Don't forget Darnell Rogers starts for UMBC. Is Shawnta going to attend this game?

So what exactly is the story behind Darnell not playing for us?  Was it grades?

Last edited by fungerhall (12/06/2020 10:01 pm)

UMBC Retrievers

Date/Time: Monday December 7th @ 4:00 PM ET at UMBC Event Center in Baltimore, MD (not a big fan of the arena name - it almost sounds like they intentionally decided not to try to come up with something more interesting than that).
TV: americaeast.tv (honestly very happy we aren't playing Towson as it avoids having to subscribe to the terrible FloHoops, a service that is unnecessarily expensive to watch CAA hoops). Clicking on the link should take you to the game.
Record Last Year: 16-17, 8-8 (T-4th in America East)
Ranks: 209th (KenPom), 162nd (Bart Torvik), 217th (CBS)
Projected Record (as of now!): 14-9, 11-7 (T-2nd in America East)

Coaching Record: Ryan Odom, 83-53 in four seasons at UMBC, including an NCAA and CIT appearance. To say Odom has provided a boost to UMBC's basketball program is an understatement - he effectively got it off the ground, and that goes beyond the historic win against Virginia in the tournament. Prior to his arrival, the Retrievers had seven consecutive seasons in which they had failed to win 10 games. It definitely puts things in perspective - while we have no doubt endured some struggles the past few years (and in our history), I think we can pretty confidently say this program will never reach those lows for an extended period of time (even though I know we play in a higher conference). Odom took UMBC to their second ever NCAA tournament (the other happening during the 2007-08 season), but what was particularly impressive has been the continued success. In three of his four seasons, UMBC has won 20+ games. The Retrievers previously had two such times in the 30 years before that. He could perhaps be waiting out for the right opportunity, but I'd be really surprised if the guy doesn't get a higher job in the near future. Odom played at D3 power Hampden-Sydney under legendary coach Tony Shaver (who JC served as an assistant under at William & Mary for a few years), finishing as the all-time leader in threes made in Tiger history. It is clear that all of Odom's coaching experience has played a role in his success. He has become a head coach through the organic route - from graduate assistant at South Florida to assistant stints at Furman, UNC Asheville, American, and Virginia Tech before being promoted to associate head coach at Charlotte (and eventually interim head coach when the 49ers had their full-time coach take a leave of absence). Odom moved on to D2 Lenoir-Rhyne the following year, and in his lone year there he took the Bears to the postseason quarterfinals before UMBC came calling.

All Time Record: 6-3, with our team coming out on top in the past four contests (it is worth noting that we are 0-2 all time as the road team). In the most recent meeting 6 years ago, we defeated the Retrievers 83-60. Pato led the way with 23 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and 4 steals (including 9 made free throws) and KevLar added 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists.

Offensive Efficiency: 233rd (KenPom), 189th (Bart Torvik)*
Defensive Efficiency: 200th (KenPom), 156th (Bart Torvik)*
Tempo: 155th (KenPom), 246th (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 79.3% (34th in country)

* - I suspect the disparity between Torvik and KenPom has to do with BT weighting returning production more than Pomeroy. This disparity does appear to be more than other opponents we have faced so far.

Key Returning Players:
Darnell Rogers (SR; Baltimore, MD) 14 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.3 apg; 45% FG, 42% 3-pt, 68% FG** (appeared in only 7 games due to injury)
RJ Eytle-Rock (JR; London, UK) 11.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.3 apg; 40% FG, 36% 3-pt, 77% FT
Brandon Horvath (SR; West River, MD) 11 ppg, 6.7 rpg; 49% FG, 37% 3-pt, 62% FT
LJ Owens (JR; Annapolis, MD) 9.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.4 apg; 40% FG, 34% 3-pt, 85% FT
Dimitrije Spasojevic (SR; Vršac, SRB) 8.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg; 61% FG, 53% FT

Key Losses:
KJ Jackson (Graduated; Missouri City, TX) 13.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.7 spg; 43% FG, 32% 3-pt, 69% FT

Comments:
The Retrievers had an unspectacular OOC season last year when you adjust for the opponents they faced. If you take out the 4-0 record against non-D1 opponents, they finished out of conference with a 3-8 record, with perhaps the 25 point victory against a middling Drexel team being the best win. Against other D1 opponents, they failed to remain competitive, with only losses to St. Francis (PA) and Towson being within 10 points. That performance carried over to conference play, where the Retrievers began 0-4, including a loss to perennial bottom-feeder Binghamton. However, Odom did well to get UMBC on track, eventually getting the team to go 8-4 the rest of the way, which included an impressive win over Vermont and Anthony Lamb on the road. Unfortunately Vermont would ultimately get revenge in the conference tournament, eliminating the Retrievers in the semifinals. Looking back, at least UMBC could be satisfied that they knew how their season ended and not COVID-19 deciding it.

It's hard to pinpoint a single reason as to why UMBC stumbled right out of the gate, but injuries definitely played a role, including losing good old pal Darnell Rogers just seven games into the season due to a hyperextended leg. Shades of Shawnta were definitely apparent in the former GW signee's game when he played last season, using his 5'2" stature to his advantage by driving past his defenders consistently. It didn't matter if they were even a foot taller than him. Hopefully we don't see Rogers blow past Bishop like this consistently tomorrow (the two faced off while James was at LSU - Bishop had one of his better games of his freshman campaign with 9 points and 4 assists) otherwise it might be worth putting JNJ on him. If Darnell's man sagged off him, he also showed the ability to knock down the long ball at a very high rate (42% last year, 40% so far this season). Darnell has proved to be a very efficient initiator in Odom's pick-and-roll system - apart from his aforementioned shooting, Rogers also paced the team with 4.3 apg last season. Nice to see him find success in his hometown after a lost year at Florida Gulf Coast (coached by Dooley) and a year at New Mexico JUCO.

