Unless he’s completely healthy, might be prudent to keep him out Tuesday. That would give him a full week before our next game to practice and heal. Gotta think longer run than VCU.

Wisconsin Colonial 1974 wrote:

Unless he’s completely healthy, might be prudent to keep him out Tuesday. That would give him a full week before our next game to practice and heal. Gotta think longer run than VCU.

I’m with you. GW is a heavy underdog @VCU, but is actually favored in their last four. I’d rather have a fully healthy Castro for those last four. 10-8 is still on the table, although admittedly unlikely.

VCU Rams
Date: Tuesday February 17th, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Stuart C. Siegel Center (Richmond, VA)
TV: CBSSN
Ranks: 46th (KenPom), 54th (Bart Torvik), 48th (Haslametrics), 46th (EvanMiya)
2024-25 Record: 28-7, 15-3 (T-1st in A10)
2025-26 Projected Record: 23-8, 14-4 (2nd in A10)
NET Ranking: 46th (Q1 Game)

Head-to-Head: 4-19. GW's last second win at the Siegel Center during the 2023-24 season snapped a six game losing streak in the series. For the longest time, losing to the Rams by double digits was an annual occurrence. At least the past three meetings have been competitive. That's very much a step in the right direction against a team like VCU.

In last year's meeting, the Revs went into halftime with a one point lead but were unable to hold off the Rams in the second half, eventually falling 80-72. Both teams had double digit leads in the contest, but VCU was the one with the lead down the stretch. Despite the Buff & Blue outplaying the Rams for much of the first half, VCU stuck around by knocking down seven triples in the first frame. With just over two minutes to go in the game, a made FT from Jun cut the lead down to four points. After a missed three from JoeBam, Jackson was able to pull down an offensive rebound, get to the line, and make two FTs. On the next GW possession, Jacoi was fouled but ended up missing both FTs. In a game that got tight late, that sequence was killer.

For the game, both teams shot well from 3 (VCU 50%, GW 41%) but the road team made five more shots from downtown. GW did attempt 11 more FTs to make up some of those points, but this was yet another game where the difference came from inside the arc. It feels like this has happened so many times in the CC era. VCU shot 52% from 2 compared to 43% for GW. It didn't help that GW lost both the rebound and assists battle by 10. The Revs did come away with 12 steals compared to VCU's 8, as the Rams coughed the ball up 16 times to just 10 for the home team. Tricky led all scorers with 23 points (including five made threes) while Slim added 20 himself.

The script was flipped somewhat in the last road game. GW was down just two after the first 20 minutes, despite digging themselves in an early hole. Poor shooting (from you guessed it!) two point range was a major culprit, as the Revs were just 36% from the field (although 44% from deep). What happened after halftime was absolutely absurd. I've seen GW have countless scoring droughts against the Rams over the years (especially during the havoc days) so to see VCU have absolutely no answer defensively for GW was super refreshing. The Revs shot 17/21 from the field in the second half, good for 81%. I don't care if it's Michigan or Mississippi Valley State - to shoot that well in a half is exceptional (and maybe a bit lucky). Unfortunately, GW had some defensive issues of their own which kept the game close. JB's tough off-balanced jumper in the closing seconds ended up being the decider. To VCU's credit, they got a good final shot, but Shulga's heave from half court clanked off the rim. It was just GW's second win at the Siegel Center, with the previous win coming back in 2016. JB finished with 28 points (14 FT attempts), Max had 20 points, and Garrett added 14. It was nice to see that 2023-24 squad win a big game before things started to fall apart later in January.

