from the field and can make the occasional 3. Jones meanwhile is SLU's sixth double figure scorer who does a good job of moving the ball on offense and scoring at all three levels. While he's been a bit quieter over SLU's last three games, 51/35/82 splits are nothing to sneeze at and Jones is a great defender.

Forwards Ishan Sharma, Brady Dunlap, and Paul Otieno have been pivotal over the course of the season. Sharma, a Canadian who came over from UVA, is coming off a career best 29 points at St. Bonaventure where he knocked down nine threes. Over 86% of his attempts come from 3 and he has a quick trigger on his release. Finding a way to take those looks away would be ideal. Unfortunately, like players in GW's offense he is very adept at making shots off the bounce. The same holds true for the Californian Dunlap, who traded Saints this offseason (John for Louis). He was held scoreless against Bona, but the Billikens still almost hung 100 on them. That speaks to the insane depth on this team. Both Sharma and Dunlap shoot over 41% from 3, but are slightly weaker defenders compared to others on the team. Otieno spent three years at Quinnipiac before SLU. The Kenyan is an interior presence that can score near the hoop and rebound at a good clip. His true value comes on the defensive end, where his energy helps provide a bit of rim protection.

Finally, freshmen Jax Kerr and Cam Hutson may see some minutes if the game ends up being a blowout. Kerr, a borderline 4-star top-150 recruit per 247Sports, hails from Oklahoma and figures to be a larger factor in SLU's frontcourt in future years. His efficiency has been subpar, but he's still put up good numbers in limited time. Hutson has also been a bit inefficient but he has good size for a wing with plus skill.

It doesn't take a genius to understand that this is a tough task. The things GW does best offensively SLU just does better - including rim & 3 shot selection. I think it's impressive that GW is outscoring opponents by over 13 ppg on average, but SLU has a scoring margin nearly twice that which is the best mark in the country. I am not completely sold that GW can guard the perimeter well enough to keep pace with the Billikens, especially with the game being at their place. While the traps have been more effective recently and SLU can be susceptible to coughing up the ball (they had a bit of trouble at the end of the Duquesne game last week), I think it would be a mistake to bank on that approach working consistently in the game. Slim isn't used to closing out on a great shooter like Avila and unlike last year SLU has the depth to prevent GW from sending double teams his way. Honestly, this game scares me more than the Florida game did. I thought GW could remain competitive against the Gators since they don't shoot the 3 ball well. There is very little SLU can't do at a high level, which is why they are #1 in the A10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency so far in conference play. If GW can keep this game within single digits, that is a major success. No team has been able to do that yet at SLU. In fact, no A10 team has been able to even keep it within 20 at Chaifetz. While I like GW playing uptempo, this may be a game to slow it down a bit and be more selective in taking those transition opportunities. For GW to be at its best, they will need to make shots and Slim will have to play at an A10-PoY level while helping GW keep pace on the boards.

Projected Score: SLU 89, GW 77. 15% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik forecasts a 12% chance at a W. ESPN predicts a 16.2% chance for GW to move to 14-7.
 

Down to GW -9 1/2, -115.  Somebody knows something, folks.  Again, SLU does not have a loss or single digit home victory all season.

We are tied with Oklahoma-Alabama for the second highest over/under of the evening at 167 1/2.  Damn you Toledo and Akron (169 1/2).

Really good energy 

Couple of BS calls on Garrett.  That off ball foul on the three was really weak, an so was the double foul (a double foul is basically refs not knowing how to do their jobs).

Last edited by Free Quebec (1/27/2026 8:15 pm)

Also, Castro’s defense is wreaking havoc on them right now.