Classic GW.  Unless I’m the fool (possible), there’s a mistake in the schedule announcement.

It says we are playing UC San Diego and UC Fullerton, and says they are from thr WAC and Big West. 

Problem is, there’s no San Diego in the WAC (and Fullerton is big west).

There’s UC San Diego, who just played their first year of D1 and is also in the Big West.  And there’s University OT San Diego, who is in the WCC. There’s also San Diego St in the MWC, though it’s not them. 

So who are we playing?  Is it UC San Diego, the new D1 team in the Big West or San Diego the more established team in the WCC?  (I hope it’s the latter, but with this sad schedule, it’s probably not)

Here’s the line from the announcement: The Colonials then head to the West Coast for a pair of contests with UC San Diego (Nov. 13) and Cal State Fullerton (Nov. 16). GW has never faced either program out of the WAC and Big West, respectively

Not one non-conference weekend home game to bring kids to?  Seriously?  They really know how to build a fanbase...

fidel wrote:

Also if you're hungover the next day get a California Burrito, the true San Diego delicacy (though fish tacos can be a close second)

You forgot to mention that, COVID-allowing, you are right next door to what (as per Krusty the Klown) is the "Happiest Place on Earth-- Tijuana, Mexico!"

fidel wrote:

Also if you're hungover the next day get a California Burrito, the true San Diego delicacy (though fish tacos can be a close second)

GW and UCSD grad.

There's nothing finer than San Diego cuisine: California Burritos, Fish Tacos, and Carne Asada Fries. 
 

Last edited by GW0509 (8/02/2021 3:51 pm)

A chance to avenge Coppin State! EPIC.

This is objectively a very weak schedule, but hopefully (and more importantly) it leads to more wins this season. As of now, I would hope we don't lose more than three games OOC (and you could make the argument that more than two losses would be a disappointment, but realistically three losses is a bit more fair).

I actually think the Naples tournament is a solid field for where we are at right now, but outside of that tourney and Maryland the rest of the schedule is not overly exciting. We are traveling all the way to California just to play Cal St Fullerton and UC San Diego? Was hoping we would at least play someone like San Diego (WCC - they are around the same stage as us in rebuilding currently and bring in some good transfers), Loyola Marymount, or Fresno State for one of the games. UMass Lowell/Boston U feels redundant and so does Coppin State/Maryland Eastern Shore. A slight nitpick, but would have preferred we play at least one somewhat competitive team in December as A10 play approaches. We finish the slate with Coppin State, Radford, and Maryland Eastern Shore which is definitely underwhelming. At the very least we are playing some new teams this year which could be interesting.

St. Francis (PA) took a major step back as they lost their top two scorers from the previous season that combined for 37 ppg. They barely finished above Central Connecticut State in the NEC last season, but maybe part of that was due to COVID. They don't take a lot of threes and their interior defense is atrocious, partly because they have several raw big men who don't block a lot of shots.

Maryland is obviously the highlight, not even taking into consideration the Lindo connection. The Terrapins return Ayala + Hart and bring in a lot of promising transfers like Russell, Martinez, Wahab, and Dziuba (a good player to take a chance on). Similar to our team, they don't offensive rebound particularly well (that changes a bit with Wahab in the fold) and struggle with turning teams over, which is good for us as turnovers have plagued our team for the past several years. Maryland is pretty good at not sending the opposition to the line which could be an issue for us as we got a good chunk of our points at the FT line last year as the three point shooting was not present.

UC San Diego officially joined D1 last year. They were 30th in the nation in three point shooting at 38% but couldn't defend anyone. They lose two double figure scorers and they are still in the process of becoming a competitive team in the Big West. They are probably a middle of the pack team at best and are definitely behind teams like UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, and UC Riverside. The Tritons took the eighth most threes in the country and were fourth in assist rate. Hey, at least we won't be playing zone defense in this one.

Cal St. Fullerton brings back their top two scorers from last year. Both have the last name Maddox but I don't believe they are related. The Titans were even better from behind the arc, ranking 15th nationally in three point percentage. Much like UC San Diego though they couldn't guard anyone. They somehow let teams shoot nearly 40% from behind the arc, which I have to imagine is at least a little bad luck. They aren't overly big down low. At least we aren't facing Northridge, a team that will be an absolute train wreck this year. How did they think hiring Gottfried was going to be a good idea?? Anyways, Fullerton bring in some interesting transfers like Milstead from San Francisco and Anosike who was good at Sacred Heart before not playing much at Tennessee. Even with that I don't see them finishing particularly high in conference unless their defense somehow improves significantly.

