1 of 1- Gwmayhem
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Fun With Numbers
February is literally hours old and yet this year's team has already played two more games than all of last season. Certainly enough of a sample size to check out some team statistics and see how 2021-22 compares with JC's prior two seasons.
1) Distribution of Minutes..In JC's first two seasons, enough players either left for the team or were lost for long stretches that minutes were being shuffled and reshuffled, making it somewhat difficult to compare minutes on a top to bottom basis. However, one thing that has become very noticeable is the top heavy distribution of minutes.
Year 1: Jack nearly 36 minutes, Battle over 35 minutes, Potter over 32 minutes, JNJ 31 minutes
Year 2: Battle 36.5 minutes, Bishop over 36 minutes, Lindo just under 35 minutes, Moyer just over 32 minutes
Year 3 so far: James 34, Brendan 31, Joe just under 30, Ricky just under 30, Brayon under 24, Hunter just under 21. Noel, Amir and Qwanzi all playing at least 13 minutes
There's no doubting the fact that we are utilizing our bench more this season than in the prior two seasons.
2) Three point shooting has gone from 32.1% on 22.9 attempts per game to 32.4% on 18.5 attempts per game to 30.1% on 20.3 attempts per game. This year's volume has increased while the percentage has decreased.
3) Defending the 3 has gone from 33% to 34.2% to 30% this season. Taking away the three has been a calling card for this defense and it has improved considerably this season to date.
4) Scoring has gone from 65.2 points per game to 68.1 points per game to our current 64.6 points per game. We appear to be playing at a faster pace but are scoring less. We've gone from allowing 70.1 to 72.3 to our current 70.7. This results in scoring margins of -4.9 to -4.2 to our current -6.1.
5) The above should not be surprising when considering that GW is 3-1 in games decided by three points or less, and 2-8 in games decided by 10 points or more.
6) Rebounding margin has gone from -2.3 to -1 to -5.8 this season. Not exactly a secret.
7) Assist to turnover margin has gone from .908 to .832 to .863 this season. Opponents has gone from 1.113 to 1.276 to .977 this season. The positive change this season has been at forcing/causing turnovers which is now at 13.3 per game compared with 10.6 and 11.6 in the first two years.
- GW0509
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Re: Fun With Numbers
#4 is the most important metric to me. The last time we averaged over 70 PPG was the NIT year (although 16-17 was as close as you can get w/o rounding). Historically our best seasons have come when we score 70+ PPG.
Until we can get back to being able to score like that our wins are going to have to be of the ugly variety like we’ve been doing the last few years.
- Free Quebec
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Re: Fun With Numbers
GW0509 wrote:
#4 is the most important metric to me. The last time we averaged over 70 PPG was the NIT year (although 16-17 was as close as you can get w/o rounding). Historically our best seasons have come when we score 70+ PPG.
Until we can get back to being able to score like that our wins are going to have to be of the ugly variety like we’ve been doing the last few years.
We differ on this point. Scoring is not important to me, efficiency is.
While we are scoring more points than last year, it’s only because we are playing faster. Last year, we were 187th in offensive efficiency, scoring 101.6 points per offensive possession. This year, our offense has dropped to a pathetic 296th in the country averaging just 95.9 points per possession.
Literally the only reason we are scoring more is because we are playing faster; but we are scoring 5.7 fewer points per possession.
Beyond that we must lead the nation in number of times we’ve gone 10+ possessions without scoring. I think we also had a steak early in the season, iirc, where we scored exactly 10 points on our first 20 second half possessions in 3 straight games (forgive me if my memory is off but it was something like that).
The worst part is that we are actually better in transition, but in the halfcourt we are BY FAR the worst offensive team in the league. I saw some stats on that I’ll try to find and post.
- DC Native
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Re: Fun With Numbers
I don't have access to the fancy stats, but I would be interested to see how our OOC numbers compare to those in A10 play, as it seems to me that they've been playing much better lately. At this point in the season, the most important thing to me is to show improvement. Improvement (or lack thereof) of the team from JC's first to second to third year is important, but especially considering the high turnover from last year to this year, I'd like to know about in season improvement (or lack thereof) as well. Then, after the season, the key will be to keep our best players from leaving and try to finally build off the improvement from the year before.
- Free Quebec
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Re: Fun With Numbers
I don't have access to the fancy stats, but I would be interested to see how our OOC numbers compare to those in A10 play, as it seems to me that they've been playing much better lately. .
Per KenPom (stats adjusted for quality of opponent), our offense has been worse in A10 play. While we average 95.9 points per 100 possessions overall, we are averaging just 92.6 in conference (13th in offensive efficiency in conf games). We have shot it a bit better, but turned it over a bit more in Conference play.
I don’t have raw stats, so perhaps the numbers are better if you don’t adjust for the quality of the competition.
And I agree that improving is the key. A win over LaSalle would get them to 4-4, hopefully giving some conference before a very tough stretch of the schedule.