Yep.  SLU got screwed being behind Wichita St.  They are top 50 in both KenPom and the NET.  They let in two teams with net ratings worse than 70.  Why even have computer metrics if they don’t count at all for teams that don’t have a national brand?

Bonnies also got a tough break with a 9 seed.  My guess is the committee just gave Bona and VCU 9 and 10 before the tourney finals so that if VCU won, they could leave it or swap them.  Bonnies definitely deserved better, and got a really tough opponent in LSU (though Ossunyi should have a field day). 

The team that got most screeed is Loyola. They are number 9 in Ken Pom and got an 8 seed?  That’s a lot like what happened to GW. 

Also, Wichita state is in the 70s.  They went 1-4 against teams in the tourney.  How the heck did they get in ahead of SLU?

They created a criteria, by design, that not only pushes out non Power 5s, but also hurts their seeding.

Counting up "Quad 1" wins, while downplaying computer #s, hugely benefits the Power conferences, and you can see it in the seeding the selection.

Speaking of Quad 1 wins, Louisville got 7 cracks, they went 1-6, and yet they are the next team in if a team has to pull out (somewhat likely at least 1 team has to do so)  

Speaking of Louisville (and Kentucky) imagine a world where Pitino is in the tourney, as the Iona coach, and Kentucky and Louisville are both out, and then tell that to someone in 2016.

 

Adding to Thomas´ questions: if a team drops out what seed will the replacement team get? So if Gonzaga has COVID issues SLU would take their spot in the bracket and be a #1 seed? That would be almost as farsical as Mich St and ´Cuse getting bids but SLU being given the shaft.

4 A-10 Teams make the NIT: Davidson, Dayton, Richmond, SLU

Meant to add, one interesting thing about the Bonnies matchup is that mostly when they lost, it was because teams slowed them down.  They went 14-0 when they scored 65 points.

But LSU likes to speed it up and outscore people.  In all 9 of LSU’s losses, their opponent scored 76 and 7 they scored 80.  But the Bonnies only hit 80 five times (thst last one was especially painful to all of us). 

Can’t wait to see Osunniyi can shut down Watford.

Question:  Is it  a fact the Big East will not allow members to play in the NIT? Hard to see St. John's  not participating in an event it was so closely tied to for so many years. ? 

I think think Syracuse seems undeserving only if you ignore the fact that there really weren’t other teams that were more deserving that were left out.  They had a good NET and had a few really solid wins (all at home).  I think their resume was better than Louisville and Colorado State.  St Louis is tough, but they had 2 quad 3 losses, which is a killer when you don’t play a lot of games.  If you want to make the NCAA as an at large, you can’t lose to LaSalle.

I love Oklahoma State as a surprise winner this year.  I agree with a lot of talking heads, this team reminds me so much of the UConn Kemba Walker team (and a little of the Syracuse Melo team)

My guess is that the committee concluded that inviting Syracuse and keeping them out of a play-in game carried the benefit of not having to listen to his almost annual "why does the committee hate us" gripes.  Syracuse goes 13-1 at home, 1-7 against Q1 opponents, and he was actually lobbying before the selections citing that canceled home games against Fl State and Louisville took away two more chances at Q1 wins.  (Excuse me Covid but do you have any idea what you're doing to Jim Boeheim's chances?)  Michigan State having gone 5-10 against Q1 opponents should be flip-flopped with Syracuse.  Not that 5-10 is stellar but it's not 1-7.  UCLA went 12-0 against Q3 and Q4, 5-9 against everyone else.  Lost 4 straight to end the season (though Last 10 is no longer a thing).  Probably should be saying no thanks to the NIT.

A few words about SLU.  We've seen them play a lot, they are in our conference, and we are naturally going to take some bias into this discussion.  If we are relying solely on the eye test, or what this team looks like on paper, there's little question that they should have been in.  They won 23 games last year and had essentially the same team back this year.  However, the committee only looks at this season and bringing back virtually everyone is no guarantee of success (ask Wisconsin who returned 7 of their top 8 players from last year, added a really good freshman, and went from a 1 seed in the Big 10 Tournament last year to a 9 seed in the national tournament this season).   Most teams did not initially respond well after recovering from a Covid outbreak so SLU's first loss to Dayton might have been as expected.  The follow-up loss to La Salle clearly was not.  And, winning just one game away from home all season clearly hurt their cause.  Yes, they did have the early win over LSU but if Wichita State is the team you are barking up against, they had an even better win against Houston.  And, while the committee claims to not pay any regard to conference composition, two from the AAC and two from the A10 simply has a better look than 1 and 3 respectively.  We wanted SLU in because we know how good they can be; they are not in not due to playing less games due to Covid but largely due to the after effects of Covid. 

