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1/27/2020 2:36 am  #1

GW vs Davidson Game Thread

Next up Davidson.  Davidson has a 88 KenPom so this will be a very tough challenge for us

Does GW make it 4 wins in 5 games?


1/28/2020 1:00 am  #2

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

We got a line yet?

     Thread Starter

1/28/2020 12:17 pm  #3

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

After a lackluster start to the season, well, here comes Davidson.  After a 1-3 start to the conference season, with the win being one in overtime against St. Joes, the Cats have won 3 in a row, each by double figures.  They held Fordham, SLU and GM to an average of 58 points during these three wins.  And Jon Axel Gudmundsson, the defending A10 POY, the guy who a certain poster overlooked completely when trying to make the point that Davidson's recruiting had gone entirely downhill (after all, he was averaging in single digits in points as a freshmen so what kind of ceiling could he possibly have?), has scored 20+ in each of those three wins.

Davidson still fires up those 3's (46% of their FG attempts are from 3, compared to 42% by GW) but at a hair below 35%, they don't seem to be as efficient from 3 as past McKillop teams.  (Still good enough for 3rd in the conference but both Richmond and Dayton are in the 37%+ range).  This is largely due to Luke Frampton, who shot 14-29 from 3 over his first 5 games this year, has been lost to a season ending injury.  Jon Axel takes the most by far and Kellan Grady hoists his share but at 33.6% and 30.2% from 3 respectively, neither should be regarded as a dead-eye sharpshooter.  Carter Collins, Mike Jones and Hyunjung Lee warrant more of our attention from behind the arc.  

The biggest factor in their turnaround to date has been their ability to play solid defense without fouling.  In these past 3 wins, opponents took a total of 31 free throws against them.  McKillop likely recognizes that this is not among his more talented offensive teams (despite having two conference POY's; I have to believe that Frampton';s absence has had a major impact.)) and is preaching them to play hard and smart.  Not only are these not Steph Curry's Wildcats but they are not even Jack Gibbs's or Peyton Aldrich's Wildcats.  

Davidson finishes this season with URI, Dayton, Richmond and VCU among its final 5 games so wins are important to have right now.   Hope we show up with confidence.  It does sound though like we might catching these guys at the wrong time.


1/28/2020 8:07 pm  #4

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

Davidson Wildcats

Date/Time: Wednesday January 29th @ 7:00 PM at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington DC.
Record Last Year: 24-10, 14-4 (2nd in Atlantic 10)
Preseason Ranks: 61st (KenPom), 49th (Bart Torvik), 48th (Sports Illustrated), 19th (CBS)
Projected Record: 15-15, 9-9 (8th in Atlantic 10)
Postseason Last Year: NIT; lost to Lipscomb 89-81 in the first round as a four seed.

Coaching Record: Bob McKillop, 578-350 in 30 seasons at Davidson with 9 NCAA tournament appearances, 7 NIT appearances, and 1 CBI appearance. Obviously if you make a postseason tournament over 50% of the time, you must be a good coach but how about this: since the 1992-93 season, McKillop has finished under .500 in conference just twice, and both times he was one win away from reaching the .500 mark. Insane. Another fun fact that I had no idea about previously: he was apparently signed as a free agent briefly by the 76ers. McKillop currently ranks 44th all-time in wins - just one less than another coach you may have heard of - Mark Few - for 43rd. 

All Time Record: 8-14, with us dropping the past four contests against them. In last year's 73-62 meeting at their place, DJ and Justin gave us 15 points apiece (Mazzulla also added seven rebounds). We didn't even shoot the ball poorly (considering we ranked 321st on offense last year, a FG/3-pt/FT slash of 40/33/78 wasn't bad - and we made eight threes). Unfortunately, Davidson shot the ball better and made 11 threes at a 42% clip. All five of their starters finished in double figures, accounting for 68 of their 73 points.

Offensive Efficiency: 53rd (KenPom), 59th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 149th (KenPom), 172nd (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 316th (KenPom), 320th (Bart Torvik)

Key Returning Players:
Kellan Grady (JR; West Roxbury, MA) 17.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.9 apg; 45% FG, 34% 3-pt, 74% FT
      Last year against us: 16 points, 2 rebounds; 6-18 FG, 3-8 3-pt, 1-3 FT in 38 minutes.

Jon Axel Gudmundsson (SR; Grindavík, ISL) 16.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 4.8 apg; 46% FG, 35% 3-pt, 83% FT
      Last year against us: 10 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals; 3-10 FG, 0-5 3-pt, 4-7 FT in 37 minutes. 

Luka Brajkovic (SO; Feldkirch, AUT) 11.1 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.4 apg; 55% FG, 36% 3-pt, 70% FT
      Last year against us: 14 points, 3 rebounds; 5-7 FG, 1-1 3-pt, 3-3 FT in 19 minutes.

