My DVR is also showing 4:30

"comes to town"?!?!? Thanks to the Klu Klux Kooks this game is way the (bleep) out in Fairfax, Virginia. Only someone who is from Fairfax would consider it "part" of Washington, kind of like a roadie claiming to be "part" of the Rolling Stones.

ESPN is showing this as 230 but clearly the game is 430

 

I believe George Mason allows a certain number of fans to attend games. If fans can attend, is anyone planning to attend this game? Will GW be selling tickets for the game? 

GW as +8.5 as opening line.

Dayton Flyers

Dates/Times: Sunday January 17th @ 4:30 PM ET at EagleBank Arena in Fairfax, VA and Wednesday January 20th @ 7:00 PM ET at UD Arena in Dayton, OH.
TV: NBCSN (Sunday), ESPN+ (Wednesday)
Ranks: 76th (KenPom), 87th (Bart Torvik), 42nd (CBS)
Record Last Year: 29-2, 18-0 (Take a guess which place in A10)
Projected Record (as of now!): 13-10, 9-9 (T-7th in A10)

Coaching Record: Anthony Grant, 64-31 in three seasons at his alma mater, Dayton. As a player, Grant and the Flyers made it to the elite eight before falling to the Hoyas, the eventual champion in 1984. He first got into the coaching ranks in 1987 as an assistant and was also a math teacher at Miami Senior HS in hometown Miami. Based on that, he strikes me as a big analytics guy. Grant got his first crack at head coach in 2006 at VCU after stints as a D1 assistant at Stetson, Marshall, and Florida. The Rams, still members of the CAA, were nearly untouchable in his three seasons there, finishing first all those years and making the NCAA tournament twice (NIT in the other). VCU went 45-9 in conference play during that span which is an unbelievable feat. Grant was promoted to take over as coach at Alabama, where he didn't really fare too poorly - the Tide finished over .500 overall in conference over his six seasons there. However, the lack of NCAA appearances (just one) probably played a role in his firing. Grant then reunited with Billy Donovan in the NBA ranks at Oklahoma City (at Florida, he was an assistant under him for 10 seasons) before getting the call from Dayton to replace the departed Archie Miller (who has had middling results at Indiana thus far).

All Time Record: 18-19, and the Flyers have won the past three contests. In last year's meeting (which ended up being their finale in an unforgettable season) Dayton pulled away 76-51 thanks to a dominant second half where they put up 50 points on us. We were right with them for roughly three quarters of the game or so, and were only down one at halftime. Unfortunately, it became an Obi dunk fest after halftime, and clips from that game were consistently replayed whenever Dayton was brought up on CBB shows. Toppin finished with a game-high 27. Jamison was the only Colonial to finish in double figures with 16 points and 7 rebounds, both which led the team in the game.

Offensive Efficiency: 62nd (KenPom), 81st (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 100th (KenPom), 113th (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 312th (KenPom), 302nd (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 51.6% (216th in country)

Key Returning Players:
Jalen Crutcher (SR; Memphis, TN) 15.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.9 apg; 47% FG, 42% 3-pt, 87% FT
      Last season against us: 21 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks; 8-14 FG, 5-8 3-pt in 33 minutes.

Ibi Watson (RS SR; Pickerington, OH) 10.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.3 apg; 50% FG, 39% 3-pt, 85% FT
      Last season against us: 9 points, 4 rebounds; 3-6 FG, 3-5 3-pt in 26 minutes.

Rodney Chatman (RS SR; Lithonia, GA) 7.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.3 spg; 40% FG, 36% 3-pt, 72% FT
      Last season against us: 3 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals; 1-5 FG, 1-2 3-pt in 31 minutes.