The Bonnies in the 8/9 game is an absolute joke.  I agree with whoever said that the committee lazily reserved a 9 and a 10 for the winner and loser of yesterday's championship.  SBU became the first A10 school to win the conference tournament as a #1 seed since SLU in 2014.  They lost 4 games all year.  They had a better season than Clemson, Florida and UCONN.  (By the way, I guess no real harm in the #7 Florida vs #10 Va Tech matchup since those seeds should be flipped.)  And UCONN was a much better team with James Bouknight but is the committee evaluating a full body of work or just those games with Bouknight?  I have been led to believe it's the former.

Great comments.   Lots of good things to respond to. 

Porter, Syracuse was 1-7 in Quad 1 games.  SLU was 2-2 (and two of those quad 3 losses came immediately after a month long covid pause.  Along with UCLA and Michigan St, they didn’t look like a tourney team when I watched them, but got dragged across the finish line by their conference. 

That said, they got the best draw they could possibly get, so they could easily go to the sweet 16.  In SDSU, they drew a six that doesn’t shoot it all that well (unless Gomez is hot) and isn’t likely to just pound them inside like a lot of teams have done this year, and isn’t an offensive rebounding machine. BYU would have been a tough matchup because of shooting plus Hasrms and other bigs and USC with the Mobely brothers and a top 10 offensive rebounding team would have been rough. Even the fourth six, Texas tech is a top 30 offensive rebounding team and has multiple shooters.  Very lucky draw.

Then, if they win that, they get Kansas or Eastern Washington. Kansas can’t practice until I think Friday, their star freshman Jalen Wilson is out due to Covid protocol; and they may be without their big guy McCormick, too. Kansas may still have enough to get by a live EWU team, but they are easily the worst 3 seed and probably should have been a 4 or 5.   As much as it pains me, the draw sets up perfectly for Cuse to make another run out of nowhere. 


DMV Pirhana.  Great post.  Want to respond to a lot of it.

— Louisville declined the invite to the NIT. 

— SLU and Wichita had the same quad 1 and quad 2 records, as you said, but SLU was 43 in the net and Wichita was 73 (and their KenPoms are also about 30 spots apart).   Beating Wichita on a neutral court, like in the ncaa tourney, wouldn’t be considered a quad 1 win, but beating SLU would be. The tourney criteria and the way they use advanced metrics makes zero sense.  Seems like it’s always just a way to justify picking who they want to pick that year and it’s application is totally inconsistent. 

I would love to hear the committee justify why beating Wichita St next week would be considered a lower quality win - by the committee itself -  than beating SLU, but they still choose Wichita.

—  I’m meh on Drake getting in.  Maybe I’m just still bitter about the way Pops’ injury was treated (arguably by the worst committee ever, even beyond what happened to us), but a tram that loses its two best players, whose entire resume is going 1-2 vs Loyola and “only” losing two other games to sub-100 teams doesn’t have that strong a case. From the eye test, they looked better to me than a tram like Michigan St, but without Penn and Hemphill, they probably shouldn’t be in. Crazy to me that they or Wichita will move on, but one of them will get a win.

— Agree about Iona, especially compared to Drexel. The CAA is a much better league than the MAAC and Drexel is like 40 spots better in KenPom  and Drexel is higher in the net.  Definitely feels like a Pitino bump. 

— I thought the exact same thing about UCSB. Creighton is very vulnerable and UCSB is a team that has multiple guys who can score it, and they don’t turn it over.  Plus they guard the perimeter and Creighton struggles when they aren’t hitting threes.  I think I’m probably going with the upset here.

— I wouldn’t write off Ohio beating Virginia. I’m bummed that they drew UVA because I wanted to use Preston and Vander Plaas in the tourney on DraftKings dfs, but uva slows it down too much for stat accumulation. . The size of Huff and Hauser inside is going to be tough for Ohio to stop. However, UVA can’t even resume practice until Friday so they could be at a real disadvantage.

Not sure if Ohio can get the win, but I think you will see multiple 3 and 4 seeds, not to mention 5s and 6s going down this year. I wouldn’t even be shocked if Oral Robert’s beats Ohio St. 

— Not sure what to make or VCU’s draw. Iowa is easily the weakest 2 seed and Oregon is very talented, but inconsistent. I wasn’t as impressed with VCU as in past seasons, but Oregon may be a good matchup because the play a lot of 1 on 1 ball and that typically isn’t the most effective vs VCU.  That said, Oregon is the type of team that I could easily see in the Sweet 16 if they get hot.  They have that level of talent at all 5 starter positions (and multiple big bodies to rotate on Garza).  I think VCU probably loses first round,  but if they can hit some threes, they can advance.  I haven’t decided on my bracket yet, but I may have Oregon in the sweet 16.

— Bonnies definitely under seeded, but so is LSU.  It makes zero sense for LSU to be seeded worse than Florida.  LSU finished higher in the league, went to the conference finals (beating Arkansas along the way).  Florida has limped to the finish line, losing 3 of 4 and not beating an at large level team since January.  I really don’t understand how the seeds aren’t flipped.  I think the Bonnies would have whipped Florida, but LSU is tougher because they can just outscore most teams.