Luke Frampton (RS SO; Poca, WV) 10.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2 apg; 38% FG, 38% 3-pt, 66% FT
      Last year against us: 11 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists; 3-5 FG, 3-4 3-pt, 2-3 FT in 35 minutes.

Key Losses:
None really, which played a part in most picking them to finish top 3 in the preseason.

Bob McKillop (an apt name, because he has KILLED us in the past four meetings with Davidson beating us by 11, 29, 27, and 11 points) enters his 31st year with expectations no different from when his Wildcats first joined the conference in 2014. Bringing back two first team all-A10 guys as well as most of the rotation, it was hard to imagine their team falling at all given they finished last season 2nd in the league. Only VCU, a team similarly bringing back nearly everyone, and Dayton, who was bringing in a bevy of transfers, were thought to be at their level (and in the case of the Flyers, concerns about inner team chemistry at the time often placed them third). The only area that Davidson thought to be lacking in was budget which ranked last in the league (just under us).

Unfortunately, the Wildcats didn't get off to the start they had hoped for in OOC season, losing by 10 against both Auburn and Marquette which figured to be potential resume builders had they won. It didn't help that they have been without two key rotation guys in Frampton (personal leave of absence) and Pritchett (knee injury - he had 17 points against us last year) basically all year. They didn't suffer any bad losses (although losing to bottom feeders Wake Forest and Vanderbilt isn't ideal) but at this point the team finds themselves at win the A10 tournament or settle for the NIT (maybe CBI).

Their destiny will be based on the play of the aforementioned two all-A10 guys in Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson, Davidson's top two scorers. Grady (15.2 ppg) also leads the team in steals (1.4 spg) and also helps out in rebounding the ball (4.3 rpg - much needed as Davidson ranks last in the league in that department) and passing (2.2 apg). He battled knee injuries of his own last season, and I wonder if there are any lingering effects of that still. Shooting 81% from the line is still great, but Grady's shooting percentages from the field and three have dipped each year in college. He is only at 30% from deep now, much lower than his 37% shooting from there freshman year where he had a good chance getting drafted right away (it might have been the second round, but at this point staying at the school for three years has not really helped his stock - he probably still has a good chance of signing somewhere as a UFA once he graduates). Gudmundsson (or should I say GOODmundsson given his play of late - he has scored at least 20+ points in four of his past five games) has been a bit more steady, although his shooting stats are down from last year as well. He leads the team in rebounding (6.9) and assists (3.9), and is second in scoring (14.1) and steals (1.2) to teammate Grady. Jon Axel leads the team in made threes with 37.

With Frampton and Pritchett out, previous role players Carter Collins and Luka Brajkovic have served as secondary playmakers to their "big 2". Collins, who hails from Chapel Hill (wouldn't UNC love to have him right now) is having a breakout year, and has scored in double figures in 13 of 18 games this year. Collins is also their best free throw shooter at 88%. Brajkovic isn't technically a second year breakout given his immediate impact his freshman year, but is posting similar numbers as last year on slightly worse efficiency. The Austrian is a good rebounder (second best on team at 5.4) and a capable passer (1.9 assists per game). Much like Longprė in the SJU game, Brajkovic is a 6'10" guy who can step out and shoot the three at 31%, so Chase is going to have another tough matchup in this one. Davidson has also received some nice contributions from their freshman class, notably South Korea native Hyunjung Lee and Minnesotan Michael 'Mike' Jones, who previously redshirted a year because of a knee injury (seems to be recurring on this team - maybe they are in need of a better conditioning coach??). Lee is having a solid freshman campaign with a FG/3-pt/FT slash of 46/36/75 and averages 7 points and 4 rebounds per 20 minutes of action. He will be a nice piece to build around long-term for their program. Jones is their most efficient long range shooter at 41% (Minnesotans seem to be great shooters) and is coming off a game against George Mason where he made 5 threes. He will be someone we will need to key in on when he's on the floor. We haven't been as elite taking away the three of late, but I'm sure JC will make that a priority against this team.

The remainder of their rotation will consist of another Jones (junior walk-on Bates Jones) along with sophomore Brit Nelson Boachie-Yiadom and possibly freshman from Denmark David Kristensen for a few minutes. (Bates) Jones has made 10 threes at a 31% clip which isn't bad for a walk-on and adds some rebounding. Yiadom hasn't seen too much court time, but is 11/14 from the field on the season and has also been a decent rebounder in limited time. His long-term ability to finish well near the hoop and be a shot blocker (largely absent on this team - the Wildcats are last in the league in blocked shots) is definitely exciting for the team. Kristensen doesn't figure to make much of an impact should he see the floor.

