Wasn't fully sure whether to post this or not - given the postponed games and cancelations recently, a lot can change in the next 24 hours with game status. Hoping for the best!

Navy Midshipmen
Date/Time: Wednesday November 25th @ 12:00 PM ET at Alumni Hall in Annapolis, MD.
Record Last Year: 14-16, 8-10 (T-6th in Patriot)
Preseason Ranks: 193rd (KenPom), 190th (Bart Torvik), 221st (CBS)
Projected Record (as of now!): 13-9, 10-6 (4th in Patriot)

Coaching Record: Ed DeChellis, 114-166 in 9 seasons at the Naval Academy. After a few rough seasons early on, DeChellis has been remarkably consistent in Patriot play, winning between 8 and 10 games in each of the last six seasons. While his teams have always remained competitive, he has been unable to qualify for a postseason tournament since arriving in Annapolis. This is admittedly a tough task at Navy, who last made the tournament in the 1997-98 season (current head honcho Billy Lange who preceded DeChellis also failed to qualify for the tournament during his time there). DeChellis has previously made the NCAAs before at alma mater Penn State (he won the NIT as well as Big Ten Coach of the Year in 2009) and East Tennessee State, so there is a chance he might be able to get Navy over the hump at some point in the near future, but it's unlikely that the season will be this year.

All Time Record: 17-6, although we have split the series in the two games that have taken place after 2000. Surprisingly, the last meeting was nearly 10 years ago despite the two schools being under 40 miles from each other. In that game, Navy knocked us off at the Smith Center, 64-57. We placed three in double figures, led by David Pellom (11 points, 13 rebounds), Bryan Bynes (11 points, 6 steals), and Dwayne Smith coming off the bench with 10 points and 5 rebounds.

Offensive Efficiency: 226th (KenPom), 204th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 166th (KenPom), 193rd (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 352nd (KenPom), 355th (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 85.6% (16th in country)

Key Returning Players:
Cameron 'Cam' Davis (SR; Battlefield, MO) 16.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.5 apg; 41% FG, 33% 3-pt, 75% FT
John Carter Jr. (JR; Spring Hill, TN) 10.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg; 33% FG, 29% 3-pt, 79% FT
Greg Summers (JR; Ocoee, FL) 9.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.3 apg; 43% FG, 19% 3-pt, 67% FT

Key Losses:
Evan Wieck (Graduated; Amarillo, TX) 9.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.2 apg; 59% FG, 58% FT

Comments:
Navy opens the season at home for the first time since the 2017-18 season, when they began the season with a 71-62 win against Pittsburgh in the Veterans Classic. Since the event began in 2014, the Midshipmen have gone 2-4, and they defeated Dooley's East Carolina squad 62-57 last season.

DeChellis likes to have his Navy squad play fairly methodically in the halfcourt, looking to grind out games against opponents who are often more athletic than the smaller Midshipmen. This has enabled Navy to stay in nearly every game during OOC play last season, where they went 6-5. Their losses came in overtime against George Mason, and other solid teams like Liberty (by 7), Lipscomb (by 4), and UVA (by 9 - although last year UVA wasn't exactly stellar on the offensive end). The road loss against Bryant (by 15) felt like an outlier as Navy did not suffer another double digit loss after that for over two months. During the DeChellis era, Navy has never finished in the top 200 in pace, a trend carried over from his Penn State days. Last year was another level of slow, with the Midshipmen clocking in as the third slowest team in college basketball. 

Navy has a clear identity on both sides of the ball, with an emphasis on physicality and crashing the boards at the top of the priority list. Defensively, they will throw a bunch of zone defenses at you to turn you over (although they struggled in the steal department last year), so one of the keys going into this one is how we respond to not necessarily having a clear driving lane to run pick and roll (we had this issue against Fordham last year). This does make them susceptible against teams that can make shots from deep at a decent clip, so hopefully this means Jamison, Maceo, and Sloan are in for big games when they are in.

Offensively, Navy will send a lot of bodies to the glass for second chance opportunities as there is not a whole lot of shooting on this roster (and furthermore, the Midshipmen settled for a few too many midrange shots as indicated by their 337th offensive shot quality ranking). As a team, they shot only 41% from the field and 30% from behind the arc. There is no player returning who shot above 33% on a significant number of attempts. We should not have too much trouble taking away the three in this one, however we did show vulnerabilities near the hoop. Given that Navy's tallest player stands at just 6'8", we should hopefully be able to hold our own even with Hunter not eligible yet.

In the backcourt, the guy who makes everything go for Navy is Cameron 'Cam' Davis, who is back for one last ride (or should I say one last voyage hehe). The senior who hails from Battlefield, Missouri (that seems almost too perfect) was a Second-Team All-Patriot selection last year. Davis is more of a combo guard - although he is certainly capable of handling the rock (he led the team with 2.5 apg and had a 5:3 assist to turnover ratio) he is better served off the ball where he can focus on scoring the ball at all three levels - Davis also led the team with 64 made threes on the year, accounting for roughly a third of the total team makes. Another third of the makes came from John Carter Jr., although he was significantly less efficient than Davis. Carter's 79% shooting from the line suggests potential for improvement, but he has been pretty inefficient everywhere for two seasons now. Carter fits Navy's commitment battling for rebounds very well, ranking second on the team in rebounding (4.9 rpg) despite standing at just 6'3". He ranks just behind Navy's third key contributor returning at the guard position, Greg Summers, who paced the team with 6.8 boards a contest (and is also 6'3"!). Summers is also a valuable passer for the team, averaging 2.3 assists per game. He is probably the best finisher inside of the three, but is worse from the line and distance than the other two. Expect this trio to start and see roughly 30+ minutes of action each. They will be key contributors offensively, but not so much on the other side of the ball.

