I tend to agree with Barry that we're probably better than our record.  There was plenty of inconsistent play, poor defense, and unforced turnovers, etc throughout the first seven games, of which 4 of the losses were by a total of 9 points. We also held leads in those 4 losses (Hampton-7, Delaware-7, W&M-19, Charlotte-11), so had we played even a little better for a short stretch in all of those games we could have won two or three of them.  If we can do the things that brought us success in the Fordham game: maintaining deffensive effort for a full 40 minutes, being quick to trap and double team bigs in the low block, team rebounding (7 players had 4 rebounds or more), and share the ball (18 assists vs Fordham), etc. and also continue to improve our turnovers, we should be able to stay competitive in most conferenece games and win those when our threes are falling.  Even in the losses there have been bright spots that give me some optimism: Battle's offensive game looks much improved over last year, Bishop's offensive game has been stellar, we have three bigs that can all contribute and protect the rim, Moyer has the physical tools to be a tremedous defensive player and rebounder.  Here's hoping 2021 brings continued improvement and some wins. Happy New Year!

Duquesne Dukes

Dates/Times: Saturday January 2nd 2021 @ 12:30 PM ET and Sunday January 3rd 2021 @ 2:00 PM ET at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, DC.
TV: NBCSN (Saturday), ESPN+ (Sunday)
Ranks: 86th (KenPom), 79th (Bart Torvik), 83rd (CBS)
Record Last Year: 21-9, 11-7 (T-5th in A10)
Projected Record (as of now!): 11-9, 10-8 (T-6th in A10)

Coaching Record: Keith Dambrot, 56-38 in three seasons at Duquesne. Dambrot took over the Duquesne program in 2017 after 13 seasons at his alma mater, Akron. He had great success there, but ultimately grew frustrated that the MAC was a one-bid league. The Zips qualified for the NCAA tournament just three times in his tenure despite winning 20+ games in 12 out of 13 years (and in the other season they won 19 games!). Dambrot's dad played for Duquesne, prompting him to take on the rebuild in Pittsburgh. He also spent two seasons at Central Michigan, another MAC school before arriving in Akron. Leaving one school for another within the same conference does not happen too often, but of course the fact that Akron was his alma mater likely played a role. CMU did not exactly have much success in Dambrot's two years, so that seemed like a real shot in the dark hire by Akron, but it really paid off for them. He also notably coached LeBron for a couple years when James was in high school at St. Vincent-St. Mary HS. During his playing career at Akron, Dambrot played baseball (3B) in addition to basketball (PG).

All Time Record: 51-31. Our victory at their place* last year snapped a five game losing streak against them. In the 66-61 home loss last season, the game was tied going into halftime 32-32. The game remained close throughout, but I remember Carry made a clutch three pointer late in the game to give them the win. Jamison led the way with a double-double (20 points and 10 rebounds) and six made threes, while JNJ added 14 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals. We went a rough 5-11 from the line.

 (* - technically at RMU's arena).

Offensive Efficiency: 84th (KenPom), 60th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 89th (KenPom), 108th (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 172nd (KenPom), 187th (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 83.5% (20th in country)

Key Returning Players:
Marcus Weathers (RS SR; Overland Park, KS) 14.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.3 bpg; 56% FG, 16% 3-pt, 67% FT
      Last season against us @ GW: 13 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks (6-11 FG, 1-3 FT) in 30 minutes.

Sincere Carry (JR; Farrell, PA) 12.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 5.3 apg; 41% FG, 34% 3-pt, 75% FT
      Last season against us @ GW: 11 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists (3-9 FG, 2-4 3-pt, 3-5 FT) in 36 minutes.

Michael Hughes (RS SR; Kansas City, MO) 10.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.5 spg, 2.7 bpg; 57% FG, 28% 3-pt, 65% FT
      Last season against us @ GW: 12 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 blocks (4-9 FG, 0-1 3-pt, 4-5 FT) in 33 minutes.

Tavian Dunn-Martin (RS SR; Huntington, WV) 10.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.4 spg; 35% FG, 35% 3-pt, 85% FT
      Last season against us @ GW: 12 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals (4-7 FG, 4-5 3-pt) in 29 minutes.

Maceo Austin (SO; Sharon, PA) 7 ppg, 4 rpg, 1.6 apg; 40% FG, 29% 3-pt, 72% FT
      Last season against us @ GW: 6 points, 3 assists (2-3 FG, 2-3 3-pt) in 31 minutes.

Lamar Norman Jr. (JR; Grand Rapids, MI) 6.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg; 37% FG, 34% 3-pt, 85% FT
      Last season against us @ GW: 3 points, 3 rebounds (1-4 FG, 1-3 3-pt) in 17 minutes.

Key Losses:
Baylee Steele (Graduated; Norwalk, IA) 8.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg; 47% FG, 34% 3-pt, 64% FT

Comments:
Duquesne continued their steady climb in the A10 in Dambrot's third year, reaching 20+ wins overall for the first time in over 10 years and going from 10 to 11 wins in conference. After being picked a respectable 8th place in the 2019-20 preseason poll, the Dukes raced out to a 10-0 start, with many CBB pundits wondering whether they had underestimated Duquesne and Dambrot's coaching ability. They did admittedly play a rather cupcake OOC schedule (320th nationally), but the start was impressive nonetheless. The Dukes would go on to lose their final two OOC games, but got off to a great start in conference play as well, victorious in their first five A10 contests and proving to hold their own the rest of the way.