UMBC has fared much better in rematches against opponents from last season so far - after losing to Georgetown by 26 last year, they fell by just 8 a couple weeks back. They also got revenge on St. Francis (PA), winning by a convincing 15 points after falling by 3 in 2019. A big reason for this improvement (and the mere possibility they may be able to finally knock Vermont off the top spot this season) is the return of nearly all their impact players who are all juniors and seniors. Brandon Horvath is the tallest Retriever on the roster at 6'10", but brings more than just an interior presence and rebounding (Horvath led all UMBC players with 6.7 rebounds last year). LIke Hunter Dean, he can step out and shoot it, making 39 threes at a 37% rate last season. Horvath will be a guy to keep an eye on after leading the team in scoring so far this season with 16 a game. Like Rogers and Horvath, LJ Owens is a local guy and threat from deep, leading the team with 51 makes last season. He is more of a glue guy compared to the other two, but will get his chance to shine next season as a senior.

UMBC has recruited similarly to how we want to recruit at GW - focus on landing some local guys, but adding in some international flair as well. Two Brits, RJ Eytle-Rock and Daniel 'Dan' Akin, will play key roles in the rotation as well. Eytle-Rock can provide secondary ball handling, either with or without Darnell and does a good job on the glass. While Eytle-Rock is more of an offensive than defensive player, he does a lot of things well and a shooting split of 40/36/77 is pretty good. I am honestly not sure how a zone will look against UMBC, considering there are at least four guys named here who can shoot it from deep at a decent rate. Akin is a good defender and provides balance with scoring from the post. I somehow assumed Dimitrije Spasojevic would be a stretch big given he hails from Serbia, but he actually took no threes last year. Spasojevic is efficient as an interior presence, although he lets Akin handle more of the rebounding duties, a category UMBC has been strong in the past few years (especially on the defensive end).

The seventh key man in the lineup is former JUCO Keondre Kennedy, who was more of a rotational piece than starter as his shooting splits (under 40% from the field, 25% from deep) just didn't match the high bar set by the starters. He has seen a slight uptick in minutes following Jackson's graduation. Although he is 3-8 from three on the year, he is still shooting an inefficient 30% from the field. Kennedy does add some rebounding to the table.

The rest of the rotation will consist of Italian freshman Matteo Picarelli and sophomore wing Nathan Johnson. With Rogers and Eytle-Rock hanging around, Picarelli isn't likely to see as much run in his first year but will add some depth. The same will be the case for Johnson, who can fill in for 5-10 minutes a game if a guy needs rest. Although they haven't played much yet, it is worth mentioning that Szymon Wojcik (Missouri State) and Rico Quinton (East Carolina) have D1 experience under their belt.

I did not mention much about UMBC's defense, but the Retrievers do like generating pressure defensively, ranking in the top 30 in steal rate two of the last three seasons. Although last season was a down one in that category, it appears UMBC is back playing to that standard, averaging 10 steals on the year through two games. Preventing transition opportunities by taking care of the ball will be important.

Given the overall experience of UMBC and how competitive they have been so far, this will be a tough contest on the road for a team still learning. I am thinking of a performance similar to game 1 against Navy if we leave shooters open to operate. It will be interesting to see how we game plan for the Retrievers in a short period of time - whether we will be able to run their shooters off the line and also prevent an interior presence like Akin from having the kind of game Njoku or Ed Hampton had against us. I don't know if fatigue will be a factor as we have usually had several days between games up to this point, but hopefully we give it a good effort since we will have a week's worth of rest to prepare for South Carolina at home.

Predicted Score: UMBC 70, GW 68 (Haslametrics). ESPN gives us a 48.1% chance to win. Sounds about right as a true toss-up contest. 
 

ESPN+

According to one site I use, UMBC opened as a 3 1/2 point favorite, 98% of the cash has been bet on GW, and the line is now down to UMBC -1 1/2.  As a general rule of thumb, try not to go the same way that 98% of the cash is going.  My mom taught me that at a very young age.

Let's hope that everyone is healthy.  I believe the last time that GW played at UMBC, Jack Kvancz was telling someone that Mo Rice was under the weather when he actually was being suspended.  And that was not a good day for GW.

Thx Rising and FWIW I heard much the same story regarding Darnell. Just another page in GW often going petty instead of doing the right thing.

UPDATE: Today's 4pm Men's Basketball matchup vs UMBC will now be broadcast on America East TV!

Link to watch: https://americaeast.com/watch/default.aspx?Live=75&path=umbc

The Darnell story, no matter how he plays today, is a very ugly episode in the still playing out real GW story, whose underbelly turned out to be very different from the early narrative. 
  Not good or honorable to do that to any recruit, much less than the son of your own Hall of Famer.

Appreciate their efforts, as well, in posting the link.
Housekeeping question: do we have to sign up, etc. for America East TV?
Still getting messages from Flo Hoops, which is relentless.