Update after Friday.  Richmond beat StL to get to 10-6.

Also, I’m removing Rhode Island since they can’t pass us, just as I’m leaving Bona off since we can’t pass them.  We could tie either of those teams, but we own tie break over URI and Bona owns it over us (by virtue of their win over VCU) so those teams are irrelevant to us.

5)  Richmond 10-6 (Dayton, @Bona).  Big win over StL today technically vaults then to 5th on strange tie-break, though they have a tough remaining schedule and are underdogs in both.   If they lose their last two and we win out, we would overtake them, but that’s an extremely long shot.

6) St Louis 10-6 (@URI, VCU). Adding them because for now it’s technically possible we pass SLU should they lose their last two and we somehow win out - though they are favored in both. Also, while Richmond currently holds the tiebreaker (because SLU is 0-1 vs Dayton and UR hasn’t played them yet) if the two teams remain tied after Dayton beats Richmond, SLU would actually take over the tie break edge.

7) GW 7-7 ( @Mason, Duquesne, @Fordham). Mason game Sunday is more like the battle for Night Time than the battle for the Orange line since the winner will have the inside track for the 7 seed and a night game in the tourney, instead of a noon game.  Should we lose to Mason, we can still get to 7th by beating Duq and Fordham unless multiple upsets happen.

8) Mason 6-7 (GW, @Davidson, @UMASS). Assuming they lose at Davidson, the best they can do is 8-8, which means two wins and we clinch the 7 seed at worst.

9)  Fordham 6-8 (@Davidson, UMASS, @UMASS, GW).  Took care of business over LaSalle.  Assuming they lose at Davidson and we best Duq (no guarantees for either), they would need to sweep UMASS to have a chance to move ahead of us.

10) UMASS 5-9 (VCU, @Fordham, Fordham, @GMU). The two games vs a Fordham loom large.  Going to be tour for them to pass us.

Terrible loss for Dayton at LaSalle.  They really couldn’t afford another Q4 loss when their whole case was to ignore the bad losses in the first two weeks.

5)  Richmond 10-6 (Dayton, @Bona).  Big win over StL yesterday technically vaults then to 5th on strange tie-break, though they have a tough remaining schedule and are underdogs in both.   If they lose their last two and we win out, we would overtake them, but that’s an extremely long shot.

6) St Louis 10-6 (@URI, VCU). Adding them because for now it’s technically possible we pass SLU should they lose their last two and we somehow win out - though they are favored in both. Also, while Richmond currently holds the tiebreaker (because SLU is 0-1 vs Dayton and UR hasn’t played them yet) if the two teams remain tied after Dayton beats Richmond, SLU would actually take over the tie break edge.

7) GW 7-7 ( @Mason, Duquesne, @Fordham). Mason game Sunday is more like the battle for Night Time than the battle for the Orange line since the winner will have the inside track for the 7 seed and a night game in the tourney, instead of a noon game.  Should we lose to Mason, we can still get to 7th by beating Duq and Fordham unless multiple upsets happen.

8) Mason 6-7 (GW, @Davidson, @UMASS). Assuming they lose at Davidson, the best they can do is 8-8, which means two wins and we clinch the 7 seed at worst. I know we are the underdogs, but finding a way to win tomorrow would come close to sealing a spot in the top half.

9)  Fordham 6-8 (@Davidson, UMASS, @UMASS, GW).  Took care of business over LaSalle.  Assuming they lose at Davidson and we best Duq (no guarantees for either), they would need to sweep UMASS to have a chance to move ahead of us.

10) UMASS 5-10 (@Fordham, Fordham, @GMU). Loss to VCU means the magic number for us to lock up a single digit seed is 1 - either a win by us or any loss by UMASS and they can’t catch us.  They are also tied with URI now.

There will be no tiebreak with Fordham because they play 18 games and we play 17.

Trying again because I keep mixing up 17 vs 18 total games.

We can finish no worse than the 9 seed. 

7) Mason 7-7 ( @Davidson, @UMASS). Unless they upset Davidson, we still control our destiny for finishing in the top half.

8) GW 7-8 (Duquesne, @Fordham). Don’t want anyone on our team looking past Duq because anything can happen in the A10.  Beat Duq and the Fordham game could be a big one for us.

9)  Fordham 6-9 (UMASS, @UMASS, GW).  If we beat Duq, the only way Fordham finishes ahead of us is to sweep Umass and beat us to finish 9-9.


10) UMASS 5-10 (@Fordham, Fordham, @GMU). Either Fordham or UMASS will finish with at least 11 losses. 


At this point, we are either the 7, 8, or 9 seed.  We get the 7 by winning one more remaining game than George Mason.  Our opponent will be largely determined by the UMASS-Fordham home and home, though Rhode Island and George Mason are both possible as our first round opponent.

If things hold, we have a 8 vs 9 Fordham path, the winner to play Davidson which looks like the best case scenario for us.

Worst case I think would be the 7-10 line vs George Mason and then VCU.  

Free Quebec wrote:

LA Colonial wrote:

There will be no tiebreak with Fordham because they play 18 games and we play 17.

You are right again. Turns out I suck at this. Damn unbalanced schedules keep tripping me up.

So I guess that means we can’t be any worse than 9 seed because either Umass or Fordham has to have two losses. If Umass wins both, Fordham would have 11 losses. If they split or Fordham sweeps, UMASS would have 11 or 12 losses. And the worst we could finish is 7-10.

you don't suck at this....I am sure you did much better than most of us could.  

It would be nice if some day we can again talk about magic numbers for finishing in the top 4 rather than the 7, 8 or 9 seed.   

Doesn't really matter where we finish as long as we get to the NCAAs or NIT with some regularity, as we
did under Jarvis, Hobbs and Lonergan.
   Barring a very miracle A-10 run to win the tournament, that is not going to happen this year.

Was going to write a longer response to this tiresome taunting of posters here who don't think that everything is always done right all the time, despite our record.
  But I'll make it simple: try more reading and less mocking.
  It's not a good look and not good for this board.
 

If I've done the math right, 9 ncaa's in 26 years under Jarvis, Penders, Hobbs and Lonergan, or about 1/3 of the time.  Add in 5 NIT appearances over that period and you have an NCAA or NIT appearance in slightly above 50% of the seasons over this period.  Am pretty sure this is what should be considered our aspirational goals, and it's certainly not a wild-ass hope for this program after considering that this program has already accomplished this in the past.