This season has come with even higher expectations for the Dukes, partly due to roster continuity. Unfortunately, COVID has plagued the Dukes the past several months, perhaps more than any other team in the A10 (save Fordham). It began in October, where a player tested positive, causing Duquesne to miss the first two weeks of practice. After splitting with Little Rock and UNC Greensboro (two good mid-majors, although UNCG somehow managed to lose to Coppin State on the road) December in particular was a hellish month for the Dukes, with 14 people within the program testing positive early in the month. After serving the mandatory two-week isolation period, the bad luck kept coming, with a couple of more positive tests surfacing just before the Dukes were leaving to play their final OOC games. The team was getting ready to play SLU at their place after sitting out for two more weeks only for the Billikens to test positive for COVID. Tomorrow's game will be Duquesne's first in a full calendar month, which may play to our advantage, at least for game 1.

Duquesne will arrive in Foggy Bottom with quite a bit of experience at all positions. Preseason all-conference selections Marcus Weathers (second team) and Sincere Carry (third team) are the headliners. Weathers, who caught Dambrot's eye when he played for rival Miami (OH) in the MAC, gives Duquesne great versatility. He can play 2-4 in a given lineup. His ability to eat minutes at the 4 is key for a Dukes team that is not overly tall - they rank 318th in the country in average height. Weathers led the team in rebounding last year and is a good passer as well. Defensively, he is a good on-ball defender and has the ability to contest shots with his verticality. Carry plateaued a bit last season after bursting onto the scene his freshman year. He showed slight improvements with his three point and FT shooting, but otherwise his statistics were nearly identical across the board from year 1. Carry is one of the best passers in the A10 and will likely eat up most of their minutes at the point while pitching in with some rebounds. His ability to find gaps in defenses and get to the hoop will be something to watch out for - we will want to stay in front of him as much as possible. Bishop vs. Carry should be a fun side matchup to watch.

Michael Hughes returns up front to give the Dukes a real inside presence. Hughes is a more than respectable finisher and rebounder down low, and in our matchups last year showed the ability to pass out of a double team. Where he truly shines though is defensively - he has great anticipation for a big, actually leading the team in steals last year and consistently swatting any shots that opponents try to take near the hoop. While Weathers and Carry are the primary options offensively, I feel like Hughes has been the one who has hurt us in our recent matchups. Let's try to shut him down this weekend - he really annoys me with his constant whining and complaining of fouls called on him (my observation from last year's matchups). With Steele departing this past offseason, expect Austin Rotroff to back him up and give him a breather.

Like Hughes, Tavian Dunn-Martin followed Dambrot from Akron. Dunn-Martin is the designated shooter on the team, fitting in perfectly as the sixth man off the bench. He can get hot in a hurry and will launch from deep as soon as he has the slightest of space, so we will need to watch out for him. He canned 71 threes last season and also has the ability to facilitate the offense to give Carry a breather. At 5'8", Dunn-Martin also uses his low center of gravity on defense to knock the ball out of the opposition's hands.

Other key complementary options include junior Lamar Norman Jr. and sophomore Maceo Austin. Norman is another spot up shooter, but does not do much else. Austin showed great promise in his freshman year, displaying great decision making within the flow of the offense and adding four rebounds a game. He hit somewhat of a freshman wall late last season and ultimately faded down the stretch but overall had a solid first year in the program.

The wildcard is the addition of Pittsburgh transfer Ryan Murphy, who decided to return for his final year of college ball after considering professional options (I believe he had originally committed to Tulane after leaving Pitt - he ultimately ended up traveling less than two miles to find his new destination). Assuming he is eligible, Murphy provides another scoring outlet for Duquesne, although he was a bit inefficient at times last season with the Panthers. He at the very least is a threat from deep, knocking down over 40 long balls  in 2019-20. Murphy may take some playing time from others who played deeper roles off the bench, including sophomore Amari Kelly, and freshmen Chad Baker, Andre Harris, Tyson Acuff, Tochukwu 'Toby' Okani, and Michael 'Mike' Bekelja. We may see some of these guys anyways since we are playing them back-to-back. Duquesne certainly has the advantage when it comes to depth.

Will conclude by summarizing my thoughts on the Fordham game, since I didn't get around to saying anything.

Happy for the team that they got the W, and most importantly, overcoming adversity heading into the contest. Ball movement was far and away the best I've seen for a 40 minute stretch, as was the defense.

The give-and-go with Jamison was a play we found to be very useful, and I liked the amount of cutting we did off the ball to get guys cleaner looks near the hoop.

We finally got to see Bishop off the ball for periods, and to no one's surprise, it ended up being really helpful for our offense. Jamison and James no doubt were big keys to our success, but I would give the game ball to Lincoln and Tyler.