Offensive Efficiency: 49th (KenPom), 50th (Bart Torvik), 49th (Haslametrics), 51st (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 63rd (KenPom), 97th (Bart Torvik), 92nd (Haslametrics), 63rd (EvanMiya)
Pace: 75th (KenPom), 72nd (Bart Torvik), 102nd (Haslametrics), 77th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 58th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 115th
Rim & 3 Rate: 89% (28th)

Strengths (2025-26 Season):
Bench Points Per Game: 35.81 PPG (5th; 1st in A10)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 26.2 FTA (12th; 1st in A10)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 19.5 FTM (12th; 2nd in A10)
Blocks Per Game: 4.7 BPG (31st; 2nd in A10)
Winning Percentage: 76.9% (34th; 3rd in A10)
Scoring Offense: 83.5 PPG (40th; 2nd in A10)
Scoring Margin: +11 PPG (43rd; 2nd in A10)
Three Point Percentage: 36.4% (57th; 5th in A10)
Three Pointers Per Game: 9.5 3PM/G (63rd; 3rd in A10)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 54.6% (72nd; 5th in A10)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 26.1 3PA (89th; 6th in A10)
Fastbreak Points: 12.46 PPG (92nd; 6th in A10)
Rebounds Per Game: 37.12 RPG (93rd; 5th in A10)
Rebound Margin: +3.3 RPG (98th; 5th in A10)

Weaknesses (2025-26 Season):
VCU is not bottom 100 in any category.

Projected Starting Lineup:
#1 G Nyk Lewis (Freshman; Washington, DC)
#0 G Brandon Jennings (Sophomore; Richmond, VA) - 2.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg; 36% FG, 39% 3-PT, 68% FT per 13 mpg/35 GP at VCU last season
#2 G Jadrian Tracey (RS Senior; Fort Myers, FL) - 6.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.7 apg; 48% FG, 34% 3-PT, 69% FT per 21.3 mpg/35 GP at Oregon last season
#5 F Barry Evans (Senior; Baltimore, MD) - 13.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.3 spg; 48% FG, 38% 3-PT, 66% FT per 32.8 mpg/33 GP at Bryant last season
#17 F Lazar Djokovic (Junior; Gornji Milanovac, Serbia) - 7.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.1 bpg; 53% FG, 13% 3-PT, 67% FT per 23.9 mpg/29 GP at Charleston last season

Key Bench Players:
#6 G Terrence Hill Jr. (Sophomore; Portland, OR) - 3.4 ppg; 45% FG, 34% 3-PT, 100% FT per 6.2 mpg/23 GP at VCU last season
#8 G/F Michael Belle (Junior; London, United Kingdom) - 2.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg; 44% FG, 7% 3-PT, 39% FT per 12.8 mpg/35 GP at VCU last season
#15 G Tyrell Ward (Junior; Washington, DC) - 9.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg; 44% FG, 41% 3-PT, 68% FT per 21.8 mpg/31 GP at LSU during 2023-24 season
#4 G Ahmad Nowell (Sophomore; Philadelphia, PA) - 1.5 ppg, 1.1 apg; 36% FG, 19% 3-PT, 57% FT per 6.5 mpg/18 GP at UConn last season
#22 F Keyshawn Mitchell (Junior; Brooklyn, NY) - 8.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg; 52% FG, 32% 3-PT, 58% FT per 20.3 mpg/35 GP at Bryant last season

Key Losses:
Max Shulga (Graduated; Kyiv, Ukraine) - 15 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 4 apg, 1.8 spg; 44% FG, 39% 3-PT, 78% FT per 32.8 mpg/35 GP
Joe Bamisile (Graduated; Chesterfield, VA) - 15 ppg, 5 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.1 spg; 46% FG, 31% 3-PT, 64% FT per 26.7 mpg/35 GP
Zeb Jackson (Graduated; Toledo, OH) - 10.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.2 spg; 39% FG, 32% 3-PT, 89% FT per 22.6 mpg/30 GP
Phillip Russell (Graduated; St. Louis, MO) - 10.3 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.1 spg; 40% FG, 36% 3-PT, 81% FT per 23.1 mpg/34 GP
Jack Clark (Graduated; Cheltenham, PA) - 9.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2 apg, 1 spg; 48% FG, 35% 3-PT, 79% FT per 28.8 mpg/35 GP

Preview:
The life of a mid-major college basketball fan isn't easy. You always want your team to do well, but when you know you have the right coach you start to think whether you want the team to be really good because your coach's name will start popping up for bigger jobs come February and March. Most fans will take a special season even if it means the coach leaves after it, but there's a certain level of uncertainty about whether the team will drop off a bit under a new coach.

