The Rams trended in the wrong direction last year and many pundits expected this slide to continue into 2020-21.  No such luck so far as far as the rest of the A10 is concerned.  VCU is 9-3 with a bad loss to Penn state, a good loss to West Virginia and a head scratching 15 point loss their last time out to Rhody.  Most of their names aside from Bones Hyland might be unfamiliar but the way they play continues to be recognizable.  

VCU has 11 players averaging at least 9 minutes per game of playing time.  By contrast, GW has 8 players averaging just under 11 minutes though this would be 10 had Maceo and JNJ remained with the team.  VCU plays defense...their 40.1 FG % on d is tops in the A10.  Their 30.2% against 3 point shooting is 4th in the conference and this includes surrendering an uncharacteristic 8-14 against Rhode Island.  One would think that aggressively defending against 3 point shots against GW will be drilled into their heads.  They steal the ball just over 11 times per game which has to be among the most in the country.  They block 5.67 shots per game, also tops in the conference.  Opponents average nearly 19 turnovers per game against them.

Interestingly, GW is only making 6.4 3's per game which is 11th best in the A10.  Their percentage shooting 3's is 8th.  Given that this team has been built to take (and make) a high number of 3's, I suspect this is an area of disappointment so far, one which will likely not be rectified tomorrow.  Instead, GW must keep its poise and that means hanging onto the ball.  VCU is not a great shooting or scoring team.  Hyland scores over 18 per game and then there is tremendous balance with just one additional double figure scorer.  There has hopefully been ample time (Covid notwithstanding) to work on bringing the ball up against the press.  This game pits havoc against mayhem.  Advantage to havoc which has been on full display this season.

VCU Rams

Date/Time: Wednesday January 13th @ 2:00 PM ET at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, DC.
TV: NBC Sports Washington (local), ESPN+ (out of area)
Ranks: 60th (KenPom), 48th (Bart Torvik), 100th (CBS)
Record Last Year: 18-13, 8-10 (T-8th in A10)
Projected Record (as of now!): 19-8, 12-6 (T-2nd in A10)

Coaching Record: Mike Rhoades, 61-36 in three seasons at VCU. Rhoades has won at least 18 games in all three years in Richmond, including a very successful second year where the Rams won 28 games and made the tournament. Prior to that, he spent three seasons at Rice, winning 23 games his final year before bolting for VCU (that is very impressive at a program like Rice, not a very easy place to win at - shoutout Scott Pera who has seemingly figured things out after a couple tough years - the Owls are playing well this year). Rhoades was an associate head coach at VCU for several seasons and spent over a decade along the sidelines at Randolph-Macon. A four year player at Lebanon Valley (D3) in PA, Rhoades is the school's all-time leading scorer. His dad was a state senator in Pennsylvania.

All Time Record: 3-15, and VCU has won four of the past five meetings by an average of 21.5 points. Obviously VCU is one of the newer members of the A10, but right now there is no team that we have faced in the league that we've fared worse against all-time. Beyond just the overall W-L record and the recent margins, the Rams have just always been a team we've struggled against - they quite literally have owned us. Only four of the 18 contests have even been decided by single digits (of course one of those was the infamous Goss game). In last year's 75-51 loss at their place (when VCU was playing their worst basketball), Maceo led the way with 12 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 steals, while Jamison (10 points, 4 rebounds), and AT (10 points, 7 rebounds off the bench) finished in double figures as well. We have finished with at least 14 turnovers in each of the past five meetings. What makes VCU's havoc defense so effective is its ability to wear down opponents after halftime. We've entered halftime in all of these games more or less right with them. However, coming out of the locker room we have consistently struggled to get it going against their pressure. In the past six losses, VCU has outscored us by an average of 15 points after halftime. I'll just leave it at that. I am hopeful one day we can erase that narrative.

Offensive Efficiency: 110th (KenPom), 117th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 21st (KenPom), 10th (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 84th (KenPom), 83rd (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 37.3% (297th in country)

Key Returning Players:
Nah'Shon Hyland (SO; Wilmington, DE) 9 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.8 apg; 43% FG, 43% 3-pt, 67% FT
      Last season against us: 13 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists (5-10 FG, 3-6 3-pt) in 25 minutes.

