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5/24/2021 9:44 am  #1


Your Crystal Ball on JC

Here is what we do know about the JC era at GW:

It has not gone well as measured by won-loss record
His teams have gotten off to particularly slow starts against an extremely pedestrian out-of-conference schedule
His teams have won a few impressive conference games indicating improvement over the course of a season
It is easy to somewhat dismiss year 1 as you would most any coach in charge of many players he did not recruit
It is easy to somewhat dismiss year 2 due to health and safety concerns
It is logical presume that the addition of transfers from Maryland, LSU, Nebraska, UCONN, Arizona and Virginia Tech represents an upgrade in talent

So as The Alan Parsons Project once asked, "Where do we go from here?"  Take out your crystal ball and project JC's future at GW, based on these choices:

a) JC becomes GW's answer to Bob McKillop at Davidson.  He wins consistently, he stays forever.
b) JC's accomplishments rival Mike Jarvis's at GW.  He builds a consistent winner staying at GW for at least another 6 seasons before leaving for a major job.
c) JC pulls things together quickly, stringing together 2-3 very successful seasons before moving to that bigger job.
d) JC's record rivals Karl Hobbs.  He puts together a string of highly successful seasons but can not sustain the success.
e) JC has a respectable record but nothing to write home about.  The NIT becomes aspirational, and a season along the lines of 20-15 becomes the norm.  JC stays at least GW at least 10 more years.
f)   Same scenario as e) only JC stays five more years or fewer.
g) Success proves elusive but the school is pleased with JC doing things the right way.  No postseason appearances but JC is fine for another 8 +years.
h) The losing takes a toll on the administration and JC's current contract is neither extended nor renewed.

Other possible scenarios obviously exist but based on these 8 choices, how do you foresee JC's career at GW unfolding?

 

 

5/24/2021 10:31 am  #2


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

I could be convinced of either C or E and I think it all comes down to whether or not he wants to allow his young son to have some stability now that he's older and going to school.

JC's track record is one of striving for the next rung on the ladder, and I don't mean that in a bad way.  He starts as an assistant at a small school in the middle of nowhere, then moves up the ranks of D1 as an assistant, then takes the HC role at a small school in the middle of nowhere which is also his alma mater, then moves up the ranks of D1 as an HC.  I think his shine as an up-and-coming name has worn off a bit these past two years, especially with the embarrassing losses he's overseen.  I think he can rehabilitate his career trajectory if GW can get back to threatening NCAA bids and he shows he knows how to play the transfer game.  I think that skill is going to be the thing most HCs will have to prove going forward.

With that said, most of his moving around took place either pre-kid or pre-schooling kid.  Now he's in a position where you'd like to give your kid some stability and be able to develop friendships.  If GW has a couple years of success, JC may look around and think it's better to settle down and allow his son to have a few years of normality. 

Of course, that is all contingent on what support he gets financially from the school and from alumni.  If he has 2-3 years of success and nothing changes, I think he'd look to leave just because what else would he need to prove?  If I were in his shoes, that would be the sign that I needed to leave, even if it meant uprooting my kid from his school.

 

5/24/2021 11:00 am  #3


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

I can see anything in the b) to h) range and the reason I cannot narrow it down any further is because his tenure thus far has been so disrupted by external events that I think we really have no clue where the program is headed. If COVID returns to smother the next season or if player turnover remains at over 50% moving forward or if the administrative flux at the University finds sports an easy victim or if the Tinfoil Hats try to overthrow a branch of government again, then there is no chance of being able to answer the question 12 months from now either.
At this point, Christian is trying to see if he even has enough lemons to make lemonade. No way to know if we are dealing with a diamond-in-the-rough or just a lump of coal.
That said, if 2021-22 goes smoothly (from an opperational point of view) we will have a much better idea of where the program stands and where it is going this time next year.

Last edited by GW Alum Abroad (5/24/2021 11:01 am)

 

5/24/2021 11:03 am  #4


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

Very interesting perspective GW0509.  It's hard not to make a comparison to ML who referred to GW as his dream job.  Of course, ML has 5 children so the notion of uprooting the family is perhaps more arduous than in JC's case.  

Then again, JC was raised in VA, went to school in MD, coached at two schools in VA as well as I believe a short stint in PA before returning to MSM (from VCU).  He has essentially only left the area one time to take the Siena job.  This all speaks to how wedded JC may in fact be to the DMV area.  His parents are relatively close by and his brother is helping to coach the Wizards.  Should he become very successful and receive higher paying jobs outside of the area, it may not be a slam-dunk that he accepts such an offer.

     Thread Starter
 

5/24/2021 11:31 am  #5


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

Looking into my Crystal ball.... I say D or F is most likely, with C teasing me, that little minx...