That worry has not really come for VCU fans. At this point, every time their coach gets mentioned for a bigger job I'm sure they just shrug because they know the replacement will be just as good and keep the winning tradition going. The AD seems to knock it out of the park with the hires time after time. They are very much like Utah State of the East. I mean, just look at this streak of coaches: Jeff Capel, Anthony Grant, Shaka Smart, Will Wade, Mike Rhoades, Ryan Odom. Every single one of these coaches won and got promoted to high-major jobs. That's a heck of a selling point to come to VCU. Once a coach leaves for a bigger job, as part of their contract obligations they are forced to play their former school in a home-and-home otherwise pay up to get out of it. That kind of thinking is why VCU is where it is today.

It was a bit of a surprise to see a lukewarm reception when Phil Martelli Jr. was hired this offseason compared to previous coaching hires. The way that Phil Jr. got his first head coaching gig at Bryant was somewhat unconventional. He was named acing head coach prior to the start of the 2023-24 season after Jared Grasso was arrested in a hit and run incident. Following Grasso's resignation, Martelli got the full-time gig and proceeded to win 43 games in two years, including a trip to the NCAA tournament last year where the Bulldogs were competitive against Michigan State. Bryant was only trailing by five at halftime against the Spartans. A lot of the winning may have come with Grasso's players, but Martelli played a role in their recruitment and undoubtedly did a great job there. All you have to do is see how Bryant is doing nowadays. Jamion is only in his first year and the Bulldogs lost a lot from last year, but Bryant looks completely out of sorts in the America East this year. Martelli Jr. also comes from great pedigree - his dad is a St. Joe's legend.

Now the jump from the America East to the A10 is a big one, but this is VCU we are talking about. The Rams have finished under .500 in the A10 just once in the 13 seasons they've been in the league (the 2019-20 season). You'd have to go all the way back to the 1999-00 season to find the previous time the Rams were under .500 in conference play. If you have a pulse, you should be able to have success there.

After a couple seasons playing at a slower pace under Odom, VCU is back to playing uptempo under Martelli. His Bryant teams were some of the fastest in the nation, ranking 3rd and 6th nationally in pace respectively in his two years in Smithfield (the Rams are 75th currently). Martelli's squads in the America East were defense-first (which makes him a good fit for VCU) although this year's Ram squad is the weakest they've been on that side of the ball since the first year under Rhoades in 2017-18. That may be partly because this squad doesn't force a ton of turnovers. There's two main staples that you can expect from Phil Jr.'s squads from his time as head coach. His teams have good size and length down low, making it tough to finish inside. It also allows the guards to run teams off the three point line and funnel opponents to the rim to take advantage of this size inside. Bryant was top 50 in defensive 2P% the past two years, and both those teams were roughly top 10 in block percentage - impressive for an America East squad. They were also top 100 in defensive 3P attempt percentage. VCU is top 100 in all those categories this year as well.

Offensively, Martelli's teams have been good at taking care of the ball and after year 1 they've crashed the glass for second chance opportunities fairly well. He simply has a lot more offensive talent than he had at Bryant, and that shows through with the shooting efficiencies. VCU is top 100 in both 2P% and 3P%. They are also top 10 in free throw rate which was not a staple of either of his Bryant teams. He is also emphasizing the three ball more this year than he did at his previous stop.

VCU did lose their top five guys to graduation in the offseason. Max Shulga, last year's A10 Player of the Year, was drafted 57th overall in the NBA draft by the Orlando Magic before being traded to the Boston Celtics. He made his NBA debut a couple weeks back against the Houston Rockets. Shulga was impactful as a defender, scorer, and facilitator, ranking 80th nationally in steals per game, 70th in free throw attempts, and 63rd in assist/turnover ratio. Joe Bamisile became a starter last year for the first time since his GW days and emerged as a primary offensive option (89th in field goals made in the country). Zeb Jackson was 25th in FT percentage and a three-year leader for the Rams. Phillip Russell brought a certain edge to the team, although if you're not a VCU fan he was up there for most annoying player in the league. Jack Clark, who debuted in 2018, finally ran out of eligibility after making some big plays himself. Although not a scorer, Luke Bamgboye was a loss defensively up front. The London native was in the top 20 nationally in blocks per game.