UMass Lowell loses their best player from last season. They get to the line a lot, but aren't particularly great at making free throws. Lowell also offsets trips to the line by fouling their opponents a lot and allowing them to shoot a lot of FTs as well. The River Hawks actually block a fair amount of shots, but the team is mostly meh and I think they take a step back this year.

Wright State might be our second hardest opponent in the OOC slate, but I am not sure if that says a lot. The Raiders were good in pretty much every statistical category, but Loudon Love had a lot to do with that and he opted to go pro. Still, they bring back four other players who averaged 10+ ppg and have a strong culture of winning. They were pretty much being chased in the Horizon last year, but I think they might find more success this year when people are overlooking them in favor of Cleveland State (who made the NCAA tournament) or Milwaukee (they landed a 5 star player over Duke because he is the coach's son).

Kent State is always solid in the MAC and will likely finish in the top half again this season. I think they replaced Ball State and that is a net upgrade in my book because the Cardinals never meet expectations. We should be playing James Madison more often and I think they are on the rise in the CAA. A bit disappointed we aren't facing any CAA teams this year outside of the tourney. East Tennessee State has honestly recovered a lot quicker than I expected them to after they unacceptably fired their coach because he allowed his players to kneel during the national anthem. They are definitely better than Middle Tennessee, who I think was the original opponent. Murray State had a down year, but they bring in some good transfers and will likely give Belmont a bigger fight in the OVC closer to what they usually do. The OVC is going to be even more top heavy with Jacksonville State and Eastern Kentucky departing for the Atlantic Sun. Missouri State is usually very solid, but it's tough to say that they are going to be better than Drake, Northern Iowa (with Green), and even still Loyola without Krutwig. They are the definition of an NIT team but will nevertheless be a good test. Long Beach State has underperformed the last several seasons, and I am surprised Monson is still coaching there. This is a pretty good job and they should be a lot more competitive in the Big West. It would be funny if we somehow ended up playing three Big West teams OOC.

Boston U returns their top four scorers but defensively they were really bad. Teams shot 54% from the field against them, and the only thing "they" did well at on that end was opponent FT%, which is more good luck than anything else. I don't see what we get by playing Boston U that we couldn't get by just playing American (or even Loyola MD) but I guess American is not a possibility the next four years until Lincoln graduates.

Charlotte lost their last eight games of the season, but add some impactful transfers with three coming from Clemson, Ohio State, and Syracuse to support Jahmir Young. Hopefully we can avenge the close loss from last year. I believe we lost to their assistant coach in that game as Sanchez was out for that game. They are one of those teams that defensive rebound better than offensive rebound. Their strength lies in winning the free throw battle. They are top 50 nationally in taking free throws and preventing the opposition from taking free throws.

Coppin State isn't going to be good this year, but I'm rooting for local guy Anthony Tarke to make the Pistons after he got a summer league deal. His younger brother Nendah will be the leader as the Eagles lost all three of their double figure scorers. I don't understand why we can't just play Howard. At least there is a local connection there. We beat Coppin by 16 last year.

Radford has been solid the past several years, but their coach Mike Jones left for UNC Greensboro after Wes Miller took the Cincy job. This definitely seems like a team that will be rebuilding the next few years though Darris Nichols looks like a good local hire and he is certainly getting after it with recruiting. No problem with playing them this year, but I am scratching my head a bit in agreeing to a home-and-home with them. Maybe I'm holding out hope that we will be competitive enough to have a stronger schedule next season. Would have preferred to do a home-and-home with a SoCon team instead (maybe even aforementioned UNC Greensboro), not one from the Big South.

Maryland Eastern Shore was one of ten teams that didn't play a game last year. There is the AJ Register connection, but otherwise not much interesting about this matchup. The Hawks really struggle to shoot the ball, but the MEAC is down to eight teams so they definitely have more of a shot now. I also do remember us playing them close at home a few seasons back so nothing is really a gimme right now.