Bonnies play good D and have 5 guys who can score, and they attack the glass. LSU relies on one on one offense, but Thomas, Watford, and Smart are so good that one on one is all they need. LSU will try to make it a track meet so the issue for Bona will be controlling tempo and making shots.  Bona should have the edge on the boards and Osunniyi matches up nicely on Watford defensively.  Darius Days could be a problem for Bona because of his length, so he could be the key guy for LSU and I’m thinking Jalen Adaway has a big game for Bonnies as the 5th guy in the scouting report and a tough matchup for Hyatt or whoever is out there with the 4 stars for LSU. 

I do agree that the winner of the Bonnies/LSU game has a great shot to beat Michigan because each of those teams should be 6 or 7 seeds. Without Livers, Michigan isn’t the same.   Should be a fun first and second round in thst region. 

— Georgetown did get a good draw. Colorado just never seems that impressive when I watch them.  They play good defense and have some size, but I can’t figure out why the metrics like their bland offense. I think Colorado might be a mirage playing against the soft PAC12 defenses.   Hopefully Georgetown crashes back to earth, but Colorado is a more vulnerable opponent that a number of the 8 and 9 seeds (including both Bona and LSU).

— Not sure if I agree that Maryland got a bad draw. Maryland is vulnerable inside (and had to help so much inside that they leave the perimeter open)  but I think UConn is the weakest inside of all the 7 seeds.  Sanogo stepped up late in the season and how he plays may be the key.   But if he struggles or gets in foul trouble, Maryland can match up on the perimeter.  It will be fun to see RJ Cole go up against the Maryland guys he probably knows well from being in DC and summer league.

One other prediction for that game: Bouknight tries to pull a Kemba Walker and plays a lot of hero ball. He kind of did that in the Big East tourney and I think he’s a kid trying to make a name for himself by carrying UConn in the tourney the way Kemba did.  Not sure if that’s good or bad for them.

— Greensboro could win, but FSU’s length tends to give teams problems in the first round. Unfortunately two years ago was Greensboro’s year when they got snubbed by the committee.

—. Absolutely agree about Abeliene.  They played both Arkansas and Texas Tech tough and probably should have been a 13 seed. I wish they were playing Kansas or West Virginia. 

— without Gillespie and Moore, Villanova should have been in an 8/9 game. Winthrop can certainly beat them as thst game feels close to a pick em to me. 

— Utah State, by the eye test, is easily a tourney team.  It seems like they got a pass for losing two games in Boise after their covid paise.  Just too bad SLU didn’t get the same break.  I think the committee was very favorable to western teams (PAC12 and MWC) this year. All those years of accusations of bias against the west seems (aka, working the refs) seems to have worked on this committee to get them to bend over backwards.

— Loyola deserved a 5 or 6 seed for their consistency, but the only tourney team they beat is Drake (and Loyola is the only Drake beat. That works out nicely for both).  They also lost to WI and Richmond, the two best other teams they played.  Georgia Tech was playing really well late in the season before their covid-aided ACC title, so this game - like Bona/LSU features two teams thst should have been higher.

Krutwig will eat GT alive, but Moses may hang out on the perimeter and slash. Tough for both teams to guard each other.

— I love this Ok St team, but don’t write off Liberty. Liberty shoots it really well, led by Darius McThree, they are #4 in effective FG%, and equally proficient inside and out. They also don’t turn it over.  Good shooting teams that value possessions are often the types of teams that can shock a top team so I would watch out. 

That said, if you asked me a week ago, I would have had OK St in the final 4 (with Zags, Baylor, and the Illini). Kalib Boone has gone better and better and could dominate Liberty, and Matthew Alexander Moncrieffe is a future star who will turn heads if they make a deep run.  And when Cade was out, the other guards (Anderson, who is also a future star, Williams, and Walker) really stepped up.  Ok St is deep and balanced. The committee did them no favors with a 4 seed,   They also got the toughest 5 (out of a really weak group of 5s), and then possibly Illinois in the sweet 16.  If they get to the final 8, they probably get to at least the championship game, but they’d better not take Liberty for granted.

-Lastly I’m not impressed with any of the 5 seeds.  Tennesse is a mediocre offensive team and just lost their center. Colorado also doesn’t have a ton of scorers.  Creighton hasn’t been as impressive lately and just got thumped by like 40 in their last game.  Villanova is missing their star PG and possibly their secondary ball handler.  If I were seeding the field, BYU
Texas Tech, UConn, Bonnies, LSU, Loyola, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma, and North Carolina would gage been in front of all those 5 seeds.

Getting a little lost in the shuffle, what a great job Brad Underwood has done with #1 seed Illinois.

Quietly one of the best Coaches in the country, 53-1 in league play at SFA.  Hope he stays and keeps them near the top of the Big 10 for another decade or two.   

Like many turnarounds, lost his first 2 years, took 4 full seasons to really turn the thing around, lost 21 games in year 2.

Last edited by The Dude (3/15/2021 7:07 pm)