Despite all the losses, Martelli was able to hold on to a quartet of players from last year. Christian Fermin was no slouch defensively himself, ranking 91st in total blocks. He took a leave of absence back in November to deal with a personal matter and has not played since. Hopefully everything is okay with him.

Terrence Hill Jr. showed the ability to be a flamethrower offensively in his limited minutes as a freshman, including a 13 point performance against La Salle last February. The Oregon native has mostly continued to come off the bench this year, but he leads VCU in scoring at 14.4 ppg while shooting 39% from 3 and 87% from the FT line (59th nationally). Hill has scored in double figures in every conference game but one this year. He also leads the team in assists at 2.7 apg. Per EvanMiya, Hill is the weakest player defensively in the rotation (-0.14 DBPR) but he more than makes up for it with his offense (+5.11 OBPR).

Michael Belle, who hails from the UK, is more of a threat offensively this season. Last year, he went just 2/31 from deep, and of course given GW's luck one of those makes came in the last meeting. The Londoner rebounds well and has unusual 50/50/50 shooting splits - that is, 50% from the field, 50% from 3, and 50% from the FT line. Belle doesn't take a ton of threes (he prefers to get to the rim), but he can certainly hit the open shot.

After there was some speculation that he may follow Odom 70 miles north to Charlottesville, local product Brandon Jennings ultimately decided to stay home. His freshman year stat line does not jump off the page, but Jennings was one of those guys whose impact could be felt when he was in the game. He struggled when run off the three point line, but was 39% from deep in year 1. Jennings has become a starter this year and does a bit of everything for the team. He's especially a standout defensively, where he leads the team in steals (1.5 spg). For the season he is shooting 37% from 3 (doesn't take a lot of threes) and 86% from the FT line (71st nationally). Jennings came off the bench in VCU's last game, but I think it was for disciplinary reasons. I expect him to be back starting tomorrow. He made his only shot attempt in last year's meeting, finishing with two points.

VCU's transfer class got a lot of attention in the offseason. Martelli brought Barry Evans and Keyshawn Mitchell with him from Bryant. Evans spent his first two years at St. Bonaventure. His raw talent was evident but it seemed like Schmidt could not fully unlock him offensively. He was able to shine stepping down a level, averaging 13.3 ppg last season. Evans is not a particularly good shooter, but he rebounds well on both ends, moves the ball, and uses his length to swipe the ball away. He's scored in double figures just twice in conference play, with one of those coming in a revenge game against Bona (VCU's conference opener). In two meetings against GW, Evans has not scored or even attempted a shot in 15 combined minutes.

After playing little his freshman year, Mitchell had a second year breakout at Bryant. America East foes struggled to handle his 6'11" height down low and he was even able to stretch the floor a bit while rebounding very well (nearly 7 boards a game playing just 20 mpg). Mitchell has played more of a reduced role at VCU, particularly during conference play. He's more of a spot minute option at this point in the season for the Rams.

Of course, the headliners of the portal gets were the ones that came from the high-major ranks - Jadrian Tracey (Oregon), Tyrell Ward (LSU), and Ahmad Nowell (Connecticut). Tracey actually returns to the A10 after he spent his first two years at St. Joe's, a place Martelli knows plenty about. Tracey was not a major player for the Hawks but turned into a reliable role player in Eugene by shooting 35% from 3. He's another player who does a bit of everything but his best attribute is his shooting. This season, Tracey is shooting nearly 39% from distance on nearly five attempts a game.

Ward, a DC native, is a tremendously talented player. After all, he averaged over 9 ppg at an SEC school just a couple seasons ago and was a four-star, top 50 prospect out of HS. Unfortunately, he's dealt with mental struggles that has held him back. Ward sat out all of last year for mental health purposes and did not play for a handful of VCU's games in late December/early January for similar reasons. When he's in the right head space, he can be very impactful as a scorer - although he has alternated double and single digit scoring performances over the last month on middling efficiency. Consider him to be an X-factor for the Rams moving forward.