To wrap up, here are the KenPom finishes from last year:
Maryland 35th
Wright State 73rd
Missouri State* 88th
Kent State* 115th
East Tennessee State* 128th
Murray State* 173rd
James Madison* 177th
UMass Lowell 230th
UC San Diego 231st
Charlotte 234th
Long Beach State* 242nd
Radford 243rd
Cal St. Fullerton 255th
Boston U 260th
Coppin State 291st
St. Francis (PA) 312th
Maryland Eastern Shore 355th
 

Thanks DMV!

Time to compare bad schedules.  All based on final KenPom rankings; this year's schedule is based on last year's KenPom rankings.  In order from cupcakiest to challenging:

Of the four seasons GWRising provided as candidates, this year's schedule beats (is worse than) 3 of these IMO.  Karl Hobbs's 2005-06 schedule is still safe.

2005-06:  11 OOC games

Games vs top 100:  2   
Games vs. top 200:  2
Games vs. those in the 300's: 4

That's right, zero games played against those with rankings in the 100's.  BU, ranked #203, was the third toughest game on the schedule.  Over 1/3 of the OOC games against teams ranked 308 or worse.  This schedule will never be beat.  A true thing of ugliness.

2021-22: 13 OOC games

Games vs. Top 100: 2 (one of these is Wright State)
Games vs. Top 200: 4 (unless we play Long Beach State in Naples in which case it will be 3)
Games vs. 300 or worse:  2 (UMES gets this distinction despite having not played last season, but would it be any different if they had played?)

So, at least 9 of 13 games will be played against schools ranked 230 or worse.    I like winning as much as the next person but given the talent on this year's team, I would be surprised if many of these weren't blowout wins against inferior competition.  Personally, I would have preferred to swap a pair of 200+ teams for a pair of 100-150 teams.  Give these players some better games!

2009-10:  13 OOC games

Games vs Top 100: 1
Games vs. Top 200: 6
Games vs. 300 or worse:  2

Take away points for scheduling Providence (#90) as the sole top 100 team but grant points for playing four games between 111-147 plus another at 162.


2010-11:  12 OOC games

Games vs. Top 100:  2
Games vs. Top 200: 6
Games vs. 300 or worse:  1

Some luck was involved here as pre-A10 member Mason finished with 27 wins and a #24 KenPom ranking.  None of the top 200 games was worse than 170, and the top 200 # of 6 would have been 8 had this metric read Top 208.

2008-09:  12 OOC games

Games vs Top 100:  3
Games vs. Top 200: 6
Games vs. 300 or worse: 2

Two top 60 opponents in Maryland and Auburn, plus Vermont sitting at 84.   Of course, following up Hawaiian losses to Hawaii (214) and Coppin State (267) with a loss at Longwood (311), perhaps this schedule could not have possibly been easy enough.

20 wins. Really? 
Of course everyone on the board would be happy with 20 wins. But, let's not get carried away. I can't be the only one who has watched the last four seasons?
Time to lower the expectations... it could make the season a lot more enjoyable.
Here's a more realistic look at the season using KenPom ratings from last season
St. Francis -- win
Maryland -- loss
UC San Diego -- loss because while we were 227 and UC San Diego 231, UC San Diego is at home.
UC Fullerton -- win
Lowell -- win
Wright State -- loss
Kent State or JMU -- loss
Long Beach State, if tournament goes according to KenPom -- win
BU -- win
Charlotte -- loss because while we were 227, Charlotte at 234 is at home.
Coppin State -- win
Radford -- win
UMES -- win
GW Record -- 7-5. A winning record. A good place to start and a first for JC at GW.

So, of course, KenPom of last season is not a perfect predictor of this season, I think it puts some realism in the coming season. Until we see something different from GW under JC, I don't see how we can have any higher expectations. And I think 7-5 allows JC and TV to say the program is headed in the right direction, no matter disappointing I or others think that 7-5 is.
We will have lots to talk about this season.
 

Will be fun to see Noel Brown go up against his former HS teammate Qudus Wahab.

Also, one of Knapp’s teammates treansferred to Wright St so there’s another reunion. 

Only other thing I’ll say is that I wouldn’t base our schedule off last year’s KenPom rankings. If the coach expects us to take a leap forward than this is clearly a disappointing schedule.  It’s a much better fit for a 220ish team than the top 150 team we should become.