 

5/24/2021 6:47 pm  #6


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

How can any discerning fan pick anything but “H”. “H” is flashing and staring at me. A coach starts last year at 1-6. Losing to Navy, Hampton,  UMBC,Delaware, William and Mary and Charlotte. Would any good or successful coach have this record? To lose Jameer Nelson, Maceo Jack prior to the end of the season tells about underlying problems with the coach. To lose Jamison Battle brings pain to all fans. This coach has the ability to attract players and he seems to be succeeding in this respect. He seems to be a “nice guy”. Leo Durocher told everyone how nice guys finish. I think that JC’s tenure will be short lived.

 

5/24/2021 6:56 pm  #7


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

Cutis wrote:

How can any discerning fan pick anything but “H”. “H” is flashing and staring at me. A coach starts last year at 1-6. Losing to Navy, Hampton,  UMBC,Delaware, William and Mary and Charlotte. Would any good or successful coach have this record? To lose Jameer Nelson, Maceo Jack prior to the end of the season tells about underlying problems with the coach. To lose Jamison Battle brings pain to all fans. This coach has the ability to attract players and he seems to be succeeding in this respect. He seems to be a “nice guy”. Leo Durocher told everyone how nice guys finish. I think that JC’s tenure will be short lived.

Amazing that Cutis missed the pandemic and almost 1,600 transfers - approximately 99.7% that didn't come from GW..

Last edited by GWRising (5/25/2021 6:41 am)

 

5/25/2021 6:51 am  #8


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

Dr Mike wrote:

GWMAYHEM, thanks for this good post.

Similar to the Board of Trustees decision to cut loose LeBlanc based on his record, decision-making, communication, strategic planning and ability to manage a complex university and changing higher education environment, I see similarities with JC.

I have seen enough to conclude he is the wrong head coach for GW. I base this conclusion strictly on winning. I am not a person that attempts to find some silver lining that tries to justify anything other than winning. We participate in intercollegiate sports to win, no consolation prize. The Board of Trustees made this distinction with LeBlanc. A similar decision should be made with JC.

JC will benefit from GW's presidential search. The search will take a year and then another year for the new president to install his/her cabinet and another year before the new president gets to athletics. So, JC is safe until the end of his current contract. 

GWMAYHEM, your post also raises another question--With a new president and administration what are the expectations for GW men's basketball  and the evolving college basketball landscape? This brings us back to many of the post from last year.  GW is more than satisfied with traditional coach speak--the team played hard, the players are practicing hard, players are learning the system, we played well but came up a bit short.

I have lost confidence that GW is serious about men's basketball. Coaches are paid a lot of money to win games regardless of the conditions, regardless if the game is home, away or on a neutral court. GW is a good case study of a university participating in a great basketball conference but not willing to fully engage to win the conference championship.    


 

It's unfortunate that you would base your decision on winning especially in light of a two-year tenure in the middle of the pandemic after acquiring the worst GW team in 30 years. Of course, you also would have concluded at the same juncture that neither Hobbs nor Lonergan was the right coach as both sported losing records at the end of year two. This despite the fact that both achieved "winning results" unseen previously at GW after year 2 -  A-10 championships and an NIT championship. To determine that a coach (after a year when he inherited a 9-win program and another where the pandemic dramatically affected things) does not provide enough "winning" is premature at best and foolish/unfair at worst as borne out by GW's own recent history.
 

 

5/25/2021 8:25 am  #9


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

I'll have to fall somewhere in between DrMike and GWRising on this.  To look at these past two years and conclude that JC is definitively the wrong guy for this job seems harsh for the reasons that GWRising has outlined.

That said, here is my major concern with Rising's line of thinking.   The biggest single difference between KH/ML after year 2 and JC after year 2 deals with continuity.  The KH team had Pops/Mike/Omar with a season under their belts while the ML team had the Core 4 finishing out their freshmen seasons (plus Zeke).  Each of those teams did take their lumps but each was also establishing the building blocks for a winning program in the future.  This really isn't hindsight; fans were feeling very good about this program when players like Carl Elliott, JR Pinnock, and Mo Creek were joining their respective established nucleuses.  These teams first learned how to play together and eventually, how to win together.

What JC has done could not be a more stark contrast.  The building blocks appear to be two players who transferred in last year of which one competed in only a handful of games.  Amir may or may not figure into this equation given his health but even he has only played in a few games.  It's easy to presume that the talent level has been upgraded but once again, we will be watching a team with little familiarity when it comes to playing together.  You can almost expect next year's team to have some struggles early on and improve over the course of a full season, much like these past two seasons (but hopefully with some more W's).  

But, what happens in 2022-23?  Will the core group of eligible players return to the team?  Or, is the new normal going to be a mass exodus of players, certainly not along the lines of this past season, but where we be annually losing 3-5 contributors?   

This is why I feel it's incumbent upon JC to not only improve his winning percentage this season but to also keep his core group of eligible players in tact for following seasons.  Like KH and ML, JC's teams should have the opportunity to learn to play together and over time, win together.  This can not happen if too many guys are coming and going after each season.