Key Losses:
Marcus Santos-Silva (Transferred to Texas Tech; Taunton, MA) 12.8 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.1 spg, 1.3 bpg; 57% FG, 55% FT
De'Riante Jenkins (Graduated; Eutawville, SC) 10.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2 apg, 1.9 spg; 40% FG, 33% 3-pt, 88% FT
Marcus Evans (Graduated; Chesapeake, VA) 9.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.4 spg; 37% FG, 38% 3-pt, 74% FT
Issac Vann (Graduated; Bridgeport, CT) 7.3 ppg, 2 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.1 spg; 41% FG, 34% 3-pt, 79% FT

Comments:
VCU entered last season with a target on their back, fresh off a season where they won 28 games and made the tournament, falling to Collin Smith and the UCF Knights. A veteran-laden Ram squad was eager to make it back to the tournament fully healthy and advance past the first round of games. VCU was the preseason favorite to win it all. They certainly looked the part early on, winning their first six games of the year, including a win over Bishop's #23 LSU squad (he scored seven points off the bench) and finishing 10-3 overall OOC (they lost heartbreakers back-to-back against Purdue and Tennessee).

Unfortunately, once conference play rolled around VCU seemingly fell apart, partly due to their senior class sputtering out. Evans just never stayed healthy all year and Jenkins left the season midway through for personal reasons, leaving the Rams to play guys who were not overly experienced in the havoc system. The Rams stayed afloat until early February, but the wheels came completely off at the end of the year. VCU lost seven of their last eight games to end the year (guess who the one win was against).

Given the way things ended and the number of pieces graduating (coupled with Santos-Silva leaving for Texas Tech, which only seemed to make VCU look even worse on paper) VCU was picked 10th in the preseason A10 poll for 2020-21. I don't care how poorly VCU played towards the end of the year, 10th is crazy for a team with such a strong culture and identity. The team is young, but it's clear the chemistry and identity of this team is a lot better compared to last season. I will say they have outplayed all expectations any could have expected, probably including some VCU fans.

If there was any positive from last season, it was the potential of current sophomore Nah'Shon 'Bones' Hyland, who is definitely on track to earning first-team all-A10 honors, whether that is this season or next. Hyland was basically thrown into the fire to lead the team right away when Evans and Jenkins were sidelined, and did a good job all things considered. He notably did not cough up the ball as much as you'd expect from the freshman. Of course, Hyland's biggest asset is his shooting, especially from distance. Bones made 63 threes last season at a ridiculously efficient 43% rate. If the game is close tomorrow, expect Hyland to be the guy in crunch time.

Of course, the way VCU plays effectively requires them to go 12-13 deep to keep guys fresh when playing pressure defense. While Hyland is the biggest name returning, guards KeShawn Curry, Jarren McAllister, and Jimmy 'Tre' Clark III have also spent time in the havoc scheme. Curry is a good passer, although he experienced a sophomore slump of sorts shooting the ball. He is not a good free throw shooter, something to monitor during the game although our team tends to not foul too much (our biggest plus on defense). He did go 5-6 from the line in our contest last season. Curry provided a great spark for them off the bench with 13 points. He has missed some time with a shoulder injury this year, but should be good to go for tomorrow. So far, he has shot the ball more like Steph Curry in his junior year, shooting 40% from distance. McAllister did show some promise as a slasher finishing near the rim although he could not find the mark consistently from distance. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in December and will miss the rest of the season. Clark also struggled in his first season shooting the ball. He has emerged this year as a better finisher inside but is yet to find his stroke from three.

Forwards Vincent 'Vince' Williams, Jr, Corey Douglas, and Hason Ward provide some experience up front. Williams is probably their best returning shooter from the line and plays great on-ball defense when in the game, but he too struggled to finish consistently last season. He has flipped the script this season though, shooting 41% from deep and emerging as their second leading scorer. Douglas is a stretch forward who can also bang down low and contribute on the glass. As one of the few seniors on the team, a young Rams team will hope to get some leadership from him. Ward had a very strong freshman campaign, although he was usually playing behind a lot of guys. He put up solid numbers in limited time and finished very efficiently down low. All signs seem to point to a breakout sophomore campaign especially with Santos-Silva no longer around. He strikes me as a guy we might struggle with down low as our defense has been leaky near the hoop.

