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10/17/2021 1:06 pm  #1


KenPom Preseason Rankings

A-10 sneaky stinks this year according to KenPom.  Glad to see Ken agrees with me that Mason's hype is VERY overblown.

KenPom rankings are out for the A10
30. Bona
64. Richmond
84. Dayton
91. Davidson
92. SLU
98. VCU
100. Rhode Island
107. UMass
181. Duquesne
197. La Salle
203. Saint Joe’s
212. George Mason
214. GW
245. Fordham

 

10/17/2021 3:20 pm  #2


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

With all the transfers, these ratings are less useful than ever.  Just too hard for a metrics site to predict what a Joe Bamilile does in a new setting. 

That said, agree that Mason’s hype is overrated.   I think I’ve made my feelings about Deshawn Schwartz clear, but I’ll be shocked if he is really able to be the first option on a good team. He’s a role player on a good team, but I don’t think there’s too much of a difference between him and Brendan Adams.

 

10/17/2021 4:06 pm  #3


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

Right, but can't a metric site give Basimile players a baseline evaluation? you can project a baseline for transfers with that prior production and pedigree, moving down a level.

Bart Torvik, very similar to these KenPom rankings.  

The main GW issue though is lack of returning production.  Teams, outside of top 10 types, are generally good or not because of returning production.  Some continuity. The Bonnies return 5 starters I think all 5 are Seniors.  How likely is it that a couple of transfers are going to instantly turn around the program? (hopefully)

I'll wager the actual A10 looks largely like KenPom predictions, with GW up 2-3 spots out of sheer optimism

What's the argument, on paper, for GW being much better than 11-13th?  Lost Battle, lost Moyer.  The team was in the low 200s last year with them. Then lost Ira Lee to injury.  You can see why GW is being picked across the board near the bottom of the A10. 

The surprise would be if we weren't being picked as such. Why would anyone pick GW much higher?

 

10/17/2021 5:27 pm  #4


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

FQ
Agree that with th movement this year the predictors are way irrelevant.  There is no way for them to account for a change in style or significant more playing time and how that will equate to an entire different performance.

I wish I could go back and look at Bishops predictions before last year.

 

10/17/2021 6:06 pm  #5


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

First off,do individual player stats make a difference?
In the end,it really matters how a team plays together and wins or loses.
Second,as repeatedly pointed out here and above,how can you really tell,especially from a fan perspective, how a new player performs until the ball is rolled out against at least medium quality teams?
We've had players who looked excellent in exhibition games,but had little impact in the regular season.
   With transfers who didn't perform real well at their old school, even though there may be hints, it's often hard to tell. With freshmen, it's similarly difficult,especially at our level .
  Yuta chose between Fordham and GW. He showed potential in his freshmen year (particularly mid to late season) and was very valuable here,particularly before the implosion, when it actually mattered.
  Then, again,despite four good years, he wasn't on the high level NBA radar. Even when he fought his way into the league with a 2-way contract, Memphis didn't give him the opportunities he earned. But because of Yuta's  smarts,work ethic, and underestimated abilities, he's still in the NBA with what is reportedly a guaranteed contract this year.
  A good number of players who chose between Duke for example,and other basketball powers/ref privileged teams in recent years never became starters in college, much less played in the NBA. And even a number of those drafted when Yuta was, may not in the league now.
  But Yuta,underrated since high school, is in the NBA.
   A happy example of how it's really hard to predict.

 

10/17/2021 6:40 pm  #6


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

Haven't read a good case for GW being any higher than 11-13.  Is there one?

When the Coaches and Writers picks come out, I'm certain we'll be picked around there by them too.

Gonzaga is #1 by a big margin, the next top 6 spots are 3 schools each from Big12 and Big10, continung a trend where those 2 are on top. The ACC once the strongest confernce has really slid down in recent years.

Only 1 ACC school top 20, SEC actually has 4.  

San Fransico is #34, part of a real rise in years.  Eye opening.  



 

Last edited by The Dude (10/17/2021 7:40 pm)

 

10/18/2021 10:18 am  #7


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

Yeah, I think the uncertainty of all of the transfers makes our possible outcomes very wide. I could see us in 13th place. I could see us in (probably max) 8th if some guys take big steps and our freshman have an impact. I like some of the board's optimism but I will believe it when I see it!

 

10/18/2021 12:13 pm  #8


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

First AP top 25 poll is out. Looks Lot like KenPom

Of note:

St. Bonaventure is ranked for the first time in more than five decades. The Bonnies from the Atlantic 10 are No. 23, marking the first time they have been ranked since January 1971. That season was also the last time the program was ranked in the preseason (No. 20).

 

10/22/2021 10:02 am  #9


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

Interesting analysis of average KenPom over the last few years. By and large A10 really has been hurt by not getting the chances to play top teams and not taking advantage of those chances we do get with wins. Most of the league is bunched between 165-182 and Fordham has been downright putrid.

Last edited by GW0509 (10/22/2021 10:29 am)

     Thread Starter
 

10/22/2021 10:11 am  #10


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

Are those all pre-season or post-season (or in between) rankings?