     Thread Starter
 

5/25/2021 10:18 am  #10


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

JC is going to have to coach to talent whether its at GW or anywhere and that is the rarest coaching ability.
I'd love a core and an emerging identity, but the new transfer rules really make that hard to expect.
GW picked a bad time to be bad. We are fans of a poor team at a school where more money for men's basketball is not in the offing.

 

5/25/2021 11:56 am  #11


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

f)

 

5/25/2021 2:15 pm  #12


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

John Rothstein is reporting that many low to mid majors are forgoing guarantee games because they allow the high major a Live Evaluation of the low/mid major's players.

So FQ, BM and others where does this leave a school like GW? Does the A10 have scheduling goals or requirements? And doesn't this just hammer GW and so many other schools in 3 big ways?

1. GW will not be able to build towards At Large Bid contention.
2. Not enough ok to good players will stick around long enough to lift GW MBB up.
3. Quality of play. The degree to which NBA free agents fit in is a huge question; so much worse the younger the player.

Since the NIT team GW has been mostly a collection of players where the sum does not exceed the parts.
So to me the new transfer rule has created a situation that is beyond the current coach. IMO there are now structural obstacles to GW's success that would give the brain of Rick Majarus pause.

In short I think what GW is facing, especially with the negative synergy between the pandemic/finances/LeBlanc, is a really tough future.
 

 

5/25/2021 4:37 pm  #13


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

He is fired after four years, maybe after three if this year is as bad as the last two.  I have been underwhelmed with his recruiting so far (of course this years remains to be seen), disappointed with his inability to hold onto those few quality players that have come our way post-Lonergan and disappointed that even with the bar almost touching the floor, we lost far too many games against teams we had no business losing too, no matter who was on the court for GW.     (FWIW...I still find it amazing that none of the fanbase has ever seen any of next year's team play live).    Wishing him all the luck in the world, of course, but... 

 

5/25/2021 6:42 pm  #14


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

He is fired after four years, maybe after three if this year is as bad as the last two.  I have been underwhelmed with his recruiting so far (of course this years remains to be seen), disappointed with his inability to hold onto those few quality players that have come our way post-Lonergan and disappointed that even with the bar almost touching the floor, we lost far too many games against teams we had no business losing too, no matter who was on the court for GW.     (FWIW...I still find it amazing that none of the fanbase has ever seen any of next year's team play live).    Wishing him all the luck in the world, of course, but... 

LSF before the transfer rule change I would agree with you pretty easily; however bt the pandemic/rule change and the $$$ pressure I advocate patience. Of course I'd feel better if GW was able to/chose to have a national AD search. The overall crusher of the pandemic driven pressure is that it ruthlessly finds all weaknesses.
I'm sure the President and the Trustees do not care if the Men's Basketball Team fails to win a game this year.
 

 

5/25/2021 6:44 pm  #15


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

He is fired after four years, maybe after three if this year is as bad as the last two.  I have been underwhelmed with his recruiting so far (of course this years remains to be seen), disappointed with his inability to hold onto those few quality players that have come our way post-Lonergan and disappointed that even with the bar almost touching the floor, we lost far too many games against teams we had no business losing too, no matter who was on the court for GW.     (FWIW...I still find it amazing that none of the fanbase has ever seen any of next year's team play live).    Wishing him all the luck in the world, of course, but... 

 
  All very valid observations from LSF.
Don't think he's fired after 3 or maybe 4 years for reasons unrelated to merit or lack thereof. More the presidential calendar,as Dr. Mike observed,with his firsthand insight.
Of course would much rather the turnedover team gels so much that we worry about JC being hired away.
  And am always hopeful pre-season. But being a,GW fan,outside of the NIT championship (unfortunately followed by truly impressive self-destruction),Sweet 16, Goldwire's elbow,etc.,being a,GW fan means having your hopes dashed.

 

5/25/2021 7:26 pm  #16


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

To quote from A.P.P. Don't Ask Me

 

5/26/2021 5:45 am  #17


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

G. Consistency and lack of drama is all that's required. Stay out of the news and out of the underwear drawers.

 

5/27/2021 9:53 am  #18


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

I see JC bringing us a winning season and great improvement in 21/22 and an NCAA bid in 22/23 which will endear him to almost all GW fans and keep him here for the foreseeable future.

 

5/30/2021 12:06 pm  #19


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

AT Hiker wrote:

I see JC bringing us a winning season and great improvement in 21/22 and an NCAA bid in 22/23 which will endear him to almost all GW fans and keep him here for the foreseeable future.

I want what he's drinking!!!

 

6/07/2021 1:46 pm  #20


Re: Your Crystal Ball on JC

I predict two things:

1. JC will turn the program around
2. Many of the names on the board will change when this happens, yet again.
 

 

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