Key Losses:
Obadiah 'Obi' Toppin (Left early for pro career; Brooklyn, NY) 20 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1 spg, 1.2 bpg; 63% FG, 39% 3-pt, 70% FT
Trey Landers (Graduated; Dayton, OH) 10.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.1 spg; 57% FG, 31% 3-pt, 60% FT
Ryan Mikesell (Graduated; Saint Henry, OH) 8.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.9 apg; 48% FG, 26% 3-pt, 68% FT

Comments:
There's no Toppin the dream season Dayton had last year. The Flyers surpassed all expectations of them coming into the 2019-20 season and then some, emerging as a legitimate national title contender over the course of the season. It's crazy to think considering they were picked third in the A10 preseason poll behind VCU and Davidson, with the doubt coming from all the transfers they had brought in that finally gained eligibility to play after sitting out a year.

Those doubts quickly went away during the Maui Invitational a few weeks into OOC play. The Flyers had announced their arrival as a force to be reckoned with, knocking off Georgia and Virginia Tech in consecutive days by 19 and 27 respectively. Coming into the UGA game, all the attention was on Anthony Edwards, that dude who said he'd rather be a rapper or NFL player than an NBA player despite going #1 in this past NBA draft. The Flyers did eventually fall in overtime to Kansas in the tournament final as Azubuike was a bit too much for the Flyers to handle underneath, but Dayton was far from finished. Other than another brief setback in overtime against a Colorado team with a strong defense the Flyers proved to be too tough to match up against.

According to CBS Sports, at the conclusion of OOC play Dayton was shooting north of 62% from inside the arc for the season. That was the second best mark in the history of college basketball - just behind Princeton who set the record nearly three decades ago. I definitely feel for Dayton fans, and would be heartbroken if our team was playing at that level and never got to play in the NCAA tournament. The Flyers finished the year #4 in KenPom and had the second best team in offensive efficiency. Grant won National Coach of the Year, the first A10 coach to do so since Martelli did it with St. Joe's in 03-04 (Coach Cal also received that award at UMass in 95-96). With their win against us, Dayton went undefeated in A10 play, the first team to do that since we did it in 05-06 (we also had the best win percentage in all of college basketball that year).

As expected, Obi left for the NBA, drafted eighth overall by his hometown Knicks. Losing a player to the NBA would set any team back the following year, but on top of that the Flyers lost two glue guys in Landers and Mikesell, who I would say are arguably equally big losses. That might sound crazy, but that duo knew their role within the offense which enabled Dayton to be so unselfish and always get a good shot in the halfcourt. Landers in particular was a good on-ball defender as well and finisher inside. While the Flyers fared pretty well during OOC season this year with two wins against the SEC Mississippi schools and playing a solid SMU squad tough, it is clear their loss of versatility up front with the departure of this trio has affected them.

It's not all bad news for Dayton though as their backcourt remains relatively intact. Jalen Crutcher is now the undisputed alpha on the team. The number of clutch shots he hit last year was ridiculous, to the point that I was surprised he didn't get his name changed to Jalen Clutcher. The SLU shot was the most memorable, but he also hit the game-tying shot against Kansas to force overtime and put the Flyers up against Colorado before the Buffs hit the winning shot. Crutcher is a gifted passer, pacing the team in assists, but he is also a guy you just cannot give any space behind the arc. His five threes against us is evidence of that, but for the season he shot a scorching 42% from distance.

Ibi Watson is one of the biggest beneficiaries of Crutcher's dimes. The former Michigan Wolverine has shined since given the chance to play more at Dayton. His biggest asset is his shooting - he too can get it going from three, shooting 39% last year. Rodney Chatman (formerly at Chattanooga) backed up Crutcher last year as the first guy off the bench at the point position (3.2 apg). While he is not as prolific offensively as Crutcher or Watson, he is still a three point threat (36%). Most importantly, Chatman is a very good defender along the perimeter, leading the team in steals last season. In order to have a chance at defeating Dayton, we will need to slow this trio down, or at the very least get them off the three point line as much as possible.

The rest of Dayton's rotation will be more unfamiliar, as Chase Johnson once again left the team midseason, Dwayne Cohill tore his ACL during the offseason and is out for the year, and Jhery Matos left for Charlotte (we already faced him). The only other returning rotation guy is Nebraska transfer Jordy Tshimanga. He is a good finisher around the rim and adds rebounding (leads the team with 8 rpg this year), but the Canadian definitely has the tendency to pick up fouls in a hurry. Tshimanga usually only sees roughly 20 minutes or so of game action partly because of this, as he has picked up 3+ fouls in 9 of Dayton's 10 contests this year.