 

10/22/2021 10:30 am  #11


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

BC wrote:

Are those all pre-season or post-season (or in between) rankings?

I think these are best/worst final KenPom rankings

     Thread Starter
 

10/22/2021 11:26 am  #12


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

Look at Dayton with that #4 KenPom ranking.

 

10/23/2021 6:38 am  #13


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

I'm old enough to remember looking up at Duquesne and St. Bon in the standings in a given year was a laughable idea and yet here we are, not close to their caliber in a six-year trend. Good evidence our internal metrics have changed from winning basketball games to staying out of the news, arguing strongly for Tanya Vogel getting a 10-year extension. "She won't hunt players in the locker room."

 

10/23/2021 9:27 am  #14


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

An interesting question to ask is to what extent should TV's fate be tied to the men's basketball program.  On the one hand, this is by far the biggest revenue generating sport for the school.  On the other hand TV is responsible for overseeing many different sports.

So, if men's basketball continues to flounder, should the school be thinking about hiring a new AD even if many other programs are flourishing?

And, if men's basketball turns things around for the better but most other programs wind up disappointing, how does this scenario play out for TV?

Finally, if most sports (including men's basketball) perform below average but our student-athletes are graduating at very high percentages, demonstrating outstanding community service, and exhibiting great sportsmanship,  do these things combine to keep TV''s job safe?

(Disclaimer:  We have reached the point on this board  where I have to issue the following disclaimer.  This is not a post advocating that TV be fired.  Not in the slightest.  It is a post that asks which factors are the most or least important in determining whether GW should retain or release its AD.  Please add other factors should you find any to also be appropriate barometers.)

 

10/23/2021 11:03 am  #15


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

I think it has to do with how important GW views sports generally, which is to say: not very. The most importance I've seen placed in the program was during the Smith Center renovations in the mid- to late 2000s, meant to capitalize on the success of the team under KH. Since then it's really been looked at as a loss leader. Out NIT Championship was another potential building block, which we managed with great effort to turn into a steaming turd.

 

10/23/2021 12:21 pm  #16


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

I really wonder about this contention that men's basketball is the biggest revenue generating sport for GW. Is that a net balance or just what comes in through diminishing ticket sales? The recent Buff and Blue Challenge showed MBB in 8th place among GW sports with 14 donors contributing $7,490. Men's polo was 1st with 94 donors contributing $30,160. Realize that's but one isolated indicator but all this griping about the supposed lack of commitment from Tanya and the school administration would seem to be matched and then some by fan indifference to the program. I certainly accept that there might be several individuals making 5 figure donations over and above their tickets and Club membership that did not feel it necessary to contribute to the Challenge but it's sad to see such little participation from everyone else. But then that seems to be normal to the GW experience.

 

10/23/2021 6:58 pm  #17


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

Are there any poor polo players?     It is pretty sad that there were only 14 MBB donors, though I admit to being one of the missing 39 1/2 million GW fans who didn't donate this year.

 

10/23/2021 7:40 pm  #18


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

BC wrote:

Are there any poor polo players?     It is pretty sad that there were only 14 MBB donors, though I admit to being one of the missing 39 1/2 million GW fans who didn't donate this year.

Even GW doesn’t have a polo team. That was water polo, the sole men’s survivor of truncated dual sports that cut men’s tennis and rowing while retaining the women’s teams. Keep an eye on men’s rowing though. That highly successful team has been aggressively seeking reestablishing itself as a varsity sport. After all, George Washington didn’t cross the Delaware in a sail or motor boat.

 

10/25/2021 10:13 am  #19


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

Poog, I imagine that at the vast majority of schools, men's basketball is the single highest revenue-generating sport or the second highest behind football.  Ticket sales are a part of this but so are broadcast revenues, sponsorships and licensing deals, and postseason tournament revenue which gets split among conference members.  You are correct that certain sports may receive more donations or more consistent support in general but when a school like GW is viewing its athletic department bottom line, men's basketball is responsible for the lion's share of revenue.  (By the way, this discussion is different than determining net income or profitability which factors expenses against revenue.)

 

10/25/2021 1:01 pm  #20


Re: KenPom Preseason Rankings

Gwmayhem wrote:

Poog, I imagine that at the vast majority of schools, men's basketball is the single highest revenue-generating sport or the second highest behind football.  Ticket sales are a part of this but so are broadcast revenues, sponsorships and licensing deals, and postseason tournament revenue which gets split among conference members.  You are correct that certain sports may receive more donations or more consistent support in general but when a school like GW is viewing its athletic department bottom line, men's basketball is responsible for the lion's share of revenue.  (By the way, this discussion is different than determining net income or profitability which factors expenses against revenue.)

Duly noted. Curious how A-10 TV arrangement fills the coffers given the number of GW promo ads that run during down time. Sadly, GW has never been a marketing powerhouse in this area dominated by pro franchises and multiple higher profile college teams. And it hasn’t been for  lack of trying. Return to a winning exciting product certainly would help.

 

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