Nowell, another former 4-star, top 40 prospect was lost in the shuffle at UConn. At just 6'0" the Philadelphia native struggled to finish over bigger defenders in the Big East but he was just a freshman. For VCU, he comes off the bench and provides some good shooting from 3 in roughly 10 mpg. Nowell is shooting 40% on just over two attempts a game. He can be vulnerable defensively due to his size. Since a 14 point performance against Rhody in mid-January, Nowell has scored 17 points combined in the eight games since. I guess I should mention fellow Big East transfer Jordann Dumont, although I don't think he was expected to play a large role. Dumont has intriguing upside for his size, but he played little at Villanova and is seeing even less time at VCU. He won't see the court unless the game is a blowout.

The most impactful transfer for VCU this year has actually been Lazar Djokovic, who came over from Charleston after beginning his career at yet another Big East school in Xavier. To my knowledge, there's no relation to the 24-time Grand Slam champion, as Djokovic is a very common surname. Apparently, it is the Serbian version of George. Anyways, VCU's Djokovic has had an Allenspach-like breakout for them. By that I mean he was more of a role player at his previous stop, but has become a go-to weapon despite stepping up in competition. The Serbian is shooting a career best 36% from deep (low volume) and 76% from the FT line. He is fairly effective near the rim. Djokovic currently ranks 63rd nationally in free throw attempts, which leads the A10. He also leads the team in rebounding and provides some rim protection underneath (1.3 bpg). GW will need to find a way to limit his production, something few teams in the league have been able to do.

Finally, a pair of freshmen in Nyk Lewis and Jordan Tillery round out the rotation. Both players had offers from GW out of HS. Lewis, a DC native and 4-star top 60 HS recruit, originally committed to Xavier but flipped his commitment after Archie's brother Sean left for Texas. Lewis is very hard to stop when he gets downhill, can rebound, and deflects passes defensively. He's also a respectable 33% from deep, an area of his game I thought was somewhat inconsistent in HS. If he sticks around, he will be a problem in the league for years to come. Lewis averaged 10.5 ppg in VCU's games last week against Richmond and La Salle. Against the Explorers, he finished with an impressive 11 rebounds despite standing at just 6'1" - the second time he's posted 10+ rebounds in a game this season. Tillery is an Orlando native who has shot the ball well in limited time - 57% from the field/3, 71% from the line. He's playing behind a number of players and is still a work in progress defensively.

This is a tough game on the road. It's perhaps the stiffest test the rest of the year for GW. I think the Revs can make this is a high scoring game, but the question is whether they want the game to unfold like that. Obviously, GW will need to close out along the perimeter against Hill/Tracey - their two high volume shooters - but do they defend a bit more conservatively against everyone else? The Rams have plenty of good shooters by percentage, but it may be preferable to dare others to shoot instead of fouling, sending them to the line, and allowing shots inside - especially if the rotation remains thin. Two areas that GW will need to win or come close to winning will be the turnover and rebounding battles. If they can do that, the game may be within reach which would be considered a success. Can they keep up the balanced shot diet despite VCU's size/length down low? Keep in mind that VCU is on a nine game winning streak, which is currently the ninth longest in the nation.

Projected Score: VCU 85, GW 78. 26% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik forecasts a 29% chance at a W. ESPN predicts a 25.1% chance for GW to move to 16-11.
 

GW is +6.5 tonight.    The opening o/u was 164.5 but has dropped to 161.5, as bettors are expecting more of a defensive game.  I don't generally bet on GW games, but I think we lose a close one (but cover) and like the under in light of GW's recently improved defense.

This tweet seems to indicate that Castro is back

https://x.com/theylovecastro/status/2023835259113246895

I don’t say it enough DMV, but great review.

They are too quick for us on defense.  On offense, too much dribbling, not enough ball rotation.

I hope no one on here bet the under, lol.

Hungers play has Been such a bright spot