Something this team needed in the worst way was a few guys who weren't actively looking to get their shots in/put up points, but actually move the ball and be glue guys within the offense (unselfish guys). Lincoln in particular has been really fantastic the past couple of games. I have been very impressed with his active hands on defense, and he shows no fear despite being a freshman. He also made some great passes offensively (four assists to no turnovers) and hit a three early in the game (his other shots missed were bad luck) to go with a team-leading eight rebounds where he boxed out well.

Tyler handled the point for stretches in the game, and continued to play at a high level, something he showed when he got the chance during OOC play. He also did a great job of passing the ball, finding James a couple of times (finally had Bishop and Brelsford share the backcourt - again no surprise that our chemistry improved on the court). Tyler is a very good shot maker, so getting him on the floor gives us another scoring option.

At this point, we know James and Jamison are our top two options, so it will be interesting whether we can find a consistent third option (although that could in theory change based on the game - it was Sloan against Fordham, other times it may be Matt, Chase, Hunter, or a freshman).

Nice to see Sloan have a strong half after an early airball that carried over from Charlotte. Matt did a good job not forcing things and battling down low for rebounds as usual. Would have liked a couple more plays for both Chase and Hunter offensively, but both had some bright moments defensively. I would still say our frontcourt was a bit shaky against Fordham considering Ohams was still sidelined. Soriano and Eysi aren't dominant forces inside, yet we found ourselves to be in a bit of foul trouble down low.

Glad we finally got to see Noel back playing. While he is still a little raw offensively, he has quietly been really good defensively and altering shots when he has been on the floor. We will definitely need him in A10 play.

Liked seeing more intensity in general defensively, and double teaming the post was very effective (although I'm not sure whether we can pull that off against stronger teams). Diving for loose balls still isn't there (Hunter was the lone exception) but it did appear that we finally had some fortunate bounces fall into our hands instead of the opposition for once - that was bound to happen sooner or later! Also loved how much energy Coach Bousley was showing on the sidelines going into every timeout.

Hoping we can carry this over to a much better opponent in Duquesne. A split would be a success!

Predicted Score: Duquesne 78, GW 71. 24% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 29.8% to extend our winning streak to 2. Duquesne has opened as a 8.5 point road favorite.
 

BGF wrote:

  I may be in the minority here, but I don't think we're as bad as our record.

 

According to KenPom, we are 2nd worst in the nation, ahead of only Kentucky, in the “Luck” factor.  What that really is, is a measure of whether the metrics suggest a team is better than its record - so according to Pomeroy, we clearly are better than our record, and in fact only Kentucky exceeds us in that regard.

Wow, opening line Duquesne -5, now Duquesne -8.5...

Really dmvpiranha? One preview for two games? Did you think we would not notice you are getting lazy?!?
In the immortal words of the late Ernie Banks, "LET´S PLAY TWO!"

wtfresca wrote:

Wow, opening line Duquesne -5, now Duquesne -8.5...

I never recall a line moving so much.  Interestingly, the money line opened at GW +350 and has stayed around there, in some places even dropping.   You would think all that Duquesne action would have moved the money line also.   I wonder what I am missing.  Could there be an injury or something else that is causing us not to be at full strength that we are not aware of?  In any event, I would have guessed that playing at home (it still matters) against a team that is only playing its 3rd game would have made us from a 2 to 5 point dog, meaning a game that should be competitive but lacking the horses to pull it out.  Anyway, I think I love GW +8.5.   I think I even like GW +350 on the money line.  I hope that Fordham did not put stupid thoughts in my head.
 

Gwmayhem wrote:

Well, I have accessed 9 different betting sites and nobody is claiming an opening line of Duq. -5 for this game.  One had as low a number as -6 1/2 and the vast majority opened the game between 7 1/2 and 8 1/2.  Would be very curious as to where wtfresca saw -5.  At this moment, my site is showing GW +7 and +255 on the M/L indicating that the public is backing GW today.

He saw it on College Basketball Las Vegas Odds.
https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

I took GW +6.5, which would have a payoff of GW -102.  If I took it at 8, the payoff would have been GW -137, so I decreased the line to improve my payoff.  I am hoping that a couple of CCs of confidence (Fordham win) and chemistry will make this a good bet.   The money line on my betting site had it as GW +199, which is much worse than the GW +260 - 300 that is on my posted link, so I stayed away, even though I am still hopeful for an ambush.
 

I'm seeing Duquesne as a 6.5 to 7.5 point favorite, DMVPiranha mentioned in his preview that this will be Duquesne's first game in a month, they've only played 2 games. Even though Duquesne has an experienced squad coming back, I'm guessing they'll have a lot of rust with all the time off. Maybe they'll come out flat like Fordham did!! Having no fans is probably the reason Duquesne is such a big favorite, every game is like a neutral game at this point, so the perceived lesser home team isn't going to a favorable line because they are at home. 

During a recent ESPN game, the announcers mentioned that since gyms are empty, visiting teams are gaining an advantage by having their bench cheer and make a lot of noise which can give the feel of playing at home. Has GW been doing this? If they haven't will they do it in the future. 

Anyone know what GW is ATS lately? Can't be good.