VCU also brought in a promising group of freshmen and transfers to support their returning production. Their freshmen have received big minutes right away. Adrian 'Ace' Baldwin, Jr. is arguably the highlight, a name that should be familiar to those who follow Baltimore basketball. MSJ vs. SFA is always a must see HS game. In recent years, it was always a matchup between Bishop/Brelsford vs. Baldwin, so that should be a fun side matchup to watch for in the game. Baldwin is a savvy player who can really shoot it and make shots in big moments. You have to respect his pull-up jumper, but if you play him close, he has the ability to blow past his man. Baldwin has fit the VCU scheme perfectly so far - averaging two steals a game, shooting 41% from deep, and leading the team with 4.6 assists per game. Jamir Watkins has been the most productive of the frosh from a scoring standpoint, averaging 7 points a game while shooting really well - 51% from the floor, and 41% from deep. Josh Banks probably plays a deeper reserve role this year, but possesses great long-term potential. Mikeal Brown-Jones is a very heralded recruit who will provide rebounding and further depth up front.

Transfers Levi Stockard III (Kansas State) and Brendan Medley-Bacon (Coppin State) enter the fold as well up front. Stockard was not overly productive in his years in Manhattan but has been a nice presence up front this year for the Rams. Medley-Bacon has played sparingly this year, but adds shot-blocking to a VCU team that is not overly tall up front (he is 7'1").

It goes without saying that this will be a tough contest. Not expecting a win, but I'm really hoping we just keep it competitive unlike in most years. This version of the VCU team is particularly strong shooting the ball from distance - Williams, Curry, Watkins, and Baldwin are all over 40% and Hyland is not too far behind. This definitely is a team to play man against in halfcourt settings, and we have had success running guys off the line in the past. Turnovers will be key as usual. Normally, I would say against a team like VCU to slow things down a bit on offense, but I think it would be a mistake to play in the halfcourt more than we have to. If VCU is looking to trap in the backcourt, we need to look forward and advance the ball quickly and drive the ball towards the hoop for fast break opportunities. Too often, we pull the ball back and slow things down when we face them. Ball movement is always a must, but particularly in this one. If we aren't moving around and passing the ball, VCU will surely force us to take a poor contested fadeaway shot. We have also played right into their trap defense the past several years. Keep the ball away from the sidelines as much as possible - that allows them to basically have two other invisible defenders on the floor. It feels like we have seemingly had a young team against them the past several years, so keeping our composure may be a challenge, especially in the second half if VCU makes a run. 

Predicted Score: VCU 77, GW 67. 17% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 29.3% chance to get the W. VCU opens up as a 10 point road favorite. Other sites have them anywhere between a 9 to 11 point favorite. 
 

Great write up DMV!

I’ve got VCU at -19.5. I’m not getting my hopes up at all despite some of the momentum gained from recent wins and news on the recruiting front. Still, I’ll be watching for signs of progress - pushing the ball up court at a faster pace, greater ball distribution, movement off ball, and a little more grit on defense. Just give me one of these JC!

I hate to be the one who asks the question (especially since last time, I was quite prescient), but with the House scheduled to vote on impeachment about the time this game tips off, will the civil order situation again affect GW´s game today?

(and, yes, I know the correct answer is "hush you")

Last edited by GW Alum Abroad (1/13/2021 10:52 am)

Gwmayhem wrote:

How about one of my favorite trivia questions:  When GW faced VCU for the second time ever, it took place during the first round of the CBI Tournament.  The game was played the day after all of the postseason tournament pairings had been announced.  The Colonials, or at least one Colonial, had thought their season was finished because one member of the team had already gone home for Spring Break and could not make it back to campus in time for the Monday night tip.  Can you name the GW no-show that night?

I believe that would be Jabari Edwards

Well done Rising.  At the time, I had thought that would be the end of Jabari's GW career but lo and behold, he played for GW the following season.

Confirmed.  Lindo suited up for today's game.

I think we have four turnovers in the first 70 seconds

Well, not playing smart to begin with. To many turnovers. Bad