The frontcourt is where there are some big question marks with this Midshipmen team. It is likely that Minnesotan Luke Loehr retains his starting place at the 4 although he isn't much of an inside presence. Loehr is a textbook stretch 4 who attempted more threes (88) than twos (50) last year. He will add some complementary scoring and rebounding. The loss of Wieck leaves an open spot next to Loehr though. He wasn't much of a defensive presence either, but was one of the taller guys on the team and was fantastic on the offensive glass, tying with Summers for the team lead and even leading the Patriot in offensive rebounding rate two years ago. Navy played through him quite a bit as he was a great finisher down low, something that is not really present from Navy's returners. His replacement will likely be one of Alec Loehr (Luke's brother), Daniel Deaver, or Richard Njoku. Deaver, a local product, has the slightest of edges in height and his 74% FT shooting shows potential, but Njoku (another local product who attended nearby St. John's College High School) was a well-regarded recruit out of high school, a good finisher in limited time, and might have an edge in terms of rebounding potential. (Alec) Loehr will at the very least provide experience, depth, and rebounding.

That should cover most of Navy's rotation as DeChellis tends to play 9 guys or so despite the abundance of depth afforded to him (like all Ivy schools, the military academies do not have scholarship restrictions). Of the remaining guys, don't be surprised to see Sean Yoder, Tyler Nelson, and Jaylen Walker see some minutes as well. Yoder will probably serve as backup point guard, but needs to improve dramatically shooting the ball. Nelson adds some shooting and rebounding, although his 32% shooting from deep comes on a relatively small sample size of 25 attempts. Walker will provide depth and sub in for anyone in foul trouble.

There may not be too much of an opportunity for the freshmen to make any noise given just how much returns from last year's team, but keep an eye out for three-star guard Trae Broadnax, who might be one of the most talented guards to commit to Navy in the recent past. Broadnax had offers from Florida State and Georgia, and was a great scorer in high school at powerhouse Montverde, where he played a key role alongside Gibson Jimerson (who is currently at SLU). He is highly skilled and can score at all three levels, although he isn't the most athletic. If he can prove to be a good shooter early on, he could play himself all the way into the starting lineup (or see at least major minutes off the bench).

Given how evenly matched we are with Navy in the preseason rankings, their previous success in the Veterans Classic against pretty good teams, the fact that they are playing at home, and the continuity of their roster, this should be a good early season test and close game. Our ability to speed the game up may determine how successful we are at putting up points, and although Navy is not overly turnover prone, our ability to generate mayhem on the defensive end will be an important factor to watch as well. I think we will come to play, but there are questions about on-court chemistry with it being just the first game of the season, and the noon tipoff is something to consider as well.

Predicted Score: Navy 68, GW 64, 34% chance to win. TeamRankings is predicting a similar margin of victory for Navy, 73-69 so the line of Navy -4 seems pretty consistent.

Many, many thanks (and Happy Thanksgiving everyone while we're on the subject of giving thanks) to DMVPiranha for his comprehensive game previews and I will assume, his forthcoming postgame analyses.  Nobody here will offer more information on our opponents and it's not even close.  In terms of watching what an opponent may strategically try to do and who we should be most concerned about on both ends of the floor, his information is invaluable.  A great deal of work must go into these detailed posts and as fans of this program, we should all feel extremely grateful. I know I do.

dmvpiranha wrote:

Surprisingly, the last meeting was nearly 10 years ago despite the two schools being under 40 miles from each other. In that game, Navy knocked us off at the Smith Center, 64-57.

That [painful] game was at the Verizon as part of the BB&T.
 

Howdy all. Is there a way to stream the game if you are a cord cutter like me and don't have cable or Hulu with Live TV?

Thanks, got a link for that? I think the streaming thing, CBS Sports HQ, is different from CBS Sports Network. Not sure though. When I go to the CBS Sports website it wants me to sign into another service https://www.cbssports.com/cbs-sports-network/

Looks like you have to either pay for one of those services or do a free trial, but there are some free trial options here https://thestreamable.com/channels/cbs-sports-network

Just learned Amir Harris out for the season, allocate his minutes to Jack, Bishop and Nelson (if we're losing or close), Brelsford, Ball and Leftwich (if it's out of hand).

Mentz, Back to the drawing board. In addition to no Lindo and Harris, Dean is not eligible until next semester.
 

GW +2  -110

Remember everyone that tip off (assuming it happens) is at NOON Eastern, which is "1200 Hours" in Navy-speak. For folks on West Coast, I reccomend a Chemex, for those of you where the game tips off after first call maybe a brut sparkling wine or cremant de Loirre.
 

GWRising wrote:

GW +2  -110

Looks like a “we neither know nor care about either of these teams and nobody is going to bet this game anyway so let’s make the home team a 2 point favorite” kind of line.