The newcomer headliners are Finnish freshman Mustapha Amzil and USC transfer Elijah Weaver. Amzil reclassed from 2021 midway through the year and has played far better than the average freshman. He has finished in double figures in each of his first five collegiate games and has replaced the rebounding left by Johnson. Amzil has also already become one of the better defenders on the team as well. Weaver falls under the Lindo situation in that he was expected to redshirt the year but chose to play after the NCAA ruled this year not count against eligibility. He is one of three Flyers to average over 3 assists per game and is good at finishing inside the arc, although he is still finding his stroke from distance.

We may see other members of the current Flyer freshman class, including Zimife 'Zimi' Nowkeji, Koby Brea, R.J. Blakney (Hagerstown native/former GW target), and Moulaye Sissoko. All but Brea are forwards who provide some much needed depth up front. Sissoko is the best rebounder of the bunch, but overall all these guys have struggled to finish shooting the ball so far minus at the free throw line.

This effectively feels like another back-to-back for us since Wednesday's game will also be against Dayton. Hoping we can get the split, given Dayton has already fallen to Fordham and La Salle this year so they can be inconsistent. Tempo will be something to watch in the game - we are currently 4th fastest in the A10, while Dayton is third slowest. Whoever can dictate how fast the game is played could come out the victor. At first glance, we may not have too much depth but I might give us the edge over Dayton actually.

Was really proud of the team with how they competed against VCU. I was hoping we could keep the game within single digits, and we were able to do that. As expected, we stayed with them for the first half before things started falling apart a bit after halftime but usually we never recover and end up losing by 20+, so it was nice to see us go on a run down the stretch. While I will say I wish some of those possessions at the end of the game could have gone better (a few missed shots by Matt which weren't good looks - would have preferred Sloan or Tyler to take those shots), we played hard for all 40 minutes which is a clear improvement from earlier in the year.

Sloan had to play more because of foul trouble, but it was clear his shot was on and wish he had more attempts. Nice to see Chase have a bounce back game offensively. Loved Matt's effort on the glass as usual and more importantly his leadership encouraging guys along the sideline (he is near automatic from the line as well). I think Moyer will be a big factor in the Dayton games, especially the road game where he will be motivated to play hard just 80 miles from his hometown in Ohio. I didn't get the sense VCU had dominant bigs, and I think Dayton isn't the worst matchup in the world up front either. We still really made it easy for VCU to get into the lane, but the rotating over of our bigs was pretty solid. I just wish we didn't put so much pressure for them to get a stop and rebound each time though because our guards couldn't stay in front of their man. Was most impressed with Ricky. His anticipation and long arms was really disruptive on Wednesday, and I think right away he was already 5x better a defender than the next guy on the team in his first action (he was already one of the top guys at Maryland on D, although I will say that everyone on this team has become a much better defender during conference play). VCU was sloppy, but Lindo nearly doubled our team average in steals for the game in just a few minutes. He also showed leadership right away, giving James encouragement when he was struggling. It's amazing how Bishop had an off game shooting the ball, yet still somehow finished with a new career high in points. Really hope Jamison can make it back soon. (Also want to thank fungerhall, LSF, and Thomas for the kind words about the VCU preview in the other thread!)

Predicted Score: Dayton 74, GW 69. 30% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a similar 33.4% chance to win. Dayton opens up as an eight point favorite.
 

Against VCU I saw a reconstructed team with some real talent (and some real deficiencies) that was missing its best offensive player getting to know each other and the coach, and playing like it  I expect more of the same today.  And yes, I know that Bishop has a higher ppg average than Battle

For whatever it is worth, the last time GW played a home game in the state of Virginia the Colonials won. Of course, the President then was Gerald Ford, which explains why the team they beat was That School Down the Street.

Dayton hitting everything early.  We are actually getting good shots, but missing.  Lindo had two clean shots in the offense and Tyler had two open threes.  Gotta make shots to hang with dayton.