This was one of the games coming into the year that I put under "games we could win even though we shouldn't on paper" based on JC's defensive philosophy. However, Davidson is gaining momentum and starting to play like the team many expected to see coming into the season. I still think the game being played at home does help a bit, but it will come down to our defense vs. their offense. We have fared a bit better against teams that are closer to average defensively, and I wouldn't consider Davidson to be a great defensive team - more decent. Their lack of rim protection shouldn't make life too difficult for us near the hoop, and overall barring a poor shooting night I wouldn't expect putting up points to be a struggle (although I really hope we aren't settling for threes). How well we run their guys off the line will determine the outcome of this one. We are 0-6 in games where we have conceded more than 71 points, and 9-5 when we've given up fewer points than that. Davidson averages 70.1 ppg as a team.

Predicted Score: Davidson 68, GW 66. 41% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN says we have a smaller 26.9% chance to win. The line currently has Davidson as 4 point favorites (though if they win, you know it's going to be by five points the way our losses have gone in conference season thus far!)


1/28/2020 9:02 pm  #5

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

Colonials are 4 point dogs at home vs. Davidson.  GW has shown themselves able to compete in the Atlantic Ten, but have not yet shown themselves able to win against anybody other than the weaker teams, having beaten only 14th place St. Joes, 11th place UMass and 10th place Mason (combined in conference record of 4-17).   A win against Davidson (tied for 6th at 4-3) would be a nice hump to get over.     


1/28/2020 10:24 pm  #6

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

Buckle up! should be a good one!

     Thread Starter

1/29/2020 2:25 pm  #7

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

Game opened at GW plus 3.5.  Now plus 4.5 or 5.  Bettors seem to like the other guys.    Then again, bettors liked GW over Fordham...shows how little they knew.


1/29/2020 7:43 pm  #8

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

THAT was a damn good first half. Paar, Battle and (especially) Jack were good. Some better defense and this could be a really fun night!


1/29/2020 8:14 pm  #9

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

Seem like every 50/50 goes to Davidson. Gotta keep a hold on the ball guys.


1/29/2020 8:50 pm  #10

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

I think GW could have designed better shots than what they got on the final possession before the OT. Why didn't Maceo Jack get the shot??

Also, it looks like GW is WAY better than a bottom 4 team which a lot of people(including myself) predicted. 


1/29/2020 9:01 pm  #11

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

I loved Paar till he missed 3 of 4 FTs.  Oh well.  Quite a game.


1/29/2020 9:02 pm  #12

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

Harris can’t get anything to fall but his on ball defense has been stellar.


1/29/2020 9:09 pm  #13

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

Our team is young but is looking really good. Loving this roster. Battle reminds me of Garino. Harris is a dangerous G/F with huge ups and good IQ. Paar is a banger inside, and a rebounder that reminds me of TC. Maceo is a stud and we have him for another season. Walker has some skills. Nelson is raw, and is butchering a lot of possessions, but his skills and pedigree are there.

We finally have a mixture of size, shooting and athleticism again. I feel like it’s 2012 all over again. If we can keep the core for next year, I bet they win 20 and will be back on the bubble.


1/29/2020 9:13 pm  #14

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

I thought this was over when Davidson went up 86-80, but Toro has come off the bench cold and provided a spark, and now its tied at 86 with a minute left!! Maceo Jack has a career high with 30 right now. Will this be a marathon 4 or 5 OT game?? LOL


1/29/2020 9:19 pm  #15

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

BC wrote:

I loved Paar till he missed 3 of 4 FTs.  Oh well.  Quite a game.

Frosh, long forward/center pulling down rebounds, playing great D and collecting post points off the glass. Can’t have everything. Really excited for his future.

Jack is a stud, we knew that. Battle and Harris look like all A-10 contenders in the future. Super excited for them.


1/29/2020 9:22 pm  #16

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

Nelson is playing too much selfish ball.


1/29/2020 9:24 pm  #17

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

If he is playing to be a hero he may end of playing the goat.


1/29/2020 9:31 pm  #18

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

Whether GW wins or loses, this game is going to make national news because of the 4 overtimes, which should be good for GW. Too unlikely scenarios to end the 3rd OT as Gudmunson misses 2 free throws, and Jameer Nelson Jr. hits an ill-advised lay-up

Last edited by Thomas (1/29/2020 9:32 pm)


1/29/2020 9:39 pm  #19

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

Nerve racking!


1/29/2020 9:39 pm  #20

Re: GW vs Davidson Game Thread

I think GW MAY have the upper hand here with a 103-101 lead as Gudmundsson and Grady appear to be gassed, but Lee came in cold and hit a 3. A 5th OT looks very possible


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